NFL MVP Predictions

[King Bootz]

The MVP race is coming to a close finish. There's no clear cut favorite but numerous contenders. The 2 guys that stand out the most might get penalized because they aren't QBs but as stated they standout more than every other QB. Let's breakdown the contenders.

*= League best

Tom Brady

422-632* 66.8% 37 TDs* 11 INTs 2 lost fumbles 4,580 yards* 7.2 ypa 100.2 QB rating

Case for: Brady continues to defy father time with elite QB play. Currently leading the league in attempts, completions, TD passes and yards. QB play has not been an issue here in Tampa. He could finish the year with 40 TDs & 5000+ yards which would be an amazing achievement for anyone. Let all a 44 year old QB.

Case against: As is the case with most Bruce Arians led offenses, turnovers are a bit of a problem. Brady has 13 total, which is above the average for QBs this season. Also it's hard to argue that Brady has had one of the best supporting casts in the league. Even when he's not his best, this team can out talent it's way to a win.

Cooper Kupp

132 rec* 177 tar*(74.7%) 1,734 yards* 13.1 ypr 14 TDs* 702 YAC*

Case for: Kupp has been by far and away the best WR in football. He catches 75% of the passes thrown his way. And he's thrown to more than anyone in the league. Furthermore he has no fumbles and more YAC yardage than most teams #2 WR. He's also leading in TD catches and has been a weapon unlike no other in the pass game. He can break tackles as well as anyone and really turns into a RB in the open field.

Case against: Inexplicably there's never been a WR to win league MVP. Kupp isn't exactly on a record setting pace either for WRs this year, even as great as his numbers are. There could also be an argument made that volume is the reason his numbers look the way they do.

Aaron Rodgers

323-475 68.0% 33 TDs 4 INT* 0 lost fumbles* 3,689 yards 7.8 ypa 110.8 QB Rating*

Case for: Rodgers having another Rodgers season. Highly efficient, productive, mistake free QB play. QB low 4 total turnovers this year to go with 33 TDs. He's also leading in QB rating.

Case Against: The media picks the winner here. They won't like the taste of "I'm immunized" gate very much. They are human and very vengeful. Also during GBs games, Rodgers has a tendency to take his foot off the pedal and the games become closer than they should.

Matthew Stafford

357-534 66.9% 36 TDs 13 INTs 1 fumble lost
4,339 yards 8.1 ypa 104.0 QB rating

Case For: Stafford might be #5 in these rankings but he's had a great year. 2nd in TD passes and QB rating and yards. Going to LA has really re-energized his career. But.....

Case Against: ...Detroit Stafford is still in there and comes out at the worst times. There are stretches where he makes McVay look foolish for trading so much for him. Some of the INTs he throws are mind boggling. Oh and he throws a lot. 2nd most in the league. He also has an amazing supporting cast and a true QB guru.


Johnathan Taylor

297 att* 1,626 yards* 5.5 ypc* 17 TDs* 36 rec 336 yards 2 TDs

Case For: As he goes, so does his team go. When he rushes for 100+ the Colts are 9-0. When he doesn't, 0-6. Maybe it's because of Derrick Henry's injury, but he's outpacing the pack in every category in rushing. Most impressive is he's averaging more yards per carry than any RB with 150 carries or more at 5.5. It would take some work but he has an outside chance at 2000k yards. More realistically he could finish with 20 TDs which is a great achieved for a RB.

Case Against: He's not a QB. Also the Colts might not make the playoffs all together, although it's looking likely that they will. If Taylor doesn't win it won't have anything to do with his production on the field.

[Snake]

Rodgers just doesn’t turn the ball over. Amazing.

[Xandtar]

I voted other because I don't think Tim Brady has any chance whatsoever.

[BJJ34]

Tim Brady is Tom’s high school Chemistry teaching alter ego.

[Snake]

This looks like it’s coming down to the wire. These last couple games are going to decide it. If Kupp can get over 2k yards, that’s crazy. If Taylor gets 20 rushing TDs, crazy.

[Redrum]

At this point I'd go with Taylor. He has really carried that offense.

[King Bootz]

Tim Brady is Tom’s high school Chemistry teaching alter ego.

Well we did meet Jerome Whitehead yesterday. He's Jordan's High School History teacher.

