Dolphins at Bucs Game Analysis

[Nobody]

Going to look at some defensive stuff from this game in particular, but first going to look at some things from the first 5 weeks in total that should be tell.

I already looked at Time to Throw (TtT) and that reveals exactly what you should be seeing:

* For the significant majority of snaps, teams are using the Quick Game against us, getting the ball out well before 2.5 seconds (therefore making it extremely difficult for the Pass Rush to get home on the significant majority of snaps).

What else is happening in the passing game? My guess is that the TtT story also correlates with two other things:

1) Average Depth of Target (ADoT) against us is near the league low.

2) RAC against us is extremely high.


On ADoT:

* 3 of our 5 games have been top 3 in the NFL in lowest ADoT with 2 of those games being #1 lowest.

* QBs are averaging 6.32 ADoT against us. League Median ADoT through 5 weeks?

8.5

League low ADoT through 5 weeks?

6.6

Yeah...

So, teams are throwing the ball well inside the lowest ADoT in the entire NFL against us. The ball is getting out quickly and underneath at an unparalleled level across the league. We aren't defending the quick game.

What does the RAC look like?

199 and 4.7 per and 8 MTF
182 and 5.2 per and 5 MTF
247 and 6.0 per and 2 MTF
169 and 5.1 per and 6 MTF
162 and 6.0 per and 7 MTF

We're giving up ENORMOUS RAC, ENORMOUS RAC PER, and we're (unsurprisingly) missing a ton of tackles. But that doesn't tell the whole story. The tape shows pursuit angle issues and people losing on Screens (getting caught in the wash or just not making plays to blow up point blockers so guys can rally).

Also, each of these teams RAC and RAC PER when not facing us dropped hugely. Against us, the Cowboys (for instance) were at nearly 180 % their average RAC for the other 4 games they played.

++++++++++++++++

3) Finally, 1st down defense. This is where we're losing.

Teams have basically abandoned the run against us and for good reason. Its a losing proposition generally in the NFL, but specifically against us. Teams that pass on 1st down score more points. What are teams doing against us?

71.4 % of the time they're Passing on 1st Down. That is a crazy rate of throwing. ~60ish % Passing on 1st down is what the best teams do. Against us its inflated significantly.

Success Rate on those snaps? 60 %. So 60 % of the time that teams pass against us on 1st down, they're looking at 2nd and 6 or better. We're also giving up a 1st down on 25 % of those 1st down throws (not terrible...but that is because the ADoT they're attacking).


None of these stats are good and they basically tell the story of our defense through almost 30 % of the season.

* Teams are getting the ball out crazy quick on the significant majority of throws. This does two things. (i) it negates our Pass Rush and (ii) it beats our blitz and puts us at a numbers deficit at the 2nd level when rallying to the football on those blitzes (making us vulnerable to the perimeter Screen game).

* Teams are putting out an unprecedented amount of RAC and RAC Per against us (which shouldn't be surprising). This is because of (ii) above and because we're taking bad angles to the football, missing tackles, and our read/react + block destruction on Screens isn't nearly good enough thus far.

* Teams are throwing the ball against us on 1st down at a pretty much historical rate and getting hugely rewarded for it, particularly in terms of Efficiency.

[Nobody]

How do we turn those numbers around?

* Boundary CBs, NCBs, and ILBs have to be much better at tackling (our Missed Tackles and Missed Tackle Rate in our back 7 is brutal through 5 games) + pursuit angles (particularly cohesive pursuit angles with support) period and they need to be better in read & react + block destruction against the Screen game (particularly the perimeter Screen game).

* Devote less assets to stopping the running game. This is a passing league. Play more numbers/gap compromised fronts and less box/overhang defenders (dare people to run the ball instead of the opposite). We like to bail into Cloud looks a lot on defense with rolling CBs back to deep half or 3rd. That gets attacked a lot as well with perimeter quick throws/Screens. Play more orthodox 2 deep and just sparingly sprinkle in the inverted Zones with CBs bailing to deep half.

* Disrupt routes/timing early and play better (simple I know) against route combinations that feature exchanged releases/rubs.

