Welcome Baker Mayfield

[Grahamburn]

Not really. You mentioned tier C as if it's a legit option. Baker shouldn't be getting less than guys like Tua, Herbert, Lawrence, Love, Purdy.

Now I'm confused. haven't you been saying for two seasons now that all those guys are significantly better than Baker? If that's the case, then why wouldn't Baker get paid less than all of them?

Don't want to speak for him, BUT I don't believe he has ever put his name on ranking or anything like that. @CannonFire has him 22nd though.

[Bootz]

Not really. You mentioned tier C as if it's a legit option. Baker shouldn't be getting less than guys like Tua, Herbert, Lawrence, Love, Purdy.

Now I'm confused. haven't you been saying for two seasons now that all those guys are significantly better than Baker? If that's the case, then why wouldn't Baker get paid less than all of them?

So everyone was wrong about him being better than those guys? Mea Culpa. The months of people advocating so hard for him confused me.

So you're saying he should be in tier A or B because he's not as good as the others, right?

[Sooner06]

Now I'm confused. haven't you been saying for two seasons now that all those guys are significantly better than Baker? If that's the case, then why wouldn't Baker get paid less than all of them?

Don't want to speak for him, BUT I don't believe he has ever put his name on ranking or anything like that. @CannonFire has him 22nd though.

I wasn't thinking of an actual ranking Bootz may have posted. Just that he's repeatedly said that those guys are all better QBs than Baker in various conversations. As in, he would prefer to have any of those QBs over Baker as TB's QB. Pretty sure that was him.

[Bootz]

Don't want to speak for him, BUT I don't believe he has ever put his name on ranking or anything like that. @CannonFire has him 22nd though.

I wasn't thinking of an actual ranking Bootz may have posted. Just that he's repeatedly said that those guys are all better QBs than Baker in various conversations. As in, he would prefer to have any of those QBs over Baker as TB's QB. Pretty sure that was him.

What guys?

[__Chef__]

Baker's next contract...

Which tier is more likely?

A 25-35/yr
B 35-45/yr
C 45-55/yr
D 55-65/yr

Given his age relative to his QB peers and where people are slotting him, it should easily be D. Guys making $55mil include Trevor Lawrence, Jordan Love, Dak Prescott, Josh Allen.

So if Baker has a 23/24 type year, and he agrees to anything less than a D tier contract, that would be him "putting team above self", right?

[Bootz]

Given his age relative to his QB peers and where people are slotting him, it should easily be D. Guys making $55mil include Trevor Lawrence, Jordan Love, Dak Prescott, Josh Allen.

So if Baker has a 23/24 type year, and he agrees to anything less than a D tier contract, that would be him "putting team above self", right?

Team above self would be tier A.

[Buc2]

[Grahamburn]

His current contract is already tier A/B, right? He's 19th amongst QB's and is clearly outplaying the deal. If that continues he should expect a raise and we should want to give him one. I don't think he'll go Dak and expect to be the highest paid QB, but regardless of how team oriented he is he's not going to accept anything less than high end of C if he plays like he did last year.

And, if there isn't an extension there could be issues heading into 2026.

[Sooner06]

I wasn't thinking of an actual ranking Bootz may have posted. Just that he's repeatedly said that those guys are all better QBs than Baker in various conversations. As in, he would prefer to have any of those QBs over Baker as TB's QB. Pretty sure that was him.

What guys?

What do you mean? Tua, Love, Purdy, Herberts, Lawrence . . . those same guys you've been touting as 'better than Baker' for awhile now.

[Pirate Life]

So if Baker has a 23/24 type year, and he agrees to anything less than a D tier contract, that would be him "putting team above self", right?

Team above self would be tier A.

There are 15 teams paying their starting QB $45 million plus per year. So, anything that averages out to less than $50m/year is going to be team above self based on the going rate if Mayfield gets anything close to his 24 season and ranks in the top 5 or so production wise for the season. Of course that's if Mayfield is the next QB to sign. No big names that might reset the market that are free agents after 2025 season that I can think of, but could be a contract extension or two for one of the big names that resets the market floor higher.

[Sooner06]

Team above self would be tier A.

There are 15 teams paying their starting QB $45 million plus per year. So, anything that averages out to less than $50m/year is going to be team above self based on the going rate if Mayfield gets anything close to his 24 season and ranks in the top 5 or so production wise for the season. Of course that's if Mayfield is the next QB to sign. No big names that might reset the market that are free agents after 2025 season that I can think of, but could be a contract extension or two for one of the big names that resets the market floor higher.

