Bucs vs Bills Discussion

[Nobody]

To be clear, DVOA bakes in a "who you played" coefficient into their work.

So the Bills are #1 DVOA Defense (Pass Defense as well) despite that. Same with Bucs Offense and Pass Offense.

However, while DVOA (and all rankings that bake in a contextual rider) does have significantly better predictive value because of this, it can't (and wouldn't try) to instantiate the results of #1 vs #1 against each other a single time. So when you're trying to look at how that collision (the Bills excellent and excellently called, defensive-back-reliant MQ/3/2-zone heavy defense vs our offense) might manifest (especially at our place and out of the nasty winter Buffalo weather), looking at who they have played (they've feasted upon utterly awful passing offenses without great OLs and/or QBs...and they played KC in the midst of their spiral) is helpful to get an idea on how things might turn out.

Alternatively, we've been tested enormously on offense. We've played (DVOA Defense ranking):

New England (2)
Dallas (4)
New Orleans (5)
LAR (6)
Indy (11)
Miami (12)
NYG (13)

We've played 4 teams in the top 6 (that will be 5 after this week!).

7 of our 12 games have been against the top 13 defenses in the NFL.


Then you look at how that happened (how we performed, and what we did, against defenses that have similarities to Buffalo - Dallas in particular) and you try to evaluate how we might attack Buffalo and the success we might have.

Bottom line, its going to be a Gronk and Godwin-intensive gameplan (and Brown would be in there if he was playing). If we win intermediate middle and boundary short, break a lot of tackles, sustain drives with grimy plays...we'll have a great chance to win on offense (teams are basically playing in such a way that prevents Mike from dominating 20 to 20). If we can't prevent Allen's off-schedule offense (broken plays and pocket escapes) and we have breakdowns in the secondary...they'll win on offense.

It also wouldn't surprise me to see Jones be some kind of x-factor and get 10 meaningful carries or so if we end up winning.

[Pirate Life]

Ah. So context only matters when discussing Bucs wins/losses, but not Bills wins/losses. Got it.

Wrong. Context should matter for both teams or shouldn't matter for either. It's not a difficult position to understand.

You may want to go back and redo your post on the Bills' defense then, because you're saying who they played shouldn't be held against them. Or you are having trouble communicating/explaining what you really mean.

[King Bootz]

Wrong. Context should matter for both teams or shouldn't matter for either. It's not a difficult position to understand.

You may want to go back and redo your post on the Bills' defense then, because you're saying who they played shouldn't be held against them. Or you are having trouble communicating/explaining what you really mean.

I think the argument is kind of ridiculous. If you can't decipher how good or bad a team is by watching them, find a new sport or stay in your lane. But if you do need to see who they playedn do it across the board. @Dread admitted that he looked into who Buffalo had played because they had the #1 pass defense but not who the Bucs had played despite being the #1 pass offense. Can't objectively do 1 without the other.

[Pirate Life]

You may want to go back and redo your post on the Bills' defense then, because you're saying who they played shouldn't be held against them. Or you are having trouble communicating/explaining what you really mean.

I think the argument is kind of ridiculous. If you can't decipher how good or bad a team is by watching them, find a new sport or stay in your lane. But if you do need to see who they playedn do it across the board. @Dread admitted that he looked into who Buffalo had played because they had the #1 pass defense but not who the Bucs had played despite being the #1 pass offense. Can't objectively do 1 without the other.

You are the one that tried to qualify the teams I listed as dangerous based on either when we played them, because of a first game back or that a kicker missed field goals while calling out Dread for bringing up who the Bills defense played against. So which statement do you want to walk back kiddo?

[King Bootz]

I think the argument is kind of ridiculous. If you can't decipher how good or bad a team is by watching them, find a new sport or stay in your lane. But if you do need to see who they playedn do it across the board. @Dread admitted that he looked into who Buffalo had played because they had the #1 pass defense but not who the Bucs had played despite being the #1 pass offense. Can't objectively do 1 without the other.

You are the one that tried to qualify the teams I listed as dangerous based on either when we played them, because of a first game back or that a kicker missed field goals while calling out Dread for bringing up who the Bills defense played against. So which statement do you want to walk back kiddo?

To me, take teams as they are when you play them. Not who they played. Keep it 1 way or the other. It's really not a difficult position to understand.

