The Falcons QB Controversy

[Buc2]

Is it possible they picked him with the idea of trading him to another team for more draft picks and that fell flat?

I doubt that because, if that were the case, they would have leaked that story in an effort to appease their pissed off fan base.

[Buc2]

Again, the only thing that will decide if this is a muck up or not is if Penix is a bust or not. Everything is so skewed towards QB that way it will render everything else moot if he ends up being a franchise guy for them.

Even if Penix does well when he eventually starts, that doesn't make their selection of him with the 8th overall pick the right move. Forget hindsight here.

[Grahamburn]

Them drafting Penix was the best thing that could have happened for us in the short term in terms of our chances to 4-peat as division champions. I'd be much more afraid of Dallas Turner or Rome Odunze or Brock Bowers on the field than I am Michael Penix on the bench. Long term? Hard to say. I'd bet on it not being the right play.

[Bootz]

I was not a fan of Penix as a prospect. I felt he was a 3rd round prospect at best. I wouldn't have taken him before then let alone #8 overall.

That said, I suppose I could see what the Falcons were thinking. There's 2 examples in the last 20 years of QBs being taken in the 1st round and sitting for multiple seasons, and they happen to be for the same team. Aaron Rodgers & Jordan Love both sat on the Packers bench for 3 seasons and essentially hit the ground running. Rodgers had a good season although the Packers didn't make the playoffs. Love had a better season and even won a playoff game.

Atlanta could be looking to build their QB pipeline. 2-3 years from now when Cousins is either declining or retires, there won't be a question as to who their QB I'd. Falcons might be playing the long game.

[CannonFire]

Again, the only thing that will decide if this is a muck up or not is if Penix is a bust or not. Everything is so skewed towards QB that way it will render everything else moot if he ends up being a franchise guy for them.

Even if Penix does well when he eventually starts, that doesn't make their selection of him with the 8th overall pick the right move. Forget hindsight here.

Is there a scenario where you'd say they made a good decision?

For example, many people think that the Falcons should've taken the best defensive player. What if that guy's a bust? You think the Falcons would've been right taking a bust over a QB who works out?

[Buc2]

Even if Penix does well when he eventually starts, that doesn't make their selection of him with the 8th overall pick the right move. Forget hindsight here.

Is there a scenario where you'd say they made a good decision?

For example, many people think that the Falcons should've taken the best defensive player. What if that guy's a bust? You think the Falcons would've been right taking a bust over a QB who works out?

In the here and now, without the ability of hindsight, yes...I believe this was a bad decision. Full stop. I'm not trying to quantify the what if's and hypotheticals. I'll leave that to you and others.

[Four Verticals]

The move by the Falcons can be justified. Most decisions can be.

Overall I thought it a ridiculously bad move.

It's inconceivable to me that when Cousins was signed to a contract guaranteeing him $100mil over the next few years that the plan was to use the 8th pick in the draft on a QB.

Ross Tucker on the Dan Patrick show was interviewed either Friday or Monday and had what I thought was a pretty good opinion on the situation. He was not kind to Morris and Fontenot

[CannonFire]

Is there a scenario where you'd say they made a good decision?

For example, many people think that the Falcons should've taken the best defensive player. What if that guy's a bust? You think the Falcons would've been right taking a bust over a QB who works out?

In the here and now, without the ability of hindsight, yes...I believe this was a bad decision. Full stop. I'm not trying to quantify the what if's and hypotheticals. I'll leave that to you and others.

But you said "Even if Penix does well when he eventually starts"... that's a hypothetical statement.

Foresight/hindsight, it's only a bad decision if it doesn't work out. Now, to the extent at which "it works out", can vary.

[CannonFire]

The move by the Falcons can be justified. Most decisions can be.

Overall I thought it a ridiculously bad move.

It's inconceivable to me that when Cousins was signed to a contract guaranteeing him $100mil over the next few years that the plan was to use the 8th pick in the draft on a QB.

Ross Tucker on the Dan Patrick show was interviewed either Friday or Monday and had what I thought was a pretty good opinion on the situation. He was not kind to Morris and Fontenot

This is faulty logic to me. This implies that it's a bad decision because the Falcons didn't fill a different need, regardless of the outcome. It's faulty because it reserves no positive outcome if the Falcons are right and doesn't take into account the possibility that the player they could've otherwise drafted, turns out to be a bust. If Penix becomes a franchise QB, they were right. Period. The QB position is the most important position to fill. If you have a franchise QB, you are a legitimate contender every year. I have no idea if they're right or not, but we're not going to know that until we see things play out. It very well might end up being a ridiculously bad move, it also might set them up for the next 15+ years of being a contender.

