Mike Evans Career Tracker

[Snake]

The sequel to this thread: https://buczone.com/forum/viewtopic.php ... 2&p=448891

The Mike Evans "profile" is solidified at this point. Barring something unforeseen.

With Jameis, he caught around 55% of his targets. With Brady, he catches around ~63%.
With Jameis, he catches 8 TDs a season. With Brady, it's been 13 and 14.
With Jameis, he averaged 15-16 yards per reception. With Brady, it's been 14.2.

One doesn't have to think very hard in determining why these numbers are the way they are. Brady is gonna spread the ball around. He's gonna be surgical. Especially in the red zone. He has a lot of nice targets wherever he is on the field. The Bucs aren't chasing other teams very often.

Assuming Mike stays healthy (a proposition that becomes more dubious with every season), pencil him in for double digit TDs and at least a 1000 yards. He's snuck over the finish line to keep the 1K streak going and I assume the team will continue to make that happen.



As of today, Mike Evans is tied for 36th in career receiving TDs. 8 TDs behind Calvin Johnson and Antonio Brown (24th spot). 17 TDs behind Gronk (12th spot). The top 10 spots are a real whose who of dominant receiving threats. 10-20 is more guys who were really good, and also played a long time and stayed healthy. And a couple handfuls of guys like Boldin and Galloway. Great players in their own right, but not HOFers. By my estimation.

Things get iffy for MEIII after Brady, so let's project where he might stand after another typical season with the GOAT.

75 TDs + 13 = 83 = now 14th all-time.
9300 yards + 1000 = 10,300 = now 44th all-time.

That would be the conclusion of his age 29 season. 14th and 44th all-time. and now extending his 1000k season record to 9 seasons.

Here's where it gets interesting. Mike Evans has never lead the league in receptions, TDs, or yards. He cannot stake a claim on dominance like Antonio Brown during his prime, or Julio Jones. Any case he builds is built on consistency and his association with winning. Mike is a four-time pro bowler. Not 13x like Rice. Not 10x like Harrison. Not even 6x like Megatron. And the day Tom Brady walks out the door, his chances of accumulating those sorts of accolades and winning drop substantially, assuming he stays in Tampa.

There is still a path.

Isaac Bruce - 4x pro bowler, 1x SB champ, 91 career TDs, 15,200 yards. People will talk about statistical inflation, but top WRs received a hell of a lot of targets back then too. Bruce had 199 in 1995. Crazy.

I think it will take some combination of the following:
10 consecutive 1000 yard seasons. This coming season and the following. This will be the second or third thing they read off when introducing him to the HOF.
15,000 career yards. Meaning 2700 more yards after the 10 season streak.
1 more pro bowl appearance, for good measure.
100 career TDs.

Will he stay healthy? who is the QB after Tom? Will he stay in Tampa and finish it out? Time will tell.

[Primeminister]

Last year was the first time I’ve heard several national talking heads refer to Evans as “likely future HOF”. That is a positive change in how he is viewed.

[The Outsider]

And the day Tom Brady walks out the door, his chances of accumulating those sorts of accolades and winning drop substantially, assuming he stays in Tampa.

Literally his entire career before 2020 says differently, but ok. Dude was really, really good with a group of QBs including, but not limited to, Crablegs McRapeston, Mike Glennon, your grandmother cosplaying as Josh McCown, and Fitzmagic/tragic.

Mike Evans will be a HOF WR by the time it's all said and done and you can @ me on that motherfucking shit fite me irl bitch.

[uscbucsfan]

And the day Tom Brady walks out the door, his chances of accumulating those sorts of accolades and winning drop substantially, assuming he stays in Tampa.

Literally his entire career before 2020 says differently, but ok. Dude was really, really good with a group of QBs including, but not limited to, Crablegs McRapeston, Mike Glennon, your grandmother cosplaying as Josh McCown, and Fitzmagic/tragic.