[King Bootz]

Rodgers just doesn’t turn the ball over. Amazing.

One of the most amazing things in all of sports that's not discussed enough. He has 445 career TD passes and has not yet reached 100 INTs.

[Kress]

I almost feel like the media would give it to Brady for no other reason than to poke Rodgers in the eye. They could also justify it pretty easily if Brady goes out and lights up teams the next couple of weeks with backups all over the offense - which he should.

But in reality, it should be either Taylor or Rodgers.

[BLT]

Rodgers just doesn’t turn the ball over. Amazing.

One of the most amazing things in all of sports that's not discussed enough. He has 445 career TD passes and has not yet reached 100 INTs.

Wow

[ATrain]

I just don't think the voters can unsee Brady looking like a rookie QB on SNF while getting shut out at home.

[King Bootz]

1 more thing on Rodgers. He has 4 picks. 2 came week 1 against New Orleans. So since week 2 he's thrown 2 INTs and the Packers won both games.

[BJJ34]

I honestly think the Cowboys wouldn’t be the same without Micah Parsons, so a ROTY/MVP could be a reality.

TJ Watt should garner some attention too. Imagine the Steelers without his 17 sacks. He missed two games as well.

[Pirate Life]

Brady has the second New Orleans game, Rodgers has the first New Orleans game, the 'immunized' kerfluffle and the off season drama. IMO, both might have lost enough votes to see someone else get MVP.

[IronDog]

There's an inherent problem with subjective voting.

[Nobody]

The extended case for both QB:

BRADY

has been the #1 DVOA and DYAR and YAR and PFF graded QB for the bulk of the season. He's also led the #1 DVOA Offense for all year (and its not by a little...its by a lot with GB being #2; 25.1 % to 20.6 %. In the last weeks, however, Rodgers overtaken DVOA (the difference between DVOA is its "total value per play" and DYAR is "total value through line/whole total value." He's suffered a ton of Drops ( #1 in the league) and many of them have been clearly game-changing (dropped TDs, dropped 1st downs, dropped plays to extend drives on 3rd down). His Adjusted Completion % from Completion % is the highest differential in the league despite having the most Pass Attempts. For 2/3 of the year he was top 7 Average Depth of Target while being # 2 in Time to Throw (meaning he's getting the ball out faster than almost anyone despite a downfield passing game) and # 1 in Sack % because of it. He's the # 2 QB in Turnover-Worthy-Play % while # 8 in Big Time Throw %. 3 * 4th Q/OT Comebacks and 3 Game Winning Drives.

RODGERS

Rodgers has been the best DVOA QB for the last 1/3 of the year. He's leading the # 2 DVOA offense in the league. # 3 QB in Turnover-Worthy-Play % while # 2 in Big Time Throw %. 1 * 4th Q/OT Comeback and 2 Game Winning Drives. Missed a game and while this is both for and against, but that game he missed? They scored 7 points and lost and the QB play was horrific and clearly causal for their loss.


++++++++++++++++++

I think it comes down to the final few games here. Brady's total body of work has been the best in the league, but Rodger's trajectory over the last 1/3 of the season will have been trending upward beyond Brady's play; recency bias + when you're playing your best matters. Rodger's has been the best QB in the league for the best team in the league over the last 1/3 of the season. He's also playing through a broken toe and that should matter to voters.

If Rodgers doesn't suddenly have a poor game and they're threatened by the crap Vikings and Detroit Pass Defense (18 and 26 DVOA vs Pass respectively), he'll take home the hardware.

If he plays meh and coughs up a loss in one of these two games (not happening), it'll be Brady.

[CannonFire]

It's comical how anyone could make an argument or even contemplate the idea that it's not Rodgers. Yeah, a few weeks ago, it was Brady or Rodgers... but once we lost that Saints game, it's only Rodgers. He plays the most important position, he has elite stats (across the board), he's on the best team, and he's going to get home field.