[King Bootz]

[mdb1958]

Every week when I see how bad we are hurting I am actually surprised we keep on doing what we got to do.

Also it kinda makes me understand why I'm not getting the scoring results I want.

[Pirate Life]

You are the one that tried to qualify the teams I listed as dangerous based on either when we played them, because of a first game back or that a kicker missed field goals while calling out Dread for bringing up who the Bills defense played against. So which statement do you want to walk back kiddo?

To me, take teams as they are when you play them. Not who they played. Keep it 1 way or the other. It's really not a difficult position to understand.

So you admit you were wrong to say that pointing out who Buffalo faced at the time they played them shouldn't be part of the conversation of their defensive rating?

Because yeah, it's not that difficult to understand except when someone argues both sides at different points to apparently stoke their own ego.

[MJW]

Another week, another "bleah." Another week our injury report is a hell of a lot longer than our opponent's.

I'll be interested to see, if Jensen can't go, if Hainsey can step up.

[Primeminister]

It says something good about this team that we continue to overcome these injuries. I don’t think we can win the title with this many injuries, but I’m impressed how well we have overcome so far.

[MJW]

It says something good about this team that we continue to overcome these injuries. I don’t think we can win the title with this many injuries, but I’m impressed how well we have overcome so far.

Agreed. Our secondary alone. Richard Sherman's Ghost, Andrew Adams, Rashard Robinson, Pierre Desire, Dee Delaney, and Ross Cockrell (better than that bunch, but still) have combined for about 1,200 snaps on the season.

Last year, Cockrell hand 237. Herb Miller had 17, Adams had 23,

[nybf]

As mentioned before the Bills have been pretty fortunate with their schedule and their #1 pass defense ranking has alot to do with who they've played. The only decent passing offense they have faced was KC and that was early in the season.

Too bad the Bucs don't get to play the dolphins, saints, or wft...............

[Grahamburn]

That point has been made. Yes, the Bucs have played, and LOST, to some “bad” teams, but their #1 overall passing offense ranking has been earned against several good pass defenses.

The Bills’ #1 overall passing defense ranking has been paved on a path of abysmal passing offenses.

[Dread]

As mentioned before the Bills have been pretty fortunate with their schedule and their #1 pass defense ranking has alot to do with who they've played. The only decent passing offense they have faced was KC and that was early in the season.

Too bad the Bucs don't get to play the dolphins, saints, or wft...............

What does the Bucs playing those teams have to do with the Bills pass defense ranking?

[King Bootz]

That point has been made. Yes, the Bucs have played, and LOST, to some “bad” teams, but their #1 overall passing offense ranking has been earned against several good pass defenses.

The Bills’ #1 overall passing defense ranking has been paved on a path of abysmal passing offenses.

That's a conclusion drawn up by Bucs fans. And it's not particularly accurate.

[nybf]

Too bad the Bucs don't get to play the dolphins, saints, or wft...............

What does the Bucs playing those teams have to do with the Bills pass defense ranking?

Isn't the argument being made that the Bills pass defense stats are propped up by playing against bad teams?

[King Bootz]

What does the Bucs playing those teams have to do with the Bills pass defense ranking?

Isn't the argument being made that the Bills pass defense stats are propped up by playing against bad teams?

That is the argument @Dread has been trying to make. He went out of his way to look up the teams Buffalo played to come to this conclusion but also admitted that he didn't bother looking up why the Bucs had the #1 pass offense.

[Dread]

What does the Bucs playing those teams have to do with the Bills pass defense ranking?

Isn't the argument being made that the Bills pass defense stats are propped up by playing against bad teams?

Again, what does that have to do with the Bucs? I don't understand the defection being made here when it's mentioned that the Bills pass defense has benifeted from facing a slew of teams who were either not very good passing offenses and/or playing their back-QB.

Is your view that the Bills pass defense stats are unaffected by the opponents they've played?

Here is the OP I made where I pasted a few tweets from Greg Auman on the subject. What did type that is incorrect or you feel needs to be argued against exactly?

As mentioned before the Bills have been pretty fortunate with their schedule and their #1 pass defense ranking has alot to do with who they've played. The only decent passing offense they have faced was KC and that was early in the season.

