Bucs at Falcons Wk 13 discussion

[Cheb]

| Ryan Succop | N/A | 61.0 |

Someone at PFF needs to explain to me how these "advanced metrics" work.

The guy kicked 6 footballs at the goalposts. All six went through. He was literally perfect at executing his only job. Yet some neckbeard wipes the Hot Pocket grease off his fingers long enough to type, "Kicks weren't perfect enough. The Metrics have spoken. 61!" and it's a real thing that people are supposed to value.

No kidding.

[Nobody]

PFF absolutely loved White in college.

In LSU’s Match Quarters + Green Dog Man heavy scheme, he had both a 90+ grade in Coverage and Overall his senior year and they absolutely projected him to continue that trend in the NFL.

So if someone is of the “PFF grades are arbitrary and they protect their product and projections by artificially maintaining a through line from college to the NFL” persuasion, White is a player that pushes back against that idea as much as possible.

[MJW]

PFF absolutely loved White in college.

In LSU’s Match Quarters + Green Dog Man heavy scheme, he had both a 90+ grade in Coverage and Overall his senior year and they absolutely projected him to continue that trend in the NFL.

So if someone is of the “PFF grades are arbitrary and they protect their product and projections by artificially maintaining a through line from college to the NFL” persuasion, White is a player that pushes back against that idea as much as possible.

Counterpoint: Different people at PFF evaluate NFL players and college players, because the idea Devin White is something other than he was in college is ridiculous.

[Grahamburn]

PFF absolutely loved White in college.

In LSU’s Match Quarters + Green Dog Man heavy scheme, he had both a 90+ grade in Coverage and Overall his senior year and they absolutely projected him to continue that trend in the NFL.

So if someone is of the “PFF grades are arbitrary and they protect their product and projections by artificially maintaining a through line from college to the NFL” persuasion, White is a player that pushes back against that idea as much as possible.

Interesting. I know in your analysis of him and the pick you did not agree that he should have been selected that high nor over Josh Allen. Was it more that you felt like the coverage schemes he’d be asked to run in the NFL were significantly different than what he did at LSU?

Regardless, I do think his flaws continue to hinder the defense in spite of the splash plays he makes. I think we all hoped he had turned a corner in the playoffs. Those performances have not carried over to this season.

[Nobody]

PFF absolutely loved White in college.

In LSU’s Match Quarters + Green Dog Man heavy scheme, he had both a 90+ grade in Coverage and Overall his senior year and they absolutely projected him to continue that trend in the NFL.

So if someone is of the “PFF grades are arbitrary and they protect their product and projections by artificially maintaining a through line from college to the NFL” persuasion, White is a player that pushes back against that idea as much as possible.

Counterpoint: Different people at PFF evaluate NFL players and college players, because the idea Devin White is something other than he was in college is ridiculous.

As a counterpoint, that’s (a) not particularly responsive to what I wrote and (b) do you have any evidence to substantiate that they have discrete NCAA and NFL teams with no overlap? May be true, but I’ve never heard that put forth.

Ive seen many people (I think here as well) float the idea that PFF protects its product by maintaining consistency by artificially grading the players it has historically “liked” with a thumb on the scales. That is what I was addressing. Now if your speculation is true, that would make for an impossibility for their NCAA prospects to exist in a “protected status” bubble…which, in turn, would destroy their ability to ensure the predictability of their NCAA grading and projections.


As for Devin being the same player, yes, he is. But the ask of LSU vs the ask of the NFL and this defense is very different (outside of the huge chunk of Green Dog + Man we were “supposed to” run, but we’ve progressively gone away from over the last few years; in terms of volume). He was in the off-ball playmaker position at LSU with a profoundly reduced breadth of assignment/processing demands (a massive amount of “read one thing in front of you and attack” or just “attack”).

* We play Match Quarters at a very low clip vs the large chunk they did at LSU.

* When we do play MQ or Palms, his assignments are waaaaaaaay more difficult than at LSU due to formations and route trees forcing him into overhang territory or even out of the box a lot where he’s having to read to match verts against #2/3 a lot.

