How do they do it? Howie Roseman

[__Chef__]

The Superbowl Champs are led by one of the Best GMs in the league. How has he managed to build such a dominant roster in a league designed to dissuade dominant franchises from remaining king of the hill?

Ignoring Coach selection and Free Agent acquisition, let's focus on how he manages his drafts:

Draft Weekend Trades

► Show Spoiler

Eagles receive a 2025 first-round pick (No. 31 overall, LB Jihaad Campbell) from the Kansas City Chiefs in exchange for a 2025 first-round pick (No. 32 overall, T Josh Simmons) and a 2025 fifth-round pick (No. 164 overall).

Eagles receive a 2025 third-round pick (No. 101 overall) and a 2026 fifth-round pick from the Atlanta Falcons in exchange for a 2025 third-round pick (No. 96 overall, S Xavier Watts).

Eagles receive a 2025 fourth-round pick (No. 111 overall, DT Ty Robinson), a 2025 fourth-round pick (No. 130 overall), and a 2025 sixth-round pick (No. 191 overall, T Myles Hinton) from the Denver Broncos in exchange for a 2025 third-round pick (No. 101 overall, DE Sai'Vion Jones) and a 2025 fourth-round pick (No. 134 overall, LB Que Robinson).

Eagles receive a 2025 fifth-round pick (No. 145 overall, CB Mac McWilliams) and a 2025 sixth-round pick (No. 207 overall, T Cameron Williams) from the New York Jets in exchange for a 2025 fourth-round pick (No. 130 overall, S Malachi Moore).

Eagles receive a pair of 2025 sixth-round picks (No. 181 overall, QB Kyle McCord, and No. 209 overall, OLB Antwaun Powell-Ryland) from the Los Angeles Chargers in exchange for a 2025 fifth-round pick (No. 165 overall, TE Oronde Gadsden II).

That's a lot of maneuvering on the draft board ... Net Result?

Round 1, Pick 31: LB Jihaad Campbell, Alabama
Round 2, Pick 64: S Andrew Mukuba, Texas
Round 4, Pick 111: DT Ty Robinson, Nebraska
Round 5, Pick 145: CB Mac McWilliams, Central Florida
Round 5, Pick 161: LB Smael Mondon, Georgia
Round 5, Pick 168: C/G Drew Kendall, Boston College
Round 6, Pick 181: QB Kyle McCord, Syracuse
Round 6, Pick 191: T Myles Hinton, Michigan
Round 6, Pick 207: T Cameron Williams, Texas
Round 6, Pick 209: OLB Antwaun Powell-Ryland, Virginia Tech

Quite a load after all those trades ... how did last year look?

► Show Spoiler

Second Round – No. 50 overall (from NO) – Traded to Washington on Friday, April 26
Second Round – No. 53 overall – Traded to Washington on Friday, April 26

Third Round – No. 78 overall (from WAS) – Traded to Houston on Friday, April 26
Third Round – No. 86 overall (from HOU) – Traded to San Francisco on Friday, April 26

Fourth Round – No. 120 overall (from PIT) - Traded to Miami on Saturday, April 27
Fourth Round – No. 123 overall (from HOU) – Traded to Houston on Saturday, April 27
Fourth Round – No. 132 overall (from SF) – Traded to Detroit on Saturday, April 27

Fifth Round – No. 161 overall (from TB) – Traded to Washington on Friday, April 26
Fifth Round – No. 164 overall (from DET) – Traded to Indianapolis on Saturday, April 27
Fifth Round – No. 171 overall (Compensatory Pick) – Traded to New York Jets on Saturday, April 27

Sixth Round – No. 201 overall – Traded to Indianapolis on Saturday, April 27
Sixth Round – No. 210 overall (Compensatory Pick) – Traded to Detroit on Saturday, April 27

Net Result?

Round 1 – No. 22 overall – Quinyon Mitchell, CB (Toledo)
Round 2 – No. 40 overall – Cooper DeJean, DB (Iowa)
Round 3 – No. 94 overall (from SF) – **Jalyx Hunt, OLB (Houston Christian)**
Round 4 – No. 127 overall (from HOU) – **Will Shipley, RB (Clemson)**
Round 5 – No. 152 overall (from WAS) – **Ainias Smith, WR, (Texas A&M)**
Round 5 – No. 155 overall (from IND) – **Jeremiah Trotter Jr., LB (Clemson)**
Round 5 – No. 172 overall (Compensatory Pick) – **Trevor Keegan, G (Michigan)**
Round 6 – No. 185 overall – **Johnny Wilson, WR (Florida State)**
Round 6 – No. 190 overall – **Dylan McMahon, G/C (NC State)**

The year before?

