The Outsider wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 11:15 am
If Brady sticks around past this season there's a solid chance he slides in there in a couple seasons.
What is the likeliness of this? Less than 5%? It's not 0, but close.
I'm honestly hesitant to put a number on it. He's Tom Brady. He doesn't have to do anything at this point. I view it as a complete wildcard because if Brady wakes up one day next spring or summer and decides he isn't done then he isn't done. And he's clearly not afraid to backtrack a retirement decision.
So the honest answer is, I have no idea how likely it is right now. I'd say a lot of that depends on this upcoming season.
What is the likeliness of this? Less than 5%? It's not 0, but close.
I'm honestly hesitant to put a number on it. He's Tom Brady. He doesn't have to do anything at this point. I view it as a complete wildcard because if Brady wakes up one day next spring or summer and decides he isn't done then he isn't done. And he's clearly not afraid to backtrack a retirement decision.
So the honest answer is, I have no idea how likely it is right now. I'd say a lot of that depends on this upcoming season.
We spoke about this in another thread, but he almost intentionally made it to where he won't come back here next year. He made us put in the contract that we cannot tag him and pushed more than 30 million in void years to next year and didn't do a 2 year deal for us to stretch that out more, it was a 1 year deal.
The media and alleged insiders in his camp claims that's to play for another team, but it could be protection for him that he won't come back or could be for another team or whatever, but the chances are slim he plays next year and even less likely he would play here next year.
The Outsider wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 11:15 am
If Brady sticks around past this season there's a solid chance he slides in there in a couple seasons.
What is the likeliness of this? Less than 5%? It's not 0, but close.
I'd say 0 is an accurate figure. Otherwise why not sign a multi year deal that would alleviate some of the dead cap burden and give him an option to return as well. The added parameters that he can't be franchise or transition tagged as well leads everyone to the realization that this is it.
Edit: Didn't see your new post but yea you covered it. It's not an easy thing to admit but you don't even have to read between the lines. He is done here after this season.
I get it, but setting stuff up - a year in advance - to where it is easy for him to not come back does not equate to him not coming back. We're all just guessing, without the benefit of seeing what happens this year. Tom included.
Kress wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 4:55 pm
I get it, but setting stuff up - a year in advance - to where it is easy for him to not come back does not equate to him not coming back. We're all just guessing, without the benefit of seeing what happens this year. Tom included.
Unlike his previous contracts with the Bucs, he seems to have made it apparent he is not coming back.
Kress wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 4:55 pm
I get it, but setting stuff up - a year in advance - to where it is easy for him to not come back does not equate to him not coming back. We're all just guessing, without the benefit of seeing what happens this year. Tom included.
Unlike his previous contracts with the Bucs, he seems to have made it apparent he is not coming back.
Or set up the option to not come back, knowing damn well he would also have the option to come back.
I'm honestly hesitant to put a number on it. He's Tom Brady. He doesn't have to do anything at this point. I view it as a complete wildcard because if Brady wakes up one day next spring or summer and decides he isn't done then he isn't done. And he's clearly not afraid to backtrack a retirement decision.
So the honest answer is, I have no idea how likely it is right now. I'd say a lot of that depends on this upcoming season.
We spoke about this in another thread, but he almost intentionally made it to where he won't come back here next year. He made us put in the contract that we cannot tag him and pushed more than 30 million in void years to next year and didn't do a 2 year deal for us to stretch that out more, it was a 1 year deal.
The media and alleged insiders in his camp claims that's to play for another team, but it could be protection for him that he won't come back or could be for another team or whatever, but the chances are slim he plays next year and even less likely he would play here next year.
Brady is an ultra-wealthy icon who has proven to be fickle in his decision making in the past with regards to retirement. Considering that and the fact that I have zero insight in to him at all beyond what the media says (read: bullshit) I don't pretend to have a clue as to what he may do. Contracts are mutable things, as is the salary cap.
Kress wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 4:55 pm
I get it, but setting stuff up - a year in advance - to where it is easy for him to not come back does not equate to him not coming back. We're all just guessing, without the benefit of seeing what happens this year. Tom included.
Smart money literally would've been to include a player's option for 2023. Bill did it for him a few seasons back IIRC. It would've also help offset the $30mil dead cap hit we're about to incur.