* He’s playing a significant majority of Low Hole in 2Z/3Z, running High Hole in T2Z, playing a ton of Seam/Hook during Zone Blitz against a huge variety of WR clusters and route combos that requires a kind of processing while dropping (or a level of successful film study to reliably predict what you’re going to see based on formation + down & distance). Just an entirely different suite of cognitive challenges.

* He’s being attacked with layered horizontal set dressing and fakery and then action/perimeter Screen game off of all that; again, massive processing challenge and discipline test. Unlike anything he came close to being responsible for in college.

* The OL’s he’s playing against are hugely more (collectively and individually) athletic and capable. Same goes for QBs who have much more escapability and WRs/TEs with much more open field capability.


+++++++++

Devin isn’t the same player he was at LSU. He’s a much more rounded player playing in a defense with a monstrously larger suite of challenges/responsibilities. He’s improved a huge amount from year 1 to year 3 when playing High/Low Hole and Seam/Hook and in his Man coverage on Unders. He still has to get a lot better in Zone and MQ when he’s dealing with Vert match reads (and how he should help with leverage when he’s playing Hole in 1 Man Free…remember when he picked off CD3 earlier in the year?), but he’s certainly made a down-in and down-out leap from his year 1 struggles. It’s not leading to vastly different results, but he’s not stacking (in PF parlance) -2 after -1 after -2 there. It’s a lot of -1 and 0s (as expected) with 1s sprinkled in (and the stray 2 like the other day when his read > react > PD led to a Pick).


And finally, when you’re looking at a player like White, you can’t just look at his grades. I doubt he could ever climb to even a consistent high 60s graded player in the NFL because his snap-in, snap-out variance in carrying out the integrity of his assignment is just wild.

With Devin, you really have to look at negative plays produced and their impact on the profile of the game. Then you look at what his high variance in assignment integrity is doing and contrast the two. Like the DW in the NFC Championship and SB…Gamewrecker + extremely low variance in assignment integrity. That guy is an All Pro player. And consider how much cosmetic work would have been done to his 2021 campaign with +2 FR and +2 TDs (recall two plays were called back…1 of them clearly a crap call). You really have to look at Devin similar to the way you look at Edge payers; forgive the only 22 % Win Rate…”how often is he making game-changing plays that rearrange the scope of the gamestate into our favor.” For instance:

* Micah Parsons is blowing Devin away in production (and a ton of that is on-ball and not schemed Pressure), but if you take Parsons out, Devin leads the NFL in both LB Pressures and Pass Rush Productivity (it’s tight, but he’s #1).

* Stops (Tackles which constitute a “play loss” for the offense) + Sacks combined? Devin is tied for # 8 LB in the league (again taking out Parsons).

Devin needs to continue in his improvement in his Zone Coverage capability, he needs to read and fit the run much more consistently when dealing with horizontal/fake perimeter Screen dressing, he needs to read (or film study needs to yield a more proactive player on the field who sees it before the snap) all the wrong footing action on perimeter plays MUCH better than he is and be able to consistently deploy that crazy burst to either finish plays or close from outside in appropriately and destroy blockers to force the ball to boundary help, he needs to increase his Tackling Efficiency and improve his pursuit angles so he’s attacking with leverage to help, he needs to finish blitzes at a much higher rate (particularly when the execution of the Stunt in front of him + Devin’s timing and burst has gotten him through clean), and he needs to develop some kind of Stab/Slap and Rip/Dip game when attacking IOL on blitzes.


And Bowles needs to put him in better position to attack more often. We are barely Green Dogging anymore. A lot of that is because Devin had some catastrophic losses year 1 and early 2 in Green Dog assignments (getting baited into attacking the LoS and then the RB releasing…or just reading seams incorrectly and getting swallowed by OL, this vacating the Low/Mid Hole help he could be playing to support his DBs.), but if a RB you’re highly invested in Fumbles a few times, you don’t just mothball him.

