Mission: Create Cap Space and Resign Our Priority Free Agents

[Cheb]

The Bucs have a problem going into next year and it is a simple one. We only have 33 players under contract next season and about $20 million in cap space to round out the team. Here is the preliminary roster for your 2022 season Buccaneers:

QB: Tom Brady, Kyle Trask
RB: Ke'Shawn Vaughn
WR: Mike Evans, Scotty Miller, Tyler Johnson, Jaelon Darden, Cyril Grayson
C: Robert Hainsey, Donell Stanley
OG: Ali Marpet, Nick Leverett, Sadarius Hutcherson
OT: Tristan Wirfs, Donovan Smith
DT: Vita Vea, Rakeem Nunez-Roches
TE: Cameron Brate
EDGE: Shaq Barrett, Joe Tryon-Shoyinka, Anthony Nelson, Cam Gill
MLB: Devin White, Lavonte David, KJ Britt, Grant Stuard
CB: Sean Murphy-Bunting, Jamel Deal, Ross Cockrell
S: Antoine Winfield, Mike Edwards
P/K: Ryan Succop, Bradley Pinion

Needless to say, we have work to do.

The first job is going to be the creation of cap space. That $20 million in cap space that we have currently is due to drop to about $12 million in cap space after we pay our rookie class, and we have to pay 20 new members of our team just to round out the active roster, some of which are our own free agents who we would very much like to see back on the field. But those guys are expensive. So the goal circles back; we need to create cap space.

So, what are our options for creating space? We either need to cut existing expensive contracts, or we need to restructure the contracts of current players. We can make money both ways. Let's examine some moves we can make and look at the top options for both cuts and extensions.

Let's start with cuts, which is where our minds most often turn for savings. While we could go totally crazy and cut guys like Tom Brady and Mike Evans and Lavonte David to get the most money, lets assume that we have a few braincells to rub together and so would like to keep our best players here if at all possible. Assuming that Tom comes back and Arians, I doubt that Licht would want to implode our core players when our core is already going to be disseminated by free agency. Let's also be smart and cut these players after June 1st for considerably more savings. The goal is to create more cap space, after all.

Top Targets to Cut:
- Cameron Brate - If cut would yield $485k in dead money and 6.8 million in cap space. While I love the guy, he isn't worth $7 million dollars for the production he's giving us. He had 34 touches last season; if he gave us the same production next year, that's over $200k in per catch. No thanks, sorry buddy, good luck in free agency.
- Bradley Pinion - If cut would yield no dead money and 2.9 million in cap space. While he is a serviceable punter, he's also the eighth highest paid player at his position. Most of his compatriots make $2 million or less. Given his kickoff difficulties in the playoff loss, this is an easy cut to make for me. Perhaps it's just me being vindictive after the playoff loss.

That's it, Cheb? Only two guys to cut, for a grand total of $10 million in cap space? You suck at this! I know, I know. The issue is that our big money guys, the ones that could save us a ton, are all integral parts of the team. The only players we could cut who would net a savings of $4 million or more besides the aforementioned Brate are Tom Brady, Ali Marpet, Mike Evans, and Lavonte David. So let's assume we keep it somewhat conservative and only cut those two guys. Now our relative cap space is $22 million (20 initial minus the 8 for rookies plus the 10 for these cuts).

Okay, smart guy, so WHERE do we get the money? Restructures, my friend, restructures. Simply put, restructures convert base salaries and/or roster bonuses into signing bonuses. The player still gets paid, but the team has far more options from a cap perspective. Using these liberally, which is what we need to do if we are going to field a team in 2022, we could make considerable cap space. Here are some top targets for restructures on our team and the savings they would net (source is Overthecap.com):

- Tom Brady - $8.3 million
- Ali Marpet - $6.6 million
- Mike Evans - $9.6 million
- Shaq Barrett - $11.2 million
- Donovan Smith - $11 million
- Lavonte David - $8.5 million
Total savings - $55.2 million

Now we're cooking with gas! If we make just those six restructures in addition to the aforementioned two cuts, we now have an effective cap space of $77.2 million, and that's after paying our rookie class! This would in fact give us the most cap space in the NFL, free to do whatever we wish.