I'm guessing that the most anti-Rodgers scenario would be...
Rodgers with 35 votes
Brady with 12 votes
Stafford with 2 votes
and 1 idiot will vote for Taylor

[King Bootz]

The extended case for both QB:

BRADY

has been the #1 DVOA and DYAR and YAR and PFF graded QB for the bulk of the season. He's also led the #1 DVOA Offense for all year (and its not by a little...its by a lot with GB being #2; 25.1 % to 20.6 %. In the last weeks, however, Rodgers overtaken DVOA (the difference between DVOA is its "total value per play" and DYAR is "total value through line/whole total value." He's suffered a ton of Drops ( #1 in the league) and many of them have been clearly game-changing (dropped TDs, dropped 1st downs, dropped plays to extend drives on 3rd down). His Adjusted Completion % from Completion % is the highest differential in the league despite having the most Pass Attempts. For 2/3 of the year he was top 7 Average Depth of Target while being # 2 in Time to Throw (meaning he's getting the ball out faster than almost anyone despite a downfield passing game) and # 1 in Sack % because of it. He's the # 2 QB in Turnover-Worthy-Play % while # 8 in Big Time Throw %. 3 * 4th Q/OT Comebacks and 3 Game Winning Drives.

RODGERS

Rodgers has been the best DVOA QB for the last 1/3 of the year. He's leading the # 2 DVOA offense in the league. # 3 QB in Turnover-Worthy-Play % while # 2 in Big Time Throw %. 1 * 4th Q/OT Comeback and 2 Game Winning Drives. Missed a game and while this is both for and against, but that game he missed? They scored 7 points and lost and the QB play was horrific and clearly causal for their loss.


++++++++++++++++++

I think it comes down to the final few games here. Brady's total body of work has been the best in the league, but Rodger's trajectory over the last 1/3 of the season will have been trending upward beyond Brady's play; recency bias + when you're playing your best matters. Rodger's has been the best QB in the league for the best team in the league over the last 1/3 of the season. He's also playing through a broken toe and that should matter to voters.

If Rodgers doesn't suddenly have a poor game and they're threatened by the crap Vikings and Detroit Pass Defense (18 and 26 DVOA vs Pass respectively), he'll take home the hardware.

If he plays meh and coughs up a loss in one of these two games (not happening), it'll be Brady.

All of that is a case for Best QB/Offensive POTY.

It doesn't exactly capture what makes 1 player more valuable to his team than any other player in the league. Most valuable =/= Best.

[Digital_Damage]

Right now it is
1) Rodgers
2) Taylor (2,000 yards..., Third in Receiving for the colts.)
3) Brady
4) Stafford (was robbed on the pro bowl, Kyler fucking Murray?)
5) Kupp

Why is Lamar Jackson not on the list? I thought he was the supper leet MVP mister....

[BLT]

Kupp over Stafford.

[Nobody]

The extended case for both QB:

BRADY

has been the #1 DVOA and DYAR and YAR and PFF graded QB for the bulk of the season. He's also led the #1 DVOA Offense for all year (and its not by a little...its by a lot with GB being #2; 25.1 % to 20.6 %. In the last weeks, however, Rodgers overtaken DVOA (the difference between DVOA is its "total value per play" and DYAR is "total value through line/whole total value." He's suffered a ton of Drops ( #1 in the league) and many of them have been clearly game-changing (dropped TDs, dropped 1st downs, dropped plays to extend drives on 3rd down). His Adjusted Completion % from Completion % is the highest differential in the league despite having the most Pass Attempts. For 2/3 of the year he was top 7 Average Depth of Target while being # 2 in Time to Throw (meaning he's getting the ball out faster than almost anyone despite a downfield passing game) and # 1 in Sack % because of it. He's the # 2 QB in Turnover-Worthy-Play % while # 8 in Big Time Throw %. 3 * 4th Q/OT Comebacks and 3 Game Winning Drives.

RODGERS

Rodgers has been the best DVOA QB for the last 1/3 of the year. He's leading the # 2 DVOA offense in the league. # 3 QB in Turnover-Worthy-Play % while # 2 in Big Time Throw %. 1 * 4th Q/OT Comeback and 2 Game Winning Drives. Missed a game and while this is both for and against, but that game he missed? They scored 7 points and lost and the QB play was horrific and clearly causal for their loss.


++++++++++++++++++

I think it comes down to the final few games here. Brady's total body of work has been the best in the league, but Rodger's trajectory over the last 1/3 of the season will have been trending upward beyond Brady's play; recency bias + when you're playing your best matters. Rodger's has been the best QB in the league for the best team in the league over the last 1/3 of the season. He's also playing through a broken toe and that should matter to voters.