[ATrain]

White has been better over the past couple weeks but has been a disappointment overall this season. His development seems to have stopped completely.

He's the most athletic LB in the league but he can't translate his god given gifts into coverage and can get him in trouble with over pursuit.

He is who he is. He's at his best when used ultras aggressively which given our injuries in the secondary has been limited due to the very conservative defense that has been called thus far.

Maybe once we have the starting secondary on the field again White can be used to his fullest potential again.

Otherwise, hoping White turns into Darius Leonard is a fool's errand. Instead, he needs to be utilized in a way that exploits his strengths allowing him to do Devin White things which Darius Leonard could never do.

Does that ultimately mean he was likely overdrafted? Yes, probably. But that's spilt milk at this point.

[MJW]

PFF absolutely loved White in college.

In LSU’s Match Quarters + Green Dog Man heavy scheme, he had both a 90+ grade in Coverage and Overall his senior year and they absolutely projected him to continue that trend in the NFL.

So if someone is of the “PFF grades are arbitrary and they protect their product and projections by artificially maintaining a through line from college to the NFL” persuasion, White is a player that pushes back against that idea as much as possible.

Interesting. I know in your analysis of him and the pick you did not agree that he should have been selected that high nor over Josh Allen. Was it more that you felt like the coverage schemes he’d be asked to run in the NFL were significantly different than what he did at LSU?

Regardless, I do think his flaws continue to hinder the defense in spite of the splash plays he makes. I think we all hoped he had turned a corner in the playoffs. Those performances have not carried over to this season.

I can't speak for Nobody, and his and Cheb's opinions should carry more weight than mine anyway when it comes to the finer points of the game.

Speaking for myself, I didn't like White for two reasons:

One, it was a question of positional value. The holy trinity of value is Quarterback, Left Tackle, and Pass Rusher (you can flip those last two if you wish.) After that, I'm looking for a corner who can erase his guy in man coverage or a wide receiver who can beat that corner. Not as ideal as that first group, but you can still find transcendent talents to justify that. It's not like Calvin Johnson or Patrick Peterson weren't worth their status.

But from there, I struggle. I just think a chase and tackle linebacker has to be HALL OF FAME good to justify that pick. That's nothing against White specifically, but it's the same main reason taking Saquan Barkley at #2 made no sense to me, or taking Roberto Aguayo in the second round. Same reasoning. At those draft slots, a dude has to be ELITE to justify the draft capital expended.

So I wanted Josh Allen. I saw him as a potentially dominant edge rusher.

As for White himself, his athletic numbers are mind-boggling. As a physical specimen, he's a monster. We know this. But as a football player? I saw too much freelancing at LSU. I saw over-aggressiveness in coverage that made him easy pickings for crafty receivers. And his tackling was a mess. He almost always tried to drag guys down by their shoulders. He was strong enough to get away with it most of the time. But I knew it would cause problems in the NFL.

It's tough to say what he is now. He looked like the next great linebacker in the league last year, but part of that was unsustainable. His "sacks to rushes" ratio was insane. No matter how talented he was, that was never going to hold. This year he's plummeted back to earth as a pass rusher. He still has a flair for the big play in coverage, but he still gets exploited. His tackling HAS improved some, but you'll still see him go high and miss from time to time.

I'm not 100% sure he'll ever reach his ceiling, because his ceiling is batshit crazy. But regardless, he needs to be more consistent.

[Nobody]

PFF absolutely loved White in college.

In LSU’s Match Quarters + Green Dog Man heavy scheme, he had both a 90+ grade in Coverage and Overall his senior year and they absolutely projected him to continue that trend in the NFL.

So if someone is of the “PFF grades are arbitrary and they protect their product and projections by artificially maintaining a through line from college to the NFL” persuasion, White is a player that pushes back against that idea as much as possible.

Interesting. I know in your analysis of him and the pick you did not agree that he should have been selected that high nor over Josh Allen. Was it more that you felt like the coverage schemes he’d be asked to run in the NFL were significantly different than what he did at LSU?