Now we circle back to our own free agents. Even flush with cash, we likely cannot afford to bring back everyone in the free agent class unless they uniformly take sweetheart deals, and I'm not sure we would want to get them all back either. But if we target our biggest fish, I think it would be wise. Here are the current OvertheCap valuations for some of our important pending free agents by cost and their best comp by average earnings per year, with some Spotrac valuations if available:

- Chris Godwin - $10.8 million per year, on par with Tyler Boyd. Spotrac has him valued at $18 million, which would have him tied for sixth highest paid receiver in the league with Tyreek Hill and Kenny Golladay; I think his value is somewhere in the middle there, especially coming off of injury, with escalators for performance in a quasi-"prove it" deal.
- Alex Cappa - $9 million per year, on par with Halapoulivaati Vaitai.
- Ryan Jensen - $9 million per year, on par with Matt Paradis.
- Rob Gronkowski - $8.8 million per year, on par with Zach Ertz. Spotrac thinks he's worth about $8.1 million.
- Leonard Fournette - $8 million per year, on par with Melvin Gordon. Spotrac thinks he's worth $6 million, on par with Nyheim Heines and Austin Eckler.
- Carlton Davis - $4 million per year, on par with Ahkello Witherspoon, which I think is way too low. Spotrac thinks he's worth $19.6 million per year, which would make him the second highest paid corner in the league behind Jalen Ramsey and a hair ahead of Marlon Humphrey and Marshon Lattimore -- that's ridiculous. His value is somewhere in the middle there, but where it is exactly is up for considerable debate.
- Jordan Whitehead - $4 million per year, on par with Anthony Harris.

So, current budget of $77.2 million; start making your pitches to their agents. While we can quibble over how much exactly Carlton Davis is worth or how much Godwin is after his injury, the point remains that this would give us more than enough space to do whatever we needed to do from a roster construction perspective.

---

I wanted to do this bit of a deeper dive for my own edification, to see if the sky was indeed going to fall next year. And while it still can, with eight little deals we can raise the roof so high we can't even see it anymore. Thanks for reading, and I'll be looking forward to reading your thoughts.

tl;dr - We have plenty of cap space if we want it.

[Monero]

This sounds good assuming Licht is proactive and makes this happen and we're able to actually sign those guys for the numbers you listed.

At the very least we can keep the offense together if we truly want to. I'd like to further support the offense in the draft as well. Someone like Treylon Burks with our #1 pick to be a true and dependable 3rd WR target would be my dream.

[Defense5599]

Very good write up, OP. This team needs to do some soul searching and some guys need to agree to restructures if they want to make another run next year. It's a team effort, even in contracts.

[uscbucsfan]

I think trying to undercut Godwin will equate to him leaving. He's too good and he'll get a huge deal on the FA market. The fact that you mentioned Kenny Golladay in your post shows you know the market will pay him big money as he's exponentially a better WR than Golladay ever has been.

[acmillis]

Paying 8m to a RB makes me want to vomit, but if Brady gives an ultimatum, welcome back, Lenny!
IMO, there is no way Godwin doesn't get at least 18M/year AAV. Pay him, spread his cap hit, we'll be fine.
Carlton Davis will get much, MUCH more than $4M/year IMO (as you said). I could see 4/70...from another team.
I'd be okay letting Jensen walk if we have to.
Brate is as good as gone, as should JPP and Sug (I know they're Fs, just saying).
I really want to keep Gholston and draft Dline early and often.

[bucarican]

Nice, break down. Are you taking in account the increase in CAP that is predicted?

I think once 12 makes his decision the rest of the chips will become clearer.

If 12 comes back, Lenny, Jensen, Godwin, Gronk, and Cappa all a must return.

The defense is going to be trickier. JPP may call it quits, who knows, SUH still is a damn good football player but may price his self out, Davis is going to get paid elsewhere, and Whitehead will also want some money. I think the core of the defense stays in tact, White, Shaq, LVD, and Vita. I think this is a draft we take the best Corner and DT available in the first 2 round, and later on draft for depth on the Oline.

[Doctor]

I think we need to admit we've been somewhat spoiled on talent the last couple of years. Between the great drafts and discount free agents, we've had a stacked team. Most teams, even the eventual champion, have some holes.

At the end of the day a lot of these guys are going to chase their payday and rightfully so. We're going to have a few more no-names on here than we'd like but we're just going to have to believe JL can still pick em.

[13F11B]

I think we need to admit we've been somewhat spoiled on talent the last couple of years.

So too has the coaching staff. I think that lends some credibility who point to the coaching staff being an issue. The 49ers staff have gotten more out of less this season.

[Dread]

Good write up. Imo the OP undercuts the value these guys will have in FA and thus what it would cost the Bucs to re-sign them. Even of their desire was to remain in Tampa and the feeling was mutual from the Bucs FO, players only take so much of a discount, if any at all.

I don't think there is any way both Cappa and Jensen are back. I'd bet neither are.

I don't believe we'll come close to what CD3 is offered in free agency. He is going to get paid a huge contract b/c despite his inconsistent play he still has pretty elite coverage stats amongst his peers. Big physical CBs who can play m2m are a premium.