* Blitz less (save it for 3rd and 7+...if you can actually get there...). Drop 8 more often, but don't do it from personnel groupings that sees a lot of JPP dropping (Barrett's coverage tape has actually been very good this year...I'd like him rushing the passer, but he doesn't hurt us at all in coverage...he's a solid Flat or Hook defender). Play Dime with some weird fronts that feature all 3 of our top Edges and let White exchange for Tryon or Shaq now and again.

[ATrain]

So @Nobody , if you, just a random guy on a Bucs forum has those analytics at your disposal and can deduce a clear pattern for why our defense is struggling, then surely Bowles does as well? And if he does, then why the hell hasn't had tried to make any adjustments to that? Or has he but we're still losing in the pass game so there's no clear solution?

Teams are going to continue throwing it quickly vs us even when we're healthy defensively and although it will help having CD3 and SMB back, I don't think that's going to make the quick passing game success rate diminish greatly. Which means that a schematic shift has to occur for us to start winning the battle against the quick passing game, correct?

Bowles is an enigma to me. He can clearly coach but some of his decisions and gameplans are mystifying. One second he's cracking the code vs the Chiefs and embarrasses them, but then he's either unwilling or unable to adapt to what offenses are doing against us and making very mediocre QBs looking great because they can just dink and dunk vs us all day.

And what's with him being obsessed with dropping our best pass rushers, and even Vea, into coverage? Does he believe this is some sneaky smart thing and he's going to trick the offense? Idk, just doesn't seem like a good use of personnel. Sure, mix that in once in a blue moon, but not nearly as much as he's doing.

[Primeminister]

Good breakdown of the offense.

[Primeminister]

@Nobody great breakdown on the schematic issues. I do wonder if Bowles simply doesn’t trust the personnel at this point.

[Nobody]

@ATrain

Well, Bowles defensive mind is orders of magnitude more comprehensive and capable than my own (so there's that).

But what he must be trying to do is the following:

* Play complementary football in the modern NFL. The modern NFL is about getting and stealing as many possessions as possible for your offense. Its not ball control/clock control. Its possession amplification.

* With that in mind, it seems like he's trying to force teams into a large number of plays to score...with the idea being that eventually...someone will get a tip or a PBU that leads to a Pick...or a Strip + Fumble Recovery downfield...or a Strip Sack on a long down and distance play.


The problem with that as its presently manifesting?

What teams are doing against us is extremely low risk and very high EPA. Its about as low risk + high reward as it gets. And its specifically negating our schematic strengths and our strengths personnel-wise while attacking certain players' weaknesses.

And another thing. More plays on defense + more collisions by back 7 defenders. That is going to increase your likelihood of those guys getting banged up.

[Nobody]

@Nobody great breakdown on the schematic issues. I do wonder if Bowles simply doesn’t trust the personnel at this point.

Hard to say.

We have an odd personnel/coaching philosophy match in certain cases.

Dean is a perfect example. He's a very capable Boundary Press Man CB or Press Bail Match Quarters CB (he showed it in college and those snaps in the pros have been plus to good). But he's not a good Off Man or Off Zone CB or as in inside CB and he's absolutely not consistent in read/react against Screens or in his physicality/technique in tackling. But we drafted him to apparently do the majority of the things he's not good at.

And I'm sticking to my guns that this "gotta stop the run first" adage is something that needs to die in the modern NFL. Its just not how the best teams win on defense (and you're seeing that play out with us).

[mdb1958]

Could be they are still teaching them to know what the offense is throwing at you.

Then when it's take down time approaching the play-offs you hit the nitrox button.

[mdb1958]

What was with the blown coverages of Miles Gaskin?

[Dread]

What was with the blown coverages of Miles Gaskin?

It was a zone coverage. The offense ran a post-wheel route concept where the outside WR on the left ran a post which took that CB and the RB ran a wheel route into the vacated space in the zone.

Ideally JPP carries that wheel route better so the RB isn't so wide open. But it was a good play call vs that defense. Anytime you can get JPP or Shaq covering further than 5yds from the LoS it's good for the offense.