Regardless, I do think his flaws continue to hinder the defense in spite of the splash plays he makes. I think we all hoped he had turned a corner in the playoffs. Those performances have not carried over to this season.

See that mega post above, but yeah, that is the crux of it.

My concern was (a) you just don’t draft off-ball LBs and RBs that high and (b) the ask of him at LSU was going to be nothing like the ask in the NFL (and there was a lot of evidence on tape - eg the few snaps he did play in Low/Mid/High Hole and Seam Hook + his labored processing on screens + his missed tackle rate and struggles to finish on Blitzes - that area of concern would be acutely magnified in the NFL).

ILB and Box/Overhang Safety are so enormously processing intensive in all play but particularly the modern NFL game (offenses are overwhelmingly predicated upon screwing with these player’s cognitive loop and generating play wins on the back of them being out of position/losing assignment integrity). The processing and freelancing issues and missed tackle rate I saw in Devin’s LSU tape (which was covered up by scheme and front 4 dominance and the % of plays he was deployed as an attack player) was alarming.

“The real problem for humanity is the following:

We have Paleolithic brains, medieval institutions, and godlike technology.”

E.O. Wilson

I’m afflicted with the Paleolithic (Lizard) Brain like everyone else. I see high amplitude stuff that stands out and I want to reflexively work off a simple heuristic that says “HEY THIS IS THE WAY THE THING WORKS” just like everyone else. Devin is absolutely a sexy Lizard Brain tickler (just like electric RBs). I love watching him blur into the frame and SMASH some dude.

But there is a shit-ton more than blur + SMASH to ILB play (even if they’re tasked with playing downhill much more than your average ILB).

++++++++

As far as prospects in that draft, the guy I loved the most was Burns because of his enormous ceiling. Allen was an all around good prospect with traits that would translate but Burns was the “traits will translate + toolkit is raw and with expansion he’ll be a lock for premiere Edge player” prospect. When it comes to looking at prospects, I always liked transferable traits + ceiling. Burns had the highest ceiling + highest floor combo of any defender I looked at heavily in that draft (with Allen being a high floor player + consistency + room to grow). I had Allen just above Burns in terms of raw tape eval, but Burns is the player I wanted because of that stupid high ceiling. Not surprising, their arcs mirror that. Allen had a hugely productive Rookie year, got injured year 2 for the bulk of it, and he’s having a very solid year 3 that is skin to his Rookie year. Meanwhile, Burns has been on an upward trajectory (basically catching Allen’s very good year 3…theyre 4/5 in Edge Stops and mid 20s in PRP with Allen’s Win Rate coming in much higher at near Watts level). Wouldn’t surprise me to see Burns continue on that trajectory (especially with the D talent arrayed in Carolina vs the mess that is Jax).

[mdb1958]

It's tough to say what he is now.

Injured!

As in not 100%.

[Defense5599]

The game should be a blowout, at least on paper. They're very anemic on offense(Matt Ryan is having a sad year). They don't really stop many teams from scoring. Talent-wise, they're 4th in the division and it's not really that close. The game is also in Atlanta...where despite being 5-6 overall, they're 1-4 at home.

But it's still a divisional game and crazy shit can happen. We've seen weak teams take down stronger teams almost weekly. I can understand why we're favored by 11+ but we gotta play better ourselves.

On a side note; hopefully we get more healthy this week. We should get Ali back at least this week, and both Devin White and Jamal Dean escaped serious injuries and could play this week. Arians described it more as a pain tolerance thing for Dean. We could also see the return of Carlton Davis and AB this week.

This team needs to ignore the fact that they are 11 point favorites and focus on the fact that they almost got beat by the Falcons week 2 IN TAMPA. They gave up a cheap field goal to end the half and then let them back in the game in the third quarter.

This is a classic trap game and Arians better prepare this team for it... No more of this "dumb football" bullshit.

[Buc2]

| Ryan Succop | N/A | 61.0 |

Someone at PFF needs to explain to me how these "advanced metrics" work.

