2022 Offseason Thread

[MJW]

@MJW The point about the Chiefs wasn’t to lament.

The point about the Chiefs is that its a nuke from orbit to the misbegotten premise that x-year draft capital doesn’t/can’t turn into meaningful (if not titanic) immediate returns.

That already falsified hypothesis gets thrown around these parts a lot despite a robust suite of contravening evidence (of which the Chiefs are the mother load because not only did they do it, not only was it titanic returns, but their draft capital was basically the same as ours!).

The bottom line is this - everything is possible if you draft well, and succeeding is impossible if you don't. Every other machination, plot, scheme, strategy, etc, is meaningless if you can't hit your picks.

[MJW]

The only hope that I have is this: this front office built the Súper Bowl team. Most of that team was drafted & a number of key players were drafted in 2020 proving @Nobody’s point that rookie picks can make a difference on a SB team.

If Licht has a gift for picking a particular group I’d say it’s OL which we just so happen to need badly now. The draft depth lines up well for our OL/DL needs. Now it’s up to Licht to make the right calls.

I believe Licht can do it again.

I think he CAN do it again. But we have to be committed to the youth movement. This team was almost built from the ground up starting in 2018, after Licht basically blew his first attempt at building a roster through free agency between 2014-2017. We need 2018 Licht, not the guy who paid Michael Johnson and Anthony Collins looking for a quick fix.

[Primeminister]

The only hope that I have is this: this front office built the Súper Bowl team. Most of that team was drafted & a number of key players were drafted in 2020 proving @Nobody’s point that rookie picks can make a difference on a SB team.

If Licht has a gift for picking a particular group I’d say it’s OL which we just so happen to need badly now. The draft depth lines up well for our OL/DL needs. Now it’s up to Licht to make the right calls.

I believe Licht can do it again.

I think he CAN do it again. But we have to be committed to the youth movement. This team was almost built from the ground up starting in 2018, after Licht basically blew his first attempt at building a roster through free agency between 2014-2017. We need 2018 Licht, not the guy who paid Michael Johnson and Anthony Collins looking for a quick fix.

That’s not quite fair. Licht got better at drafting then also landed the biggest FA haul of all time in Brady + Gronk, Lenny etc. I don’t see why one draft should signal he forgot 2018-2020. We have proof he can build a team using a combination of both approaches.

[MJW]

I think he CAN do it again. But we have to be committed to the youth movement. This team was almost built from the ground up starting in 2018, after Licht basically blew his first attempt at building a roster through free agency between 2014-2017. We need 2018 Licht, not the guy who paid Michael Johnson and Anthony Collins looking for a quick fix.

That’s not quite fair. Licht got better at drafting then also landed the biggest FA haul of all time in Brady + Gronk, Lenny etc. I don’t see why one draft should signal he forgot 2018-2020. We have proof he can build a team using a combination of both approaches.

The drafting is what matters. We need to nail 3 or 4 drafts before a Brady-like opportunity will matter. My main point is, we have to commit to building the next Bucs Superbowl contender, not trying to keep this one afloat. If we try to plug holes with money like we did 2014-2017, we'll just extend the rebuild.

[Snake]

I think he CAN do it again. But we have to be committed to the youth movement. This team was almost built from the ground up starting in 2018, after Licht basically blew his first attempt at building a roster through free agency between 2014-2017. We need 2018 Licht, not the guy who paid Michael Johnson and Anthony Collins looking for a quick fix.

That’s not quite fair. Licht got better at drafting then also landed the biggest FA haul of all time in Brady + Gronk, Lenny etc. I don’t see why one draft should signal he forgot 2018-2020. We have proof he can build a team using a combination of both approaches.

The retconning of Leonard Fournette has been interesting to witness. In 2020, he was a mid-season release who cleared waivers. He was cut because no team was interested in trading for him. the Buccaneers picked up because Tom Brady wanted him. He was then re-signed in 2021 for $3m.