I've come around on Godwin in the sense I think the Bucs will re-sign him now. I was against the idea b/c historically having so much cap space tied to the WR position hasn't been a very wise roster building strategy. But Godwin does so much for the offense and when he's right physically he's probably the mist valuable WR on the team due to how ingrained his role is in our offense.

I'd love to keep Whithead, but I think he made himself some money over the last month with how well he's played. With Mike Edwards going into year 4 on a cheap rookie deal I think Whitehead becomes expendable.

So we'll need a nickel CB, 3rd Safety, and Dlinemen to replace our losses defensively.

Offensively we'll need Oline depth, RB and TE.

The good news is that we have a teally good core coming back. If Brady returns we'll be able to add the pieces needed pretty easily since dudes will come ring chase with da GOAT.

I wouldn't mind a new kicker and punter also. Succup is a weaklegged pussy and Pinion makes too much not to be elite.

[Snake]

I hope Hainsey is ready to play next season. he’ll be 24 and had a year to marinate.

[Doctor]

I think we need to admit we've been somewhat spoiled on talent the last couple of years.

So too has the coaching staff. I think that lends some credibility who point to the coaching staff being an issue. The 49ers staff have gotten more out of less this season.

See, I take issue with the word issue. Issue implies we need to make a correction. We don't. Even the greatest coach of all times has made questionable calls. Calls that have cost Brady two rings. Doesn't mean you go replacing him.

Do I think the coaching staff is perfect? Heck no. But if you ask me any change is far more likely to result in step back rather than an improvement on a team that finished #2 and #5 in scoring offense and defense respectively.


There isn't a single coach or coordinator available out there I see as an upgrade over what we have and right now, imo, fans are suffering from a whole lot of knee jerk "grass is greener".

Every report from every person in OBP not named AB has been nothing but high praise for the incredible family we've built there during this regime and people wanna go and blow it all up over a loss playoff game.

[acmillis]

Lombardi ain’t walking in to one buc, we’d be lucky to have BA, Bowles and Byron back for a third year together

[13F11B]

So too has the coaching staff. I think that lends some credibility who point to the coaching staff being an issue. The 49ers staff have gotten more out of less this season.

See, I take issue with the word issue. Issue implies we need to make a correction. We don't. Even the greatest coach of all times has made questionable calls. Calls that have cost Brady two rings. Doesn't mean you go replacing him.

Do I think the coaching staff is perfect? Heck no. But if you ask me any change is far more likely to result in step back rather than an improvement on a team that finished #2 and #5 in scoring offense and defense respectively.


There isn't a single coach or coordinator available out there I see as an upgrade over what we have and right now, imo, fans are suffering from a whole lot of knee jerk "grass is greener".

Every report from every person in OBP not named AB has been nothing but high praise for the incredible family we've built there during this regime and people wanna go and blow it all up over a loss playoff game.

I can agree with not replacing the coaching staff. I don't want to replace either coordinator. I agree that replacing a coach causes ripples through the assistants, etc. Replacing coaches will require the rebuilding of the 'family' that is in that locker room. I 100% agree with you.

I do think this year there are some very good DC candidates out there and replacing Bowles would be relatively easier than last year. Brian Flores would be an excellent replacement for Bowles. Vic Fangio would be as well. Please note that I have mostly looked at those to guys due to the speculation that Bowles will get a head coaching offer and not because I want to get rid of Bowles.

[Doctor]

I love Vic and Flo as DC's in their own right. I do. But even so I see it as a lateral move at best and something we should have as a Plan B should we, unfortunately, lose Bowles to a HC job and not at all a Plan A we should be actively trying to achieve.

[Phantom]

If Godwin sign with other team, I suggest Bucs to pursue WR JuJu Smith Schuster (Steelers) via free agent. Another weapon for Tom Brady…

[Rocker]

If Godwin sign with other team, I suggest Bucs to pursue WR JuJu Smith Schuster (Steelers) via free agent. Another weapon for Tom Brady…

Ew. No.

[Crocaneers]

@Cheb either missed his calling, or does a really good job at his job

Very good read not tl .. and worth the investment and time spent.

It's all about getting TB12 back, and this list addresses it well. IMO

[Monero]

I'm not necessarily sure we should try to bring back our own guys. Are we sure there's not upgrades to be at for similar money? If the contracts are about the same, are we sure JC Jackson isn't a better investment than CD3? Not saying he is, but that should be evaluated. Or if we're serious about going all out for one last title run with Brady why not both JC and CD3? The cap can be managed with singing bonuses and prorating.