► Show Spoiler

• Eagles traded a 2023 third-round pick, No. 94 overall, in the 2023 NFL Draft and a 2024 fifth-round pick to the Cardinals for a 2023 third-round pick, No. 66 overall. Tap here for the story.

• Eagles traded a 2023 first-round pick, No. 10 overall, and a 2024 fourth-round pick to the Bears to move up to No. 9 overall in 2023.

Friday Night News:

• Eagles traded a 2023 second-round pick (No. 62 overall) to the Texans for a 2023 third-round pick (No. 65 overall), a 2023 sixth-round pick (No. 188 overall), and a 2023 seventh-round pick (No. 230 overall).

Saturday Afternoon News:

• Eagles traded a 2024 third-round pick to the Texans for a 2024 fourth-round pick (No. 105 overall) in the 2023 NFL Draft.

• Eagles acquire RB D'Andre Swift and a 2023 7th-round pick (#249 overall) from the Lions in exchange for a 2025 4th-round pick and 2023 7th-round pick (#219 overall).

• Eagles traded No. 230 and No. 248 to the Texans for No. 191.

• Eagles traded No. 191 to the Buccaneers for a 2024 fifth-round pick.

Net Result?

Round 1, No. 9 overall – DT Jalen Carter (From Carolina Panthers through Chicago Bears)
Round 1, No. 30 overall – LB Nolan Smith
Round 3, No. 65 overall – OL Tyler Steen (From Houston Texans)
Round 3, No. 66 overall – S Sydney Brown (From Arizona Cardinals)
Round 4, No. 105 overall – CB Kelee Ringo (From Houston Texans)
Round 6, No. 188 overall – QB Tanner McKee (From Houston Texans)
Round 7, No. 249 overall – DT Moro Ojomo (From Detroit Lions)

Draftee Retention Rates Over Time

Rnd.	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
1	99.70%	93.50%	83.90%	77.40%	71.00%
2	96.80%	96.10%	83.90%	74.20%	41.90%
3	96.90%	75.10%	62.50%	37.50%	18.80%
4	91.40%	74.30%	54.30%	34.30%	17.20%
5	81.10%	56.80%	37.80%	24.30%	16.20%
6	70.20%	57.50%	35.30%	20.90%	10.60%
7	58.30%	45.80%	31.30%	21.70%	16.70%

It's interesting that the retention rates by year 5 are about the same from the 3rd round down to the 7th.
I think this is why the Eagles are shifting toward this strategy of heavier emphasis on mid-late round draftees.

I also find it interesting (envious) that the number 1 Defense last year devoted their first 5 picks to defense.

[Zarni]

Good post


I'm assuming the retention rates are for the league in general right?

[__Chef__]

Good post


I'm assuming the retention rates are for the league in general right?

Yes league-wide.

[Doctor]

These things are so streaky it's hard to believe anyone ever truly "cracks it". I also feel so much depends on darn luck of the draft class and what you have that year. Top heavy but out of the top 15? Sucks. Thick in the middle draft like this one? Nice. Got the #1 pick in a class that's just wack? Tough.

I'll definitely agree that Howie is absolutely feeling it and got right now. But this is also the same man that outbid the Broncos for a trade vetoing Russ. It comes and it goes. Great post.

[Grahamburn]

They took Jaelon Raegor over Justin Jefferson.

[acmillis]

Howie has as many SB rings as Licht does as a GM...

[__Chef__]

Howie has as many SB rings as Licht does as a GM...

2017 and 2024 seasons were Roseman's victories while losing one in 2022.

Licht being one of the staff members in 2001's Brady SB victory doesn't hit quite the same as when he was able to sign Brady 20 years later and build the dream team.

[CannonFire]

The reason why Roseman is better than everyone else at the draft, is because he isn't scared. If there's 3 guys he likes, he doesn't take the best one and be happy. He's willing to move up, down, and where ever and lose one of those 3... even the best one, if it means he can get 2. Worst case he misses on both. Break even scenario is that he hits on 1, which is the best case if he only got 1 of the 3. Best case scenario is that he hits on both. That puts him at a 33% chance of failure. Other GM's would rather play it safe and get their top guy. The problem with that is that the draft has an inherent 60% bust rate. The laws of averages say that the more picks you have, the better off you are. The Eagles almost always leave each draft with very few of the picks they started with and generally enter the following year with more picks than they should have.

Roseman also never has a draft like this.

[Bootz]

Howie has as many SB rings as Licht does as a GM...

