In the first round of the 2023 NFL draft, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers select...

[mdb1958]

For comparison.

https://www.nfldraftbuzz.com/Player/Zay ... tonCollege

https://www.nfldraftbuzz.com/Player/And ... -Princeton

Zay Flowers to me is very AB like. Not big, but incredibly sudden in movement, highly nuanced as a receiver, and highly competitive for the ball. It’s a great combo.

I'm just tracking the other guy, he's a fifth rounder right now and I wonder where he will be by draft time.

[Doctor]

The more I see the more I want Ringo

[MJW]

My point was not to run down Robinson. I wouldn't put him in that AD/Barkley class, but he's only a half-step below.

For many reasons, I don't really believe in drafting running backs that high. We can have that argument - again - if you guys want.

For our case specifically, drafting a running back in the first round would be mind boggling. It would be worse for me than drafting a kicker in the 2nd round, considering where we're at as a franchise.

I still remember this argument when you said you’d rather take who’s there in the 4th than Kamara or Cook in the 2nd. We took mcNichols in the 4th.

In terms of who we take this year, depends where we’re picking. Zay Flowers would be a steal in the 2nd round and would bring much needed speed and suddenness to our offence.

We could have taken Aaron Jones where we picked McNichols. Or Chris Carson. Or Austin Ekeler.

You're confusing poor scouting with poor process.

[MJW]

The more I see the more I want Ringo

Elite athlete, lotta bad tape with good tape. A good risk at #18. Not sure how I'd feel in the top ten.

[Doctor]

I still remember this argument when you said you’d rather take who’s there in the 4th than Kamara or Cook in the 2nd. We took mcNichols in the 4th.

In terms of who we take this year, depends where we’re picking. Zay Flowers would be a steal in the 2nd round and would bring much needed speed and suddenness to our offence.

We could have taken Aaron Jones where we picked McNichols. Or Chris Carson. Or Austin Ekeler.

You're confusing poor scouting with poor process.

Ah, the eternal fountain of the draft groupie... hindsight.

[Snake]

If the draft is a total crapshoot, let the janitor throw darts at the draft board.

Lol!

[real bucs fan]

I still remember this argument when you said you’d rather take who’s there in the 4th than Kamara or Cook in the 2nd. We took mcNichols in the 4th.

In terms of who we take this year, depends where we’re picking. Zay Flowers would be a steal in the 2nd round and would bring much needed speed and suddenness to our offence.

We could have taken Aaron Jones where we picked McNichols. Or Chris Carson. Or Austin Ekeler.

You're confusing poor scouting with poor process.

At the time you chose McNichols as your guy as well. Bottom line is hit rate is significantly worse on Day 3.

[MJW]

We could have taken Aaron Jones where we picked McNichols. Or Chris Carson. Or Austin Ekeler.

You're confusing poor scouting with poor process.

At the time you chose McNichols as your guy as well. Bottom line is hit rate is significantly worse on Day 3.

Yes, and it's still higher at the running back position than any other position. That's the entire point. It's still MUCH easier to find a successful running back on Day 3 (or undrafted) than it is a quarterback, an offensive linemen, etc.

The point is to maximize the benefit to your football team with every resource (read: draft pick) expended. Picking a running back high is not doing that.

[MJW]

We could have taken Aaron Jones where we picked McNichols. Or Chris Carson. Or Austin Ekeler.

You're confusing poor scouting with poor process.

Ah, the eternal fountain of the draft groupie... hindsight.

The point wasn't "hindsight."

We missed on McNichols. He's suggesting this is evidence that waiting to take a running back was a mistake. That's confusing the player (McNichols) with the thought process (waiting for a running back.)

I can't really explain it any simpler than that.

[MJW]

If the draft is a total crapshoot, let the janitor throw darts at the draft board.

Lol!

It's just...not that complicated. Egads.

To put it simply:

Let's say you only have 2 picks in the draft, a 1st and a 4th. Just to keep it simple.

You evaluate every player in the draft and assign them each a grade, 1-10.

You decide you will walk away from this draft with a quarterback and a running back (approaching the draft this way is a mistake, but that's another topic.)

Still with me?

It's your first round pick. You have a quarterback available you rate as an 8, and a running back available you rate as a 9. Simple, right, you take the running back. Done and done. He's the better prospect.

Well, yeah. If you're an idiot, or Dave Gettleman (but I repeat myself.) If you're not an idiot, you also look at your possible options in the 4th round. Huh, it looks like you expect running backs to be available you have rated as 7s But the best quarterbacks are rated as 5s.

We'll put away all the stuff about positional VALUE here (which ALSO hurts the running back), or the way the game is evolving. We'll just talk about getting the most bang for your buck by understanding positional SCARCITY.