Mike Evans will be a HOF WR by the time it's all said and done and you can @ me on that motherfucking shit fite me irl bitch.

As Snake said, it'll be the accumulation of stats route ala Frank Gore. He's got as many All-Pro seasons as Godwin (1 2nd team each) and has never really been viewed as a top 5 receiver outside of Tampa. Many writers don't include him in top 10 lists on a regular basis. Unfortunately, their opinion does matter as they vote on the HOF.

[acmillis]

Could he walk out the door (to retire) with Brady?

[Kress]

Could he walk out the door (to retire) with Brady?

Reference the In The Current video clip where he talks about the records and milestones he looks forward to hitting.

[The Outsider]

Literally his entire career before 2020 says differently, but ok. Dude was really, really good with a group of QBs including, but not limited to, Crablegs McRapeston, Mike Glennon, your grandmother cosplaying as Josh McCown, and Fitzmagic/tragic.

Mike Evans will be a HOF WR by the time it's all said and done and you can @ me on that motherfucking shit fite me irl bitch.

As Snake said, it'll be the accumulation of stats route ala Frank Gore. He's got as many All-Pro seasons as Godwin (1 2nd team each) and has never really been viewed as a top 5 receiver outside of Tampa. Many writers don't include him in top 10 lists on a regular basis. Unfortunately, their opinion does matter as they vote on the HOF.

All-Pro awards are almost as subjective and overrated as Pro Bowl awards as they give more weight to a player on a successful team over a player on an unsuccessful team that has comparable if not better stats. Case in point Lavonte David vs Bobby Wagner. David trails Wagner in the tackles category, which makes sense considering David didn't transition to Mike until relatively deep in to his career while Wagner was always a Mike and that position traditionally generates more tackles than OLBs.\

In 1 more game started Wagner has 1 less INT, 1 less TD, 3.5 less sacks, 20, yes 20, less forced fumbles, 8 less fumble recoveries, 50 less solo tackles, but 211 more assisted tackles.

Assisted tackles, and total tackles because of this, are literally the only stats Wagner edges out David on and yet Wagner has 6 AP 1 awards and 2 AP 2 awards.

Fucking bullshit if you ask me.

I get it, the writers (old men sitting in a room sniffing their own farts like a wine tasting) decide these things. But maybe they fucking shouldn't.

[Snake]

They definitely shouldn’t.

[Deja Entendu]

Literally his entire career before 2020 says differently, but ok. Dude was really, really good with a group of QBs including, but not limited to, Crablegs McRapeston, Mike Glennon, your grandmother cosplaying as Josh McCown, and Fitzmagic/tragic.

Mike Evans will be a HOF WR by the time it's all said and done and you can @ me on that motherfucking shit fite me irl bitch.

As Snake said, it'll be the accumulation of stats route ala Frank Gore. He's got as many All-Pro seasons as Godwin (1 2nd team each) and has never really been viewed as a top 5 receiver outside of Tampa. Many writers don't include him in top 10 lists on a regular basis. Unfortunately, their opinion does matter as they vote on the HOF.

It’ll be different than Gore. Sure he has the consistency that can lump him as an accumulator (not much of a knock), but Evans also has a SB (and counting), he has the streak, and is arguably the 2nd best player on his side of the ball behind the literal greatest offensive player of all time.

And it’s not like Brady made him, Mike was the best player on the offense before Brady came along. We all know what he did before, and honestly I’ve never spoken football with someone that didn’t consider him one of the best in the league… and I don’t live anywhere near Tampa.

He’s often recognized as one of the best players in the league nationally, too, so I’m not sure where that’s coming from. Here are the NFL’s Top 100 players results since he’s entered the league:

2021: #48 overall #7 WR
2020: #30 overall # 5 WR
2019: #53 overall #11 WR
2018: Not ranked (14 WR incl.)
2017: #29 overall #5 WR
2016: Not ranked (17 WR incl.)
2015: #75 overall #15 WR
2014: Not ranked (16 WR (incl.)