False

[__Chef__]

The reason why Roseman is better than everyone else at the draft, is because he isn't scared. If there's 3 guys he likes, he doesn't take the best one and be happy. He's willing to move up, down, and where ever and lose one of those 3... even the best one, if it means he can get 2. Worst case he misses on both. Break even scenario is that he hits on 1, which is the best case if he only got 1 of the 3. Best case scenario is that he hits on both. That puts him at a 33% chance of failure. Other GM's would rather play it safe and get their top guy. The problem with that is that the draft has an inherent 60% bust rate. The laws of averages say that the more picks you have, the better off you are. The Eagles almost always leave each draft with very few of the picks they started with and generally enter the following year with more picks than they should have.

Roseman also never has a draft like this.

As explained in the OP, they have shifted strategies recently. They are loading up on mid-late rounders. Most draft picks will bust, but by dedicating more picks in these rounds, they increase their chances of finding diamonds in the rough, and when they hit on them, they save considerably in the ever more challenging salary cap. By Year 5, 3rd through 7th rounders have nearly identical retention rates. That being the case, load up.

[__Chef__]

Howie has as many SB rings as Licht does as a GM...

False

Do they not both have 2?

[Bootz]

False

Do they not both have 2?

What 2 SB wins as a GM does Jason Licht have?

[__Chef__]

Do they not both have 2?

What 2 SB wins as a GM does Jason Licht have?

He doesn't. As I said in my post above. He happened to be around the facility somewhere when Tom Brady etched his name in NFL history for the first time in the 2001 season.

[Doctor]

Do they not both have 2?

What 2 SB wins as a GM does Jason Licht have?

I didn't know GM got different SB rings.

[MJW]

If you're trading that aggressively, it means you trust your scouting department a great deal. That's the secret sauce. Not just Roseman, but the people doing the leg work.

[__Chef__]

If you're trading that aggressively, it means you trust your scouting department a great deal. That's the secret sauce. Not just Roseman, but the people doing the leg work.

Yes, but he's changed his strategy recently. That was my point. The past two years he's prioritized loading up on mid-late round picks. If you can constantly field a team filled with late rounders that contribute meaningfully, you can afford to spend on a handful of highly paid superstars. Not only great scouts, but great position coaches are required for the strategy to work.

[CannonFire]

The reason why Roseman is better than everyone else at the draft, is because he isn't scared. If there's 3 guys he likes, he doesn't take the best one and be happy. He's willing to move up, down, and where ever and lose one of those 3... even the best one, if it means he can get 2. Worst case he misses on both. Break even scenario is that he hits on 1, which is the best case if he only got 1 of the 3. Best case scenario is that he hits on both. That puts him at a 33% chance of failure. Other GM's would rather play it safe and get their top guy. The problem with that is that the draft has an inherent 60% bust rate. The laws of averages say that the more picks you have, the better off you are. The Eagles almost always leave each draft with very few of the picks they started with and generally enter the following year with more picks than they should have.

Roseman also never has a draft like this.

As explained in the OP, they have shifted strategies recently. They are loading up on mid-late rounders. Most draft picks will bust, but by dedicating more picks in these rounds, they increase their chances of finding diamonds in the rough, and when they hit on them, they save considerably in the ever more challenging salary cap. By Year 5, 3rd through 7th rounders have nearly identical retention rates. That being the case, load up.

I don't think they shifted strategies... I think the player pool changes every year and they maximize their picks accordingly. Roseman took over in 2010. From that point on, they had more picks in the first 2 rounds than the next 2 rounds, only 4 times (never in back-to-back drafts and at least 3 years apart), 2012, 2015, 2019, & 2022. It's been their standard practice for 16 seasons to have more equal or more picks in rounds 3 & 4 than in 1 & 2.

[CannonFire]

What 2 SB wins as a GM does Jason Licht have?

He doesn't. As I said in my post above. He happened to be around the facility somewhere when Tom Brady etched his name in NFL history for the first time in the 2001 season.

His first of 2 stints in NE was 2002, when they missed the playoffs and then from '09-'11. The made it to the Super Bowl once and lost.

He did spend 5 seasons with the Eagles while Roseman was there... 2003 to 2007. So anything achieved in that time frame, would be a wash (comparatively speaking).

[Pirate Life]

He doesn't. As I said in my post above. He happened to be around the facility somewhere when Tom Brady etched his name in NFL history for the first time in the 2001 season.

His first of 2 stints in NE was 2002, when they missed the playoffs and then from '09-'11. The made it to the Super Bowl once and lost.