Take the RB in the 1st and the QB in the 4th, and you've added 14 points to your roster.
Take the QB in the 1st and the RB in the 4th, and you've added 15 points to your roster.

Assuming you've baked in all factors you could about the prospects into that 1-10 grade, the second choice helps your team more. And this is basically the scenario every year. QBs graded as starter caliber (or better) go in the first round. Usually HIGH in the first round. Meanwhile, quality running backs are ALWAYS available later. ALWAYS.

Throw in other factors, like -

- How easily a good OL can make an average running back look great.
- How even top running backs in the league rarely see 70% of their team's carries in this era (Derrick Henry, in his 2,000 yard season, accounted for 78% of his team's non-QB rushes, and that's a HUGE outlier.)
- How the rules in this era now encourage the pass to set up the run.
- How many modern offenses manufacture "rushing" yards throw high percentage horizontal passing.
ETC

Taking a running back high, even a good one, is a mistake.

[acmillis]

Kind of on topic… who is going to (OVERRRRR) pay Josh Jacobs?

[MJW]

Kind of on topic… who is going to (OVERRRRR) pay Josh Jacobs?

Whoever pays Josh Jacobs?

J/K but really.

I would be astounded if the Raiders are shrewd enough to let him leave. That implies a level of long-term thinking and wisdom that they've rarely shown over the last 30+ years.

Top Five New Destinations, IMHO;

- Bills. The concept would be pretty attractive considering how loaded they are elsewhere.
- Bears. David Montgomery is a Free Agent and he's been wildly inconsistent. Eberflus came from a Jonathan Taylor offense.
- Falcons. I have to think they want a "real" RB. And their coach ran the O in Derrick Henry's best seasons.
- Panthers. Tough to say with no idea who the coach will be. But I can't believe they'll trust the guys they have 100%.
- Rams. A moderate need, and an extremely On-Brand kinda move for them.

Dark Horses: Eagles, Dolphins, Ravens.

[acmillis]

Kind of on topic… who is going to (OVERRRRR) pay Josh Jacobs?

Whoever pays Josh Jacobs?

J/K but really.

I would be astounded if the Raiders are shrewd enough to let him leave. That implies a level of long-term thinking and wisdom that they've rarely shown over the last 30+ years.

Top Five New Destinations, IMHO;

- Bills. The concept would be pretty attractive considering how loaded they are elsewhere.
- Bears. David Montgomery is a Free Agent and he's been wildly inconsistent. Eberflus came from a Jonathan Taylor offense.
- Falcons. I have to think they want a "real" RB. And their coach ran the O in Derrick Henry's best seasons.
- Panthers. Tough to say with no idea who the coach will be. But I can't believe they'll trust the guys they have 100%.
- Rams. A moderate need, and an extremely On-Brand kinda move for them.

Dark Horses: Eagles, Dolphins, Ravens.

I could see LV tagging him, but that would be hella dumb. That'd be 15M with no cap wiggle.

[MJW]

Whoever pays Josh Jacobs?

J/K but really.

I would be astounded if the Raiders are shrewd enough to let him leave. That implies a level of long-term thinking and wisdom that they've rarely shown over the last 30+ years.

Top Five New Destinations, IMHO;

- Bills. The concept would be pretty attractive considering how loaded they are elsewhere.
- Bears. David Montgomery is a Free Agent and he's been wildly inconsistent. Eberflus came from a Jonathan Taylor offense.
- Falcons. I have to think they want a "real" RB. And their coach ran the O in Derrick Henry's best seasons.
- Panthers. Tough to say with no idea who the coach will be. But I can't believe they'll trust the guys they have 100%.
- Rams. A moderate need, and an extremely On-Brand kinda move for them.

Dark Horses: Eagles, Dolphins, Ravens.

I could see LV tagging him, but that would be hella dumb. That'd be 15M with no cap wiggle.

The saving grace of that would be there'd be no long-term money involved and they might still get "contract year" Josh Jacobs one more time. But there's still no damn way I'd consider it.

The Raiders, though? Yeah. They're the Raiders.

[Doctor]

Teams don't use non exclusive tags enough.

[real bucs fan]

At the time you chose McNichols as your guy as well. Bottom line is hit rate is significantly worse on Day 3.

Yes, and it's still higher at the running back position than any other position. That's the entire point. It's still MUCH easier to find a successful running back on Day 3 (or undrafted) than it is a quarterback, an offensive linemen, etc.

The point is to maximize the benefit to your football team with every resource (read: draft pick) expended. Picking a running back high is not doing that.

A good FO should identify the strengths and weaknesses of a draft. Not every draft is the same. In 2017 the strength of the draft was the RBs, and we had a chance to land an impactful one and didn’t. While teams should be cautious using first round capital on a RB, waiting until Day 3 is a mistake.

Even in a strong RB draft, Impactful RBs don’t fall past Day 2 very often. Day 2 is where you should target RBs.