With all of the information we know, if you had to put a number on it, it would have to be something like 99.8% to 0.02% not coming back to coming back, at best. The man literally announced his retirement and then changed his mind. He signed a contract that guarantees his freedom next March and prevents us from having leverage in keeping him here. Oh and he'll be 45 years old going on 46.
Maybe it's not zero but no one can make a strong case that he'll return next year.
Crazy that Bucs could have the #1 and #2 guys after this season. Even if this is Gronk's last season here.
Mike Evans is starting to solidify that HoF resume. All WRs or TE's that have over 85TDs in their career are in the HoF, or will be within a few years of becoming eligible. MIke is at 75TD at 28yrs old.
14k-15k should be around the HoF benchmark for receiving yards, Mike is at 9301, which the most for any player his age or younger and the most for any player drafted in 2014 or after.
If Mike Evans gets 1200yds this season he will match DeAndre Hopkins' current yardage pace.
All while being a top 10 pick and clear WR1 since day 1.
Backside wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 6:52 pm
Julio Jones just never was able to reliably find the end zone, huh? Wonder if that will factor in, Evans is such a beast in the red zone.
I could never understand that. Julio was so good, yet he couldn’t get in the end zone consistently. To the point that one season the Falcons started taking him off the field in the red zone.
Backside wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 6:52 pm
Julio Jones just never was able to reliably find the end zone, huh? Wonder if that will factor in, Evans is such a beast in the red zone.
I could never understand that. Julio was so good, yet he couldn’t get in the end zone consistently. To the point that one season the Falcons started taking him off the field in the red zone.
Made me think of Key when he had over 100 catches and ONE touchdown.
I could never understand that. Julio was so good, yet he couldn’t get in the end zone consistently. To the point that one season the Falcons started taking him off the field in the red zone.
Made me think of Key when he had over 100 catches and ONE touchdown.
Mike is right there. Let's not act like he had even middling quarterback play for the first 6 years of his career. He spent his prime using his obscene catch radius to compile the first 3/4 of the record start to his career.
Ken wrote: ↑Fri May 27, 2022 8:26 am
Mike is right there. Let's not act like he had even middling quarterback play for the first 6 years of his career. He spent his prime using his obscene catch radius to compile the first 3/4 of the record start to his career.
Ironically though, Evans numbers were all better with "middling QB play" other than TD receptions. Catches, catches per game, targets, targets per game, yards, yards per catch, yards per game all down over the last 2 seasons from his career averages.
Ken wrote: ↑Fri May 27, 2022 8:26 am
Mike is right there. Let's not act like he had even middling quarterback play for the first 6 years of his career. He spent his prime using his obscene catch radius to compile the first 3/4 of the record start to his career.
Ironically though, Evans numbers were all better with "middling QB play" other than TD receptions. Catches, catches per game, targets, targets per game, yards, yards per catch, yards per game all down over the last 2 seasons from his career averages.
Too lazy, but would love to see pass/run play selection from our losing seasons vs. winning seasons (with Brady). Logic says if we're winning, we're running, but with BA at the helm, not sure that would ring true, but could help explain ME13's lessened role the last two years as it pertains to the stats Bootz eluded to.
Ironically though, Evans numbers were all better with "middling QB play" other than TD receptions. Catches, catches per game, targets, targets per game, yards, yards per catch, yards per game all down over the last 2 seasons from his career averages.
Too lazy, but would love to see pass/run play selection from our losing seasons vs. winning seasons (with Brady). Logic says if we're winning, we're running, but with BA at the helm, not sure that would ring true, but could help explain ME13's lessened role the last two years as it pertains to the stats Bootz eluded to.
That's looking way too deep into it. It really is as simple as the fact that he's no longer the only legitimate weapon on offense. I mean, fuck, who was our #2 before Godwin got here? V-Jax was more or less done after a season or two here. And I'm legitimately struggling to think of who lined up on the other side of the field from Evans between V-Jax and Godwin. TE was a similar wasteland with Brate being our only TE worth mentioning for years.
The Outsider wrote: ↑Fri May 27, 2022 11:54 am
TE was a similar wasteland with Brate being our only TE worth mentioning for years.
Just sticking up for Cam Brate The Tradeable who very quietly will pass Jimmy Giles for 2nd most Receiving Touchdowns in Franchise History this season.
He even grew an epic porn-stache for the occasion.