Mike had a shot before Brady. After Brady, the 1k record, and the first SB he’s got a very strong case. He’s also universally respected as a great guy off the field which will also help him.

One more ring and another 1k season or two to pad the record and he’s a lock, but I like his chances regardless. If a book had odds on it, I’d be all over it.

[uscbucsfan]

As Snake said, it'll be the accumulation of stats route ala Frank Gore. He's got as many All-Pro seasons as Godwin (1 2nd team each) and has never really been viewed as a top 5 receiver outside of Tampa. Many writers don't include him in top 10 lists on a regular basis. Unfortunately, their opinion does matter as they vote on the HOF.

All-Pro awards are almost as subjective and overrated as Pro Bowl awards as they give more weight to a player on a successful team over a player on an unsuccessful team that has comparable if not better stats. Case in point Lavonte David vs Bobby Wagner. David trails Wagner in the tackles category, which makes sense considering David didn't transition to Mike until relatively deep in to his career while Wagner was always a Mike and that position traditionally generates more tackles than OLBs.\

In 1 more game started Wagner has 1 less INT, 1 less TD, 3.5 less sacks, 20, yes 20, less forced fumbles, 8 less fumble recoveries, 50 less solo tackles, but 211 more assisted tackles.

Assisted tackles, and total tackles because of this, are literally the only stats Wagner edges out David on and yet Wagner has 6 AP 1 awards and 2 AP 2 awards.

Fucking bullshit if you ask me.

I get it, the writers (old men sitting in a room sniffing their own farts like a wine tasting) decide these things. But maybe they fucking shouldn't.

While I don't disagree with All-Pro being flawed, it's much much better than Pro Bowl and stats only tell a portion of the story. Film, impact on the game, and popularity have always played a bigger role in that.

[uscbucsfan]

2021: #48 overall #7 WR
2020: #30 overall # 5 WR
2019: #53 overall #11 WR
2018: Not ranked (14 WR incl.)
2017: #29 overall #5 WR
2016: Not ranked (17 WR incl.)
2015: #75 overall #15 WR
2014: Not ranked (16 WR (incl.)

First, this is the NFL players rank, which many admittedly vote for players they are friends with, but this aligns almost exactly what I posted...Twice was 5th in the NFL and writers typically rate him lower. We used to post a bunch of different writers rankings and often he wasn't in the top 10. It's bullshit, but it's something to consider. It's very similar to how the league viewed Ronde Barber.

Basically you are saying that him and around 8-10 other WRs should get in the HOF from his generation. I think that's too many, but with new records it may be the case.

As Snake said, he's never been the best in the league or even considered in that elite grouping. He's underrated.

[Deja Entendu]

2021: #48 overall #7 WR
2020: #30 overall # 5 WR
2019: #53 overall #11 WR
2018: Not ranked (14 WR incl.)
2017: #29 overall #5 WR
2016: Not ranked (17 WR incl.)
2015: #75 overall #15 WR
2014: Not ranked (16 WR (incl.)

This is almost exactly what I posted...Twice was 5th in the NFL and writers typically rate him lower. We used to post a bunch of different writers rankings and often he wasn't in the top 10. It's bullshit, but it's something to consider. It's very similar to how the league viewed Ronde Barber.

That’s where the significance of the consistency and the record come in.

Ronde suffers due to scheme and being a benefactor of an all-time great defense. His record is cool, but it’s seen as niche/novel due to the scheme he ran. CBs were historically compared/judged how well they locked down WRs and that wasn’t Ronde’s game.

1k for a receiver is a well established benchmark. Total yards and TDs too.

[Deja Entendu]

2021: #48 overall #7 WR
2020: #30 overall # 5 WR
2019: #53 overall #11 WR
2018: Not ranked (14 WR incl.)
2017: #29 overall #5 WR
2016: Not ranked (17 WR incl.)
2015: #75 overall #15 WR
2014: Not ranked (16 WR (incl.)

