Bucs vs Pats Game Analysis

[Primeminister]

Ok we won, but not everyone is happy about how we looked.

What went right? What went wrong?

What can we expect from this secondary going forward?

Is the offense broken?

Was this a coming out party for JTS?

These are some of the questions fans would like to know. If you have some analysis to add please do. If you’ve found good analysis from someone else share their work. Let’s learn, people!!

[Primeminister]

[Defense5599]

Those numbers remind me a lot of the Dolphins in the 80s and early 90s with Dan Marino at QB. They'll win games but they won't go far in the playoffs.

[Primeminister]

Those numbers remind me a lot of the Dolphins in the 80s and early 90s with Dan Marino at QB. They'll win games but they won't go far in the playoffs.

This won’t continue. The secondary is depleted to the point of not being the same team at all. Once players or back and/or those replacements play better we will see that percentage plummet.

[AJPG]

We moved up two spots in rushing. Yaaaay!

[Pirate Life]

We moved up two spots in rushing. Yaaaay!

It's our dual threat QB. Brady had more yards on the ground than the entire NE team on his own!

[Nobody]

Game was in a downpour. Teasing out Passing offense and defense signal isn’t going to yield a whole lot.

I’m mostly interested in what Bowles called. Looked to be a ton of overload blitz and Stunt + 2nd level blitz which is perfect for this game.

After I look into that I’ll throw out what I find.

Like I said in general chat, this sort of back 5/6 clustereff of personnel loss will force Bowles to call games extremely well (and aggressively). I have a funny feeling that we may be surprised at how well the defense plays because of that.

[Grahamburn]

I’m all for aggressive defensive play calling, which worked well in some cases against the Pats. It also yielded 19 straight completions.

[AJPG]

Game was in a downpour. Teasing out Passing offense and defense signal isn’t going to yield a whole lot.

I’m mostly interested in what Bowles called. Looked to be a ton of overload blitz and Stunt + 2nd level blitz which is perfect for this game.

After I look into that I’ll throw out what I find.

Like I said in general chat, this sort of back 5/6 clustereff of personnel loss will force Bowles to call games extremely well (and aggressively). I have a funny feeling that we may be surprised at how well the defense plays because of that.

Although Bucs weren't successful in stopping many of Mac's passes, looking at this chart, it looks like he concentrated in the middle of the field, which is where he also had the most incompletions. Was this part of Bowles strategy to flood the middle? This passing pattern is very similar to his previous three weeks.

pass-chart_JON586540_2021-REG-4_1633319040754.jpeg

[Nobody]

I’m all for aggressive defensive play calling, which worked well in some cases against the Pats. It also yielded 19 straight completions.

That is the problem with that approach in a downpour.

* Brady missed 4 throws badly (3 of which should have been big gains).

* He put a back shoulder Fade on Mike where Mike either couldn't stop and make the play or there was miscommunication.

* He put a ball on Brate for a big catch and run that Brate dropped.

* He put two dimes on Brown at the end (one he failed to track - lights? - and the other he just dropped).

The downfield passing game was a mess (that is 8 throws that should have been completed for huge gains/TDs).

[Nobody]

Game was in a downpour. Teasing out Passing offense and defense signal isn’t going to yield a whole lot.

I’m mostly interested in what Bowles called. Looked to be a ton of overload blitz and Stunt + 2nd level blitz which is perfect for this game.

After I look into that I’ll throw out what I find.

Like I said in general chat, this sort of back 5/6 clustereff of personnel loss will force Bowles to call games extremely well (and aggressively). I have a funny feeling that we may be surprised at how well the defense plays because of that.

Although Bucs weren't successful in stopping many of Mac's passes, looking at this chart, it looks like he concentrated in the middle of the field, which is where he also had the most incompletions. Was this part of Bowles strategy to flood the middle? This passing pattern is very similar to his previous three weeks.

pass-chart_JON586540_2021-REG-4_1633319040754.jpeg

Overwhelmingly this spread was a function of the following things:

* Overload blitz/blitz + stunt/Barret or Tryon Pass Rush Wins.

* Absolute downpour incentivizing checkdowns (they were specifically working layers/high-lows over the middle...Pats staple).

* We played about 67 % Zone coverage behind those overload blitzes/blitz + stunt. The Zone coverage was actually very solid (but, again, this is condition-context dependent...you're not challenged as much in a downpour with a lot of blitzes causing the ball to come out quickly to checkdowns). Winfield, Cockrell, Davis all had very good games and Sherman gave up a lot of catches and had the call go against him but, given the circumstances, I'll call his play a win.

* We missed some tackles (surely, in part, due to the conditions) and had some pursuit angle issues.

[Primeminister]

[Primeminister]

[Primeminister]

[King Bootz]

I gave this a like because these guys correctly identified the play of the game.

That said, my GOD! Their incessant whining about how the officiating was unfair only for the Bucs is too much.