[mdb1958]

What was with the blown coverages of Miles Gaskin?

It was a zone coverage. The offense ran a post-wheel route concept where the outside WR on the left ran a post which took that CB and the RB ran a wheel route into the vacated space in the zone.

Ideally JPP carries that wheel route better so the RB isn't so wide open. But it was a good play call vs that defense. Anytime you can get JPP or Shaq covering further than 5yds from the LoS it's good for the offense.

Both TD's were wide open walk in's. Bad look for us.

[Primeminister]

This is a bit much, but…

[Primeminister]

[Backside]

Looks like the same play. Lol

[mdb1958]

I bashed him and the next week he looks better, go figure. Now he just needs to realize he's paid for 17 plus.

[acmillis]

Looks like the same play. Lol

Jensen giving the other OL a massage because he had nothing else to do on that play

[King Bootz]

But Miami is such a good defense....

[Primeminister]

Looks like the same play. Lol

Jensen giving the other OL a massage because he had nothing else to do on that play

The lower back can tighten up at any time. Preventative massage is the best approach.

[ATrain]

@Nobody After 5 weeks of tape review, if you had to do a crude assignment of "blame" for our defensive woes, how much would you assign to injury, bad play by the players, and Bowles/scheme/playcalling?

I'm trying to get an idea of how much realistic improvement we can expect to see once we're healthy on defense.

[Nobody]

@Nobody After 5 weeks of tape review, if you had to do a crude assignment of "blame" for our defensive woes, how much would you assign to injury, bad play by the players, and Bowles/scheme/playcalling?

I'm trying to get an idea of how much realistic improvement we can expect to see once we're healthy on defense.

I don't mean for this to be a copout answer, but its never one thing or mostly one thing.

* Bowles is losing a lot through 5 games (as in % of plays and key situations). We have not adjusted (at scale) to the realities that (a) people just are not running against us (and especially on 1st down) and (b) they're almost entirely replacing the run game Bill Walsh style (with the Quick Game) and with the perimeter Screen game. This is creating scenarios where teams are winning on 1st down against our defense at an alarming rates. Modern NFL offenses want to (i) win on 1st down and (ii) just plain not see as many 3rd downs as you can (which feeds back from/into i) and (iii) will be going for it on 4th and short the abundance of times (which, again, feeds back from/into i).

We're losing on 1st down at such a high rate because we're schematically losing at a high rate. This isn't the only thing that is happening (more on that below), but its the primary contributor in my opinion.

* Some of (who should be) our key contributors have not had a good 1st 5 games. But, in some cases, they're also not being featured in ways that amplify their skillset and mitigate their weaknesses.

* We're just not tackling well in the open field and/or rallying cohesively to the football (pursuit angles generally and spill/force defenders attacking appropriately so they cohere) and, outside of LVD and Whitehead and CD3 in some cases, our read/react + block destruction against the Screen game has been awful.


All of this is leading to a crazy 1st down efficiency against us, crazy completion %, crazy RAC. It would be one thing if teams were doing this with volatile plays that would lead to a ton of Turnovers at a large distribution level...but they're not. These are low-risk plays that are routinely turning high reward. These aren't hold the ball for 2.5 second + in order to attack a downfield concept off of play-action. These are "ball is out inside of 1.75 seconds and either pitch and catch to a 6 yard Hitch/Whip/Rub Combo and 1 or more Zone defenders are covering grass or to a perimeter Bubble/Tunnel/Smoke play with numbers parity or advantage and against Off defenders who aren't reading/reacting and destroying blocks and making plays." Low risk. High return. High efficiency.

[Snake]

Bucs sell out against the run
Teams stop running
Teams get advantage in the pass game

Hmm

[kaimaru]

Bucs sell out against the run
Teams stop running
Teams get advantage in the pass game

Hmm

Drop everyone but Gholston, Suh, and Vea in coverage. Maybe they will finally run on us.

[Nobody]

Its not just the way we devote assets to the run. Its also the way we defend Empty.



Rams are in the RZ and go 3 x 2.

We have 3 iDL in? Why? Why don't we have some kind of DB-heavy subpackage for this w/ a ton of coverage players and speedy pass rush?