[MJW]

Yes, and it's still higher at the running back position than any other position. That's the entire point. It's still MUCH easier to find a successful running back on Day 3 (or undrafted) than it is a quarterback, an offensive linemen, etc.

The point is to maximize the benefit to your football team with every resource (read: draft pick) expended. Picking a running back high is not doing that.

A good FO should identify the strengths and weaknesses of a draft. Not every draft is the same. In 2017 the strength of the draft was the RBs, and we had a chance to land an impactful one and didn’t. While teams should be cautious using first round capital on a RB, waiting until Day 3 is a mistake.

Even in a strong RB draft, Impactful RBs don’t fall past Day 2 very often. Day 2 is where you should target RBs.

Seems to me if a draft is "strong" at a position, a good GM would recognize that and wait to find a guy at that position. For example, that same draft very few impact tackles. The Saints, who you're giving credit to for taking Kamara, didn't take Kamara in the first round. They got their tackle, Ryan Ramcyzk. They didn't even take him in the 2nd round. They took a guy from another scarce position, a safety in Marcus Williams. They waited on their back, recognizing that if they didn't get Kamara, they could still get someone they rated highly at the position later on. But they couldn't find a tackle remotely as good as Ramcyzk or a safety as good as Marcus Williams.

That's the point I'm trying to make here.

[real bucs fan]

A good FO should identify the strengths and weaknesses of a draft. Not every draft is the same. In 2017 the strength of the draft was the RBs, and we had a chance to land an impactful one and didn’t. While teams should be cautious using first round capital on a RB, waiting until Day 3 is a mistake.

Even in a strong RB draft, Impactful RBs don’t fall past Day 2 very often. Day 2 is where you should target RBs.

Seems to me if a draft is "strong" at a position, a good GM would recognize that and wait to find a guy at that position. For example, that same draft very few impact tackles. The Saints, who you're giving credit to for taking Kamara, didn't take Kamara in the first round. They got their tackle, Ryan Ramcyzk. They didn't even take him in the 2nd round. They took a guy from another scarce position, a safety in Marcus Williams. They waited on their back, recognizing that if they didn't get Kamara, they could still get someone they rated highly at the position later on. But they couldn't find a tackle remotely as good as Ramcyzk or a safety as good as Marcus Williams.

That's the point I'm trying to make here.

Well I absolutely agree that you should take advantage of where the depth of a draft is. Seems though 2nd/3rd is the sweet spot for running backs.

[Doctor]

[BucsNBills]

So according to Mike Renner, PFF's main draft guy, there are three "Blue Chip" players in this draft: Will Anderson, Jalen Carter, and...Bijon Robinson. Which then leaves us with choosing between chasing need vs adding overall talent and special players to the team. Mind you, the PFF draft guys are super anti RB in the 1st round, they never advocate for it, except for Bijon. That's how special he is.

Do we pass on a truly special player to chase need and maybe end up with just a JAG guard? Or a bust LT? Because this draft class is not very deep at the tackle position and we still have our 2nd and 3rd round picks to address the Oline.

I get going after the Oline, and if we do so be it. I get the idea behind it. But I don't want to pass up on Special in exchange for Average just because it lines up with some bullet point on Draft Strategy 101.

[mdb1958]

Why would the three special players be there at 19?

[acmillis]

So according to Mike Renner, PFF's main draft guy, there are three "Blue Chip" players in this draft: Will Anderson, Jalen Carter, and...Bijon Robinson. Which then leaves us with choosing between chasing need vs adding overall talent and special players to the team. Mind you, the PFF draft guys are super anti RB in the 1st round, they never advocate for it, except for Bijon. That's how special he is.

Do we pass on a truly special player to chase need and maybe end up with just a JAG guard? Or a bust LT? Because this draft class is not very deep at the tackle position and we still have our 2nd and 3rd round picks to address the Oline.

I get going after the Oline, and if we do so be it. I get the idea behind it. But I don't want to pass up on Special in exchange for Average just because it lines up with some bullet point on Draft Strategy 101.

If he’s that special, won’t he be gone by the time we pick.

If he is still there… still….no

[_MB_]

Let's get started...

It's malpractice for a GM to not address the needs of the football team. That's what the draft and free agency is for.

"Pure BPA" is just guessing. That's not a strategy.

It's not a reach if the guy will be gone by your next pick.

There's nothing wrong with drafting a RB from Wisconsin or a QB from Oregon. Jonathan Taylor and Justin Herbert say hi.

College performance is only indictive of potential.

Even the #1 overall pick is a developmental project.

Fight me.