If Rodgers doesn't suddenly have a poor game and they're threatened by the crap Vikings and Detroit Pass Defense (18 and 26 DVOA vs Pass respectively), he'll take home the hardware.

If he plays meh and coughs up a loss in one of these two games (not happening), it'll be Brady.

All of that is a case for Best QB/Offensive POTY.

It doesn't exactly capture what makes 1 player more valuable to his team than any other player in the league. Most valuable =/= Best.

I know you've been banging the drum for Taylor and I get it.

But the reality is:

* The last non-QB to win MVP was Peterson's stupid 2012. The time before that? 2006 and Tomlinson's dumb year. Henry's ridiculous year didn't even net a 1st place vote.

* No non QB has won since they instituted all of the 2013 and on changes to amplify the Passing Game. This is a QB league now and it was one even before that.


The only way I see a RB winning MVP anymore is if they have a McCaffrey/Faulk like year with 1k + yards from scrimmage each rushing and receiving + like 2500 combined + efficient touches + 20 TDs AND QBs have a down year. The odds that we see all QBs have a down year AND a RB pull of those numbers is remote.

If Taylor somehow break the present NFL mold this year then great. But I'm skeptical of the voting turning out that way until it happens.

[Sdbucs]

Doubt Rodgers gets it after the covid drama

Henry would have won it if he had remained healthy

[King Bootz]

All of that is a case for Best QB/Offensive POTY.

It doesn't exactly capture what makes 1 player more valuable to his team than any other player in the league. Most valuable =/= Best.

I know you've been banging the drum for Taylor and I get it.

But the reality is:

* The last non-QB to win MVP was Peterson's stupid 2012. The time before that? 2006 and Tomlinson's dumb year. Henry's ridiculous year didn't even net a 1st place vote.

* No non QB has won since they instituted all of the 2013 and on changes to amplify the Passing Game. This is a QB league now and it was one even before that.


The only way I see a RB winning MVP anymore is if they have a McCaffrey/Faulk like year with 1k + yards from scrimmage each rushing and receiving + like 2500 combined + efficient touches + 20 TDs AND QBs have a down year. The odds that we see all QBs have a down year AND a RB pull of those numbers is remote.

If Taylor somehow break the present NFL mold this year then great. But I'm skeptical of the voting turning out that way until it happens.

So you’re looking at this from the perspective that it is a QB award. Got it.

[Nobody]

I know you've been banging the drum for Taylor and I get it.

But the reality is:

* The last non-QB to win MVP was Peterson's stupid 2012. The time before that? 2006 and Tomlinson's dumb year. Henry's ridiculous year didn't even net a 1st place vote.

* No non QB has won since they instituted all of the 2013 and on changes to amplify the Passing Game. This is a QB league now and it was one even before that.


The only way I see a RB winning MVP anymore is if they have a McCaffrey/Faulk like year with 1k + yards from scrimmage each rushing and receiving + like 2500 combined + efficient touches + 20 TDs AND QBs have a down year. The odds that we see all QBs have a down year AND a RB pull of those numbers is remote.

If Taylor somehow break the present NFL mold this year then great. But I'm skeptical of the voting turning out that way until it happens.

So you’re looking at this from the perspective that it is a QB award. Got it.

Yes.

I’m integrating reality into my thoughts and substantiating those thoughts based on multiple independent lines of evidence.

[13F11B]

I personally think the MVP is Brady's to lose. If he has two excellent games it is his.

[King Bootz]

So you’re looking at this from the perspective that it is a QB award. Got it.

Yes.

I’m integrating reality into my thoughts and substantiating those thoughts based on multiple independent lines of evidence.

I don't think you're taking into account actual circumstances. By your logic MVP can be award by not even watching a single snap. They simply wait until seasons end and then award it based off the stats sheet and analytics.

I'd give the committee a little more credit than that.

You mentioned Adrian Peterson's "crazy" 2012.
Let's take a look

348 att 2097 yards 6.0 ypc 12 TDs 40 rec 217 yards 1 TD 5.4 ypr.

So currently, after 15 games played, Taylor already has 119 receiving yards than Peterson had that year. Already has 6 more total TDs than Peterson has. Averages 5.89 yards per touch compared to 5.96 yards per touch for Peterson.

