Who's the 3rd?

[King Bootz]

We havent had one of these kind of discussions in a while so here goes a bit of nostalgia. Saw a tweet this morning that was pretty accurate and raised a good question.



Yes, Brady and Rodgers are still around and last year were the top QBs. But this is a young mans game and Mahomes and Allen are clearly 1 & 2 right now for this generation. There are a lot of good young QBs who have strong cases for being #3 in the hierarchy. Let's look at some candidates.

Joe Burrow- 14-16-1 record. 56 TDs/24 INTs. 2021 Comeback POTY. 3-1 playoff record. Lost Superbowl in his 2nd season.

Justin Herbert- 18-19 record. 79 TDs/27 INTs. 2020 Rookie OTY. 1 Pro Bowl. Never been to playoffs.

Lamar Jackson- 40-14 record. 96 TDs/36 INTs. 2019 NFL MVP. 1 1st Team All-Pro. 2 Pro Bowls. 1-3 playoff record.

Kyler Murray- 24-26-1 record. 76 TDs/37 INTs. 2019 Rookie OTY. 2 Pro Bowls. 0-1 playoff record.

Dak Prescott- 53-33 record. 143 TDs/51 INTs. 2016 Rookie OTY. 2 Pro Bowls. 1-3 playoff record.

Tua Tagovailoa- 16-9 record. 35 TDs/18 INTs. Never been to playoffs.

Who do you think #3 is?

[Snake]

Of the young pups? That’s tough.

Who is Joe Burrow, actually? That’s the question I have.

[Backside]

I put Lamar, Herbert, and Burrow in a tier above the other three. Voted Lamar because he's done the most.

[The Outsider]

I don't think you can argue against Lamar at this point. Burrow and Herbert have a chance to move in to one of those spots eventually, their bodies of work are pretty small right now. Kyler might be the most overrated QB in the NFL not named Russell Wilson. Dak is a very-good-not-great QB, and Tua has brain damage.

[The Outsider]

Of the young pups? That’s tough.

Who is Joe Burrow, actually? That’s the question I have.

I think Burrow is a somewhat less turnover prone Favre with better mobility. His offensive line is putrid, so I'm hesitating to judge this season so far. Rookie year he was blowing the fuck up before his knee injury and last year he and that receiving corps, and the pass rush willed that team to the Super Bowl and almost beat KC.

Probably would have if Burrow hadn't have gotten hurt during the game.

[Snake]

Of the young pups? That’s tough.

Who is Joe Burrow, actually? That’s the question I have.

I think Burrow is a somewhat less turnover prone Favre with better mobility. His offensive line is putrid, so I'm hesitating to judge this season so far. Rookie year he was blowing the fuck up before his knee injury and last year he and that receiving corps, and the pass rush willed that team to the Super Bowl and almost beat KC.

Probably would have if Burrow hadn't have gotten hurt during the game.

That sounds right to me. Burrow is gonna put the ball in jeopardy (in the air) more than the inner circle elite QBs (seems to miss defenders sometimes), but his deep ball precision and mobility round out his game.

[Cheb]

I'm an unrepentant Lamar Jackson fan, so that's an easy vote for me.

What's more interesting to me is where those quarterbacks play. Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, Herbert, Jackson, and Tua all play in the AFC. Only Dak and Murray are in the NFC, and neither of them are top ten QBs, at least to my eyes.

Given that 75% of the young guns mentioned in this thread are in one conference, one could rightly posit that the NFC faces a serious deficit when it comes to quarterbacking below the age of 30.

[King Bootz]

I'm an unrepentant Lamar Jackson fan, so that's an easy vote for me.

What's more interesting to me is where those quarterbacks play. Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, Herbert, Jackson, and Tua all play in the AFC. Only Dak and Murray are in the NFC, and neither of them are top ten QBs, at least to my eyes.

Given that 75% of the young guns mentioned in this thread are in one conference, one could rightly posit that the NFC faces a serious deficit when it comes to quarterbacking below the age of 30.

NFC has a lot of reclamation projects. Detroit, New Orleans, Atlanta, Carolina, Washington, LAR all have former top 2 overall draft picks at QB who are on their 2nd or 3 team and likely their last chance. Stafford was a success but that's looking like it was a 1 shot deal for the deal. All of these teams are sporting a losing record right now.

