Try to win or rebuild?

[Nobody]

They’ll try to win, but it will yield 5-7 win purgatory for a few years.

With Marpet retiring and a possible entire reconstruction of the iOL and the loss of Marpet’s adjacent play and Brady’s unparalleled processing, I expect DSmith’s play to plummet back to where it historically was before Brady (the game against the Rams for instance); a bottom tier pass protector, a gas-tank rationer, and a propensity for catastrophic drive-killing reps in the 2nd half.

I expect OLine play to be a huge problem next year. QB a train-wreck. Godwin and Gronk and Cappa not to be here. Jensen may price himself out or have no interest in existing in a situation with 2 new unproven Guards adjacent. Sum told = a brutally inefficient, turnover prone, RZ-struggling offense. Probably 23 or worse DVOA.

Defense I expect CD3 to be back on franchise. Whitehead 50/50 he’s back (with a lean toward back). Gholston 50/50. Who knows what we’ll get out of White. LVD career winding down. Winfield further ascension and great Safety play by the guys back there. SMB to be injured and/or unreliable. Dean injured too much but a solid cover player when he’s in. JTS and Barrett and Vea having huge responsibility to cover up for everything behind them.

A competitive unit on defense but put in a lot of terrible spots by the offense so they look much worse than they actually are.

Bad kick/punt coverage and return units.

We’ll see on FG. Could go bank to the calamity if yore with the possible bad vibes and heavy responsibility it will again shoulder.

Preparing for some lean, lean years (so nothing new!).

[King Bootz]

The Bengals this year showed me anything is possible. They had no reason winning that division. Let alone an AFC Championship and coming within 3 points of winning a Super Bowl.

Try to win. Every year.

[uscbucsfan]

The Bengals this year showed me anything is possible. They had no reason winning that division. Let alone an AFC Championship and coming within 3 points of winning a Super Bowl.

Try to win. Every year.

Who will be our Joe Burrow?

[King Bootz]

The Bengals this year showed me anything is possible. They had no reason winning that division. Let alone an AFC Championship and coming within 3 points of winning a Super Bowl.

Try to win. Every year.

Who will be our Joe Burrow?

This isn't a knock on Burrow, but it shouldn't be hard to find a QB that can average a turnover a game.

Seriously, everything people thought they knew about how teams championships went out of the window. They said you needed a QB that didn't turn the ball over. Stafford threw the most picks in football, Burrow wasn't far behind at 4th most. They said you needed a good Oline. Cincy had probably the worst Oline in football this year. Run game? Neither team was great. Defense? Rams had it. Cincy did not.

This year pretty much showed that any team can compete. Even if they turn it over a ton.

[bucarican]

Who will be our Joe Burrow?

This isn't a knock on Burrow, but it shouldn't be hard to find a QB that can average a turnover a game.

Seriously, everything people thought they knew about how teams championships went out of the window. They said you needed a QB that didn't turn the ball over. Stafford threw the most picks in football, Burrow wasn't far behind at 4th most. They said you needed a good Oline. Cincy had probably the worst Oline in football this year. Run game? Neither team was great. Defense? Rams had it. Cincy did not.

This year pretty much showed that any team can compete. Even if they turn it over a ton.

Color me surprised with this post. I can't believe I am saying this but, I agree.

[Nobody]

Who will be our Joe Burrow?

This isn't a knock on Burrow, but it shouldn't be hard to find a QB that can average a turnover a game.

Seriously, everything people thought they knew about how teams championships went out of the window. They said you needed a QB that didn't turn the ball over. Stafford threw the most picks in football, Burrow wasn't far behind at 4th most. They said you needed a good Oline. Cincy had probably the worst Oline in football this year. Run game? Neither team was great. Defense? Rams had it. Cincy did not.

This year pretty much showed that any team can compete. Even if they turn it over a ton.

I've been on the same page with you on a hell of a lot of things lately, but not on this one.

Burrows was incredible last year given him coming off a catastrophic knee injury, its just year 2, and despite playing behind the 2nd worse Pass Blocking OL in the NFL (Adjusted Sack Rate and Pressure Rate as OL Responsibility...and we don't even need that...we just need the optics) and a middling one overall. He was top 6 in Big Time Throws, top 4 in Turnover Worthy Plays, had the highest Adjusted Completion % in the league and was tremendously efficient. Again, despite the horrific OL.