He did spend 5 seasons with the Eagles while Roseman was there... 2003 to 2007. So anything achieved in that time frame, would be a wash (comparatively speaking).

He was a scout on the Patriots from 1999-2001 before becoming an executive. So, two rings. Went to a third SB in 2011 with the Patriots when they lost the rematch to the Giants.

*edited to add: Missed that he was with the Cardinals in 2008, so worked with 4 SB teams and has two rings.

[CannonFire]

His first of 2 stints in NE was 2002, when they missed the playoffs and then from '09-'11. The made it to the Super Bowl once and lost.

He did spend 5 seasons with the Eagles while Roseman was there... 2003 to 2007. So anything achieved in that time frame, would be a wash (comparatively speaking).

He was a scout on the Patriots from 1999-2001 before becoming an executive. So, two rings. Went to a third SB in 2011 with the Patriots when they lost the rematch to the Giants.

*edited to add: Missed that he was with the Cardinals in 2008, so worked with 4 SB teams and has two rings.

With those credentials, you'd think he wouldn't waste time with a stop gap and start looking for a difference maker.

[Pirate Life]

He was a scout on the Patriots from 1999-2001 before becoming an executive. So, two rings. Went to a third SB in 2011 with the Patriots when they lost the rematch to the Giants.

*edited to add: Missed that he was with the Cardinals in 2008, so worked with 4 SB teams and has two rings.

With those credentials, you'd think he wouldn't waste time with a stop gap and start looking for a difference maker.

Went looking for a stop gap and found a difference maker. Quite possibly the most successful couple of 'rebuilding' years an NFL team has ever had.

[__Chef__]

With those credentials, you'd think he wouldn't waste time with a stop gap and start looking for a difference maker.

Went looking for a stop gap and found a difference maker. Quite possibly the most successful couple of 'rebuilding' years an NFL team has ever had.

Yeah, I don't really think I'd even call it a stop gap at the time. It was a lottery ticket that paid off. A stop gap would have been one of the other established stable guys like Brissett. Guys you don't figure will get you to the big game, but you can build out the rest of the team while waiting to take a shot at finding a difference maker.

[CannonFire]

@Pirate Life @__Chef__

I think this is where it's clear, we're never going to agree on this, and really, for me, it's like 90% about the money. To me, a stop gap QB is any QB who isn't a true franchise QB. To me, that's like 25 guys... so be it. Look, they want to sign Mayfield to a 7-year deal after this season, dude, I'm all for it. Give him a 7-year $150M deal, and I'm all in. On top of that, I'd be ok if all 7 years was guaranteed. What I don't like is short team deals that have high individual season cap hits that give us less financial flexibility on a year-to-year basis nor do I like voidable years on guys who aren't special. To some, Mayfield is a difference maker, to me, he's a JAG. Use him, pay him little, move on to the next guy.

The only difference between us and the Cowboys is that Dallas was stupid enough to pay Dak $60M. We're still both pretenders.

[Pirate Life]

@Pirate Life @__Chef__

I think this is where it's clear, we're never going to agree on this, and really, for me, it's like 90% about the money. To me, a stop gap QB is any QB who isn't a true franchise QB. To me, that's like 25 guys... so be it. Look, they want to sign Mayfield to a 7-year deal after this season, dude, I'm all for it. Give him a 7-year $150M deal, and I'm all in. On top of that, I'd be ok if all 7 years was guaranteed. What I don't like is short team deals that have high individual season cap hits that give us less financial flexibility on a year-to-year basis nor do I like voidable years on guys who aren't special. To some, Mayfield is a difference maker, to me, he's a JAG. Use him, pay him little, move on to the next guy.

The only difference between us and the Cowboys is that Dallas was stupid enough to pay Dak $60M. We're still both pretenders.

The money argument is not a strong one, price of QBs is only going up after all. Mayfield's price vs his performance compared to his peers is still a bargain comparatively. He ranks 18th among QBs for percentage of cap space he takes up in 25 (he accounts for a bit over 8%) and in 26 (just over 13%). Everyone on your list who isn't on a rookie contract is higher other than Wilson and Rodgers who are essentially on one year 'prove it' deals. Before you (or anyone else) brings up void years, here are the QBs with void years in their contracts - actually easier to list the ones who aren't on rookie contracts that don't have void years: Murray, Smith (fully guaranteed contract), Cousins (fully guaranteed contract), Hebert and the guys on one year deals like Rodgers and Wilson. Everyone else's contract has built in void years.

To put it in more perspective, Cameron Ward the #1 pick in this year's draft has a fully guaranteed contract for $48.8 million, or $1.2 million less than Mayfield's guaranteed $50 million for his current contract for a guy who has never played a down in the NFL.