[acmillis]

If Godwin sign with other team, I suggest Bucs to pursue WR JuJu Smith Schuster (Steelers) via free agent. Another weapon for Tom Brady…

hard pass on JSS. Demonstrated history of not taking his profession serious enough, and Brady no-likey that type of player (anymore)

[Grahamburn]

Thanks for the work, Cheb.

[Nobody]

I hope Hainsey is ready to play next season. he’ll be 24 and had a year to marinate.

If Hainsey is playing Center next year, I have to believe it’s for a different QB.

No way Brady is returning to play behind a completely unproven, project Center.

That would make the rest of this exercise moot because we go from a 13 win SB contender to a 7 win 3rd prize is you’re fired with an average replacement-level QB.

And great post Cheb. But both Godwin and CD3 are surely 18+ M annual contracts. I can’t imagine the ACL will chase off all suitors from Godwin.

My guess is the best chance of retaining Brady is losing only CD3, Cappa, Suh, JPP.

If Giselle doesn’t register her veto power, Gronk doesn’t retire, and only those 4 are gone…then we have a chance Brady returns.

But let’s be real. This roster isn’t going to be close to as good as the SB winning roster, and that is assuming both Wirfs and. Godwin come back 100 %.

I feel like we may need some kind of shake-up/infusion of juice to lure him back for one more year (assuming he even has a vote).

[Snake]

Totally agree that it’s not close to a Super Bowl roster. It took some major luck in our favor to keep it close against the Rams and I don’t think the Rams are better than the bills or the Chiefs.

And this roster, even beat up, is likely to be better than whatever is put together next year

[uscbucsfan]

Totally agree that it’s not close to a Super Bowl roster. It took some major luck in our favor to keep it close against the Rams and I don’t think the Rams are better than the bills or the Chiefs.

And this roster, even beat up, is likely to be better than whatever is put together next year

As far as starting roster goes, a case can be made that the Rams may be the best in the NFL. Best Dline in football, great CBs, good offensive line, maybe the best WR core in football, good RB, and Stafford was mostly elite this season.

I think we can easily improve from JPP and Suh...the only big worry is replacing Davis and getting a reliable 3rd receiver. Miller wasn't trusted after he came back and TJ is...not good.

With White, he can only improve from this season, lol.

We can manipulate the cap and get LF, Godwin, Jensen, and some low cost depth and address other things in the draft.

Addition by subtraction, but JPP, Suh, and Tyler Johnson were not good this season.

[Dread]

I hope Hainsey is ready to play next season. he’ll be 24 and had a year to marinate.

If Hainsey is playing Center next year, I have to believe it’s for a different QB.

No way Brady is returning to play behind a completely unproven, project Center.

That would make the rest of this exercise moot because we go from a 13 win SB contender to a 7 win 3rd prize is you’re fired with an average replacement-level QB.

And great post Cheb. But both Godwin and CD3 are surely 18+ M annual contracts. I can’t imagine the ACL will chase off all suitors from Godwin.

My guess is the best chance of retaining Brady is losing only CD3, Cappa, Suh, JPP.

If Giselle doesn’t register her veto power, Gronk doesn’t retire, and only those 4 are gone…then we have a chance Brady returns.

But let’s be real. This roster isn’t going to be close to as good as the SB winning roster, and that is assuming both Wirfs and. Godwin come back 100 %.

I feel like we may need some kind of shake-up/infusion of juice to lure him back for one more year (assuming he even has a vote).

The Chiefs put a rookie late 2nd round pick (Creed Humphrey) as their starting Center for Patrick Mahomes, yet there is "No Way" Brady would play with a 2nd year guy he's practiced the previous year with? Haisey wasn't some UDFA, he was a 3rd round pick from an established program like Notre Dame. Just b/c you haven't seen him play yet doesn't mean he can't.

The roster in 2022 can be as good as we want to be. It's just a matter of how much we want to manipulate future seasons to fit contracts in now.

Fans need to get over this 'cap space' mentality as if it's some fixed amount. Did last offseason not teach us anything?

[Nobody]

If Hainsey is playing Center next year, I have to believe it’s for a different QB.

No way Brady is returning to play behind a completely unproven, project Center.

That would make the rest of this exercise moot because we go from a 13 win SB contender to a 7 win 3rd prize is you’re fired with an average replacement-level QB.

And great post Cheb. But both Godwin and CD3 are surely 18+ M annual contracts. I can’t imagine the ACL will chase off all suitors from Godwin.

My guess is the best chance of retaining Brady is losing only CD3, Cappa, Suh, JPP.

If Giselle doesn’t register her veto power, Gronk doesn’t retire, and only those 4 are gone…then we have a chance Brady returns.

But let’s be real. This roster isn’t going to be close to as good as the SB winning roster, and that is assuming both Wirfs and. Godwin come back 100 %.