The guy kicked 6 footballs at the goalposts. All six went through. He was literally perfect at executing his only job. Yet some neckbeard wipes the Hot Pocket grease off his fingers long enough to type, "Kicks weren't perfect enough. The Metrics have spoken. 61!" and it's a real thing that people are supposed to value.

Just to clarify, that ranking was for the entire season to date, not just the last game.

Oh, and that doesn't diminish your point one iota. lol

[BLT]

| Ryan Succop | N/A | 61.0 |

Someone at PFF needs to explain to me how these "advanced metrics" work.

The guy kicked 6 footballs at the goalposts. All six went through. He was literally perfect at executing his only job. Yet some neckbeard wipes the Hot Pocket grease off his fingers long enough to type, "Kicks weren't perfect enough. The Metrics have spoken. 61!" and it's a real thing that people are supposed to value.

Well, you understand those are grades through week 13 and not grades for week 13, right?

[nybf]

Someone at PFF needs to explain to me how these "advanced metrics" work.

The guy kicked 6 footballs at the goalposts. All six went through. He was literally perfect at executing his only job. Yet some neckbeard wipes the Hot Pocket grease off his fingers long enough to type, "Kicks weren't perfect enough. The Metrics have spoken. 61!" and it's a real thing that people are supposed to value.

Well, you understand those are grades through week 13 and not grades for week 13, right?

Clearly she doesn't, but that's not going to stop her from throwing together 1000 words about something completely different in am effort to tell you you're wrong.

And for the record, I've posted the link to PFF's grading explanation a few times. It just never gets clicked by the people who cry about it all the gd time.

[BLT]

Well, you understand those are grades through week 13 and not grades for week 13, right?

Clearly she doesn't, but that's not going to stop her from throwing together 1000 words about something completely different in am effort to tell you you're wrong.

And for the record, I've posted the link to PFF's grading explanation a few times. It just never gets clicked by the people who cry about it all the gd time.

I was thinking that too. I always see people like 'I'd LOVE to know how these idiots came up with that.' Umm, they will literally tell you how they came up with it.

[Backside]

[MJW]

Well, you understand those are grades through week 13 and not grades for week 13, right?

Clearly she doesn't, but that's not going to stop her from throwing together 1000 words about something completely different in am effort to tell you you're wrong.

And for the record, I've posted the link to PFF's grading explanation a few times. It just never gets clicked by the people who cry about it all the gd time.

No, I didn't realize that, or I wouldn't have made the comment. Because the comment wouldn't have made sense if I did know that?

Please post the link again, I haven't seen it. I'm still very curious what metric can exist to evaluate a field goal kicker besides, you know, kicking accuracy.

And please let me know if my Amazon package comes today. It could be delivered to my second residence, between your ears.

[uscbucsfan]

Well, you understand those are grades through week 13 and not grades for week 13, right?

Clearly she doesn't, but that's not going to stop her from throwing together 1000 words about something completely different in am effort to tell you you're wrong.

And for the record, I've posted the link to PFF's grading explanation a few times. It just never gets clicked by the people who cry about it all the gd time.

You guys sure do love to make things up to justify your hatred of PFF.

@PFF
The Player Grading Scale:
100-90 Elite
89-85 Pro Bowler
84-70 Starter
69-60 Backup
59-0 Replaceable

So a 43.3 is not below 59?

Like this?

PFF's grading on some players is ridiculous. It warrants criticism. Grading Devin White as the worst LB in the NFL and putting his grade as below a backup player is incorrect.

[BLT]

Clearly she doesn't, but that's not going to stop her from throwing together 1000 words about something completely different in am effort to tell you you're wrong.

And for the record, I've posted the link to PFF's grading explanation a few times. It just never gets clicked by the people who cry about it all the gd time.

No, I didn't realize that, or I wouldn't have made the comment. Because the comment wouldn't have made sense if I did know that?