All of his analytics are fantastic and they're particularly fantastic in key situations. PFF has a really good article on 2021 QBing here (and this is without context for how terrible their OL is...yes, Sacks are overwhelmingly a QB stat...but not in this case...this particular OL is just awful at the majority of positions). https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-final-2021 ... k-rankings

And he was better down the stretch when they had to win.

Their formula last year was:

Elite QB play (that clearly galvanized the team)
+ Elite Special Teams
+ Opportunistic Defense that got much better as the year went on
+ Awful Division

For us, we've got those latter two. But we're going going to be saddled by bottom of the barrel QBing and terrible Special Teams (as always). And that bottom of the barrel QBing is going to amplify the problems that are going to face us on offense (iOL complete rebuild + Arians offenses are more QB dependent and more inherently volatile without elite QBing than any offense in the league).

[MJW]

The Bengals this year showed me anything is possible. They had no reason winning that division. Let alone an AFC Championship and coming within 3 points of winning a Super Bowl.

Try to win. Every year.

"Anything is possible" isn't a plan. By the "anything is possible" mantra, a lotto ticket is a sensible investment.

Also, the Bengals didn't wake up one morning and become AFC Champs. They had been building their roster for several years. They had found a franchise quarterback and a generational weapon in consecutive drafts. They spent over $100 mil in free agency in consecutive years. What the Bengals did was only possible BECAUSE they embraced a rebuild first. That's why they had those early picks. That's why they had all that cap room.

We're heading in the other direction. We're drafting late for the 2nd consecutive year after getting no impact from last year's class. Free agency is going to make us worse, not better. This is when you try to be the Bengals three years ago so you can be the Bengals in 2024. This is not when you say "YOLO."

[Grahamburn]

Correct. The Bengals “tanked” for multiple years. Early picks. Cheap contracts. Then they got their core guys and spent a ton of cash around them.

The Bucs have enough good players to win 6-9 games, but aren’t a championship caliber roster anymore. They’re picking late this year and have no money. No QB. If you have no QB you need to get in position to acquire one. There are some major QB prospects coming out next year so the time to get in position for one is now.

With Arians still here it’s clear that’s not the plan though.

[13F11B]

Honestly, the decision to either pursue Godwin or let him go is this question in a whole.

If we keep him; we have 2 top 10 receivers to compete with any QB trotted out there, and one of them is a top blocking receiver too. If we let him go; well… you saw our receiving corps after he went down. Perriman and Grayson. Evans balls out no matter what.

I would change that to "If we keep him; we have 2 top 10 receivers to compete with any QB trotted out there," I say that because Jameis Winston had those two and could not even get to the playoffs.

[BJJ34]

Honestly, the decision to either pursue Godwin or let him go is this question in a whole.

If we keep him; we have 2 top 10 receivers to compete with any QB trotted out there, and one of them is a top blocking receiver too. If we let him go; well… you saw our receiving corps after he went down. Perriman and Grayson. Evans balls out no matter what.

I would change that to "If we keep him; we have 2 top 10 receivers to compete with any QB trotted out there," I say that because Jameis Winston had those two and could not even get to the playoffs.

He had his statistical greatest season minus INT’s though.

[13F11B]

I would change that to "If we keep him; we have 2 top 10 receivers to compete with any QB trotted out there," I say that because Jameis Winston had those two and could not even get to the playoffs.

He had his statistical greatest season minus INT’s though.

Don't forget about the fumbles.

[nybf]

Take away the fumbles, and the picks, and the losses, and he was a damn good qb.

[MJW]

Correct. The Bengals “tanked” for multiple years. Early picks. Cheap contracts. Then they got their core guys and spent a ton of cash around them.

The Bucs have enough good players to win 6-9 games, but aren’t a championship caliber roster anymore. They’re picking late this year and have no money. No QB. If you have no QB you need to get in position to acquire one. There are some major QB prospects coming out next year so the time to get in position for one is now.

With Arians still here it’s clear that’s not the plan though.

Yep. This all just comes to mind again looking at the Broncos and the Seahawks.

Broncos: Have been accumulating young talent. Good cap situation. Lots of draft capital. Were arguably a QB away from making a real run. Went out and got him.

Seahawks: Mediocre 53 after years of poor drafting and the arguably ill-advised Jamal Adams trade. Bad cap situation. Great QB, but 33 and coming off his worst season. Recognize it'll be 2-4 good/great offseasons before they're in a position to contend again. So they trade the aging QB and cut bait on the expensive, aging star defender (Wagner.) They acquire a bunch of draft capital and cap space for that future push.