[Xandtar]

Joe Burrow brought the National Title to LSU. He was repaid by being put behind one of the worst offensive lines in football, where he suffered greatly, both in production and in health. But in the long term, when he has Cincy in his rear-view mirror, he's going to have a great second half of his career.

[Selmon Rules]

Jackson, hands down, right now....

Will one of the others catch him?? Who knows but they haven't yet

[acmillis]

Winston

/thread




/blue

[The Outsider]

I'm an unrepentant Lamar Jackson fan, so that's an easy vote for me.

What's more interesting to me is where those quarterbacks play. Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, Herbert, Jackson, and Tua all play in the AFC. Only Dak and Murray are in the NFC, and neither of them are top ten QBs, at least to my eyes.

Given that 75% of the young guns mentioned in this thread are in one conference, one could rightly posit that the NFC faces a serious deficit when it comes to quarterbacking below the age of 30.

I'd say a few of those QBs move teams before 30. We could see Lamar move next season. Cincy, Miami, and the Chargers are all franchises with recent history of owner/front office issues causing star players to leave a la Carson Palmer to Oakland.

[The Outsider]

I think Burrow is a somewhat less turnover prone Favre with better mobility. His offensive line is putrid, so I'm hesitating to judge this season so far. Rookie year he was blowing the fuck up before his knee injury and last year he and that receiving corps, and the pass rush willed that team to the Super Bowl and almost beat KC.

Probably would have if Burrow hadn't have gotten hurt during the game.

That sounds right to me. Burrow is gonna put the ball in jeopardy (in the air) more than the inner circle elite QBs (seems to miss defenders sometimes), but his deep ball precision and mobility round out his game.

Yeah, he's got that "Fuck-it-chuck-it" mentality with the arm and brains to back it up. That and his swag is why he's my favorite out of the most recent crop of QBs. I love me a gunslinger with a personality.

[King Bootz]

Burrow definitely has the brains and football IQ. The arm though? While not bad, it's arguably the least talented of the bunch here. That's part of the reason the turnovers happen for him.

[MJW]

I think it's Herbert and I don't think it's particularly close right now. I think if he played for an NFL franchise anyone cared about, it wouldn't be a debate.

Jackson to me is almost exempt from this discussion, which I don't mean as an insult. Comparing Lamar Jackson to a traditional quarterback is like comparing Wes Welker and Andre Johnson, or Ronde Barber and Deion Sanders. The numbers say there's an argument there. But there's just not enough transferring of skill sets. If you have Lamar Jackson, you're building a role for Lamar Jackson unlike what any other QB is operating in. Even though it's the same position, it's too apples and oranges for me.

[Onthebrink]

Players on the Chargers can not receive acclaim from sports media and fans? What teams do people care about and what teams do they not care about? A lot of you thought that the Bills should leave Orchard Park. Nobody cared about the Bills besides those of us that live in WNY. The same can be said about the Bengals. Claiming that Herbert is being over looked because he is on the Chargers is not something that can be verified. When does a franchise start receiving the amount of recognition that a QB can no longer use that as an excuse? The Bills and Bengals have won playoff games.The Chargers have not. That is something that is verifiable. If the Chargers win playoff games and people still do not care then there could be an argument. Otherwise you could use that excuse indefinitely. I am not saying that Herbert isn't #3 but this seems like flawed logic. Nobody cares about the Chargers. Herbert hasn't made the playoffs with the Chargers. Therefore Herbert is a part of why nobody cares about the Chargers. That might not be true at all but it is a syllogism. There is logic to it.

[Max]

Recency bias.

Brady and Rodgers have been the clear cut QB1/QB2 (in whichever order) the last two years, and five games won't change that.

Also, Allen and Mahomes haven't been that great this season. Mahomes was terrible vs the Chargers (threw the ball to defenders 4 times) and Colts (that's 40% of the season) and Allen was terrible vs the Dolphins (had 5 turnover worthy plays per PFF, which is more than multiple QBs (including Brady) have on the season.

QB play is down this year and that does include Mahomes and Allen. I'd argue that there hasn't been a QB who has consistently played at an elite level this season.