You're not playing Cover 3 Zone at that point of the field and you're probably not playing standard 2 Zone. Against the Doubles side, you're playing Man or Match Quarters or 2 Read. We've got 3 defenders on the doubles side w/ the boundary CB and the LB both playing inside leverage (with the boundary CB also Off).

Unless we're running some kind of inverted trap coverage here (not likely), there is no way that (a) the boundary vert isn't carried by the boundary CB and (b) no way that the Quickout that the slot is running is going to be able to be covered because of the inside leverage playing LB (who will have to cover this route).

Its basically a near 100 % guaranteed pitch-and-catch for 6ish (if the tackle is made) pre-snap. Everything about the defense of this is a problem.

We're just doing a lot of things that make it easy for offenses to be efficient and sustain drives with minimal risk (whether it be personnel groupings/matchups, coverage player leverage, play-calling, over-committing assets to defend the run, struggling w/ read/react or fits or tackling).

[Cheb]

Bowles calls his defenses heavy. We have too many bodies and pounds in the box, waiting to pounce on the occasional run but mostly those runs never come. And because of that emphasis on winning with numbers and size in the box, we sacrifice on the outside and become unable to match speed-on-speed on the perimeter. In the same way, we don't match numbers on the perimeter either.

Thus it has been relatively easy for every offense we play to get the ball out in space to their perimeter players quickly because of those numbers disadvantages. Our corners play soft and deep likely in part because of that parity in numbers.

I understand wanting to stop the run. But responding to five-wide formations on third-and-long with base nickel personnel, which forces JPP and/or Shaq to drop and cover for extended periods of time, is not a recipe for consistent success.

Bowles' loyalty to dogmatic principle is the downfall of our pass defense.

[MJW]

Bowles calls his defenses heavy. We have too many bodies and pounds in the box, waiting to pounce on the occasional run but mostly those runs never come. And because of that emphasis on winning with numbers and size in the box, we sacrifice on the outside and become unable to match speed-on-speed on the perimeter. In the same way, we don't match numbers on the perimeter either.

Thus it has been relatively easy for every offense we play to get the ball out in space to their perimeter players quickly because of those numbers disadvantages. Our corners play soft and deep likely in part because of that parity in numbers.

I understand wanting to stop the run. But responding to five-wide formations on third-and-long with base nickel personnel, which forces JPP and/or Shaq to drop and cover for extended periods of time, is not a recipe for consistent success.

Bowles' loyalty to dogmatic principle is the downfall of our pass defense.

I lack the technical chops to express this sentiment as well as Cheb did, but he nailed it.

We stop the run at all costs. And we beg - BEG - teams to throw high-percentage passes to the boundaries. With teams that can make hay on those plays - like the Cowboys and Rams - they eat. Teams without that athleticism, like the Falcons and Dolphins, we crush.

The bad news is, the Cardinals and the Rams (as we saw) exploit this DAMN well. It's going to be a problem in January.

[ATrain]

@Nobody After 5 weeks of tape review, if you had to do a crude assignment of "blame" for our defensive woes, how much would you assign to injury, bad play by the players, and Bowles/scheme/playcalling?

I'm trying to get an idea of how much realistic improvement we can expect to see once we're healthy on defense.

I don't mean for this to be a copout answer, but its never one thing or mostly one thing.

* Bowles is losing a lot through 5 games (as in % of plays and key situations). We have not adjusted (at scale) to the realities that (a) people just are not running against us (and especially on 1st down) and (b) they're almost entirely replacing the run game Bill Walsh style (with the Quick Game) and with the perimeter Screen game. This is creating scenarios where teams are winning on 1st down against our defense at an alarming rates. Modern NFL offenses want to (i) win on 1st down and (ii) just plain not see as many 3rd downs as you can (which feeds back from/into i) and (iii) will be going for it on 4th and short the abundance of times (which, again, feeds back from/into i).

We're losing on 1st down at such a high rate because we're schematically losing at a high rate. This isn't the only thing that is happening (more on that below), but its the primary contributor in my opinion.