We're the Seahawks, except the quarterback is already gone. The 53 is still pretty good, but it's not Lombardi good, the cap situation sucks, and we're going to lose a lot of young talent over the next 14 months. We have very little draft capital and no real way to acquire more short-term. The holes on our roster started to hurt last year, and they're only going to get more glaring before they get better.

If we're smart, we lean in to what's about to happen either way. We're on the downside of the slope. You can't climb back up once you're on the way down. But you can position yourself to get up the next hill faster.

Unfortunately, there likely is no "next hill" for Bruce Arians, so we're likely going to ignore all that and try to claw our way back up the last hill.

[Nobody]

We won’t rebuild with a 69 year old coach and we don’t have the draft capital and FA $ to do so.

We won’t win with the worst QB room in the NFL + a freshly gutted iOL + losing the best CB in an already shaky CB room + empty RB room (if this offense is rolling with this QB room it better have a top 5 passing game capable RB to rely upon to convert RZ tight and 3rd downs).

What is behind door # 3? Suck and sieve?

[MJW]

We won’t rebuild with a 69 year old coach and we don’t have the draft capital and FA $ to do so.

We won’t win with the worst QB room in the NFL + a freshly gutted iOL + losing the best CB in an already shaky CB room + empty RB room (if this offense is rolling with this QB room it better have a top 5 passing game capable RB to rely upon to convert RZ tight and 3rd downs).

What is behind door # 3? Suck and sieve?

It's almost impossible to feel good about this year. We're going to try to go 10-7. Not, like, that'll be the goal, but that'll be the best possible outcome with this roster and these resources. We're going to hope we're 2022's Raiders or Eagles. Maybe we'll hang an "NFC Divisional Champs" Banner before losing to the 49ers 33-6 in the Wildcard.

In reality, we should be aiming for 3-14, cleared cap space, maximum draft capital, and a shot at CJ Stroud or Bryce Young. And if BA wasn't on board with that, we should have asked him to re-retire when Brady did. Because all the alternative will accomplish is extending the rebuild.

[Backside]

Edit^ If Trask/Gabbert can net us a top QB pick in the next draft, I'm all over that as well.


With the division we're in, it makes no sense not try at least try. We still probably have the best roster.

We don't have a bunch of veteran players who could net us good picks anyway. Our trade assets are mostly young players already on rookie contracts, not really the players you give up to rebuild.

If we can get passable QB play, Macgyver a decent Oline, and have a nice draft. We should be division favorites.

[real bucs fan]

I think you just roll with Trask and see what you’ve got. He won’t have to be Brady to carry us to a division title. Then next year you reevaluate. Either keep it going with Trask, make a move for a vet QB, or rebuild.

[BearLandBucFan]

I guess when I think rebuild, I think fire sale. We don't even have the ability to do that this year (I think) with the Cap. I say concentrate on OL/DL/Secondary in draft and roll with it.

[Cheb]

I think you just roll with Trask and see what you’ve got. He won’t have to be Brady to carry us to a division title. Then next year you reevaluate. Either keep it going with Trask, make a move for a vet QB, or rebuild.

Agreed completely.

Our division sucks balls. The Saints just lost Catbuttface as their head coach, who has had our number from the word go, and their roster is in the process of imploding due to the cap. The Falcons still have Matt Ryan but he's past his prime and the majority of that team is nothing special. The Panthers are a quagmire.

Give Trask the nod if he shows juice in camp, and let's see what the kid's got. Either Trask sucks and we know we need to make moves to replace him next season, or he shows enough flashes in his first year of starts for the team to support his continued development while we build the team around his cheap rookie deal, or Trask balls out and we look to put a stranglehold on our lead in the division.

Win-win-win, as far as I'm concerned. Yes, even if starting Trask backfires, because then we will KNOW that we need to make some aggressive moves at QB.

[MJW]

I think you just roll with Trask and see what you’ve got. He won’t have to be Brady to carry us to a division title. Then next year you reevaluate. Either keep it going with Trask, make a move for a vet QB, or rebuild.

Agreed completely.

Our division sucks balls. The Saints just lost Catbuttface as their head coach, who has had our number from the word go, and their roster is in the process of imploding due to the cap. The Falcons still have Matt Ryan but he's past his prime and the majority of that team is nothing special. The Panthers are a quagmire.