[CannonFire]

@Pirate Life @__Chef__

I think this is where it's clear, we're never going to agree on this, and really, for me, it's like 90% about the money. To me, a stop gap QB is any QB who isn't a true franchise QB. To me, that's like 25 guys... so be it. Look, they want to sign Mayfield to a 7-year deal after this season, dude, I'm all for it. Give him a 7-year $150M deal, and I'm all in. On top of that, I'd be ok if all 7 years was guaranteed. What I don't like is short team deals that have high individual season cap hits that give us less financial flexibility on a year-to-year basis nor do I like voidable years on guys who aren't special. To some, Mayfield is a difference maker, to me, he's a JAG. Use him, pay him little, move on to the next guy.

The only difference between us and the Cowboys is that Dallas was stupid enough to pay Dak $60M. We're still both pretenders.

The money argument is not a strong one, price of QBs is only going up after all. Mayfield's price vs his performance compared to his peers is still a bargain comparatively. He ranks 18th among QBs for percentage of cap space he takes up in 25 (he accounts for a bit over 8%) and in 26 (just over 13%). Everyone on your list who isn't on a rookie contract is higher other than Wilson and Rodgers who are essentially on one year 'prove it' deals. Before you (or anyone else) brings up void years, here are the QBs with void years in their contracts - actually easier to list the ones who aren't on rookie contracts that don't have void years: Murray, Smith (fully guaranteed contract), Cousins (fully guaranteed contract), Hebert and the guys on one year deals like Rodgers and Wilson. Everyone else's contract has built in void years.

To put it in more perspective, Cameron Ward the #1 pick in this year's draft has a fully guaranteed contract for $48.8 million, or $1.2 million less than Mayfield's guaranteed $50 million for his current contract for a guy who has never played a down in the NFL.

One thing I know for a fact, is that you will never find a post of mine saying that those other QBs are getting paid appropriately.

I don't have a working knowledge of Cam Ward. All I know is that he was the #1 pick. That said, I'd rather have Ward and his deal than Mayfield and his.

[Pirate Life]

One thing I know for a fact, is that you will never find a post of mine saying that those other QBs are getting paid appropriately.

I don't have a working knowledge of Cam Ward. All I know is that he was the #1 pick. That said, I'd rather have Ward and his deal than Mayfield and his.

You've implied they are better deals than Mayfield when complaining about his pay, but saying you'd rather have a guy who takes up more cap space than Mayfield who doesn't perform nearly as well as Mayfield on the field while bemoaning what Mayfield's getting paid is... something? Top ten performance for bottom third pay (the past two years) is normally something you want for your team.

Ward was the #1 pick in a draft with few 'great' prospects. He wasn't one of them, just the most highly thought of QB of the bunch. But we'll see how he turns out.

[CannonFire]

One thing I know for a fact, is that you will never find a post of mine saying that those other QBs are getting paid appropriately.

I don't have a working knowledge of Cam Ward. All I know is that he was the #1 pick. That said, I'd rather have Ward and his deal than Mayfield and his.

You've implied they are better deals than Mayfield when complaining about his pay, but saying you'd rather have a guy who takes up more cap space than Mayfield who doesn't perform nearly as well as Mayfield on the field while bemoaning what Mayfield's getting paid is... something? Top ten performance for bottom third pay (the past two years) is normally something you want for your team.

Ward was the #1 pick in a draft with few 'great' prospects. He wasn't one of them, just the most highly thought of QB of the bunch. But we'll see how he turns out.

The only deals I've ever mentioned were of FA's. I've never made any comments about rather having guys like Dak and his deal, or Hurts, or Goff, or any other guy with a long-term deal. I wouldn't pay them either. Put any of them on the Panthers, and they're winning 5 or 6 games just like Young did. This year... maybe 7 or 8.

I've mentioned this before, but I won't discuss (in depth), QB's who went to a Florida school on this board because of the overwhelming love or hate. That said, I'd always rather have a 1st rd QB over a JAG. Give me the savings until I find that stud. If I were a GM, I'd never pick up a QBs 5th year option, ever. If you don't know what you have after 3 years, then you're not good at your job. If the kid is great, give him a new deal early and avoid the balloon payout. If he's not great, draft a QB in R1 and let your guy play out his 4th year and let him walk. Take the comp pick.

[__Chef__]

...I'd rather have Ward and his deal than Mayfield and his.

I see your philosophy, and mostly agree. We just disagree on what Mayfield brings to the team.