[Four Verticals]

The move by the Falcons can be justified. Most decisions can be.

Overall I thought it a ridiculously bad move.

It's inconceivable to me that when Cousins was signed to a contract guaranteeing him $100mil over the next few years that the plan was to use the 8th pick in the draft on a QB.

Ross Tucker on the Dan Patrick show was interviewed either Friday or Monday and had what I thought was a pretty good opinion on the situation. He was not kind to Morris and Fontenot

This is faulty logic to me. This implies that it's a bad decision because the Falcons didn't fill a different need, regardless of the outcome. It's faulty because it reserves no positive outcome if the Falcons are right and doesn't take into account the possibility that the player they could've otherwise drafted, turns out to be a bust. If Penix becomes a franchise QB, they were right. Period. The QB position is the most important position to fill. If you have a franchise QB, you are a legitimate contender every year. I have no idea if they're right or not, but we're not going to know that until we see things play out. It very well might end up being a ridiculously bad move, it also might set them up for the next 15+ years of being a contender.

At the moment it appears to be a ridiculously bad move by the Falcons. Is that plain enough for you?

[Brazen331]

I’m so glad Raheem is the coach dealing with this situation. You just know he’s going to muck this up. Remember how eager he was to put Freeman in? At the first opportunity he was holding up his outstretched palm; ‘Let’s put 5 in. It’s time for number 5. Let’s see what 5 can do.”

[Snake]

I’m so glad Raheem is the coach dealing with this situation. You just know he’s going to muck this up. Remember how eager he was to put Freeman in? At the first opportunity he was holding up his outstretched palm; ‘Let’s put 5 in. It’s time for number 5. Let’s see what 5 can do.”

Everyone is hoping for one of those NFL Films moments.

Most of the time, it’s just a bust.

[Big Irv]

There is a very narrow lane in which this is viewed as a success. It will only be viewed that way if The Falcons achieve deep playoff success with Penix starting or if he is a perennial all-pro.

If they do well this season or the next few seasons, but don’t make a NFCCG or SB appearance, people will point to this pick as a reason why they couldn’t get over the hump. Even a NFCCG appearance/win may be viewed as a failure. They (myself included) will look at all the difference makers picked after him as players Atlanta could have had on a rookie deal.

Even a SB win with Cousins could be viewed this way. Except that winning a SB has a way of wiping a slate clean for a GM’s bad decisions.

Nobody would question the 49ers trade for Steve Young. They traded a 2nd and 4th for him. Those picks could have helped extend their dynasty. Hardy Nickerson and Bo Jackson are 2 players the 49ers could have taken with that pick, but because they won a SB with Young starting at QB, it’s considered a success. But that’s not even close to what The Falcons gave up.

The Falcons repeatedly used GB as an example for their pick. GB didn’t give up nearly as much for Love. It’s also not a foregone conclusion that the Love pick was a success. As @BucsNBills said, that pick could have helped GB make it win a SuperBowl. Yet, they couldn’t get over the hump in those years. It also alienated Rogers; putting a sour end to his time there. Roger’s could come out these next few years and outperform Love. Love winning 1 wild card playoff game doesn’t make this a roaring success to be emulated around The NFL.

[Onthebrink]

The move by the Falcons can be justified. Most decisions can be.

Overall I thought it a ridiculously bad move.

It's inconceivable to me that when Cousins was signed to a contract guaranteeing him $100mil over the next few years that the plan was to use the 8th pick in the draft on a QB.

Ross Tucker on the Dan Patrick show was interviewed either Friday or Monday and had what I thought was a pretty good opinion on the situation. He was not kind to Morris and Fontenot

This is faulty logic to me. This implies that it's a bad decision because the Falcons didn't fill a different need, regardless of the outcome. It's faulty because it reserves no positive outcome if the Falcons are right and doesn't take into account the possibility that the player they could've otherwise drafted, turns out to be a bust. If Penix becomes a franchise QB, they were right. Period. The QB position is the most important position to fill. If you have a franchise QB, you are a legitimate contender every year. I have no idea if they're right or not, but we're not going to know that until we see things play out. It very well might end up being a ridiculously bad move, it also might set them up for the next 15+ years of being a contender.

Logic is not subjective. It is either faulty logic or it is not. Believing that only outcome matters is faulty logic. Saying that if Penix becomes a franchise QB then that means that the Falcons were right. Period. That is faulty logic. Finding a franchise QB is a good thing but finding that QB with a bad decision does not mean that the decision was good. This is a result oriented fallacy.