* Some of (who should be) our key contributors have not had a good 1st 5 games. But, in some cases, they're also not being featured in ways that amplify their skillset and mitigate their weaknesses.

* We're just not tackling well in the open field and/or rallying cohesively to the football (pursuit angles generally and spill/force defenders attacking appropriately so they cohere) and, outside of LVD and Whitehead and CD3 in some cases, our read/react + block destruction against the Screen game has been awful.


All of this is leading to a crazy 1st down efficiency against us, crazy completion %, crazy RAC. It would be one thing if teams were doing this with volatile plays that would lead to a ton of Turnovers at a large distribution level...but they're not. These are low-risk plays that are routinely turning high reward. These aren't hold the ball for 2.5 second + in order to attack a downfield concept off of play-action. These are "ball is out inside of 1.75 seconds and either pitch and catch to a 6 yard Hitch/Whip/Rub Combo and 1 or more Zone defenders are covering grass or to a perimeter Bubble/Tunnel/Smoke play with numbers parity or advantage and against Off defenders who aren't reading/reacting and destroying blocks and making plays." Low risk. High return. High efficiency.

Bolded is why I question how much the defense is really going to improve once we're healthy. Is it just ego that Bowles refuses to adjust? I wonder if he's so scared to lose our position as the #1 rush defense in the league that he's unwilling to sacrifice some run D in order to attack 2021 offenses effectively.

And let's be honest for a bit, yes it's cool we stop the run well, but in the modern age, isn't that kind of like being the tallest midget?

Another question, how different is the defense we're running now vs what we ran vs the Chiefs? If we can render the Chiefs useless with that gameplan, can't we stop damn near everyone with it? Add wrinkles and disguise some stuff sure, but our Chiefs gameplan should just be the default.

[Nobody]

I don't mean for this to be a copout answer, but its never one thing or mostly one thing.

* Bowles is losing a lot through 5 games (as in % of plays and key situations). We have not adjusted (at scale) to the realities that (a) people just are not running against us (and especially on 1st down) and (b) they're almost entirely replacing the run game Bill Walsh style (with the Quick Game) and with the perimeter Screen game. This is creating scenarios where teams are winning on 1st down against our defense at an alarming rates. Modern NFL offenses want to (i) win on 1st down and (ii) just plain not see as many 3rd downs as you can (which feeds back from/into i) and (iii) will be going for it on 4th and short the abundance of times (which, again, feeds back from/into i).

We're losing on 1st down at such a high rate because we're schematically losing at a high rate. This isn't the only thing that is happening (more on that below), but its the primary contributor in my opinion.

* Some of (who should be) our key contributors have not had a good 1st 5 games. But, in some cases, they're also not being featured in ways that amplify their skillset and mitigate their weaknesses.

* We're just not tackling well in the open field and/or rallying cohesively to the football (pursuit angles generally and spill/force defenders attacking appropriately so they cohere) and, outside of LVD and Whitehead and CD3 in some cases, our read/react + block destruction against the Screen game has been awful.


All of this is leading to a crazy 1st down efficiency against us, crazy completion %, crazy RAC. It would be one thing if teams were doing this with volatile plays that would lead to a ton of Turnovers at a large distribution level...but they're not. These are low-risk plays that are routinely turning high reward. These aren't hold the ball for 2.5 second + in order to attack a downfield concept off of play-action. These are "ball is out inside of 1.75 seconds and either pitch and catch to a 6 yard Hitch/Whip/Rub Combo and 1 or more Zone defenders are covering grass or to a perimeter Bubble/Tunnel/Smoke play with numbers parity or advantage and against Off defenders who aren't reading/reacting and destroying blocks and making plays." Low risk. High return. High efficiency.

Bolded is why I question how much the defense is really going to improve once we're healthy. Is it just ego that Bowles refuses to adjust? I wonder if he's so scared to lose our position as the #1 rush defense in the league that he's unwilling to sacrifice some run D in order to attack 2021 offenses effectively.

And let's be honest for a bit, yes it's cool we stop the run well, but in the modern age, isn't that kind of like being the tallest midget?