First, this is the NFL players rank, which many admittedly vote for players they are friends with, but this aligns almost exactly what I posted...Twice was 5th in the NFL and writers typically rate him lower. We used to post a bunch of different writers rankings and often he wasn't in the top 10. It's bullshit, but it's something to consider. It's very similar to how the league viewed Ronde Barber.

Basically you are saying that him and around 8-10 other WRs should get in the HOF from his generation. I think that's too many, but with new records it may be the case.

As Snake said, he's never been the best in the league or even considered in that elite grouping. He's underrated.

This is where context is more important than snapshots of rankings.

I’m not going to post the entire lists, but if you look at them it is not always the same people. There were a few a few flashes in the pan, along with people who were dominant for a period but lacked the consistency that Evans had.

He also spanned a few generations of WRs already. For example, CJ is on the earlier lists, so is Fitz. They’re locks.

Obv there’s a bias to any rankings, including player ones, but it does show he’s consistently viewed as one of the best in the game by his peers.

There are only a small # of receivers that have consistently been up there along with Mike - AB, Hopkins, Adams, and Julio being the main ones. All of them have a case, none have the record, and the only other one with a ring is also in the HOF of batshit crazy.

[uscbucsfan]

This is almost exactly what I posted...Twice was 5th in the NFL and writers typically rate him lower. We used to post a bunch of different writers rankings and often he wasn't in the top 10. It's bullshit, but it's something to consider. It's very similar to how the league viewed Ronde Barber.

That’s where the significance of the consistency and the record come in.

Ronde suffers due to scheme and being a benefactor of an all-time great defense. His record is cool, but it’s seen as niche/novel due to the scheme he ran. CBs were historically compared/judged how well they locked down WRs and that wasn’t Ronde’s game.

1k for a receiver is a well established benchmark. Total yards and TDs too.

Is 1,000 yards in a 17 game season impressive?

I don't think it is, but compiling them is...That's where the Frank Gore comparison comes in. Gore was always seen as a really good back, never considered elite by most. He had a few years where he was awesome, but he was consistent and he'll be in the HOF.

[Deja Entendu]

@uscbucsfan I do get where you’re coming from. There’s definitely a devil’s advocate case to be had. But when it’s all said and done, I think it’s more likely than not he’s getting a gold jacket.

Plus, let’s not forget he’ll also have Brady campaigning for him when the time comes.

[uscbucsfan]

@uscbucsfan I do get where you’re coming from. There’s definitely a devil’s advocate case to be had. But when it’s all said and done, I think it’s more likely than not he’s getting a gold jacket.

Plus, let’s not forget he’ll also have Brady campaigning for him when the time comes.

I think so too, but for me he's in that grouping with Lynch, Holt, Bruce, Gore etc. as really really good, but not historically great players. All will likely get in, but none are first ballot guys and all have an argument against.

[Deja Entendu]

That’s where the significance of the consistency and the record come in.

Ronde suffers due to scheme and being a benefactor of an all-time great defense. His record is cool, but it’s seen as niche/novel due to the scheme he ran. CBs were historically compared/judged how well they locked down WRs and that wasn’t Ronde’s game.

1k for a receiver is a well established benchmark. Total yards and TDs too.

Is 1,000 yards in a 17 game season impressive?

I don't think it is, but compiling them is...That's where the Frank Gore comparison comes in. Gore was always seen as a really good back, never considered elite by most. He had a few years where he was awesome, but he was consistent and he'll be in the HOF.

He broke the 1k record before there was a 17 game season. Yes, it’s pretty damn impressive.

Gore also had longevity which is where he accumulated his stats. Mike got his stats to start his career. What records did Gore break along the way? Did he win a ring?

I love Gore and have since his days at the U. Happy he will get in especially after all he’s overcome, but I don’t see his career as comparable.