His addition and subsequent taking over of the RB reps speaks more to the lack of quality that was in the room.

[mdb1958]

@Nobody The same year we drafted Vea (2018) we could of had Mailata who did the combine as a DT.


Would of cost us a 6th

[mdb1958]

That’s not quite fair. Licht got better at drafting then also landed the biggest FA haul of all time in Brady + Gronk, Lenny etc. I don’t see why one draft should signal he forgot 2018-2020. We have proof he can build a team using a combination of both approaches.

The retconning of Leonard Fournette has been interesting to witness. In 2020, he was a mid-season release who cleared waivers. He was cut because no team was interested in trading for him. the Buccaneers picked up because Tom Brady wanted him. He was then re-signed in 2021 for $3m.

His addition and subsequent taking over of the RB reps speaks more to the lack of quality that was in the room.

Brady went where Brady wanted to go and he got who he wanted to come with him.

[nybf]

@Nobody The same year we drafted Vea (2018) we could of had Mailata who did the combine as a DT.


Would of cost us a 6th

The word you're looking for is "have"

could have
would have

[Buc2]

They looked at their 53, their salary cap situation, and their division/conference, and said "We're not close right now." So they're going ahead, clearing cap room with older players like Wagner, and dealing aging assets like Wilson.

This is the way. No half-measures. No "let's try to go 10-7 and see what happens."

I wish OBP would fully embrace this mentality. Instead, we're most likely going to spackle and pray. And to be clear, the Seahawks were no further away from competing with Wilson than we are without Brady.

Yeah, but the Seahawks know how to actually rebuild a team and actually build a consistent contender(even if they've forgotten recently).

We don't. I don't blame OBP for holding on for any semblance of hope possible as everyone knows the second we accept that rebuild mentality...it's officially over. We go back to the team that has two (barely) winning seasons a decade and spends most of the years picking in the top 10.

Then they (OBP) need to learn how. There are a few people in this forum that have an excellent grasp of how to do that. If OBP can't figure it out, that's pretty pathetic, imo.

[MJW]

Yeah, but the Seahawks know how to actually rebuild a team and actually build a consistent contender(even if they've forgotten recently).

We don't. I don't blame OBP for holding on for any semblance of hope possible as everyone knows the second we accept that rebuild mentality...it's officially over. We go back to the team that has two (barely) winning seasons a decade and spends most of the years picking in the top 10.

Then they (OBP) need to learn how. There are a few people in this forum that have an excellent grasp of how to do that. If OBP can't figure it out, that's pretty pathetic, imo.

I hope I'm wrong, but I just can't imagine BA putting the long-term health of the franchise ahead of his short-term success before he goes out the door. Not many coaches would, especially since Arians has a decent chance at the Hall and going 7-27 over two rebuilding years ends that.

Hope I'm wrong, again.

[uscbucsfan]

They looked at their 53, their salary cap situation, and their division/conference, and said "We're not close right now." So they're going ahead, clearing cap room with older players like Wagner, and dealing aging assets like Wilson.

This is the way. No half-measures. No "let's try to go 10-7 and see what happens."

I wish OBP would fully embrace this mentality. Instead, we're most likely going to spackle and pray. And to be clear, the Seahawks were no further away from competing with Wilson than we are without Brady.

Yeah, but the Seahawks know how to actually rebuild a team and actually build a consistent contender(even if they've forgotten recently).

We don't. I don't blame OBP for holding on for any semblance of hope possible as everyone knows the second we accept that rebuild mentality...it's officially over. We go back to the team that has two (barely) winning seasons a decade and spends most of the years picking in the top 10.

They once built a contender and since then have had a shit roster with an elite QB and good WRs.

[Dread]

Seahawks release Bobby Wagner. Scored earth in Seattle.

They looked at their 53, their salary cap situation, and their division/conference, and said "We're not close right now." So they're going ahead, clearing cap room with older players like Wagner, and dealing aging assets like Wilson.