[Big Irv]

OK. I am done making fun of this pick.
In reality if Penix ends up being a hall of famer the Falcons will look like geniuses. If Penix ends up a long time starter for the Falcons, but never takes them to the Super Bowl the pick will be viewed as a waste. If Penix washes out of the league this pick will cost jobs. It is a high upside pick with the possibility of altering a GMs career.

I will never stop making fun of The Falcons. I will grasp at every straw which provides a laugh at their expense. I still get giddy every time the numbers “28” and “3” are used in the same sentence.

I’m laughing at them and The Panthers for their draft debacles.

[Doctor]

I see it very much the other way around.

There are three premises you have to assume are true to justify the outrage of this pick.

1) That whomever else you drafted would've been on the right side of 50/50
2) That they are what moves the SB needle
3) Kirk and co simply cannot win without them

Its pretty arrogantly presumptuous. The most likely scenario is that Kirk doesn't get any closer to a SB with the Falcons than he did with the Vikings.

In which case the only thing needed for this to be a great pick is Penix on the right side of 50/50. Because you can spend decades jumping from savior to savior who are on the wrong side.


Yes its the Love plan logic. Anyone who thinks "its different" because its pick 8 vs 26 is totally missing the forest for the trees.

[Buc2]

I see it very much the other way around.

There are three premises you have to assume are true to justify the outrage of this pick.

1) That whomever else you drafted would've been on the right side of 50/50
2) That they are what moves the SB needle
3) Kirk and co simply cannot win without them

Its pretty arrogantly presumptuous. The most likely scenario is that Kirk doesn't get any closer to a SB with the Falcons than he did with the Vikings.

In which case the only thing needed for this to be a great pick is Penix on the right side of 50/50. Because you can spend decades jumping from savior to savior who are on the wrong side.


Yes its the Love plan logic. Anyone who thinks "its different" because its pick 8 vs 26 is totally missing the forest for the trees.

You know what? Fuck the Falcons. Their picked sucked. 99% of the football world knows this. Justify it however you like. It won’t make it suck less.

[Doctor]

I hope you're right.

With that said I can easily see a timeline where Penix and co are a problem for us for years. And I don't get how people dismiss it.

[Snake]

it was obvious how things were gonna fall 1-4, in terms of players selected. maybe not order. Even months out.

Falcons should’ve just not signed Cousins and traded up a bit to acquire the 6 year college QB and started him year 1, week 1. Spent the Kirk $ elsewhere.

There’s no reason for a 6 year college player + 24 year old to sit. Especially with a good roster and a mediocre division.

[Buc2]

I hope you're right.

With that said I can easily see a timeline where Penix and co are a problem for us for years. And I don't get how people dismiss it.

Even if I’m wrong, it’s not going to matter for 2-3 years at best. By then, we’ll most likely be retooling again anyway. lol

[Doctor]

I wish some of you had this kind of hutzpah about our teams chances to go this distance for all the same reasons.

[Buc2]

I wish some of you had this kind of hutzpah about our teams chances to go this distance for all the same reasons.

I’m excited for our team’s chances.

[Grahamburn]

https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/8th-ov ... -nfl-draft

History of the 8th pick. Oof.

[Grahamburn]

I wish some of you had this kind of hutzpah about our teams chances to go this distance for all the same reasons.

We don’t pick high enough for this kind of outrage!

[Selmon Rules]

It was a bad pick at this time but it may work out for them in the long run. No way to know for now

[kaimaru]

The GM saying that if Penix may have to wait 4 or 5 years to start, then that is a good thing? It's a good thing to pick up a 5th year option without him playing a snap? (Has to be picked up in season 3 pre-season so no chance barring injury him playing a down.) The comments shows they know they are picking up the fifth round, play unseen. Thats smart? Remember the fifth year option has to be picked up in the pre-season of his third year. What if they pick it up and he's a bust in year three or four if he does start? They will play out the fifth with the mantra "he needs more time?" We know how that turns out. Let's say Cousin us balling all 4 years. Then what? There is no way this can be defended as a good pick. None. Their second round pick was also considered a pick a round too early. This is just not a good GM

[Snake]

GM has no choice but to say that. They just signed Cousins to a four-year deal. You can’t go out there and say you expect him not to fulfill his contract.

This is why the move pissed off Cousins. He’s a professional and he realizes there’s a chance he’s not gonna be on the team in three or four years. But to draft his successor so soon after signing him to the big deal…Really took some of the luster off of the signing.

[Doctor]

If Kirk and Falcons are balling the next four years, the hedge will easily be forgiven. Winning cures everything. You really going to fire a HC/GM duo that's 46-22 over 4 years because of what they did back in their first draft? No. Furthermore it would just further validates their belief that they will be picking in the low 20s over the next four years.