[Deja Entendu]

@uscbucsfan I do get where you’re coming from. There’s definitely a devil’s advocate case to be had. But when it’s all said and done, I think it’s more likely than not he’s getting a gold jacket.

Plus, let’s not forget he’ll also have Brady campaigning for him when the time comes.

I think so too, but for me he's in that grouping with Lynch, Holt, Bruce, Gore etc. as really really good, but not historically great players. All will likely get in, but none are first ballot guys and all have an argument against.

I think that’s fair enough, but I honestly think he has a better case n paper than all of those guys.

[uscbucsfan]

Is 1,000 yards in a 17 game season impressive?

I don't think it is, but compiling them is...That's where the Frank Gore comparison comes in. Gore was always seen as a really good back, never considered elite by most. He had a few years where he was awesome, but he was consistent and he'll be in the HOF.

He broke the 1k record before there was a 17 game season. Yes, it’s pretty damn impressive.

Gore also had longevity which is where he accumulated his stats. Mike got his stats to start his career. What records did Gore break along the way? Did he win a ring?

I love Gore and have since his days at the U. Happy he will get in especially after all he’s overcome, but I don’t see his career as comparable.

Last season he was like 23 or 24th in yards. That doesn't hold a lot of weight...it's the record, but the individual 1,000 yards isn't impressive and it really wasn't prior to the 17 game season, either. He was like 17th or later the year before. When there's 20 WRs doing it, it's not really special.

[Snake]

We love that round 1000 yard number. It’s kind of crazy that three of those 1000 yards seasons totaled 3042 yards combined. He’s eeked out four of them really. I’m curious how he would be perceived if three of those seasons ended up with sub 1000 yards. Albeit close to it.

[Deja Entendu]

He broke the 1k record before there was a 17 game season. Yes, it’s pretty damn impressive.

Gore also had longevity which is where he accumulated his stats. Mike got his stats to start his career. What records did Gore break along the way? Did he win a ring?

I love Gore and have since his days at the U. Happy he will get in especially after all he’s overcome, but I don’t see his career as comparable.

Last season he was like 23 or 24th in yards. That doesn't hold a lot of weight...it's the record, but the individual 1,000 yards isn't impressive and it really wasn't prior to the 17 game season, either. He was like 17th or later the year before. When there's 20 WRs doing it, it's not really special.

He set the record in the final week of the 2020 season which was a 16 game season.

And not special?? We aren’t talking about a single 1000 yard season. We are talking about 8 of them. In a row.

Even if you want to discredit his 8th year because it was in 17 games, he already broke the record. Rice, Moss, Owens, Megatron, Andre Johnson, Fitz, AJ Green, literally not one player besides Evan has started their career with 7 consecutive seasons with 1000 yards.

Hell, after his third or fourth year he was in exclusive company with consecutive 1000 yard seasons to start a career.

It’s fucking impressive.

[uscbucsfan]

Last season he was like 23 or 24th in yards. That doesn't hold a lot of weight...it's the record, but the individual 1,000 yards isn't impressive and it really wasn't prior to the 17 game season, either. He was like 17th or later the year before. When there's 20 WRs doing it, it's not really special.

He set the record in the final week of the 2020 season which was a 16 game season.

And not special?? We aren’t talking about a single 1000 yard season. We are talking about 8 of them. In a row.

Even if you want to discredit his 8th year because it was in 17 games, he already broke the record. Rice, Moss, Owens, Megatron, Andre Johnson, Fitz, AJ Green, literally not one player besides Evan has started their career with 7 consecutive seasons with 1000 yards.

Hell, after his third or fourth year he was in exclusive company with consecutive 1000 yard seasons to start a career.

It’s fucking impressive.

You misread my post. I said 8 of them is impressive, singularly they are not. 1,000 yards is not a big deal anymore, like 20 players do it per season.

His impressive stat is that he has done them every season, even if individually some of them aren't great.