This is the way. No half-measures. No "let's try to go 10-7 and see what happens."

I wish OBP would fully embrace this mentality. Instead, we're most likely going to spackle and pray. And to be clear, the Seahawks were no further away from competing with Wilson than we are without Brady.

No offense, but I think you're wrong in the sense this Bucs roster has MUCH more talent than that Seahawks roster does. The Bucs are literally better at every position group and significantly better at most. They obviously had a huge advantage at QB w/ Russ, but now that's gone.

I also disagree we're likely to 'spackle and pray'. We're letting JPP, Lenny, and probably Suh all walk in Free Agency. Other than Lavonte what older vets are hanging onto?

This offseason is just a transition to a post-Brady life. We went all in the past two season (which resulted in a Lombardi and streak where we won 22 of 26 games we played) so we are going to have some cap constraints and high level of roster turnover.

Come next offseason our cap situation will be back to being in favorable shape and only a few pending free agents.

The core of our team is still uber talented so cupboard isn't bare like it is in Seattle.

We just need to figure out the QB position while Licht and the FO stay hot in the draft. But for the same reason Tom Brady decided to sign here will be the same reason we could potentially lure another really good QB, which is the roster is ready to win.

Unlike this offseason, we'll be in much better financial/cap position to go after a QB.

For better or worse it's smart to keep the QB cap hit low in 2022 while retaining as many of the core young talent as we can.

[Dread]

Yeah, but the Seahawks know how to actually rebuild a team and actually build a consistent contender(even if they've forgotten recently).

We don't. I don't blame OBP for holding on for any semblance of hope possible as everyone knows the second we accept that rebuild mentality...it's officially over. We go back to the team that has two (barely) winning seasons a decade and spends most of the years picking in the top 10.

They once built a contender and since then have had a shit roster with an elite QB and good WRs.

The Seahawks hit the lottery with a few draft classes in b2b years around 2009/2010 when Wilson, Wagner, Sherman, etc were all drafted.

Since then they've been absolutely terrible at roster construction and have blown multiple 1st round picks on busts.

[Miller4Prez64]

Then they (OBP) need to learn how. There are a few people in this forum that have an excellent grasp of how to do that. If OBP can't figure it out, that's pretty pathetic, imo.

I hope I'm wrong, but I just can't imagine BA putting the long-term health of the franchise ahead of his short-term success before he goes out the door. Not many coaches would, especially since Arians has a decent chance at the Hall and going 7-27 over two rebuilding years ends that.

Hope I'm wrong, again.

I wish Bruce just retired/left. I like him as a coach and will cherish the Lombardi, but it’s no longer the right fit going forward and I worry that he will ruin our future in his half assed attempt to be competitive with this roster without a QB.

Sometimes I wonder if Bruce is sick of Brady always getting the credit while he and his staff get dumped on and wants to “prove people wrong” by winning with a trash QB. If that’s the case he will likely only just end up proving the doubters right.

[BearLandBucFan]

I hope I'm wrong, but I just can't imagine BA putting the long-term health of the franchise ahead of his short-term success before he goes out the door. Not many coaches would, especially since Arians has a decent chance at the Hall and going 7-27 over two rebuilding years ends that.

Hope I'm wrong, again.

I wish Bruce just retired/left. I like him as a coach and will cherish the Lombardi, but it’s no longer the right fit going forward and I worry that he will ruin our future in his half assed attempt to be competitive with this roster without a QB.

Sometimes I wonder if Bruce is sick of Brady always getting the credit while he and his staff get dumped on and wants to “prove people wrong” by winning with a trash QB. If that’s the case he will likely only just end up proving the doubters right.

I don't get the sense, at the moment, that we plan to try to risk the future to win now. I just don't see this a a full rebuild. Most of the Vets we had last year won't be back as we simply don't have the money. What we don't need right now is a management transition too. As that will almost certainly equate to a new HC in 2022, 2024, and possibly again 2026.