[Pirate Life]

You've implied they are better deals than Mayfield when complaining about his pay, but saying you'd rather have a guy who takes up more cap space than Mayfield who doesn't perform nearly as well as Mayfield on the field while bemoaning what Mayfield's getting paid is... something? Top ten performance for bottom third pay (the past two years) is normally something you want for your team.

Ward was the #1 pick in a draft with few 'great' prospects. He wasn't one of them, just the most highly thought of QB of the bunch. But we'll see how he turns out.

The only deals I've ever mentioned were of FA's. I've never made any comments about rather having guys like Dak and his deal, or Hurts, or Goff, or any other guy with a long-term deal. I wouldn't pay them either. Put any of them on the Panthers, and they're winning 5 or 6 games just like Young did. This year... maybe 7 or 8.

I've mentioned this before, but I won't discuss (in depth), QB's who went to a Florida school on this board because of the overwhelming love or hate. That said, I'd always rather have a 1st rd QB over a JAG. Give me the savings until I find that stud. If I were a GM, I'd never pick up a QBs 5th year option, ever. If you don't know what you have after 3 years, then you're not good at your job. If the kid is great, give him a new deal early and avoid the balloon payout. If he's not great, draft a QB in R1 and let your guy play out his 4th year and let him walk. Take the comp pick.

Nah, you've mentioned Lawrence being able to put up better numbers on this team a few times. Hasn't come close to being an FA.

Rookie QB deals are a bit of a cheat code, sure. But the success rate the past few years isn't that great for first round ones: Since 2020:

a) Lawrence, leads the league in turnovers since his rookie season, best yardage season had him 9th, best TD season had him tied for 10th. As discussed previously, team invested a lot around him without a lot of results (honestly thought he'd do better coming out of college)

b)Wilson, already on third team, didn't even make it through his rookie contract after being traded to Denver for a 6th rounder.

c)Jones, also on third team. Patriots dumped him for a 6th round pick, jags declined his option and chose to not resign.

d) Lance, also on third team. It's Trey Lance, not sure much more needs to be said.

e) Fields, also on third team. I'm sensing a pattern here.

f) Pickett, on third team... the trend continues! But does have a SB ring from the Eagles last season and one of the all-time great gaffs with his one 'pass' attempt never leaving his hand and causing him to tackle himself.

g)Young, Horrific first season, cost several coaches their jobs as well as the GM and other front office folks. His 'redemption' season last year wasn't much of an improvement on the first. Remains to be seen how this turns out.

h) Stroud, promising rookie season lost its shine after a very mediocre season last year.

i)Richardson, looks to be on the way out from Indy. Possibly out of the league, but some team somewhere will pick him up for his athleticism and the belief they can fix him. They won't.

j) Daniels, great rookie season and showed great potential. Possibly the only one on this list that will have longevity and remain in the top 10-15 QBs if not higher.

k) Williams, pretty bad first season, even if the Bears tried to build around him. Possible coach issue last season from the stories. If he doesn't show decent improvement this season after more investments around him and the new coach Bears just may be cursed when it comes to QBs.

l) Maye, looked pretty good on a bad NE team. Definitely a wait and see. Could be the second guy on this list after Daniels.

m) Nix, Pretty good rookie season overall. Decent team around him, good offensive coach (if shitty human being) so potential to be up there with Daniels. But it's Bo Nix. The Wal-Mart Great Value white bread of NFL QBs. It works, but you wish you'd paid the extra fifteen cents for a loaf of Wonderbread.

n) Penix, Great arm, but makes you wonder when an immobile Kirk Cousins started over him for so long after they'd drafted him over fears of Cousins being immobile. Game film very meh, but may just need more time adjusting to NFL defenses. Solid definite maybe.

o) McCarthy. First season lost to injury, but they were handing him the keys last year before that and sent your golden boy Darnold packing after the season to let him start this season.

Not including this year's crop since they haven't seen the field yet, but I don't have high hopes for any of them.

To sum up: Out of 15 first round QBs, there's exactly one I'd take over who we have at the moment. Stroud may work his way back into contention, but he did not look great after the 6th game last year.

[CannonFire]

The only deals I've ever mentioned were of FA's. I've never made any comments about rather having guys like Dak and his deal, or Hurts, or Goff, or any other guy with a long-term deal. I wouldn't pay them either. Put any of them on the Panthers, and they're winning 5 or 6 games just like Young did. This year... maybe 7 or 8.