[Deja Entendu]

We love that round 1000 yard number. It’s kind of crazy that three of those 1000 yards seasons totaled 3042 yards combined. He’s eeked out four of them really. I’m curious how he would be perceived if three of those seasons ended up with sub 1000 yards. Albeit close to it.

It would change the convo bc he wouldn’t have that record… unless he was still the only person to have 7+ consecutive 984 yard+ seasons to start a season haha

[Deja Entendu]

He set the record in the final week of the 2020 season which was a 16 game season.

And not special?? We aren’t talking about a single 1000 yard season. We are talking about 8 of them. In a row.

Even if you want to discredit his 8th year because it was in 17 games, he already broke the record. Rice, Moss, Owens, Megatron, Andre Johnson, Fitz, AJ Green, literally not one player besides Evan has started their career with 7 consecutive seasons with 1000 yards.

Hell, after his third or fourth year he was in exclusive company with consecutive 1000 yard seasons to start a career.

It’s fucking impressive.

You misread my post. I said 8 of them is impressive, singularly they are not. 1,000 yards is not a big deal anymore, like 20 players do it per season.

His impressive streak is that he has done them every season, even if individually some of them aren't great.

Ah my bad. I don’t disagree but that’s the bar. Obviously his 1200/1300+ yard seasons were more impressive.

Honestly I think the most impressive thing is that he’s done it with respectable to great receivers across from him, and kept it going even though Brady spreads the ball so much (which is also why he only eeked a couple out).

[mdb1958]

Let him get to first Buc WR to put in a decade.

[The Outsider]

Mike's sideline, one-handed, finger-tip grab while getting blasted in the face (settle down) by two Falcons should get him in to the Hall on its own.

[Capsaicin]

And the day Tom Brady walks out the door, his chances of accumulating those sorts of accolades and winning drop substantially, assuming he stays in Tampa.

Literally his entire career before 2020 says differently, but ok. Dude was really, really good with a group of QBs including, but not limited to, Crablegs McRapeston, Mike Glennon, your grandmother cosplaying as Josh McCown, and Fitzmagic/tragic.

Mike Evans will be a HOF WR by the time it's all said and done and you can @ me on that motherfucking shit fite me irl bitch.

FFS he gifted Johnny Manziel a Heisman Trophy and a 1st rd pick…and he went over 1000 yards both years in collegeZ

[MJW]

Mike probably isn't HOF worthy YET, but he's 28. He's 6,000 yards for his career away from passing every receiver in history in yardage except Rice and Fitzgerald. The only active guy ahead of him on the list who is still going to add significant yardage to his totals is D-Hop. And I think his style of play will age very well.

He also seems to be very respected in the football community, which is a big deal when dealing with the voters (ask John Lynch.)

[Cheb]

If Mike Evans retired today, I don't think he makes the Hall of Fame. Ring of Honor as best offensive Buc in team history (imo), absolutely. But a Hall of Famer he is not.

Not yet, anyway.

I think we can all agree that Mike can make the Hall if he stays healthy, shows consistency, and keeps being himself. So there must be a conceivable threshold that once he crosses it, he should be if not a lock for Canton then a serious contender.

Is the consecutive thousand yard seasons that threshold? Outside of this fanbase, I have never heard of anyone else being aware of this streak, much less care about it. And while consistency is itself a quality to be admired on a Hall of Fame resume, it's probably not going to be the thing that puts you over the top.

Let's focus on the low hanging fruit; TDs, yards, and receptions.

The first is the easiest. Here's a little nugget for ya; every pass catcher in NFL history who has 90 or more receiving touchdowns and is eligible for the Hall of Fame is in it. The three guys over that 90+ TD club who aren't in yet are Larry Fitzgerald, Antonio Gates, and Rob Gronkowski, all of whom are bound for Canton when they are eligible. Our boy Mike Evans has 75 receiving touchdowns currently, and will be playing his age 29 season this fall. If he gets 16 more touchdowns before he hangs them up, he crosses that finish line of 90+ tuddies. Hell, he might get that this year if he's lucky, Evans had 13 and 14 his last two years with Brady. Scheme up a few more goalline looks and if he stays healthy, who knows?