Was actually wondering about that earlier. Does anyone have a list of the QBs that are scheduled to get an extension this year? I think the big ones have already been done?

[acmillis]

There are 15 teams paying their starting QB $45 million plus per year. So, anything that averages out to less than $50m/year is going to be team above self based on the going rate if Mayfield gets anything close to his 24 season and ranks in the top 5 or so production wise for the season. Of course that's if Mayfield is the next QB to sign. No big names that might reset the market that are free agents after 2025 season that I can think of, but could be a contract extension or two for one of the big names that resets the market floor higher.

Was actually wondering about that earlier. Does anyone have a list of the QBs that are scheduled to get an extension this year? I think the big ones have already been done?

I'm looking at dudes with 2 or less years left on their current deal entering 2025.

I guess you could say Stafford who is "only signed" through 2026, but he's old.
Mr. Mayfield.
Russ
Fields

That's the list....yeah, if I'm Baker and money is important, I wait until one year from now when CJ Stroud (assuming he is good in 2025) signs, and then say..yeah, beat that. If Baker does play on the one year deal (he won't if he has a good 2025), I'd bet all three of my nuts that he'll be earning an AAV of 60+.

[Pirate Life]

Was actually wondering about that earlier. Does anyone have a list of the QBs that are scheduled to get an extension this year? I think the big ones have already been done?

I'm looking at dudes with 2 or less years left on their current deal entering 2025.

I guess you could say Stafford who is "only signed" through 2026, but he's old.
Mr. Mayfield.
Russ
Fields

That's the list....yeah, if I'm Baker and money is important, I wait until one year from now when CJ Stroud (assuming he is good in 2025) signs, and then say..yeah, beat that. If Baker does play on the one year deal (he won't if he has a good 2025), I'd bet all three of my nuts that he'll be earning an AAV of 60+.

And Licht/FO should work on getting the deal done ideally by or shortly after the draft next year to keep the cap number down.

[Bootz]

What guys?

What do you mean? Tua, Love, Purdy, Herberts, Lawrence . . . those same guys you've been touting as 'better than Baker' for awhile now.

WRONG!! BIG TIME!

Tua & Love are in the same tier as Baker IMO and the numbers and their success prove that. I've been the biggest critic of Justin Herbert. He is by far the most overrated QB in football. Miss me with Trevor Lawrence. Purdy is a product of the system.

You have me confused with Cannon.

[Grahamburn]

Team above self would be tier A.

There are 15 teams paying their starting QB $45 million plus per year. So, anything that averages out to less than $50m/year is going to be team above self based on the going rate if Mayfield gets anything close to his 24 season and ranks in the top 5 or so production wise for the season. Of course that's if Mayfield is the next QB to sign. No big names that might reset the market that are free agents after 2025 season that I can think of, but could be a contract extension or two for one of the big names that resets the market floor higher.

This is a good point as there isn't anyone really set to get a new deal soon. The 2020-2021 draft classes have already signed new contracts and there isn't anyone worthy from 2022. Unless Stroud and/or Young get one after year 3 Baker is the only QB really in line for a big extension this off-season.

Assuming he signs an extension he'll be 31. Same age Dak was when he signed his. I think you probably work off of the Goff deal though who was 29 when he signed. It's easily $50M+ per AAV and pushing $200M in practical guarantees and $125M in real guarantees at signing. As the cap continues to rise I'd like to see something with a longer term than 3 years this time.

15% of cap feels like the sweet spot.

[Sooner06]

Was actually wondering about that earlier. Does anyone have a list of the QBs that are scheduled to get an extension this year? I think the big ones have already been done?

I'm looking at dudes with 2 or less years left on their current deal entering 2025.

I guess you could say Stafford who is "only signed" through 2026, but he's old.
Mr. Mayfield.
Russ
Fields

That's the list....yeah, if I'm Baker and money is important, I wait until one year from now when CJ Stroud (assuming he is good in 2025) signs, and then say..yeah, beat that. If Baker does play on the one year deal (he won't if he has a good 2025), I'd bet all three of my nuts that he'll be earning an AAV of 60+.

Cool, thx.