Give Trask the nod if he shows juice in camp, and let's see what the kid's got. Either Trask sucks and we know we need to make moves to replace him next season, or he shows enough flashes in his first year of starts for the team to support his continued development while we build the team around his cheap rookie deal, or Trask balls out and we look to put a stranglehold on our lead in the division.

Win-win-win, as far as I'm concerned. Yes, even if starting Trask backfires, because then we will KNOW that we need to make some aggressive moves at QB.

Thirded. Trask/Gabbert. Let Trask learn and grow. Use the savings (since we'd literally have the cheapest QB room in the league, depending on what the Texans do) to lock up a couple of young guys. See what you have in Trask. If it's promising or even good, hooray! If it's not, we'll end up picking pretty high in what should be a banner QB draft next year.

[kaimaru]

Great QB, but 33 and coming off his worst season.

I guess your QB evaluation is just as bad in the NFL. /jk

10 years played

Last year Russ:
5th best completion%
6th most passing yards per game
6th most TDs per game
2nd least interceptions per game

That is with him not being able to grip the ball properly after the injury. He talked about that after he returned week 9. Not bad for a QB that couldn't grip well with his middle finger for half of the season. I can't justify calling that his worst season.

[kaimaru]

I think Licht and Arians still will do everything they can to get someone better than Trask/Gabbert. I personally would add Tyler Huntley to that mix. Kid was getting killed behind that beat up offensive line. There are rumors that he can be gotten from the Ravens for a day 2 pick.

[Doctor]

The Bengals this year showed me anything is possible. They had no reason winning that division. Let alone an AFC Championship and coming within 3 points of winning a Super Bowl.

Try to win. Every year.

Freaking Bootz out here being the voice of reason.

This is sports. The best team doesn't always win. You go out there and you play out your story arc the best you can and leave it on the field.

I'll take that any day over "just keep sucking until you land a generational QB in a draft".

[MJW]

The Bengals this year showed me anything is possible. They had no reason winning that division. Let alone an AFC Championship and coming within 3 points of winning a Super Bowl.

Try to win. Every year.

Freaking Bootz out here being the voice of reason.

This is sports. The best team doesn't always win. You go out there and you play out your story arc the best you can and leave it on the field.

I'll take that any day over "just keep sucking until you land a generational QB in a draft".

This guy out here spittin' fire!

- The Ghost of AL Davis

[Grahamburn]

I think Licht and Arians still will do everything they can to get someone better than Trask/Gabbert. I personally would add Tyler Huntley to that mix. Kid was getting killed behind that beat up offensive line. There are rumors that he can be gotten from the Ravens for a day 2 pick.

I’m on board with this. Don’t think they will even consider it, but I’m on board. I mentioned his name in the “who do you want to be the next QB thread.” Huntley looks like he has “it.” I’d consider shipping Lamar if I were the Ravens to be completely honest.

For us? They’re going to re-sign Gabbert. There will be a “competition” between he and Trask to be the starter. Gabbert will start the season and we’ll see how it goes.

Because the division is so bad we’ll likely win just enough to make the playoffs and miss out on a high pick. Is that not an ok thing though?

Post-Brady life is tough. Lot of posters in here bagging on Licht and the front office, but those guys built the roster Brady chose to come to. And what a great two years it was.

[Buc2]

I read the article below this morning saying that the Bucs should go after Jordan Love now that the Packers and Rodgers have kissed and made up.

https://thepewterplank.com/2022/03/08/b ... ouncement/

[Defense5599]

I read the article below this morning saying that the Bucs should go after Jordan Love now that the Packers and Rodgers have kissed and made up.

https://thepewterplank.com/2022/03/08/b ... ouncement/

The Packers will not let him go for a day three pick. That would be admitting they wasted a first rounder. That being said, if he can be had for a day three pick, especially a sixth or seventh rounder, go for it. Let him compete with Trask for the starting job and see who comes out on top.

[Buc2]

I read the article below this morning saying that the Bucs should go after Jordan Love now that the Packers and Rodgers have kissed and made up.

https://thepewterplank.com/2022/03/08/b ... ouncement/

The Packers will not let him go for a day three pick. That would be admitting they wasted a first rounder. That being said, if he can be had for a day three pick, especially a sixth or seventh rounder, go for it. Let him compete with Trask for the starting job and see who comes out on top.