The correct QB ranking:

Brady
Rodgers
Mahomes
Allen
Herbert
Jackson
Burrow

So to answer your question: Mahomes is the 3rd.

[Cheb]

For me at least, Justin Herbert isn't the number 3 guy because he has a losing record. Dude's 18-19.

The guy I and most people on this poll voted for, Lamar Jackson, by contrast is 41-17 including the playoffs. The number two guy, Joe Burrow, is 17-17-1 but took his team to a Superbowl which tilts the scales heavily in his favor.

It's hard for me to endorse a quarterback, no matter how talented, who doesn't consistently win games.

[King Bootz]

Recency bias.


Allen and Mahomes haven't been that great this season.

This sums up this post

[King Bootz]

For me, Justin Herbert has been crowned somewhat prematurely. He puts up a great statline from game to game. But when it's close and the QB has to put the team on his back? Herbert has not been that guy. We've seen Joe Burrow take the worst Oline in football & mediocre defense to the Superbowl. Lamar Jackson won an MVP award throwing to a 5'9 rookie as his #1 receiver and a bunch of JAGS. Josh Allen has elevated his game and is basically the best RB on his team. Even Kyler Murray has elevated his game to help his team win and make the playoffs.

Herbert has the tools. The team is stacked with talent. It's year 3, so he should take that next step. But what gets ignored with him are the backbreaking mistakes he makes late in games. He'll put up a statline of 68% completion, 3 TDs, 1 INT, 350 yards but that 1 INT usually comes late in the 4th of a 24-24 game.

[The Outsider]

Burrow definitely has the brains and football IQ. The arm though? While not bad, it's arguably the least talented of the bunch here. That's part of the reason the turnovers happen for him.

He's definitely not the strongest arm in the league but his arm is strong enough to make pretty much any throw he needs to make.

Strongest arm in the league I think is easily Allen. Some of the throws he makes are ridiculous. Mahomes is the best thrower from weird, non-traditional angles/positions. Jackson is like prime Vick but bigger and with brains, Vick may have had a bigger arm though. Kyler Murray is a hobbit.

[King Bootz]

Burrow definitely has the brains and football IQ. The arm though? While not bad, it's arguably the least talented of the bunch here. That's part of the reason the turnovers happen for him.

He's definitely not the strongest arm in the league but his arm is strong enough to make pretty much any throw he needs to make.

Strongest arm in the league I think is easily Allen. Some of the throws he makes are ridiculous. Mahomes is the best thrower from weird, non-traditional angles/positions. Jackson is like prime Vick but bigger and with brains, Vick may have had a bigger arm though. Kyler Murray is a hobbit.

Agreed with everything here except maybe Allen. I'm not sure if his elbow is hurting him but Matt Stafford for my money still has that rocket that made him the #1 overall pick. He had it last year against us for sure. Allen & Mahomes might be a tick or 2 below Stafford

[The Outsider]

Yeah good call on Stafford.

[Nobody]

Exempting Geno Smith and a few others (due to sample size/anomalous play) from the conversation, Football Outsiders has DYAR QBing for the above mentioned as thus far as:

1) Mahomes
2) Allen
3) Herbert
4) Brady
6) Jackson
10) Rodgers
14) Burrow

PFF has them as below in terms of Time to Throw, Big Time Throw, Turnover Worthy Plays, Adjusted Completion %, Grade:

Mahomes

TtT - 13
BTT - 4
TWP - 5 (tied)
AC% - 5
Gra -1

Allen

TtT - 9
BTT - 1
TWP - 17
AC% - 6
Gra - 2

Herbert

TtT - 20
BTT - 14
TWP - 3
AC% - 10
Gra - 8

Brady

TtT - 1 (by forever)
BTT - 6
TWP - 1
AC% - 13
Gra - 4

Jackson

TtT - 25
BTT - 3
TWP - 13
AC% - 12
Gra - 11

Rodgers

TtT - 3
BTT - 2
TWP - 5 (tied)
AC% - 11
Gra - 5

Burrow

TtT - 5
BTT - 17
TWP - 16
AC% - 17
Gra -14

[Digital_Damage]

Is Herbert...