I feel like we may need some kind of shake-up/infusion of juice to lure him back for one more year (assuming he even has a vote).

The Chiefs put a rookie late 2nd round pick (Creed Humphrey) as their starting Center for Patrick Mahomes, yet there is "No Way" Brady would play with a 2nd year guy he's practiced the previous year with? Haisey wasn't some UDFA, he was a 3rd round pick from an established program like Notre Dame. Just b/c you haven't seen him play yet doesn't mean he can't.

The roster in 2022 can be as good as we want to be. It's just a matter of how much we want to manipulate future seasons to fit contracts in now.

Fans need to get over this 'cap space' mentality as if it's some fixed amount. Did last offseason not teach us anything?

I scouted the hell out of Creed Humphrey a few years ago. His college snaps in that year were the best/most consistent Center snaps I'd ever seen on tape. The difference between rookie Humphrey as starting Center vs a project player who doesn't have the experience nor has shown the traits under the durress that the crucible of high-level play distills isn't really a comparison.

Hainesy may develop into a solid player. I don't know. But the cognitive space any QB would be in (let alone a Brady) lining up behind a 1st year incredible prospect like Humphrey and a project like Hainsey is just not even comparable. I'm struggling to think of an analogy that is fitting yet isn't a massive underplay.

You disagree with that? Your position here is that the perceptual daylight (before any professional snaps are even put out there) between a Humphrey vs a Hainesy is x (for whatever value you want to assign to x) negligible so as to not be consequential in the mental calculus of the QB doing the playing (or, in this case, re-upping for a Super Bowl run)?

[Dread]

The Chiefs put a rookie late 2nd round pick (Creed Humphrey) as their starting Center for Patrick Mahomes, yet there is "No Way" Brady would play with a 2nd year guy he's practiced the previous year with? Haisey wasn't some UDFA, he was a 3rd round pick from an established program like Notre Dame. Just b/c you haven't seen him play yet doesn't mean he can't.

The roster in 2022 can be as good as we want to be. It's just a matter of how much we want to manipulate future seasons to fit contracts in now.

Fans need to get over this 'cap space' mentality as if it's some fixed amount. Did last offseason not teach us anything?

I scouted the hell out of Creed Humphrey a few years ago. His college snaps in that year were the best/most consistent Center snaps I'd ever seen on tape. The difference between rookie Humphrey as starting Center vs a project player who doesn't have the experience nor has shown the traits under the durress that the crucible of high-level play distills isn't really a comparison.

Hainesy may develop into a solid player. I don't know. But the cognitive space any QB would be in (let alone a Brady) lining up behind a 1st year incredible prospect like Humphrey and a project like Hainsey is just not even comparable. I'm struggling to think of an analogy that is fitting yet isn't a massive underplay.

You disagree with that? Your position here is that the perceptual daylight (before any professional snaps are even put out there) between a Humphrey vs a Hainesy is x (for whatever value you want to assign to x) negligible so as to not be consequential in the mental calculus of the QB doing the playing (or, in this case, re-upping for a Super Bowl run)?

My position is that I disagree with your absolute viewpoint that Brady wouldn't play if Hainsey was the starting Center. There are so many things you're assuming that you have absolutely no insight into. Two of the biggest being what Licht or Brady think of Hainsey as a player.

How about Josh Myers? Was/Is he an "incredible" prospect also? Neither he or Humphry were the first Center drafted last year, yet both started as rookies for two of the best QBs of this era. How "proven" were either of them prior to week 1 last season and why do you feel Hainsey can be at that level when he'll have an offseason, full regular season, and 2nd offseason developing at the position?

Your argument was "No way Brady is returning to play behind a completely unproven, project Center.". The latter part of that statement is a strawman b/c you don't know what he has and hasn't proved to the people who make personnel decisions for the Bucs roster.

[Doctor]

Yeah, I really doubt "who's the center" has that much weight in Brady's decision to return, let alone be the deciding factor.

[Nobody]

I scouted the hell out of Creed Humphrey a few years ago. His college snaps in that year were the best/most consistent Center snaps I'd ever seen on tape. The difference between rookie Humphrey as starting Center vs a project player who doesn't have the experience nor has shown the traits under the durress that the crucible of high-level play distills isn't really a comparison.

Hainesy may develop into a solid player. I don't know. But the cognitive space any QB would be in (let alone a Brady) lining up behind a 1st year incredible prospect like Humphrey and a project like Hainsey is just not even comparable. I'm struggling to think of an analogy that is fitting yet isn't a massive underplay.