[Sdbucs]

Khalil Mack to the Chargers

[King Bootz]

Khalil Mack to the Chargers

Won't help their head coach problem.

[mdb1958]

Sounds like partial rebuilds all over the place. Fresh asset time...

[mdb1958]

Big contracts/trophy/hurt the roster

[King Bootz]

Won't help their head coach problem.

I'm just rooting them not to carry a kicker all season. Go for it or punt.

I didn't realize they even had a punter. Thought Coach Yolo sent him packing too.

[King Bootz]

What Jenna failed to mention is the $7mil+ dead cap hit that also was incurred in putting him on the retirement list. As a result we are currently over the salary cap by $8-10mil depending on if you ask OTC or Spotrac.

To make matters worse, we are the only team that's sitting over the cap with less than 51 players under contract. So when Licht & Greenberg get back from vacation Tuesday around noon, I expect a flurry of moves. Some unexpected.

[MJW]

What Jenna failed to mention is the $7mil+ dead cap hit that also was incurred in putting him on the retirement list. As a result we are currently over the salary cap by $8-10mil depending on if you ask OTC or Spotrac.

To make matters worse, we are the only team that's sitting over the cap with less than 51 players under contract. So when Licht & Greenberg get back from vacation Tuesday around noon, I expect a flurry of moves. Some unexpected.

Here's a good article on some options:

https://www.si.com/nfl/buccaneers/news/ ... space-2022

To Sum Up: We can restructure Shaq, D Smith, Vea, and LVD. The writer posits that doing all four will combine to save around $36 mil. We can also save $5 mil by cutting Cam Brate.

A couple of these are probably inevitable because we have to get under the cap and field a roster. But taken to the extreme, this is my nightmare, because it will kick the cap hits down the road for the purpose of going 10-7 this year. Then when we need that cap space to extend Dean, or Winfield, or Wirfs (etc) it might not be there.

We need Licht to go back into 2017-2020 "no dead money" mode, at least as much as is possible.

[MJW]

For the record, we can also save:

$2.5 Mil by cutting Ryan Succop. This seems like a no-brainer to me, curse of Matt Bryant be damned.
$2.5 Mil by cutting Nacho. I know we're hurting for depth on the DL, but he's a replacement-level player.
$2.5 Mil by cutting Bradley Pinion. I'd miss his touchbacks but again, times are tough.
$1.3 Mil by cutting Ross Cockrell. It should kind of depend on if we pay Davis.

[King Bootz]

What Jenna failed to mention is the $7mil+ dead cap hit that also was incurred in putting him on the retirement list. As a result we are currently over the salary cap by $8-10mil depending on if you ask OTC or Spotrac.

To make matters worse, we are the only team that's sitting over the cap with less than 51 players under contract. So when Licht & Greenberg get back from vacation Tuesday around noon, I expect a flurry of moves. Some unexpected.

Here's a good article on some options:

https://www.si.com/nfl/buccaneers/news/ ... space-2022

To Sum Up: We can restructure Shaq, D Smith, Vea, and LVD. The writer posits that doing all four will combine to save around $36 mil. We can also save $5 mil by cutting Cam Brate.

A couple of these are probably inevitable because we have to get under the cap and field a roster. But taken to the extreme, this is my nightmare, because it will kick the cap hits down the road for the purpose of going 10-7 this year. Then when we need that cap space to extend Dean, or Winfield, or Wirfs (etc) it might not be there.

We need Licht to go back into 2017-2020 "no dead money" mode, at least as much as is possible.

It would be very telling if we restructured Vea's contract before it ever really kicked in.

Kicking the can down the road is what got us in this pickle. Who takes up the majority of the dead cap space? Ndamukong Suh & Rob Gronkowski. $14mil combined thanks to those voidable years put on 1 year contracts.