The guy posted the third best QBR last season. Posting a better QBR this season than Burrow, Jackson and Murry (can't believe this guy is on the list, he is a fraud).

That includes playing damaged in the JAX game. Went toe to toe with KC. The guy is consistent.

Can't tell who Burrow is yet. Team around him is trying to get him killed.
Jacksons fundamentals are atrocious. His shelf life is going to be short after the wheels fall off.
Murry is a Joke... just full stop.
Only got to See Tua play once, seemed like it is feast or famine with him. But, Again have not watched him much.
Hurts had one good games against a cream puff schedule.
Lawrence put a couple of good games together and then shit the bed against Washington? DAFAQ?

[GoldenBudda]

How do you judge the best QB's?
Are we focused on the stat lines?

In my mind, the best QB is the QB I'd want when I'm down 6 with 1:00 on the clock with possession of the ball. Not much has changed.

Tom Brady
MeHomie
Aaron Rodgers

Josh Allen, and Justin Herbert will have their time but they don't make top 3 best QB's by my metrics.

[King Bootz]

How do you judge the best QB's?
Are we focused on the stat lines?

In my mind, the best QB is the QB I'd want when I'm down 6 with 1:00 on the clock with possession of the ball. Not much has changed.

Tom Brady
MeHomie
Aaron Rodgers

Josh Allen, and Justin Herbert will have their time but they don't make top 3 best QB's by my metrics.

Allen is getting better in that regard, but you have a point. Before they won that close game in Baltimore a couple weeks ago, I believe they were 0-8 in their last 1 score games during that streak.

Herbert is not a good 4th quarter QB.

[Patrick McIrish]

If there was a draft tomorrow I would take Herbert over the others.

[King Bootz]

If there was a draft tomorrow I would take Herbert over the others.

No you wouldn't and you couldn't even name a valid reason why.

[Nobody]

Josh Allen still just puts the ball in danger far too often. You can’t afford to do that in playoff games where the margin-of-error is razor thin.

A historical defense might bail you out if you make a few key mistakes in the AFC Championship. The problem is, while very good, this Bills defense is not historical. At some point, 3-4 loose plays a game gets you clipped in the playoffs.

[Patrick McIrish]

If there was a draft tomorrow I would take Herbert over the others.

No you wouldn't and you couldn't even name a valid reason why.

Don't tell me what I would do Junior.

Herbert by far has the highest ceiling and it's not particularly close.

Burrow would be 2nd, your guy wouldn't be seriously considered by anyone with a deep understanding of the game.

[King Bootz]

No you wouldn't and you couldn't even name a valid reason why.

Don't tell me what I would do Junior.

Herbert by far has the highest ceiling and it's not particularly close.

Burrow would be 2nd, your guy wouldn't be seriously considered by anyone with a deep understanding of the game.

Highest ceiling? You think Justin Herbert's ceiling is anywhere near that of Patrick Mahomes? I gotta hear this one.

[Patrick McIrish]

Don't tell me what I would do Junior.

Herbert by far has the highest ceiling and it's not particularly close.

Burrow would be 2nd, your guy wouldn't be seriously considered by anyone with a deep understanding of the game.

Highest ceiling? You think Justin Herbert's ceiling is anywhere near that of Patrick Mahomes? I gotta hear this one.

Perhaps reading the title again of the thread you started would help?

[King Bootz]

Highest ceiling? You think Justin Herbert's ceiling is anywhere near that of Patrick Mahomes? I gotta hear this one.

Perhaps reading the title again of the thread you started would help?

Oh okay. Thanks for clearing that up. Had me worried for a second there.

[*tgp*]

Brady catching all sorts of shit and some of it well deserved but it's not like Jackson is having a stellar season. Woof, that 4 quarter last week was brutal. But he's still 3rd and it's not even close IMHO.

Tua and Murray on this list is funny. Tua gets injured if a defender comes within 3 yards of the dude. But at least he seems like a good guy.

Murray? Petty little fuck who should have stuck with baseball as it's a much more individual sport and he's a selfish prick. Can't wait for the play where he's doing his video game bullshit, running 60 total yards behind the LOS, does one of those spin moves and gets murdered by a 320 lbs Dlineman.