I've mentioned this before, but I won't discuss (in depth), QB's who went to a Florida school on this board because of the overwhelming love or hate. That said, I'd always rather have a 1st rd QB over a JAG. Give me the savings until I find that stud. If I were a GM, I'd never pick up a QBs 5th year option, ever. If you don't know what you have after 3 years, then you're not good at your job. If the kid is great, give him a new deal early and avoid the balloon payout. If he's not great, draft a QB in R1 and let your guy play out his 4th year and let him walk. Take the comp pick.

Nah, you've mentioned Lawrence being able to put up better numbers on this team a few times. Hasn't come close to being an FA.

Rookie QB deals are a bit of a cheat code, sure. But the success rate the past few years isn't that great for first round ones: Since 2020:

a) Lawrence, leads the league in turnovers since his rookie season, best yardage season had him 9th, best TD season had him tied for 10th. As discussed previously, team invested a lot around him without a lot of results (honestly thought he'd do better coming out of college)

b)Wilson, already on third team, didn't even make it through his rookie contract after being traded to Denver for a 6th rounder.

c)Jones, also on third team. Patriots dumped him for a 6th round pick, jags declined his option and chose to not resign.

d) Lance, also on third team. It's Trey Lance, not sure much more needs to be said.

e) Fields, also on third team. I'm sensing a pattern here.

f) Pickett, on third team... the trend continues! But does have a SB ring from the Eagles last season and one of the all-time great gaffs with his one 'pass' attempt never leaving his hand and causing him to tackle himself.

g)Young, Horrific first season, cost several coaches their jobs as well as the GM and other front office folks. His 'redemption' season last year wasn't much of an improvement on the first. Remains to be seen how this turns out.

h) Stroud, promising rookie season lost its shine after a very mediocre season last year.

i)Richardson, looks to be on the way out from Indy. Possibly out of the league, but some team somewhere will pick him up for his athleticism and the belief they can fix him. They won't.

j) Daniels, great rookie season and showed great potential. Possibly the only one on this list that will have longevity and remain in the top 10-15 QBs if not higher.

k) Williams, pretty bad first season, even if the Bears tried to build around him. Possible coach issue last season from the stories. If he doesn't show decent improvement this season after more investments around him and the new coach Bears just may be cursed when it comes to QBs.

l) Maye, looked pretty good on a bad NE team. Definitely a wait and see. Could be the second guy on this list after Daniels.

m) Nix, Pretty good rookie season overall. Decent team around him, good offensive coach (if shitty human being) so potential to be up there with Daniels. But it's Bo Nix. The Wal-Mart Great Value white bread of NFL QBs. It works, but you wish you'd paid the extra fifteen cents for a loaf of Wonderbread.

n) Penix, Great arm, but makes you wonder when an immobile Kirk Cousins started over him for so long after they'd drafted him over fears of Cousins being immobile. Game film very meh, but may just need more time adjusting to NFL defenses. Solid definite maybe.

o) McCarthy. First season lost to injury, but they were handing him the keys last year before that and sent your golden boy Darnold packing after the season to let him start this season.

Not including this year's crop since they haven't seen the field yet, but I don't have high hopes for any of them.

To sum up: Out of 15 first round QBs, there's exactly one I'd take over who we have at the moment. Stroud may work his way back into contention, but he did not look great after the 6th game last year.

Sounds good. Let's go with that then.

[BuccaNOLEer]

The only deals I've ever mentioned were of FA's. I've never made any comments about rather having guys like Dak and his deal, or Hurts, or Goff, or any other guy with a long-term deal. I wouldn't pay them either. Put any of them on the Panthers, and they're winning 5 or 6 games just like Young did. This year... maybe 7 or 8.

I've mentioned this before, but I won't discuss (in depth), QB's who went to a Florida school on this board because of the overwhelming love or hate. That said, I'd always rather have a 1st rd QB over a JAG. Give me the savings until I find that stud. If I were a GM, I'd never pick up a QBs 5th year option, ever. If you don't know what you have after 3 years, then you're not good at your job. If the kid is great, give him a new deal early and avoid the balloon payout. If he's not great, draft a QB in R1 and let your guy play out his 4th year and let him walk. Take the comp pick.

Nah, you've mentioned Lawrence being able to put up better numbers on this team a few times. Hasn't come close to being an FA.