Furthermore, Shaq, LVD, and D Smith all have voidable years on their contracts. So any restructuring simply adds to those eventual dead cap hits coming up.

To say the least, we aren't necessarily paying the price for the Super Bowl win. We're paying the price for the insatiable desire OBP had to keep the band together by any means.

I wouldn't opt to create that cap room by restructuring all of those deals. Licht needs to do actual scouting/GM work. Find your Shaq Barrett, Cam Brate types in FA. Get back to building through the draft. Get back to savvy JPP like trades.

And most importantly play the business game of football. You have to stay fluid and evolve in this league. That means knowing when to move on and knowing when it's time to improve.

Last offseason had zero to do with fielding the best team possible. It was all about a newsworthy feel good story of bringing back everyone from the Super Bowl winning team. In reality we brought back a very old, aging roster and paid the price for it when this team wore down as the year went on.

I think he needs to cut some of the fat. Might mean letting good players go. But we can't afford to turn into the Saints who deal with this annually and quietly get worse because of it.

[King Bootz]

For the record, we can also save:

$2.5 Mil by cutting Ryan Succop. This seems like a no-brainer to me, curse of Matt Bryant be damned.
$2.5 Mil by cutting Nacho. I know we're hurting for depth on the DL, but he's a replacement-level player.
$2.5 Mil by cutting Bradley Pinion. I'd miss his touchbacks but again, times are tough.
$1.3 Mil by cutting Ross Cockrell. It should kind of depend on if we pay Davis.

If you told me we could save $8mil+ by cutting 4 replacement level 30+ vets, seems like a no-brainer.

[MJW]

For the record, we can also save:

$2.5 Mil by cutting Ryan Succop. This seems like a no-brainer to me, curse of Matt Bryant be damned.
$2.5 Mil by cutting Nacho. I know we're hurting for depth on the DL, but he's a replacement-level player.
$2.5 Mil by cutting Bradley Pinion. I'd miss his touchbacks but again, times are tough.
$1.3 Mil by cutting Ross Cockrell. It should kind of depend on if we pay Davis.

If you told me we could save $8mil+ by cutting 4 replacement level 30+ vets, seems like a no-brainer.

Word.

[King Bootz]

[Dread]

Cutting Nacho doesn't make much sense imo given the assumption is we aren't re-signing Suh.

I'm all for new specialists on rookie contracts to save cap.

But Nacho doesn't make much and fits well in our defense. He's going to be an inexpensive starter.

[Snake]

I’d like that for Carlton. He’d look good in black and yellow.

[Nobody]

I have to say...

It is shocking how clueless Bucs fans are about how well-rounded and how good and diverse of a cover man CD3 is. I'm routinely seeing a "meh" or "over-rated." Sometimes being a Bucs fan is embarassing. I feel like we might be the most peer-contagion infected fanbase in the league. We collectively fawn over the optics of a player and disregard their actual play and memetic nonsense runs wild in the stead of analysis and understanding. With CD3, its like all people remember is that numbskullery of a gameplan in the regular season against the Chiefs which featured him in Press Man on Tyreek Hill with no help over the top. There isn't a CB in the NFL that would have any chance there and there are scant few in history that would (and those guys all played in the era where their 5 yard and beyond contact would get whistled over and over today). And then fans think "well he doesn't get picks" as if that was a significant part of being a highly effective CB for a great defense in football.

The drop-off between CD3 and Dean is quite large in every kind of Zone Coverage, Match Quarters processing, defending in-cuts, run support, and especially defending perimeter Screens. The overall drop-off between CD3 and SMB is hard even encapsulate without going straight to what sounds like hyperbole nukes.

Our CB room is going to be way, way, way worse next year than its been the last 3 years with CD3.