The next category is yards and it's a bit trickier. In looking at the list of top receiving yardage players, the magic number seems to be at or over 14,000 yards to increase your odds of a Hall of Fame spot, but it's not as money as touchdowns seem to be. Steve Smith Sr, Reggie Wayne, and Andre Johnson are all over 14k and still not in. Mike Evans is sitting at 9301 yards, so he has a 4699 yard mountain to climb. If Evans maintains his average season of 1162 yards per anum, he will join the 14k club in the 2026 season. Not impossible, to be sure, but the older Mike gets the more difficult it will become to maintain that average yardage, much less surpass it, and with a change in quarterback coming eventually to Tampa, that could absolutely destroy his odds of getting 14,000 career receiving yards.

Now we come to career receptions. Mike Evans has 606 right now. The "hard cutoff" for receptions, where everyone above that line is in the Hall or headed there, is 1076. If we drop that number down to 1000, we see some very good pass catchers who caught alot of balls but still ain't got a bust; Anquan Bolden, Reggie Wayne, Andre Johnson, Steve Smith Sr, and Hines Ward. Mike Evans would need to catch his average 75 balls a year for the next 6.75 seasons to hit 1000 catches. He's gonna be 29 on opening day, so he'd have to catch 75 balls a year until he's 35. Has it been done by the great of years past, yes, can it be done again of course, especially in a pass happy league. But I wouldn't get too excited about that.

90TDs, 14,000 yards, and 1,000 catches, that's the benchmark for a Hall of Fame receiving resume. You hit the TDs and you're in, and that's Mike's clearest path to Canton. If he stays healthy he should top that in the next two years, maybe this year if he's lucky. The other two are possible if he's an ironman and keeps consistent quarterback play around him.

Personally, I think Evans can make it if he gets himself them tuddies. That plus the Superbowl ring (or two?), plus the consecutive yards streak, which if it continues to go could make it more well-known around the league by fans and voters. Toss in a half dozen Pro Bowls for flavor and I think he has more than a puncher's chance.

[Defense5599]

Last year was the first time I’ve heard several national talking heads refer to Evans as “likely future HOF”. That is a positive change in how he is viewed.

IMO, if he were to retire today, he'd be a first ballot HOFer. His numbers don't lie.

[uscbucsfan]

Last year was the first time I’ve heard several national talking heads refer to Evans as “likely future HOF”. That is a positive change in how he is viewed.

IMO, if he were to retire today, he'd be a first ballot HOFer. His numbers don't lie.

I don't think you'd find many that back this. First ballot with his current resume? I guess Sterling Sharpe is a slam dunk.

Mike needs some additional work to just get in, much less first ballot.

[uscbucsfan]

@Cheb those numbers are going to dramatically shift for QBs and WRs or everyone will get in. There's absolutely an inflation of numbers.

[acmillis]

Last year was the first time I’ve heard several national talking heads refer to Evans as “likely future HOF”. That is a positive change in how he is viewed.

IMO, if he were to retire today, he'd be a first ballot HOFer. His numbers don't lie.

I don't think you'd get anybody on this board, much less some non-biased voters to agree that he's a first balloter right now.

[The Outsider]

If Mike Evans retired today, I don't think he makes the Hall of Fame. Ring of Honor as best offensive Buc in team history (imo), absolutely. But a Hall of Famer he is not.

Not yet, anyway.

I think we can all agree that Mike can make the Hall if he stays healthy, shows consistency, and keeps being himself. So there must be a conceivable threshold that once he crosses it, he should be if not a lock for Canton then a serious contender.