And yeah, i think Stafford's now on the 'year-to-year' part of his career. Doubtful he's going to get another long-term deal at this point, or that he even wants one. So, we'll leave him out of it for now. Russ is probably in the same boat whether he wants to believe it or not. And Fields is a non-factor.

And I would agree that if Baker was really interested in getting the most $$$, he'd wait another year, let guys like Stroud get their $$$ before he enters serious negotiations. in fact, I'd say that if he does wait, then he's listening to his agent, and then I'd be wrong about Baker's intentions.

But it sounds like (at this point) that it'll be relatively quiet on the QB extension front this year, so if Baker gets an offer from Licht at the end of this season or before, and he takes it then chances are decent that it'll be a slightly lower offer than what Stroud will eventually get, and I'll be essentially correct about Mayfield.

[acmillis]

There are 15 teams paying their starting QB $45 million plus per year. So, anything that averages out to less than $50m/year is going to be team above self based on the going rate if Mayfield gets anything close to his 24 season and ranks in the top 5 or so production wise for the season. Of course that's if Mayfield is the next QB to sign. No big names that might reset the market that are free agents after 2025 season that I can think of, but could be a contract extension or two for one of the big names that resets the market floor higher.

This is a good point as there isn't anyone really set to get a new deal soon. The 2020-2021 draft classes have already signed new contracts and there isn't anyone worthy from 2022. Unless Stroud and/or Young get one after year 3 Baker is the only QB really in line for a big extension this off-season.

Assuming he signs an extension he'll be 31. Same age Dak was when he signed his. I think you probably work off of the Goff deal though who was 29 when he signed. It's easily $50M+ per AAV and pushing $200M in practical guarantees and $125M in real guarantees at signing. As the cap continues to rise I'd like to see something with a longer term than 3 years this time.

15% of cap feels like the sweet spot.

If the cap increases say, 10% for 2026, it'll be at +/- 307M in 2026. 15% of that is "just" 46m. Not a chance Baker (IF HE HAS A GOOD 2025) signs for that AAV. That'd be insulting to him if we offer that "little." I think we (me especially, being the President of the Baker Haters club) need to come to terms with the fact that, again, assuming he performs well in 2025, will be one of, if not the, highest paid QBs in the NFL. We're talking 200m guaranteed and, likely, a 60m/year AAV.

YUCK!

[Sooner06]

What do you mean? Tua, Love, Purdy, Herberts, Lawrence . . . those same guys you've been touting as 'better than Baker' for awhile now.

WRONG!! BIG TIME!

Tua & Love are in the same tier as Baker IMO and the numbers and their success prove that. I've been the biggest critic of Justin Herbert. He is by far the most overrated QB in football. Miss me with Trevor Lawrence. Purdy is a product of the system.

You have me confused with Cannon.

Ah, okay my bad. I got you confused with someone else. Apologies.

[CannonFire]

Hey, when I had Mayfield in the top 20, I was being generous. I was trying to make you guys feel good. I'd probably have ranked in the late 30's. He's probably just outside of the top 5 backups. I'd put him right behind Mac Jones and one spot ahead of Winston.

[Backside]

Mask off

[Grahamburn]

This is a good point as there isn't anyone really set to get a new deal soon. The 2020-2021 draft classes have already signed new contracts and there isn't anyone worthy from 2022. Unless Stroud and/or Young get one after year 3 Baker is the only QB really in line for a big extension this off-season.

Assuming he signs an extension he'll be 31. Same age Dak was when he signed his. I think you probably work off of the Goff deal though who was 29 when he signed. It's easily $50M+ per AAV and pushing $200M in practical guarantees and $125M in real guarantees at signing. As the cap continues to rise I'd like to see something with a longer term than 3 years this time.

15% of cap feels like the sweet spot.

If the cap increases say, 10% for 2026, it'll be at +/- 307M in 2026. 15% of that is "just" 46m. Not a chance Baker (IF HE HAS A GOOD 2025) signs for that AAV. That'd be insulting to him if we offer that "little." I think we (me especially, being the President of the Baker Haters club) need to come to terms with the fact that, again, assuming he performs well in 2025, will be one of, if not the, highest paid QBs in the NFL. We're talking 200m guaranteed and, likely, a 60m/year AAV.

YUCK!

Obviously dealing with a significant amount of variables in how the cap hits work. And, you're right, most of the top guys are closer to that 20% figure in terms of % of cap. I guess that's why I think it's a sweet spot to be closer to 15%.