Please post the link again, I haven't seen it. I'm still very curious what metric can exist to evaluate a field goal kicker besides, you know, kicking accuracy.

And please let me know if my Amazon package comes today. It could be delivered to my second residence, between your ears.

That dildo you ordered, and really need, should be arriving tomorrow by noon.

[MJW]

No, I didn't realize that, or I wouldn't have made the comment. Because the comment wouldn't have made sense if I did know that?

Please post the link again, I haven't seen it. I'm still very curious what metric can exist to evaluate a field goal kicker besides, you know, kicking accuracy.

And please let me know if my Amazon package comes today. It could be delivered to my second residence, between your ears.

That dildo you ordered, and really need, should be arriving tomorrow by noon.

Wow, I really felt that!

And hey, I'm probably the first woman to ever say those words to you.

[BLT]

No, you’re not actually. But you are the first man.

[Buc2]

Is this guy related to JB or is it JB with a new screen name?

[Backside]

We are a tiny internet community, we’ve moved through several different boards together. Always the same people. But most of you seem to fucking hate each other. Not in a good natured we’ve known each other for decades way, like pure loathing. It’s an odd dynamic.

Just impressions from a guy who never wanders to off-topic. I get the impression that’s where most of the hostilities are born. But yeesh.

[ATrain]

BA said AB probably won't play vs the Falcons.

God damn this ankle injury is getting a little absurd at this point.

Maybe they're just being extra cautious vs the Falcons so he can be good to go for our big games against the Bills and Saints.

[King Bootz]

BA said AB probably won't play vs the Falcons.

God damn this ankle injury is getting a little absurd at this point.

Maybe they're just being extra cautious vs the Falcons so he can be good to go for our big games against the Bills and Saints.

He's not even practicing, which means he's not even getting reps to be prepared to play. This injury is clearly more serious than the team initially expected.

[BLT]

BA said AB probably won't play vs the Falcons.

God damn this ankle injury is getting a little absurd at this point.

Maybe they're just being extra cautious vs the Falcons so he can be good to go for our big games against the Bills and Saints.

IDK they are all big games now after dropping that one to WFT. Sounds like it's just taken longer than expected to heal.

[Backside]

Not quite

[King Bootz]

BA said AB probably won't play vs the Falcons.

God damn this ankle injury is getting a little absurd at this point.

Maybe they're just being extra cautious vs the Falcons so he can be good to go for our big games against the Bills and Saints.

IDK they are all big games now after dropping that one to WFT. Sounds like it's just taken longer than expected to heal.

Exactly. It would only make sense to "rest" players at this point if we're 11-0 with the division clinched. But at 8-3 and #3 in the conference I guarantee no one at OBP is banking on who we "should" beat on paper.

[King Bootz]

Not quite

This makes it sound like an indefinite timeline for return. Not good news at all.

[ATrain]

I don't expect AB back until close to the playoffs then. Brady will just have to make do with Evans, Godwin, Miller, TJ, Gronk, OJ, Brate, Lenny, Rojo, and Gio until he returns.

Poor guy.

[BLT]

Listing anyone other than Evans, Godwin, Gronk, and Fournette is a stretch for the point you're trying to make.

[uscbucsfan]

Listing anyone other than Evans, Godwin, Gronk, and Fournette is a stretch for the point you're trying to make.

AB is also the best and most trusted by Brady outside of Gronk.

[King Bootz]

Should've put him on IR. At this rate he might wind up there anyway.

[ATrain]

Minus Gronk and Gio, the players listed are what attracted Brady to the Bucs in the first place.

[King Bootz]

Minus Gronk and Gio, the players listed are what attracted Brady to the Bucs in the first place.

TJ wasn't drafted yet and Fournette was still a Jaguar, kiddo.

[ATrain]

Minus Gronk and Gio, the players listed are what attracted Brady to the Bucs in the first place.

TJ wasn't drafted yet and Fournette was still a Jaguar, kiddo.

Just further illustrates my point. Brady has an embarrassment of riches at his disposal. It's up to him to use them.