You disagree with that? Your position here is that the perceptual daylight (before any professional snaps are even put out there) between a Humphrey vs a Hainesy is x (for whatever value you want to assign to x) negligible so as to not be consequential in the mental calculus of the QB doing the playing (or, in this case, re-upping for a Super Bowl run)?

My position is that I disagree with your absolute viewpoint that Brady wouldn't play if Hainsey was the starting Center. There are so many things you're assuming that you have absolutely no insight into. Two of the biggest being what Licht or Brady think of Hainsey as a player.

How about Josh Myers? Was/Is he an "incredible" prospect also? Neither he or Humphry were the first Center drafted last year, yet both started as rookies for two of the best QBs of this era. How "proven" were either of them prior to week 1 last season and why do you feel Hainsey can be at that level when he'll have an offseason, full regular season, and 2nd offseason developing at the position?

Your argument was "No way Brady is returning to play behind a completely unproven, project Center.". The latter part of that statement is a strawman b/c you don't know what he has and hasn't proved to the people who make personnel decisions for the Bucs roster.

Going to start at the bottom:

* I don't understand how you're seeing a "Strawman" fallacy here. I'm not refuting anyone's argument and I'm definitely not omitting aspects of the person's argument (who I'm not refuting) nor am I smuggling in an alternative argument that they didn't make in order to refute that. So...I have no clue what you're talking about here.

I'm merely building a case with multiple lines of evidence and drawing the best inference I can draw. That isn't a "Strawman" (and man, can we not do the BUT RHETORICAL FALLACY thing?).

* I already made my case for Creed Humphrey. I did a giant write-up of my review 2 years ago. Its on PR and BucZone if you're interested. But he was not only not a career RT without iOL traits trying to transfer to Center, he was an incredible physical and cerebral technician who dominated in Pass Pro, Outside Zone, Inside Zone, and in space (which that offense featured a ton of it). To what should be no surprise to anyone...he dominated in all of those areas in year 1 in the NFL. Creed Humphrey being an incredible rookie (a top Center) wasn't hard to see given his NCAA tape. Guy was a football player snap-in, snap-out. Everything he did translated directly to the NFL 1:1.

As far as Myers goes, again, I didn't review the film and metrics of anyone this draft. Its the first time I didn't do it in a long while. So I can't comment on Josh Myers tape. However, what I can comment on is the following regarding Myers is that he's a multi-year starter at Center for one of the premiere iOL factories in college and a huge program (Ohio State) and he looks the part. No clue if he'll be a successful pro longterm...but what he is not, is a "lets move this RT that doesn't have a suite of standout iOL physical traits to Center."

* Lets contrast those two with Hainsey:

- RT from Michigan. 3 year starter w/ 100 % of his reps as a RT. Zero reps inside; none at Guard, none at Center. I know people love their "lets move this guy from OT to iOL" projects in the last few decades. It is definitely a thing. What people don't like to talk about is there is a not-insignificant failure rate attached to that. And the guys that succeed have a lot of transferrable traits. Regardless...they are definitionally "projects" and they typically don't do much year 1 or year 2. Cappa moved to Guard after a redshirt year 1. His year 2 Guard play was passable with some serious pass protection scares (if Hainsey could even ascend to Cappa-level of play, which year 2 Cappa was well below Jensen 2020, that would be a hell of an accomplishment and a huge surprise). He suddenly ascended after some serious body and technique transformation at an offseason iOL academy and was very, very solid year 3 until the injury. Year 4 was a shaky start after coming back from injury and then he his stride maybe 1/3 of the way through the year. Guard is a different position than Center as well.

- I looked at our draft class only after we drafted them (as, again, I didn't scout anyone going into this year for the first time in a long time). You don't see the quintessential transferrable traits to an inside player. He's 6'4" with a lot of legs and extremely thin-framed lower half. He's not thick nor low "center-of-gravitied" in his frame nor in his movements on the field (in space in particular). He is going to have to WORK to anchor in Quick Sets against NTs in this league and we have no evidence on tape (because that isn't what he did) that he is capable of making that body and technique transition in the NFL. Maybe he can. I don't know. But its going to be work ("project"). His overall suite of physical traits are terrible for a Guard/Center. He isn't change-of-direction quick nor explosively strong anywhere. You can see it on tape and the metrics bear it out; 93rd % in bench, 74th % in 3-Cone, 70th % in shuttle.

What I saw was a "snatch/trap tackle with reasonable 45/vert set footwork"; Really advanced with his hands and could integrate that with solid enough footwork. I didn't see the collection of traits that would lead me to believe this guy is going to be a great inside player. NOW...that incredible handwork and his ability to reliably find shoulder pads COULD be the unlocking feature for a solid career as a Center. We've seen guys with incredible hands make up for a huge number of deficiencies. But they_are_rare (and they typically don't possess the sort of frame issues/lack of explosion and CoD issues that Hainesy has). So I don't feel comfortable/confident just saying that Hainsey's ability with his hands will be able to sufficiently resolve the other areas (until it actually happens consistently against live rounds in the NFL).