This isn't even me advocating for Taylor. But the only thing that made his year "insane" was the number of yards on the ground. Like Taylor though, Peterson carried that Vikings team to the playoffs and the voters took note of that.

And no, 2012 was not a down year for QBs either.

[Selmon Rules]

Personally, I would vote for Taylor but history shows us that it is almost always a QB that wins it....

It is what it is

[uscbucsfan]

Kapp could break the single season receiving yards and targets this year, but it's not him.

If Henry didn't get injured, he was even more dominant than Taylor and every time I read an article about Taylor, they mention that Henry is still only "x" amount of yards behind him despite being out...could hurt him.

I think by definition it's between Taylor and Rodgers. Brady has had more games where he was helped out by the D than those two, they are truly more important to their overall record, but it's not like we haven't had a lion share of games where Brady carried the whole team.

I could see Brady winning it as this Jay be his last season...Rodgers or Taylor would be my choice overall.

[Nobody]

Yes.

I’m integrating reality into my thoughts and substantiating those thoughts based on multiple independent lines of evidence.

I don't think you're taking into account actual circumstances. By your logic MVP can be award by not even watching a single snap. They simply wait until seasons end and then award it based off the stats sheet and analytics.

I'd give the committee a little more credit than that.

You mentioned Adrian Peterson's "crazy" 2012.
Let's take a look

348 att 2097 yards 6.0 ypc 12 TDs 40 rec 217 yards 1 TD 5.4 ypr.

So currently, after 15 games played, Taylor already has 119 receiving yards than Peterson had that year. Already has 6 more total TDs than Peterson has. Averages 5.89 yards per touch compared to 5.96 yards per touch for Peterson.

This isn't even me advocating for Taylor. But the only thing that made his year "insane" was the number of yards on the ground. Like Taylor though, Peterson carried that Vikings team to the playoffs and the voters took note of that.

And no, 2012 was not a down year for QBs either.

"My logic" isn't what you think it is apparently. I know a big part of your case is that they weren't good when they didn't run the football. You're chalking a single parameter (Taylor's carries) up as either outright causal or the overwhelming parameter here. Its certainly a parameter because he's the rare difference-maker at the RB position (of that there can be no doubt). However, what you're missing is:

* They played a murderer's row early in the year. Their 5 losses through Week 8 were all against would-be playoff teams (Seattle before Russ's injury, Rams * 1, Titans * 2, Ravens * 1).

* One of those losses was a fluke loss to the Ravens where they gave up 31 points. One game was when their defense crapped the bed. 2 games were 3 points or less (one of those they gave up 34). One of those losses was a one score game late where their defense utterly dominated and they scored absolutely nothing on offense because their QBing was awful.

* They were missing the best player on their team and/or he wasn't 100 % or games in that span (Quenton Nelson...he still isn't healthy).

* Weintz, though he played in Reich's offense prior is coming off of a mess of a year/situation in a trade and trying to get acclimated to Indy, their skill players, and trying to regain his confidence. Weintz was terrible at the beginning of the year. Yes, if you have bad QBing in the NFL...guess what? You're going to lose. Hell, mediocre QBing in the NFL doesn't get it done except in the most anomalous of situations. The population distribution of NFL games shows that running game + game manager is at the absolute tail of the distribution of success.

* Their defense has dominated in most of their wins.

* In their losses, Taylor has had the following Touches/Targets combined (25, 16, 11, 19, 20, 21). You can make a strong case for week 2 and 3 that he wasn't remotely involved enough. But 6 of those games he had 19-25 touches/targets combined. That isn't a small amount of involvement.

You've got a ton of noise (brutal opening schedule, injuries, new and rattled QB sucking while trying to rejuvenate his career, fluky and/or tight losses that are all over the map from offense scoring a ton to offense scoring nothing) and you're trying to distill signal of Taylor's contribution in wins as being outright causal or overwhelmingly causal for wins and his lack of involvement as outright causal or overwhelmingly causal for their losses.

Its just not true.

There reality is there is a ton of noise within the output of Indy's season. The Running Back position just can't overcome all of this noise despite a lot of touches. QB position? Yup, they can overcome a lot of things (and the elite ones do).

As far as the rest, is this a claim you're making here?

* The NFL MVP voting populace do not tilt profoundly heavily toward QBs as MVPs, accelerating particularly in the last 15 years?

If so, what is your evidence for this? The evidence against it is overwhelming.