SMB's combine athletic profile doesn't remotely transfer to his play. He still has all kinds of technical holes. His ability to read route language or intuit route combinations is still poor and slow. His confidence appears easily shaken after he loses in Man coverage (and he does that routinely). Almost every pick he has made is the product of either (a) a fluke (bad throw that deflected after SMB was actually beaten badly) or (b) the byproduct of another player generating a tip drill and him being in the vicinity. The idea that he is going to featured next year just makes me wince. I'm tired of watching him like I was tired of VH3 like I was tired of MJ Stewart like I was tired of Justin Evans.

Of the 5 DBs we've hit on in the last 8 years (CD3, Whitehead, Winfield...I'm going to tentatively put Dean and Edwards in the "hit" category even though Dean is a limited CB who is a very good Man and MQ coverage player but with injury/tackling/run support/Zone issues and Edwards needs to exhibit much more assignment integrity and tackling consistency to go along with his play-making), we're probably about to see two of them exit without a 2nd contract. That sucks. You really have to sign your DB hits to 2nd contracts in a league where DB play and DB depth is paramount.

This draft needs to load up on DBs, iOL, and iDL.

[Swashbuckler]

For the record, we can also save:

$2.5 Mil by cutting Ryan Succop. This seems like a no-brainer to me, curse of Matt Bryant be damned.
$2.5 Mil by cutting Nacho. I know we're hurting for depth on the DL, but he's a replacement-level player.
$2.5 Mil by cutting Bradley Pinion. I'd miss his touchbacks but again, times are tough.
$1.3 Mil by cutting Ross Cockrell. It should kind of depend on if we pay Davis.

Not in favor of cutting Succop. After all the years of shit kicking I'm not interested in going through that again. Imagine Brady comes back and we can't make a routine kick

[MJW]

For the record, we can also save:

$2.5 Mil by cutting Ryan Succop. This seems like a no-brainer to me, curse of Matt Bryant be damned.
$2.5 Mil by cutting Nacho. I know we're hurting for depth on the DL, but he's a replacement-level player.
$2.5 Mil by cutting Bradley Pinion. I'd miss his touchbacks but again, times are tough.
$1.3 Mil by cutting Ross Cockrell. It should kind of depend on if we pay Davis.

Not in favor of cutting Succop. After all the years of shit kicking I'm not interested in going through that again. Imagine Brady comes back and we can't make a routine kick

Succop is an average 80% type kicker who had a career year in 2020, got paid like he was a stud, and then immediately returned to be the average kicker he was for the previous decade. I'll play the odds that we'll find another 80% kicker cheaper.

[Dread]

Licht seems to be good at drafting kickers....


DO IT DOM!

He did draft a pro-bowl kicker in 2019 in the 5th round But b/c he wasn't a pro bowler as a rookie we released him so we can overpay Ryan Succup. Which I will say was the right move when we signed Brady and could risk having an inconsistent kicker.

But not that Brady is gone and the Bucs are in a transition it makes sense to save money on specialists imo. Not necessarily drafting a kicker, but getting a cheap one.

I'm ready for the Bucs to be a sloppy team again with turnovers and missed kicks.

[MJW]

Licht seems to be good at drafting kickers....


DO IT DOM!

He did draft a pro-bowl kicker in 2019 in the 5th round But b/c he wasn't a pro bowler as a rookie we released him so we can overpay Ryan Succup. Which I will say was the right move when we signed Brady and could risk having an inconsistent kicker.

But not that Brady is gone and the Bucs are in a transition it makes sense to save money on specialists imo. Not necessarily drafting a kicker, but getting a cheap one.

I'm ready for the Bucs to be a sloppy team again with turnovers and missed kicks.

This basically. Having an expensive kicker on a shitty NFL team is like having an expensive closer on a shitty baseball team. Succop is an 80% guy. We could sign, I dunno, Joey Slye who has practically an identical career FG rate, for $800K.

I think losing Pinion's kickoffs would hurt us much more than replacing Succop with some jackass off the street.

[King Bootz]

OBP is very quiet so far and so close to the start of the league year. Only 47 players under contract, $10mil over the salary cap, no solution at QB. Not a good thing.