Is the consecutive thousand yard seasons that threshold? Outside of this fanbase, I have never heard of anyone else being aware of this streak, much less care about it. And while consistency is itself a quality to be admired on a Hall of Fame resume, it's probably not going to be the thing that puts you over the top.

Let's focus on the low hanging fruit; TDs, yards, and receptions.

The first is the easiest. Here's a little nugget for ya; every pass catcher in NFL history who has 90 or more receiving touchdowns and is eligible for the Hall of Fame is in it. The three guys over that 90+ TD club who aren't in yet are Larry Fitzgerald, Antonio Gates, and Rob Gronkowski, all of whom are bound for Canton when they are eligible. Our boy Mike Evans has 75 receiving touchdowns currently, and will be playing his age 29 season this fall. If he gets 16 more touchdowns before he hangs them up, he crosses that finish line of 90+ tuddies. Hell, he might get that this year if he's lucky, Evans had 13 and 14 his last two years with Brady. Scheme up a few more goalline looks and if he stays healthy, who knows?

The next category is yards and it's a bit trickier. In looking at the list of top receiving yardage players, the magic number seems to be at or over 14,000 yards to increase your odds of a Hall of Fame spot, but it's not as money as touchdowns seem to be. Steve Smith Sr, Reggie Wayne, and Andre Johnson are all over 14k and still not in. Mike Evans is sitting at 9301 yards, so he has a 4699 yard mountain to climb. If Evans maintains his average season of 1162 yards per anum, he will join the 14k club in the 2026 season. Not impossible, to be sure, but the older Mike gets the more difficult it will become to maintain that average yardage, much less surpass it, and with a change in quarterback coming eventually to Tampa, that could absolutely destroy his odds of getting 14,000 career receiving yards.

Now we come to career receptions. Mike Evans has 606 right now. The "hard cutoff" for receptions, where everyone above that line is in the Hall or headed there, is 1076. If we drop that number down to 1000, we see some very good pass catchers who caught alot of balls but still ain't got a bust; Anquan Bolden, Reggie Wayne, Andre Johnson, Steve Smith Sr, and Hines Ward. Mike Evans would need to catch his average 75 balls a year for the next 6.75 seasons to hit 1000 catches. He's gonna be 29 on opening day, so he'd have to catch 75 balls a year until he's 35. Has it been done by the great of years past, yes, can it be done again of course, especially in a pass happy league. But I wouldn't get too excited about that.

90TDs, 14,000 yards, and 1,000 catches, that's the benchmark for a Hall of Fame receiving resume. You hit the TDs and you're in, and that's Mike's clearest path to Canton. If he stays healthy he should top that in the next two years, maybe this year if he's lucky. The other two are possible if he's an ironman and keeps consistent quarterback play around him.

Personally, I think Evans can make it if he gets himself them tuddies. That plus the Superbowl ring (or two?), plus the consecutive yards streak, which if it continues to go could make it more well-known around the league by fans and voters. Toss in a half dozen Pro Bowls for flavor and I think he has more than a puncher's chance.

Also, think about it this way from the TD perspective. Mike can hit that 90 number with a big year this season alone. If he puts up 7-8 TDs a season for the next 5 years he's knocking on the door of the top 10. If Brady sticks around past this season there's a solid chance he slides in there in a couple seasons. It won't matter if Mike only has 12-13000 yards and 8-900 receptions if he has 110+ TDs by the time he's done.

Edit: Something I just realized from looking at the all-time TD list, as of right now Mike Evans has the most receiving touchdowns among NFL players currently under contract. The only technically active players ahead of him? Rob Gronkowski and Antonio Brown. One of those guys is almost definitely done, so there's a chance that Evans goes in to the season as the leader in receiving TDs among active players. Pretty cool.

Double Edit: Oh, Jimmy Graham too. But ask yourself, is Jimmy Graham even a real person?

[uscbucsfan]

If Brady sticks around past this season there's a solid chance he slides in there in a couple seasons.

What is the likeliness of this? Less than 5%? It's not 0, but close.