Again, he's a "project." "Projects" like this are multi-year efforts to develop to even reach par if they're going to get up to par at all. Simply put, it_would_be_utterly_shocking if the step back from year 2 Hainsey from Jensen wasn't huge.

So I can't speak for Brady or Licht or Goodwin or anyone else. I'm just putting together pieces of a puzzle, arranging them the best I can, and drawing a (what I think is a very reasonable) inference from the aggregate of those lines of evidence:

An old-ass QB in likely his final year probably isn't particularly interested in establishing trust and a new relationship (both working and actual work chemistry) with a "career RT to Center project player" who has no work downrange of 350 pound NTs displacing him into the lap of his QB and has virtually zero chance of rising to even close to the player that 2019-20 Jensen was in this short span that they'll be working together.

If you feel like that is an unsupportable inference, then that's fine. I could very well be wrong. But until someone says something convincing to move me off of it, I'm sticking with it. I suspect Jensen not being resigned and the replacement plan being Hainsey would have a huge, probably defining, impact on Brady's calculus to stay on or retire (again...that is if Brady even has a vote...this may be Giselle Veto).

[Monero]

Overall I think it's time to admit that the 2021 draft class was basically a punt by Licht. We got next to zero value out of our draft during our repeat campaign, and quite frankly that showed throughout the entire season. Contrast that to 2020 where we don't win the Super Bowl or even make it without contributions by our 2020 draft class. Joe Tryon is at best a "meh" pick and was likely a mid 2nd round pick we took in the 1st. He couldn't even beat out JPP who was playing with one arm most of the season. The Trask pick was ill advised on multiple fronts, from his low ceiling to him being a dead pick for 2021 where we're trying to repeat. Hainsey is a project interior lineman that is most likely a career backup interior lineman, which is again a head scratching pick considering what the 2021 Bucs were trying to achieve. Britt is a special teamer, nothing more. Darden is painful to watch in the PR game. The Bucs felt the effects of a non-factor draft class in 2021 and that will continue to reverberate into 2022. Hopefully Licht gets back to having great drafts and makes up for the short term effects a bad 2021 draft with key FA acquisitions.

[Nobody]

Overall I think it's time to admit that the 2021 draft class was basically a punt by Licht. We got next to zero value out of our draft during our repeat campaign, and quite frankly that showed throughout the entire season. Contrast that to 2020 where we don't win the Super Bowl or even make it without contributions by our 2020 draft class. Joe Tryon is at best a "meh" pick and was likely a mid 2nd round pick we took in the 1st. He couldn't even beat out JPP who was playing with one arm most of the season. The Trask pick was ill advised on multiple fronts, from his low ceiling to him being a dead pick for 2021 where we're trying to repeat. Hainsey is a project interior lineman that is most likely a career backup interior lineman, which is again a head scratching pick considering what the 2021 Bucs were trying to achieve. Britt is a special teamer, nothing more. Darden is painful to watch in the PR game. The Bucs felt the effects of a non-factor draft class in 2021 and that will continue to reverberate into 2022. Hopefully Licht gets back to having great drafts and makes up for the short term effects a bad 2021 draft with key FA acquisitions.

Contrast with KC's incredible 2021 draft (who was right in lockstep with us in terms of draft asset value):

* Creed Humphrey - A+

Probably the best Center in the NFL...as a Rookie. At late 2nd value, that is unreal.

* Trey Smith - A+

6th round pick plays 1335 very effective snaps as a starting OG? Crazy good.

* Orlando Brown trade - A-

1268 fantastic snaps at OT.

Those 3 acquisitions basically remade their OL which is a huge reason why they are where they are.

* Noah Grey - A-

5th round TE who gets 321 scrimmage snaps year one and was a very effective part of their 12 personnel when they went heavy and their 13 personnel packages? And was a standout Special Teams player (as you have to be in the 5th and beyond) for the DVOA # 3 Special Teams in the NFL?

* Nick Bolton - B

Late 2nd round pick played every game, almost 700 snaps, and was solid in every phase (barely missed a tackle...one of the best tackle % for off-ball LB in the NFL).

+++++++++++

They added 5 players that made significantly consequential contributions year 1 (including the Orlando Brown trade via draft assets...lot of assets but big time RoI year 1).