Rookie QB deals are a bit of a cheat code, sure. But the success rate the past few years isn't that great for first round ones: Since 2020:

a) Lawrence, leads the league in turnovers since his rookie season, best yardage season had him 9th, best TD season had him tied for 10th. As discussed previously, team invested a lot around him without a lot of results (honestly thought he'd do better coming out of college)

b)Wilson, already on third team, didn't even make it through his rookie contract after being traded to Denver for a 6th rounder.

c)Jones, also on third team. Patriots dumped him for a 6th round pick, jags declined his option and chose to not resign.

d) Lance, also on third team. It's Trey Lance, not sure much more needs to be said.

e) Fields, also on third team. I'm sensing a pattern here.

f) Pickett, on third team... the trend continues! But does have a SB ring from the Eagles last season and one of the all-time great gaffs with his one 'pass' attempt never leaving his hand and causing him to tackle himself.

g)Young, Horrific first season, cost several coaches their jobs as well as the GM and other front office folks. His 'redemption' season last year wasn't much of an improvement on the first. Remains to be seen how this turns out.

h) Stroud, promising rookie season lost its shine after a very mediocre season last year.

i)Richardson, looks to be on the way out from Indy. Possibly out of the league, but some team somewhere will pick him up for his athleticism and the belief they can fix him. They won't.

j) Daniels, great rookie season and showed great potential. Possibly the only one on this list that will have longevity and remain in the top 10-15 QBs if not higher.

k) Williams, pretty bad first season, even if the Bears tried to build around him. Possible coach issue last season from the stories. If he doesn't show decent improvement this season after more investments around him and the new coach Bears just may be cursed when it comes to QBs.

l) Maye, looked pretty good on a bad NE team. Definitely a wait and see. Could be the second guy on this list after Daniels.

m) Nix, Pretty good rookie season overall. Decent team around him, good offensive coach (if shitty human being) so potential to be up there with Daniels. But it's Bo Nix. The Wal-Mart Great Value white bread of NFL QBs. It works, but you wish you'd paid the extra fifteen cents for a loaf of Wonderbread.

n) Penix, Great arm, but makes you wonder when an immobile Kirk Cousins started over him for so long after they'd drafted him over fears of Cousins being immobile. Game film very meh, but may just need more time adjusting to NFL defenses. Solid definite maybe.

o) McCarthy. First season lost to injury, but they were handing him the keys last year before that and sent your golden boy Darnold packing after the season to let him start this season.

Not including this year's crop since they haven't seen the field yet, but I don't have high hopes for any of them.

To sum up: Out of 15 first round QBs, there's exactly one I'd take over who we have at the moment. Stroud may work his way back into contention, but he did not look great after the 6th game last year.

Some of these guys had no business going in the first round. It shows how much of a premium is put on the QB position and how far teams will reach for one

[Pirate Life]

Sounds good. Let's go with that then.

Would have taken too much draft/player capital to trade up to #1 or #2 to get him. Neither Chicago or Washington wanted to budge from where they were at.

[CannonFire]

Sounds good. Let's go with that then.

Would have taken too much draft/player capital to trade up to #1 or #2 to get him. Neither Chicago or Washington wanted to budge from where they were at.

My point was purely about the contract and the player (expected production), not the feasibility of it actually happening. That said, for the sake of curiosity... Who says "No" to this deal?

We're trading up to the #1 spot (any of the last 2 drafts), Baker Mayfield for that pick, straight up.

If Baker is so good and he's "so cheap" as other's like to point out to me, and we won't need him anymore if we're trading up to get a QB, why would any team "not budge from where they were at"?

[CannonFire]

Sounds good. Let's go with that then.

Would have taken too much draft/player capital to trade up to #1 or #2 to get him. Neither Chicago or Washington wanted to budge from where they were at.

He could've also had a (p) Baker Mayfield. I understand why he left him off though... it's another example of people on this board, having a standard that isn't being applied to Mayfield, even though it fits.

Wilson and Baker aren't much different. Neither were kept to the end of their rookie contracts. On their 3rd (Baker's 4th), team. Baker signed a deal with someone who traded him the same year... and that team just let him walk. They were happier keeping a guy 10 years older on the final deal of his contract even... then paid him even more money.

[Pirate Life]

Would have taken too much draft/player capital to trade up to #1 or #2 to get him. Neither Chicago or Washington wanted to budge from where they were at.

My point was purely about the contract and the player (expected production), not the feasibility of it actually happening. That said, for the sake of curiosity... Who say's "No" to this deal?

We're trading up to the #1 spot (any of the last 2 drafts), Baker Mayfield for that pick, straight up.

If Baker is so good and he's "so cheap" as other's like to point out to me, and we won't need him anymore if we're trading up to get a QB, why would any team "not budge from where they were at"?

No one. Just look at what the Panthers traded to move from 9th to 1st: 2 firsts, 2 seconds and DJ Moore. Same draft the Texans traded two firsts a second and a third round pick to move from 12th to 3rd. Moving up from a high teens/low 20s draft position is more expensive than that.