[Primeminister]

I gave this a like because these guys correctly identified the play of the game.

That said, my GOD! Their incessant whining about how the officiating was unfair only for the Bucs is too much.

Thank you! The officiating was utter trash, but that was too much bitching.

[Nobody]

Like I said prior, I don't think there is any point in evaluating the passing game in this one. It was a complete downpour. The idea that the passing game is going to be remotely sharp (particularly intermediate + throws) in a complete downpour is a difficult position to take seriously.

The only real bad play that I saw in the review of the tape was the high/low read over the middle where Brady threw to Mike very early in the game. He had an under that was open because of Mike's route. He should have come off of Mike and thrown that. The throw to Mike there was a Winston-like play.

As far as the Deep Hook the guy above was analyzing. That wasn't a misread. Mike is "open" against an outside leverage defender with no under support. If the ball is out, on time, and the throw is low and well to the inside (he had room all the way to the hash), its a relatively straight-forward hook-up (bare minimum, the ball placement can put the throw out of danger and give only Mike the ability to make a play on it). Brady makes that connection routinely if it isn't a downpour.

++++++++++++

As far as the officiating goes, it was awful for both teams. Truly terrible. There were so many calls missed both ways that its difficult to say what the game would have looked like with zero officiating errors.

*****************

As far as defense goes, Tryon and Barrett both had fantastic games. If I do any breakdowns (probably not given its Friday), that is where it will be.

Tryon's Win Rate wasn't as good as Shaq's (Shaq won on around 20 % of his snaps...which is excellent), but his Win Rate was solid and when he did Win it was the kind of devastating win that wrecked a play.

[Backside]

First and last sack he’s given up was the play he got flipped by Mack. One year ago.

[Primeminister]

First and last sack he’s given up was the play he got flipped by Mack. One year ago.

This kid is building a legendary career. He has a long way to go, but he has a great start

[Snake]

I’m so glad Wirfs isn’t wasting his career on a typical Yucks team.

[Nobody]

Wirfs has been incredible (the tape doesn't lie).

But don't think that having Tom Brady as his QB isn't a huge part of this.

Imagine being Andrew Thomas or Mekhi Becton and playing OT for Sackfests R Us Hold the Ball and "What is Pre-Snap Mental Processing?" NYG and NYJ QBed teams.

The Pressure Numbers given up and the Time to Throw numbers by the Bucs OL under JW vs TB are staggeringly different. Sacks are a QB stat (and a huge amount of Pressures are as well).

[ATrain]

Wirfs has been incredible (the tape doesn't lie).

But don't think that having Tom Brady as his QB isn't a huge part of this.

Imagine being Andrew Thomas or Mekhi Becton and playing OT for Sackfests R Us Hold the Ball and "What is Pre-Snap Mental Processing?" NYG and NYJ QBed teams.

The Pressure Numbers given up and the Time to Throw numbers by the Bucs OL under JW vs TB are staggeringly different. Sacks are a QB stat (and a huge amount of Pressures are as well).

Yeap. I think Brady pushes the lineman he plays with up a tier just because he gets rid of he ball so quickly. He can make a below average lineman look average, average look good, etc.

Hell we all thought Smith was going to get Brady killed but for the most part he's looked really solid, and I think a lot of that has to do with Brady.

I'm not sure where Brady would rank but he has to be hear the top of fastest average snap to throw timing.

[Nobody]

Wirfs has been incredible (the tape doesn't lie).

But don't think that having Tom Brady as his QB isn't a huge part of this.

Imagine being Andrew Thomas or Mekhi Becton and playing OT for Sackfests R Us Hold the Ball and "What is Pre-Snap Mental Processing?" NYG and NYJ QBed teams.

The Pressure Numbers given up and the Time to Throw numbers by the Bucs OL under JW vs TB are staggeringly different. Sacks are a QB stat (and a huge amount of Pressures are as well).

Yeap. I think Brady pushes the lineman he plays with up a tier just because he gets rid of he ball so quickly. He can make a below average lineman look average, average look good, etc.

Hell we all thought Smith was going to get Brady killed but for the most part he's looked really solid, and I think a lot of that has to do with Brady.

I'm not sure where Brady would rank but he has to be hear the top of fastest average snap to throw timing.

# 2 in the NFL.

And that is with the most vertical offense (concept-wise) in the entire NFL.

Let that sink in.

[Primeminister]

Yeap. I think Brady pushes the lineman he plays with up a tier just because he gets rid of he ball so quickly. He can make a below average lineman look average, average look good, etc.

Hell we all thought Smith was going to get Brady killed but for the most part he's looked really solid, and I think a lot of that has to do with Brady.

I'm not sure where Brady would rank but he has to be hear the top of fastest average snap to throw timing.

# 2 in the NFL.

And that is with the most vertical offense (concept-wise) in the entire NFL.

Let that sink in.

That goes against all conventional wisdom.