[Monero]

Overall I think it's time to admit that the 2021 draft class was basically a punt by Licht. We got next to zero value out of our draft during our repeat campaign, and quite frankly that showed throughout the entire season. Contrast that to 2020 where we don't win the Super Bowl or even make it without contributions by our 2020 draft class. Joe Tryon is at best a "meh" pick and was likely a mid 2nd round pick we took in the 1st. He couldn't even beat out JPP who was playing with one arm most of the season. The Trask pick was ill advised on multiple fronts, from his low ceiling to him being a dead pick for 2021 where we're trying to repeat. Hainsey is a project interior lineman that is most likely a career backup interior lineman, which is again a head scratching pick considering what the 2021 Bucs were trying to achieve. Britt is a special teamer, nothing more. Darden is painful to watch in the PR game. The Bucs felt the effects of a non-factor draft class in 2021 and that will continue to reverberate into 2022. Hopefully Licht gets back to having great drafts and makes up for the short term effects a bad 2021 draft with key FA acquisitions.

Contrast with KC's incredible 2021 draft (who was right in lockstep with us in terms of draft asset value):

* Creed Humphrey - A+

Probably the best Center in the NFL...as a Rookie. At late 2nd value, that is unreal.

* Trey Smith - A+

6th round pick plays 1335 very effective snaps as a starting OG? Crazy good.

* Orlando Brown trade - A-

1268 fantastic snaps at OT.

Those 3 acquisitions basically remade their OL which is a huge reason why they are where they are.

* Noah Grey - A-

5th round TE who gets 321 scrimmage snaps year one and was a very effective part of their 12 personnel when they went heavy and their 13 personnel packages? And was a standout Special Teams player (as you have to be in the 5th and beyond) for the DVOA # 3 Special Teams in the NFL?

* Nick Bolton - B

Late 2nd round pick played every game, almost 700 snaps, and was solid in every phase (barely missed a tackle...one of the best tackle % for off-ball LB in the NFL).

+++++++++++

They added 5 players that made significantly consequential contributions year 1 (including the Orlando Brown trade via draft assets...lot of assets but big time RoI year 1).

Yeap, and the Rams added Stafford, Miller, and OBJ. It's no surprise that the teams who went for it and made a concerted effort to get better in every way possible are now likely going to represent the NFC and AFC in the Super Bowl. That was us last year, and it's a shame we went away from that mentality in 2021 and chose to become content with the status quo instead.

[BJJ34]

Contrast with KC's incredible 2021 draft (who was right in lockstep with us in terms of draft asset value):

* Creed Humphrey - A+

Probably the best Center in the NFL...as a Rookie. At late 2nd value, that is unreal.

* Trey Smith - A+

6th round pick plays 1335 very effective snaps as a starting OG? Crazy good.

* Orlando Brown trade - A-

1268 fantastic snaps at OT.

Those 3 acquisitions basically remade their OL which is a huge reason why they are where they are.

* Noah Grey - A-

5th round TE who gets 321 scrimmage snaps year one and was a very effective part of their 12 personnel when they went heavy and their 13 personnel packages? And was a standout Special Teams player (as you have to be in the 5th and beyond) for the DVOA # 3 Special Teams in the NFL?

* Nick Bolton - B

Late 2nd round pick played every game, almost 700 snaps, and was solid in every phase (barely missed a tackle...one of the best tackle % for off-ball LB in the NFL).

+++++++++++

They added 5 players that made significantly consequential contributions year 1 (including the Orlando Brown trade via draft assets...lot of assets but big time RoI year 1).

Yeap, and the Rams added Stafford, Miller, and OBJ. It's no surprise that the teams who went for it and made a concerted effort to get better in every way possible are now likely going to represent the NFC and AFC in the Super Bowl. That was us last year, and it's a shame we went away from that mentality in 2021 and chose to become content with the status quo instead.

“Content with the status quo?” We thought running it back with the same squad had the talent to get us back. And it almost did. We were a defensive breakdown from coming back and forcing OT proving the talent was there. We were missing our All Pro RT in the passing game against a team who dominates in the pass rush. Smith sucked in that game too.

I hate you fans. I seriously would never want to be a pro athlete because of the expectations and reactions of fans. Reading this board the past few days has been a literal shitfest of bad takes and overreactions.

Maybe we need a “what are you replacing the Bucs with in your personal life” thread because clearly some of you are more delusional than a literal type one Bipolar patient who suffers from delusions.

[Snake]

Running it back was always stupid. Childish mentality.

[Dread]

Was Alex Cappa a project? How did that work out? What about Marpet? Both were Offensive Tackles in college.

Yet Hainsey is doomed to be a career back-up? SMDH..

I look forward to re-visiting this thread in September.

[Dread]

Reading this board the past few days has been a literal shitfest of bad takes and overreactions.

Yup..