[CannonFire]

Here's the serious response and I've said it a million times, but people want to make it out that I think he sucks. Mayfield is one of like 20 guys who are same guy in different situations. The ONLY people who should be paid a lot, are the elites... like Mahomes and Burrow (I'm not even sure Jackson and Allen belong with those two), but I digress. After those few, NO ONE should be making more than like $25M AAV. Of course, many will be triggered, but notice, I'm including guys like Dak, Lawrence, Hurts, Goff, Stafford, etc, all in this, so it's not a "Baker Mayfield" issue... it's a league-wide issue. I just don't think the Bucs should be stupid like the Jags, Cowboys, Lions, Eagles, Rams, etc, and pay these guys a ton of money when they'd be better off spending on the OLine and DLine, then the offensive supporting cast. If you have a great OLine and DLine, then add in 1 great WR, and a solid backfield, literally any starting caliber QB in the NFL, would get that team to a winning record.

I have no problem with Mayfield, I just wouldn't pay him a lot of money. I'd rather spend it elsewhere. Now, I fully expect them to do something stupid like give him a 4 year $220M deal, but that's because they allowed themselves to be put in that situation. Me, I'd offer him a 7 year $175M deal that's $25M every year, and they're all guaranteed. See that haters, I have no problem locking him in for 7 more years and paying him. Would any of you lock him in for 7 years where you can't get out of it without taking a big hit?

[CannonFire]

What do you mean? Tua, Love, Purdy, Herberts, Lawrence . . . those same guys you've been touting as 'better than Baker' for awhile now.

WRONG!! BIG TIME!

Tua & Love are in the same tier as Baker IMO and the numbers and their success prove that. I've been the biggest critic of Justin Herbert. He is by far the most overrated QB in football. Miss me with Trevor Lawrence. Purdy is a product of the system.

You have me confused with Cannon.

There's like 20 QB's that are in the same tier as Baker. Casual's just feel the need to rank them to make themselves feel better.

[Grahamburn]

Why is Burrow considered elite? He has missed the playoffs two years in a row. He also can’t overcome a bad defense. He arguably has had a better supporting cast on offense. He also has significant injury history.

[Snake]

Because he wears funny outfits and acts confident.

He’s also white and good-looking.

[Backside]

Here's the serious response and I've said it a million times, but people want to make it out that I think he sucks. Mayfield is one of like 20 guys who are same guy in different situations. The ONLY people who should be paid a lot, are the elites... like Mahomes and Burrow (I'm not even sure Jackson and Allen belong with those two), but I digress. After those few, NO ONE should be making more than like $25M AAV. Of course, many will be triggered, but notice, I'm including guys like Dak, Lawrence, Hurts, Goff, Stafford, etc, all in this, so it's not a "Baker Mayfield" issue... it's a league-wide issue. I just don't think the Bucs should be stupid like the Jags, Cowboys, Lions, Eagles, Rams, etc, and pay these guys a ton of money when they'd be better off spending on the OLine and DLine, then the offensive supporting cast. If you have a great OLine and DLine, then add in 1 great WR, and a solid backfield, literally any starting caliber QB in the NFL, would get that team to a winning record.

I have no problem with Mayfield, I just wouldn't pay him a lot of money. I'd rather spend it elsewhere. Now, I fully expect them to do something stupid like give him a 4 year $220M deal, but that's because they allowed themselves to be put in that situation. Me, I'd offer him a 7 year $175M deal that's $25M every year, and they're all guaranteed. See that haters, I have no problem locking him in for 7 more years and paying him. Would any of you lock him in for 7 years where you can't get out of it without taking a big hit?

Genuinely, I understand the point you’re making here, and your overall stance. The following is not specific to Baker at all, just trying to better understand your QB evaluation process:

Do you really believe that after the very top tier, and until you get to the bottom of the barrel, that there is basically no differentiating at all between professional QBs? Of course situation and team contribute to success or failure, that goes for every single QB, including the elite ones. But that doesn’t mean they are all the same player and situation is all that matters for them. What if you put the right guy (skillset, attitude, leadership, etc) into just the right situation? If he thrives there do you genuinely think that you could take any of the other ~20 from this group you mention and the results would be the same? Even if you are all in on the situation being more important than anything, surely you’d never argue that the skillsets, strengths, weaknesses, and intangibles of all those guys are also the same. The right QB to the right situation also has to matter. And the wrong guy, right situation, right guy, wrong situation, etc would all be possible outcomes when we discuss this group of QBs who you say can’t be differentiated. That’s where I really bump up against the “mix and match any of these ‘average’ guys” theory, it just seems like a massive oversimplification of something these billion dollar entities have been trying and failing to get right for decades.