Another question, how different is the defense we're running now vs what we ran vs the Chiefs? If we can render the Chiefs useless with that gameplan, can't we stop damn near everyone with it? Add wrinkles and disguise some stuff sure, but our Chiefs gameplan should just be the default.

No, this is not the gameplan or play calling that led to the Chiefs throttling.

There you saw:

* An abundance of 2 deep.

* A healthy mix of Man Under and 1 Man Free and variations of 2 Zone.

* An abundance of flat out double covering Hill and Kelse.

* An abundance of challenging at the line of scrimmages for route disruption generally (particularly Hill and Kelse with help over top or inside leverage).

* Tactical deployment of Big Dime (3 S, 3 CB) to match personnel.


———

I won’t weigh on on the psychology of Bowles. I’ve said a lot about his proclivities in the past. I’m a fan, but he does some things that are frustrating. He often has this personal/scheme mismatch drift that happens (eg we draft Press Man CBs yet play a ton of Off Zone…particularly on early downs). His gameplanning is either brilliant or snake eyes, but his 2nd half adjustments are top notch (often going to what you expected of him to start the game in the 2nd half). Perhaps that’s by design because the 2nd half is more important than the first (some 4d Chess if so).

[ATrain]

Bolded is why I question how much the defense is really going to improve once we're healthy. Is it just ego that Bowles refuses to adjust? I wonder if he's so scared to lose our position as the #1 rush defense in the league that he's unwilling to sacrifice some run D in order to attack 2021 offenses effectively.

And let's be honest for a bit, yes it's cool we stop the run well, but in the modern age, isn't that kind of like being the tallest midget?

Another question, how different is the defense we're running now vs what we ran vs the Chiefs? If we can render the Chiefs useless with that gameplan, can't we stop damn near everyone with it? Add wrinkles and disguise some stuff sure, but our Chiefs gameplan should just be the default.

No, this is not the gameplan or play calling that led to the Chiefs throttling.

There you saw:

* An abundance of 2 deep.

* A healthy mix of Man Under and 1 Man Free and variations of 2 Zone.

* An abundance of flat out double covering Hill and Kelse.

* An abundance of challenging at the line of scrimmages for route disruption generally (particularly Hill and Kelse with help over top or inside leverage).

* Tactical deployment of Big Dime (3 S, 3 CB) to match personnel.


———

I won’t weigh on on the psychology of Bowles. I’ve said a lot about his proclivities in the past. I’m a fan, but he does some things that are frustrating. He often has this personal/scheme mismatch drift that happens (eg we draft Press Man CBs yet play a ton of Off Zone…particularly on early downs). His gameplanning is either brilliant or snake eyes, but his 2nd half adjustments are top notch (often going to what you expected of him to start the game in the 2nd half). Perhaps that’s by design because the 2nd half is more important than the first (some 4d Chess if so).

I'm at a loss then as to why we abandoned a strategy that can clearly apply to a bulk of the dangerous offenses in the league. Maybe he's waiting until deeper in the season to start bringing out all the stops.

Secondary question for anyone that wants to answer: Is Brady still in his prime? Look at this throw here
That might be the type of throw that would really demonstrate if Brady has lost anything in terms of arm strength. Back deep from shotgun, across and down the field to the sideline. I wonder if that ball gets there quicker 10 years ago or if that is still peak Brady arm strength.

[Nobody]

@ATrain

When we were courting Brady there was a national narrative that Father Time had caught up with him and that he’d lost arm strength sufficient to take him down a few notches (from GOAT to south of Elite to reliable Game Manager and that was all we needed).

I made the same case I always do regarding arm strength; like 40 yard dash, on the whole, it’s the most overrated and least predictive trait out there. I also made the case then (examining several games worth of tape and his advanced metrics), that there was no evidence that Brady had lost arm strength and certain “analysts”/media folks were misinterpreting play/events and that Brady still had all the arm strength you want and then some (there were tons of throws on his tape…like Deep Comeback from opposite hash). Add his unparalleled anticipatory throw capability + presnap read capability + ball placement that only ARod could match and he’s still very much Elite.

I stand by that.