I tend to agree with all you said there. A day 3 pick is wishful thinking. But, yeah, if that's all they want, then go for it.

[mdb1958]

Gotta ask. Does this new fangled schoolin teach you that you cannot rebuild and try to win?

[MJW]

Gotta ask. Does this new fangled schoolin teach you that you cannot rebuild and try to win?

To be clear, players should always be trying to win no matter what.

That said, rebuilding while trying to win as many games as possible doesn't really work. The nature of rebuilding is taking your Ls now to get a Superbowl's worth of Ws later. You can't really feed both dogs. You're either maximizing resources for the future at the cost of success now, or you're doing the opposite of that.

To paraphrase Herm Edwards, the PLAYERS play to win the game. The ORGANIZATION should be playing to win Superbowls, and if it's not going to happen this year, the only goal should be helping your odds of it happening in the future.

[Buc2]

Gotta ask. Does this new fangled schoolin teach you that you cannot rebuild and try to win?

To be clear, players should always be trying to win no matter what.

That said, rebuilding while trying to win as many games as possible doesn't really work. The nature of rebuilding is taking your Ls now to get a Superbowl's worth of Ws later. You can't really feed both dogs. You're either maximizing resources for the future at the cost of success now, or you're doing the opposite of that.

To paraphrase Herm Edwards, the PLAYERS play to win the game. The ORGANIZATION should be playing to win Superbowls, and if it's not going to happen this year, the only goal should be helping your odds of it happening in the future.

This should be emblazoned on a huge banner and hung inside OBP for all to see every time they enter the building.

[Doctor]

Well now we know who is going to be team "Stephen Ross did nothing wrong"

[mdb1958]

Gotta ask. Does this new fangled schoolin teach you that you cannot rebuild and try to win?

To be clear, players should always be trying to win no matter what.

That said, rebuilding while trying to win as many games as possible doesn't really work. The nature of rebuilding is taking your Ls now to get a Superbowl's worth of Ws later. You can't really feed both dogs. You're either maximizing resources for the future at the cost of success now, or you're doing the opposite of that.

To paraphrase Herm Edwards, the PLAYERS play to win the game. The ORGANIZATION should be playing to win Superbowls, and if it's not going to happen this year, the only goal should be helping your odds of it happening in the future.

So you are not advocating the use of free agency scrapings after everyone go's on a rampage? You would agree that the pain of using rookies left over from this draft class would be better, just let them get their reps and earn their stripes while trying to win.

[MJW]

To be clear, players should always be trying to win no matter what.

That said, rebuilding while trying to win as many games as possible doesn't really work. The nature of rebuilding is taking your Ls now to get a Superbowl's worth of Ws later. You can't really feed both dogs. You're either maximizing resources for the future at the cost of success now, or you're doing the opposite of that.

To paraphrase Herm Edwards, the PLAYERS play to win the game. The ORGANIZATION should be playing to win Superbowls, and if it's not going to happen this year, the only goal should be helping your odds of it happening in the future.

So you are not advocating the use of free agency scrapings after everyone go's on a rampage? You would agree that the pain of using rookies left over from this draft class would be better, just let them get their reps and earn their stripes while trying to win.

For the most part, I agree with this. But while you're okay with losing this year, you don't want to embarrass yourself either. It's fine to add solid veteran during a tank to keep that from happening. The most important thing is you sign them to short-term deals with no lingering cap effects.

Ideally, a tanking team will have it's young talented core developing, veterans on one or two year deals supporting them, and depth provided by vet minimum guys and late rounders/UDFAs who fit the schemes.

[mdb1958]

So you are not advocating the use of free agency scrapings after everyone go's on a rampage? You would agree that the pain of using rookies left over from this draft class would be better, just let them get their reps and earn their stripes while trying to win.

For the most part, I agree with this. But while you're okay with losing this year, you don't want to embarrass yourself either. It's fine to add solid veteran during a tank to keep that from happening. The most important thing is you sign them to short-term deals with no lingering cap effects.

Ideally, a tanking team will have it's young talented core developing, veterans on one or two year deals supporting them, and depth provided by vet minimum guys and late rounders/UDFAs who fit the schemes.

I dont see our depth as developing players, more like cheap pick ups that we hope we never have to use. That leads me to o-line players - if they are not climbing the hill of eventual starter, why are they even here.

I even wish we'd trade Smith this year. POTENTIAL OUT: 2022, 1 YR, $14,250,000; $25,100,000 DEAD CAP