I don’t disagree with you on Burrow at all. I think he’s near the top of any best QB list. But based on how you do the evaluation, it kind of seems like he ruins your whole theory because you put him at that very top level. So why did he miss the playoffs last year playing all 17 games with a career season as a QB and one of the best WR seasons in recent memory by his future HoF teammate? I know that personally I can say he did about as much as can reasonably be expected, and his atrocious defense let him down. But doesn’t that argument not really fly with you? Doesn’t he NEED to elevate his team and find a way to win one of the first three games of the season which were all one score games (10 points against the Patriots? Oof)? If you say “I watch this dude and it’s very obvious what he is as a QB results be damned” I certainly wouldn’t argue against it, but again that would seem like you’d be opening up to the idea that there is more context that is worth considering.


TLDR: I just really don’t think it’s anywhere near as simple and black and white as you make it out to be.

[Grahamburn]

Because he wears funny outfits and acts confident.

He’s also white and good-looking.

Right?

He rode a hot streak from his defense and an easy playoff draw to a Super Bowl loss 3 years ago.

I always see him with the elites. Just curious why. He’s not doing anything these other guys aren’t doing.

[Bootz]

Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are in contract negotiations. He has just this year and next on his deal. He'll be the next mega extension.

[Bootz]

Why is Burrow considered elite? He has missed the playoffs two years in a row. He also can’t overcome a bad defense. He arguably has had a better supporting cast on offense. He also has significant injury history.

Ask NFL circles. @Snake isnt wrong. Same reasons Justin Herbert is seen as elite. Same reasons Josh Allen is seen as better than Patrick Mahomes. But people never want to have an honest conversation there.

[Buc2]

What do you mean? Tua, Love, Purdy, Herberts, Lawrence . . . those same guys you've been touting as 'better than Baker' for awhile now.

WRONG!! BIG TIME!

Tua & Love are in the same tier as Baker IMO and the numbers and their success prove that. I've been the biggest critic of Justin Herbert. He is by far the most overrated QB in football. Miss me with Trevor Lawrence. Purdy is a product of the system.

You have me confused with Cannon.

That’s what I thought, too. He was describing CF, not you.

[__Chef__]

I'd offer him a 7 year $175M deal that's $25M every year, and they're all guaranteed.

Why would Baker agree to that deal? That's a deal you give to a solid, steady backup QB who doesn't turn the ball over, but doesn't risk and win you the game either. This is "I have an elite defense and team around my solidly unspectacular QB who isn't going to ruin the teams playoff runs for the next 7 years" contract. That's not this team and that's not Baker Mayfield.

Do something like a 5 year 50/yr, no guarantees deal and if he starts stinking it up and/or there's an opportunity to go get a superstar can't lose guy ... like oh I dunno, Deshaun Watson ... then great. The contract isn't locking anyone down, and it isn't insultingly underpaying him while he's here either.

I get your contention about overpaying for talent that is less than elite. But I'd much rather be paying Baker Mayfield Purdy's contract than Purdy.

[Grahamburn]

He wouldn’t. Nobody is agreeing to 7+ year deals unless they’re groundbreaking.

[Bootz]

He wouldn’t. Nobody is agreeing to 7+ year deals unless they’re groundbreaking.

Exactly. Has to be a eye opening number like Mahomes 10 year/$500mil deal was.

[__Chef__]

Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are in contract negotiations. He has just this year and next on his deal. He'll be the next mega extension.

They can't just hold on for a year? Gotta go resetting the entire market again and screwing up our cap situation. We're going to have to do a stupidly high signing bonus to keep the team together for the next couple years before Evans retires. That Godwin contract extension is looking more foolish by the day.

This is why we can't have nice things.

[__Chef__]

Same reasons Josh Allen is seen as better than Patrick Mahomes.

I live a sheltered life, so pardon this take, but who's saying Josh Allen is better than Mahomes?

Doesn't Mahomes answer this debate every year when he's the bouncer preventing Josh from getting in the club?