Too lazy, but would love to see pass/run play selection from our losing seasons vs. winning seasons (with Brady). Logic says if we're winning, we're running, but with BA at the helm, not sure that would ring true, but could help explain ME13's lessened role the last two years as it pertains to the stats Bootz eluded to.
That's looking way too deep into it. It really is as simple as the fact that he's no longer the only legitimate weapon on offense. I mean, fuck, who was our #2 before Godwin got here? V-Jax was more or less done after a season or two here. And I'm legitimately struggling to think of who lined up on the other side of the field from Evans between V-Jax and Godwin. TE was a similar wasteland with Brate being our only TE worth mentioning for years.
DeSean Jackson was #2 for those seasons between V-Jax & Godwin. Godwin was #3 behind Evans and D-Jax.
That's looking way too deep into it. It really is as simple as the fact that he's no longer the only legitimate weapon on offense. I mean, fuck, who was our #2 before Godwin got here? V-Jax was more or less done after a season or two here. And I'm legitimately struggling to think of who lined up on the other side of the field from Evans between V-Jax and Godwin. TE was a similar wasteland with Brate being our only TE worth mentioning for years.
DeSean Jackson was #2 for those seasons between V-Jax & Godwin. Godwin was #3 behind Evans and D-Jax.
The Outsider wrote: ↑Fri May 27, 2022 11:54 am
TE was a similar wasteland with Brate being our only TE worth mentioning for years.
Just sticking up for Cam Brate The Tradeable who very quietly will pass Jimmy Giles for 2nd most Receiving Touchdowns in Franchise History this season.
He even grew an epic porn-stache for the occasion.
Porn stache? Nah, Burt Reynold's was a porn stache. This is more like Tea Time at the London Men's Club.
Just sticking up for Cam Brate The Tradeable who very quietly will pass Jimmy Giles for 2nd most Receiving Touchdowns in Franchise History this season.
He even grew an epic porn-stache for the occasion.
Porn stache? Nah, Burt Reynold's was a porn stache. This is more like Tea Time at the London Men's Club.
That's looking way too deep into it. It really is as simple as the fact that he's no longer the only legitimate weapon on offense. I mean, fuck, who was our #2 before Godwin got here? V-Jax was more or less done after a season or two here. And I'm legitimately struggling to think of who lined up on the other side of the field from Evans between V-Jax and Godwin. TE was a similar wasteland with Brate being our only TE worth mentioning for years.
DeSean Jackson was #2 for those seasons between V-Jax & Godwin. Godwin was #3 behind Evans and D-Jax.
Evans has played in 6 more games as well (a plus for availability, but a negative when talking pure stats), but this is a case of stats don't tell the whole story. Adams has been on a different plane that Evans has ever been these past 2 years as far as getting open, catches, consistently beating his man, etc. Maybe that changes with Adams catching from Carr instead of Rodgers?
Edit: It is crazy that they have been so similar yet one, Adams, is widely considered to be on his way to the HoF and the best at his position and the other (Evans) is not outside of Tampa. While Evans doesn't get doubled teamed much anymore and Adams leads the lead in double teams, Evans was at the top in 2015 and 2016...it's just forgotten because we weren't good. I think it goes to Adams peaking on a great team and Evans peaked on a bad one? Hopefully Evans can be dominant with the spotlight before we suck again.
uscbucsfan wrote: ↑Mon Aug 08, 2022 7:46 pm
Evans has played in 6 more games as well (a plus for availability, but a negative when talking pure stats), but this is a case of stats don't tell the whole story. Adams has been on a different plane that Evans has ever been these past 2 years as far as getting open, catches, consistently beating his man, etc. Maybe that changes with Adams catching from Carr instead of Rodgers?
Edit: It is crazy that they have been so similar yet one, Adams, is widely considered to be on his way to the HoF and the best at his position and the other (Evans) is not outside of Tampa. While Evans doesn't get doubled teamed much anymore and Adams leads the lead in double teams, Evans was at the top in 2015 and 2016...it's just forgotten because we weren't good. I think it goes to Adams peaking on a great team and Evans peaked on a bad one? Hopefully Evans can be dominant with the spotlight before we suck again.
Evans has caught 31 touchdowns from the GOAT in the last two years between regular season and playoffs, and is the current active leader for TD catches in the NFL. I think he's peaking at an opportune time.