[Dread]

Isn't the argument being made that the Bills pass defense stats are propped up by playing against bad teams?

That is the argument @Dread has been trying to make. He went out of his way to look up the teams Buffalo played to come to this conclusion but also admitted that he didn't bother looking up why the Bucs had the #1 pass offense.

I literally pasted the tweets from Greg Auman in the OP. I know reading comprehension isn't a strong suit of yours and you like intentionally misread things so you can argue, but you should go re-read the thread.

You are the one who deflected and brought up the Bucs. But I believe @Nobody addressed that for you though and showed how many of the better pass defenses we've already faced.

Fwiw, I was never making an argument, you did that all on your own. My post was an observation from what I had saw from Greg Auman that I decided to share, which triggered you for some reason I don't care to know.

I believe we all agree the Bills have a good pass defense. I will leave it there for you to argue how you wish.

[13F11B]

I think this game will be hard-fought. Buffalo is a good team with talented players. I am unsure how the emotion of the loss to the Patriots will affect them. They could be mad. They could be despondant. The Buccaneers should be ready for MAD AS HELL and be prepared to play as such.

[Nobody]

Here is my point if I can distill it down to a few bullets:

* The Bills have a fantastic defense and particularly a fantastic Pass Defense. Its not a fluke and its not a product of how crap the offenses they've played are. Their tape shows it, they have a great coach who wins at the play-call level consistently, and their back 7 personnel is impeccable in coverage. What they do is not complicated or byzantine. They do what they do (but with sufficient variation and nuance and tendency-breaking to not be predictable) and they do it extremely well.

* The Bucs have a fantastic offense and particularly a fantastic Pass Offense. Its not a fluke and they've done this DESPITE playing the toughest schedule in the league (BY FAR) in terms of both defense generally and Pass defense specifically.


These two realities do absolutely no work when you try to instantiate the collision of these two teams (and their attendant rankings). You can look at their tape (I did and that is the basis for what I wrote in this thread) and try to predict how some of those collisions might manifest on Sunday and how they may be realized in terms of outcomes.

We're going to have to win w/ Gronk and Godwin between the hashes and intermediate (particularly off play-action) and by either calling perimeter Screens when they're in Off/Bail Zone or checking to it in key situations. And we're going to have to run the ball efficiently and be willing to go for it on 4th and short from their 40+ (and trust our defense to make plays against Allen if we don't convert).

If we had Brown, Buffalo would be in trouble. He is unguardable and he specifically exploits the areas that their defense can be had. But we don't have him and we aren't getting over top of them (if we do...huzzah...but don't expect it). We need Gronk and Godwin and Fournette to force missed tackles and we need to be efficient on the ground (maybe Jones gets 10 functional carries this game?).

Personally, I just don't trust our defense against this exact kind of QB. The Allens of the world give us all kinds of trouble for various reasons (we have a tendency to lose rush lane integrity and not get to them when we call Man and they escape and, for whatever reason, our Spies do a terrible job of consistently winning.

So I think we need 23+ to win this game. I expect them to put 3 TDs against us.

[Nano]

It says something good about this team that we continue to overcome these injuries. I don’t think we can win the title with this many injuries, but I’m impressed how well we have overcome so far.

Agreed. Our secondary alone. Richard Sherman's Ghost, Andrew Adams, Rashard Robinson, Pierre Desire, Dee Delaney, and Ross Cockrell (better than that bunch, but still) have combined for about 1,200 snaps on the season.

Last year, Cockrell hand 237. Herb Miller had 17, Adams had 23,

We're so injured this year that even our HC is injured

[13F11B]

Personally, I just don't trust our defense against this exact kind of QB. The Allens of the world give us all kinds of trouble for various reasons (we have a tendency to lose rush lane integrity and not get to them when we call Man and they escape and, for whatever reason, our Spies do a terrible job of consistently winning.

So I think we need 23+ to win this game. I expect them to put 3 TDs against us.

At least Allen is not a backup though. The Buccaneers have really struggled with those over the last eight years or so.

[BLT]

Bootz: I hate the argument 'but look who they played."

Also Bootz:

I'd say Dallas, New England and Indianapolis are dangerous teams, we beat all of them. Can maybe quibble about Indianapolis, but hard to say the other two aren't dangerous teams.