[mdb1958]

BUF
Received:

Pick 19 - Bijan Robinson
TB
Received:

Pick 29
Pick 61
Pick 162

[BucsNBills]

Reading and watching some more on Tanner McKee, and I'm starting to like what I see. He's got a ton of arm talent, has Josh Allen size, and while he doesn't have his pure athleticism, he is absolutely not a statue. He has good straight line speed so he can punish open lanes up the middle with his legs. He has the movement skills needed to run a Shanny style offense and has some escapability as well. But he's clearly first and foremost, a pocket passer.

But man does he have an arm on him. He's deadly accurate and can throw from multiple arm angles. Unfortunately he plays on a dogshit team so his stats aren't eye popping, but personally I think it's a good thing when college QBs have to deal with tons of problems on the offense as that better prepares them for the NFL. He's also used to his receivers not having a ton of separation, so his transition to the NFL is going to be smoother than someone like Bryce Young who is throwing to receivers that often don't even have a defender within camera view.

Not pounding the table, but he's an option at QB I wouldn't hate.

[mdb1958]

Reading and watching some more on Tanner McKee, and I'm starting to like what I see. He's got a ton of arm talent, has Josh Allen size, and while he doesn't have his pure athleticism, he is absolutely not a statue. He has good straight line speed so he can punish open lanes up the middle with his legs. He has the movement skills needed to run a Shanny style offense and has some escapability as well. But he's clearly first and foremost, a pocket passer.

But man does he have an arm on him. He's deadly accurate and can throw from multiple arm angles. Unfortunately he plays on a dogshit team so his stats aren't eye popping, but personally I think it's a good thing when college QBs have to deal with tons of problems on the offense as that better prepares them for the NFL. He's also used to his receivers not having a ton of separation, so his transition to the NFL is going to be smoother than someone like Bryce Young who is throwing to receivers that often don't even have a defender within camera view.

Not pounding the table, but he's an option at QB I wouldn't hate.

Just did a sim where I drafted Clayton Tune in the fifth and Tyson Bagent in the seventh.

[Doctor]

BUF
Received:

Pick 19 - Bijan Robinson
TB
Received:

Pick 29
Pick 61
Pick 162

What a home run for the Bills

[Big Irv]

I'll be happy with OLine or DLine. I see way too many mocks having us pick QB. Our pass rush has been weak this year. Even with Shaq. Of course, we all know the OLine struggles. Time to replace Donny Smith.

[Doctor]

At the time you chose McNichols as your guy as well. Bottom line is hit rate is significantly worse on Day 3.

Yes, and it's still higher at the running back position than any other position. That's the entire point. It's still MUCH easier to find a successful running back on Day 3 (or undrafted) than it is a quarterback, an offensive linemen, etc.

The point is to maximize the benefit to your football team with every resource (read: draft pick) expended. Picking a running back high is not doing that.

The overall lesson there is to not actually count on your day 3 guys being your answer in any capacity, even RB.

[mdb1958]

Yes, and it's still higher at the running back position than any other position. That's the entire point. It's still MUCH easier to find a successful running back on Day 3 (or undrafted) than it is a quarterback, an offensive linemen, etc.

The point is to maximize the benefit to your football team with every resource (read: draft pick) expended. Picking a running back high is not doing that.

The overall lesson there is to not actually count on your day 3 guys being your answer in any capacity, even RB.

So? They are there for getting snacks for the coaches and elites?

[13F11B]

Yes, and it's still higher at the running back position than any other position. That's the entire point. It's still MUCH easier to find a successful running back on Day 3 (or undrafted) than it is a quarterback, an offensive linemen, etc.

The point is to maximize the benefit to your football team with every resource (read: draft pick) expended. Picking a running back high is not doing that.

The overall lesson there is to not actually count on your day 3 guys being your answer in any capacity, even RB.

Never count on them... but hope for Brock Purdy or Tom Brady, right?

[Cheb]

The more I look at Broderick Jones, OT from Georgia, the more I think he'd be a hell of a pick at 19.

[real bucs fan]

Yes, and it's still higher at the running back position than any other position. That's the entire point. It's still MUCH easier to find a successful running back on Day 3 (or undrafted) than it is a quarterback, an offensive linemen, etc.

The point is to maximize the benefit to your football team with every resource (read: draft pick) expended. Picking a running back high is not doing that.

The overall lesson there is to not actually count on your day 3 guys being your answer in any capacity, even RB.

Maybe at Punter? Lol

But agree 100%. There are certain positions though where you can find impact players on Day 2. RB is one of them. Safety, TE, and interior lineman as well I’d say.

[Doctor]

3 Day picks should be "by golly gee" gems that worked out.

If you are going in DEPENDING that they are your answer at a position, you are already in trouble.

[_MB_]

The more I look at Broderick Jones, OT from Georgia, the more I think he'd be a hell of a pick at 19.

If we're going to shed our left tackle to get out of cap hell I think it'd be prudent to plug that very big hole in the roster.

We could have two young studs at tackle.