[kaimaru]

If Kirk and Falcons are balling the next four years, the hedge will easily be forgiven. Winning cures everything. You really going to fire a HC/GM duo that's 46-22 over 4 years because of what they did back in their first draft? No. Furthermore it would just further validates their belief that they will be picking in the low 20s over the next four years.

Look, i think many people like me thinks its a reach nc its Penix. McCarthy I wouldn't have hated as much. Penix had 3 day 1 to 2 WRs. We already know that WRs can make QBs look a lot better than they are. You know that's true. Having three WRs, that if one wasn't playing through an injury, would all be no worse than 2nd round picks in a draft known to be deep in WRs would give me hella pause. It's not just picking a QB but Penix specifically

[Doctor]

THAT I actually can get behind.

I don't agree, as I like Penix, but I can totally see why people don't. And, yes, if you don't like Penix can think this is a bust pick then it's all a bust. Period. It is just going to come down to the player.

But I don't care if Penix plays a mere 6 years for the Falcons or 16. It only takes one prime year where the pieces are in place to go all the way for them. And worse still, if he last a long time to make this division difficult for us.

If he's a bust, well then this is just great. And I obviously hope that's the case.

[CannonFire]

This is faulty logic to me. This implies that it's a bad decision because the Falcons didn't fill a different need, regardless of the outcome. It's faulty because it reserves no positive outcome if the Falcons are right and doesn't take into account the possibility that the player they could've otherwise drafted, turns out to be a bust. If Penix becomes a franchise QB, they were right. Period. The QB position is the most important position to fill. If you have a franchise QB, you are a legitimate contender every year. I have no idea if they're right or not, but we're not going to know that until we see things play out. It very well might end up being a ridiculously bad move, it also might set them up for the next 15+ years of being a contender.

Logic is not subjective. It is either faulty logic or it is not. Believing that only outcome matters is faulty logic. Saying that if Penix becomes a franchise QB then that means that the Falcons were right. Period. That is faulty logic. Finding a franchise QB is a good thing but finding that QB with a bad decision does not mean that the decision was good. This is a result oriented fallacy.

Disagree. Every GM, coach, and player, as well as a fan who knows anything about football, will tell you that having a franchise QB is the best path for success. History bares that out. If the Falcons are right about Penix, then they made the right pick. That's not faulty logic, that's logic.

Faulty logic is saying that they were wrong no matter what, which is what he was saying.

[Buc2]

THAT I actually can get behind.

I don't agree, as I like Penix, but I can totally see why people don't. And, yes, if you don't like Penix can think this is a bust pick then it's all a bust. Period. It is just going to come down to the player.

But I don't care if Penix plays a mere 6 years for the Falcons or 16. It only takes one prime year where the pieces are in place to go all the way for them. And worse still, if he last a long time to make this division difficult for us.

If he's a bust, well then this is just great. And I obviously hope that's the case.

I have nothing against Penix. This isn't about Penix. It's about the Foulcans picking a QB at #8 after just signing Cousins to a multi-million, multi-year contract when they could have parlayed that #8 into additional picks to help them win now. It was a dumb move on the Foulcans part and no amount of defending it is going to wash away that stink. Not for a few years, anyway.

[BuccaNOLEer]

THAT I actually can get behind.

I don't agree, as I like Penix, but I can totally see why people don't. And, yes, if you don't like Penix can think this is a bust pick then it's all a bust. Period. It is just going to come down to the player.

But I don't care if Penix plays a mere 6 years for the Falcons or 16. It only takes one prime year where the pieces are in place to go all the way for them. And worse still, if he last a long time to make this division difficult for us.

If he's a bust, well then this is just great. And I obviously hope that's the case.

I have nothing against Penix. This isn't about Penix. It's about the Foulcans picking a QB at #8 after just signing Cousins to a multi-million, multi-year contract when they could have parlayed that #8 into additional picks to help them win now. It was a dumb move on the Foulcans part and no amount of defending it is going to wash away that stink. Not for a few years, anyway.

Not to mention that they needed defensive help and with no defensive players off the board, they had the pick of the litter. And also, if you're gonna draft a QB and have him sit two years, draft someone 21 or younger. Penix is 24.

[Grahamburn]

Winning cures all, but if they're still mediocre and can't rush the passer or protect Cousins or need another offensive weapon there will be problems.

[Doctor]

I love how cool and breezy fans whose jobs and careers aren't on the line just calmly declare they'll find a QB after Kirk so getting one now is dumb.