New England when we beat them were 1-2 with a rookie in his 4th game and they had just lost to the Jameis Winston led Saints at home by 2 TDs. They also lost to the Dolphins at home.

Indy doesn't seem that dangerous to me. Once again I don't get the fetish people have with a team that would be out of the playoffs if they started today.

Dallas I'll buy. But even still there are many here who don't believe they are as good as their record indicates so there's that. Plus we had the benefit of Dak Prescott in his 1st action since his ankle injury and 3 missed kicks by Zuerlin. In a 2 point game.

[BLT]

Have never seen someone massacre themselves with contradiction that badly.

Bruh

[BLT]

Another week, another "bleah." Another week our injury report is a hell of a lot longer than our opponent's.

I'll be interested to see, if Jensen can't go, if Hainsey can step up.

We gotta have the longest injury report in history this year. It's been 5+ players longer than any of our opponents every week.

[King Bootz]

Another week, another "bleah." Another week our injury report is a hell of a lot longer than our opponent's.

I'll be interested to see, if Jensen can't go, if Hainsey can step up.

We gotta have the longest injury report in history this year. It's been 5+ players longer than any of our opponents every week.

It's cute that you actually believe this. I advise you to look around the league at the numerous teams who have many of their top players on IR. We haven't lost anyone of relevance for the season. We've been hit hard with nagging injuries but none of them have been season ending.

[BLT]

You do realize that no one said top players, or season ending correct?

It said longest.

Reading comprehension is your friend.

[uscbucsfan]

You do realize that no one said top players, or season ending correct?

It said longest.

Reading comprehension is your friend.

I don't think it's the longest, either.

I believe the Ravens and Packers have more injured players currently, but I understand your point...It's not good. I think we were 3rd or 4th with most players on the injury report/IR this week. There was someone on NFL.com detailing it.

[Selmon Rules]

Got a friend with season tickets so I get to go to this one.... Should be a good game to watch

[Dread]

You do realize that no one said top players, or season ending correct?

It said longest.

Reading comprehension is your friend.

I don't think it's the longest, either.

I believe the Ravens and Packers have more injured players currently, but I understand your point...It's not good. I think we were 3rd or 4th with most players on the injury report/IR this week. There was someone on NFL.com detailing it.

Players on IR don't go on the injury report

(sorry, couldn't resist )

[nybf]

Isn't the argument being made that the Bills pass defense stats are propped up by playing against bad teams?

Again, what does that have to do with the Bucs? I don't understand the defection being made here when it's mentioned that the Bills pass defense has benifeted from facing a slew of teams who were either not very good passing offenses and/or playing their back-QB.

Is your view that the Bills pass defense stats are unaffected by the opponents they've played?

Here is the OP I made where I pasted a few tweets from Greg Auman on the subject. What did type that is incorrect or you feel needs to be argued against exactly?

As mentioned before the Bills have been pretty fortunate with their schedule and their #1 pass defense ranking has alot to do with who they've played. The only decent passing offense they have faced was KC and that was early in the season.

My view is that half the teams/QBs named in those tweets as to why the bills have a good pass defense is that we played the same fucking teams!

[King Bootz]

You do realize that no one said top players, or season ending correct?

It said longest.

Reading comprehension is your friend.

Longest you say?

[Dread]

You do realize that no one said top players, or season ending correct?

It said longest.

Reading comprehension is your friend.

Longest you say?

Yeesh...

That doesn't include how players they've lost to season ending injuries. I'm a closeted Ravens fan since I found myself rooting for them in December when the Bucs were playing for draft position every year.

RB1 - Dobbins
RB2 - Edwards
RB3 - Justice Hill
LT - Stanley
TE2 - Boyle
WR - Boykin

CB1 - Humphrey
CB2 - Peters
FS1 - Elliot
DL starter - Wolfe

[King Bootz]

Longest you say?

Yeesh...

That doesn't include how players they've lost to season ending injuries. I'm a closeted Ravens fan since I found myself rooting for them in December when the Bucs were playing for draft position every year.

RB1 - Dobbins
RB2 - Edwards
RB3 - Justice Hill
LT - Stanley
TE2 - Boyle
WR - Boykin

CB1 - Humphrey
CB2 - Peters
FS1 - Elliot
DL starter - Wolfe

That this team is 8-4 is damn near a miracle.