* Neither of us have any insight into NFL MVP voting or All Pro voting. I don't know method. I would hope they would study a lot of tape and look at advanced metrics to get an idea of the through line of respective teams during a season (that have MVP candidates), have a robust understanding of Xs and Os, understand NFL trends, and be immune to peer contagion.

But I've got my doubts as to every_single_one_of_those given what I routinely see of analysts in the business. Guys that do games and guys in the studio are routinely underprepared and/or are clearly just parroting peer contagion that has made the rounds.

Finally, the 2012 season with AP's MVP didn't have a dearth of great QB play? Again, we are comparing this to the modern NFL (eg post 2013 and especially the last 5 years).

Lets look at the QBing from that 2012 season and contrast with the 2019 season:

* 1 QB with 40+ TDs vs 3 QBs (and this doesn't even include Rushing TDs which will inflate it more)

* 9 Passers had 4000+ yards (200 per) vs 12 QBs

* 5 QBs with 30+ TDs vs 10 QBs

* 2 QBs with 100 + Passer Rating vs 10 QBs (!)

* The median of INTs for the top 20 Passer Rating QBs was 12. The 2020 median for the top 20 Passer Rating QBs was 9

* The median of Completion % for the top 20 Passer Rating QBs was 63.1 % vs 67.2 % (!)

* The median QB Rating for the top 20 Passers was 86.2 vs 99.3 (!)


Its not a fair fight. 2012 QBing as a win share/contribution to net offense isn't even close. Their 2020 counterparts are just playing a different game every way you slice it. And even in 2012 the QB was by far the most important position in the NFL. In 2020? Its not even a conversation.

[Snake]

Brady has to finish crazy strong to pull away after some relative stinkers (stats wise). Like 8 TDs across the next two games IMO.

[13F11B]

I agree with @Nobody. As much as many might not like it the MVP goes to the most valuable player and based on the way the game is played now that would either be a QB, CB or DL. The latter two are important because of how much they impact the QB. The latter both suffer from the fact that superior play usually results in a lack of state. If you are a good DL you get double-teamed. If you are a good DB they do not throw at you. Despite affecting the game you are stat invisible.

[13F11B]

Brady has to finish crazy strong to pull away after some relative stinkers (stats wise). Like 8 TDs across the next two games IMO.

It all depends on what others do. If Rodgers goes out and loses to the Lions with three interceptions that would change things. I still think it is Brady's to lose right now though but I can see your point.

[King Bootz]

I agree with @Nobody. As much as many might not like it the MVP goes to the most valuable player and based on the way the game is played now that would either be a QB, CB or DL. The latter two are important because of how much they impact the QB. The latter both suffer from the fact that superior play usually results in a lack of state. If you are a good DL you get double-teamed. If you are a good DB they do not throw at you. Despite affecting the game you are stat invisible.

That's not even the point Nobody made. When is the last time a CB or DL won MVP? By his logic the name needs to be changed to "Top QB Award" and not most valuable player. Apparently everyone is too stupid to vote on the parameters of what "most valuable" means

[13F11B]

I agree with @Nobody. As much as many might not like it the MVP goes to the most valuable player and based on the way the game is played now that would either be a QB, CB or DL. The latter two are important because of how much they impact the QB. The latter both suffer from the fact that superior play usually results in a lack of state. If you are a good DL you get double-teamed. If you are a good DB they do not throw at you. Despite affecting the game you are stat invisible.

That's not even the point Nobody made. When is the last time a CB or DL won MVP? By his logic the name needs to be changed to "Top QB Award" and not most valuable player. Apparently everyone is too stupid to vote on the parameters of what "most valuable" means

Pocket lint you have to understand that when lots of people don't agree with you it does not mean they are stupid. It means you are.

[King Bootz]

That's not even the point Nobody made. When is the last time a CB or DL won MVP? By his logic the name needs to be changed to "Top QB Award" and not most valuable player. Apparently everyone is too stupid to vote on the parameters of what "most valuable" means

Pocket lint you have to understand that when lots of people don't agree with you it does not mean they are stupid. It means you are.

Oh I'm not talking about you or me, although shameless prove how dumb you are. I'm talking about the hypothetical MVP voters Nobody here is talking about. By his logic those people are too dumb to take into account what "MVP" really means.