Evaluating TE going into 2024-2025
Re: Evaluating TE going into 2024-2025
Also Bowers being maybe the most consistently high rated TE in NCAA history piques my interest as a trade up candidate
-
- Posts: 3556
- Joined: Mon Sep 06, 2021 8:50 pm
- Reputation: 1020
Re: Evaluating TE going into 2024-2025
Coen is likely to be a lot more 3 WR sets. Otton’s snaps should go down some if Durham is capable of filling in. Otton played 97% of the snaps last year.
I don’t feel like TE is or should be a huge priority. Especially not a trade up priority.
I’d be looking to upgrade WR3 to challenge Palmer. That would move the needle more on offense, imo.
I don’t feel like TE is or should be a huge priority. Especially not a trade up priority.
I’d be looking to upgrade WR3 to challenge Palmer. That would move the needle more on offense, imo.
Re: Evaluating TE going into 2024-2025
We definitely need to utilize the power of the TE and expand our offensive strategies. The more we spread our offense, the more weapons we can bring into play.
Re: Evaluating TE going into 2024-2025
Grahamburn wrote: ↑Tue Apr 23, 2024 7:37 am Coen is likely to be a lot more 3 WR sets. Otton’s snaps should go down some if Durham is capable of filling in. Otton played 97% of the snaps last year.
I don’t feel like TE is or should be a huge priority. Especially not a trade up priority.
I’d be looking to upgrade WR3 to challenge Palmer. That would move the needle more on offense, imo.
Would cost to get Bowers, probably three picks if they would do it at all. Not worth it.
Re: Evaluating TE going into 2024-2025
@Sdbucs
Since you seem to be a paying PFF customer does their prospect list increase substantially? I get to see 316 prospects. I do like the info they give out.
Since you seem to be a paying PFF customer does their prospect list increase substantially? I get to see 316 prospects. I do like the info they give out.
Re: Evaluating TE going into 2024-2025
Our TEs have been non factors on the field since Gronk retired. It's not how we choose to attack teams, we prefer doing that with Evans.
That said, it hurts us worse than people might realize. I think if your TEs aren't factors in the passing game they should absolutely be factors in the run blocking department and they aren't. I think OBP will look at adding to the position and it'll likely be guys who can contribute in the run game.
Cotton is basically a poor man's Cameron Brate. He'll make a few catches but it's mostly as a safety valve. He's not going to be much of a threat. Durham looks extremely slow and will have a hard time getting open. Ko is just a body.
That said, it hurts us worse than people might realize. I think if your TEs aren't factors in the passing game they should absolutely be factors in the run blocking department and they aren't. I think OBP will look at adding to the position and it'll likely be guys who can contribute in the run game.
Cotton is basically a poor man's Cameron Brate. He'll make a few catches but it's mostly as a safety valve. He's not going to be much of a threat. Durham looks extremely slow and will have a hard time getting open. Ko is just a body.
Most hated man in America.
Re: Evaluating TE going into 2024-2025
My take on the TE position. In general, not Buccaneers specific.
You want a TE who can block and pass catch. That way you do not tip your hand to the defense as to what you are going to do. I prefer that over the 'trickery' of putting a blocking TE in and then throwing them the ball.
You want a TE who can block and pass catch. That way you do not tip your hand to the defense as to what you are going to do. I prefer that over the 'trickery' of putting a blocking TE in and then throwing them the ball.
Re: Evaluating TE going into 2024-2025
I'd agree here. Not a star in either department but somebody who can at least be serviceable doing both. We don't have that guy yet.13F11B wrote: ↑Tue Apr 23, 2024 9:42 am My take on the TE position. In general, not Buccaneers specific.
You want a TE who can block and pass catch. That way you do not tip your hand to the defense as to what you are going to do. I prefer that over the 'trickery' of putting a blocking TE in and then throwing them the ball.
Most hated man in America.
Re: Evaluating TE going into 2024-2025
What priority free agent are you guys looking at - snicker..
-
- Posts: 3556
- Joined: Mon Sep 06, 2021 8:50 pm
- Reputation: 1020
Re: Evaluating TE going into 2024-2025
Brate is a pretty good comp, and what's wrong with that? He was plenty serviceable as Jameis' blankey. Brate's two best seasons as a receiver are on par with what Otton did last year. Pepper Otton with 20-25 more targets and he'd have similar statistics to Brate's best two years as a Buc.
Re: Evaluating TE going into 2024-2025
Key words you missed: POOR MAN'S. They're similar in that they have similar size and they are basically the same type of TE. Neither is even average at blocking. Brate was much better however.Grahamburn wrote: ↑Tue Apr 23, 2024 10:02 am Brate is a pretty good comp, and what's wrong with that? He was plenty serviceable as Jameis' blankey. Brate's two best seasons as a receiver are on par with what Otton did last year. Pepper Otton with 20-25 more targets and he'd have similar statistics to Brate's best two years as a Buc.
Everyone except you seems to know and understand what Cotton's main problem is. He drops way too many passes. He can't get consistent separation .
And your piece about Cotton being on par with Brate's best season are part of the delusion I'm talking about.
Cotton 2023: 47 catches 455 yards 4 TDs on 1064 snaps
Brate 2016: 57 catches 660 yards 8 TDs
on 707 snaps
On what planet are these 2 seasons "on par" with one another? Mind you Brate was our #2 TE to begin the year and only started 10 games. He didn't even finish the year healthy as he was put on IR late in the year.
Most hated man in America.
Re: Evaluating TE going into 2024-2025
Brate became unhealthy.
Re: Evaluating TE going into 2024-2025
Correct. 2017 was the last time he played at least 50% of our snaps.
Most hated man in America.
-
- Posts: 3556
- Joined: Mon Sep 06, 2021 8:50 pm
- Reputation: 1020
Re: Evaluating TE going into 2024-2025
You have to factor in target share and how they're used within the offense as a receiver. Snaps and targets aren't created equally. Otton has had only 65 and 67 targets in his two seasons compared to Brate's 81 and 77 in his BEST two seasons as a Buc, and you only referenced Brate's best year. Brate had 591 yards and 6 TDs in 2017. He was also used almost exclusively as a receiver. Otton has been both a receiver and blocker and in on 97% of the snaps.Bootz wrote: ↑Tue Apr 23, 2024 10:47 amKey words you missed: POOR MAN'S. They're similar in that they have similar size and they are basically the same type of TE. Neither is even average at blocking. Brate was much better however.Grahamburn wrote: ↑Tue Apr 23, 2024 10:02 am Brate is a pretty good comp, and what's wrong with that? He was plenty serviceable as Jameis' blankey. Brate's two best seasons as a receiver are on par with what Otton did last year. Pepper Otton with 20-25 more targets and he'd have similar statistics to Brate's best two years as a Buc.
Everyone except you seems to know and understand what Cotton's main problem is. He drops way too many passes. He can't get consistent separation .
And your piece about Cotton being on par with Brate's best season are part of the delusion I'm talking about.
Cotton 2023: 47 catches 455 yards 4 TDs on 1064 snaps
Brate 2016: 57 catches 660 yards 8 TDs
on 707 snaps
On what planet are these 2 seasons "on par" with one another? Mind you Brate was our #2 TE to begin the year and only started 10 games. He didn't even finish the year healthy as he was put on IR late in the year.
Give Otton 20 more targets and he's "on par" with Brate as a receiver in terms of receiving production and he offers much more as a blocker than Brate did.
Otton is only in his second year. Brate's second year he only had 30 targets, 23 catches, 288 yards, and 3 TDs. Brate's breakout was in his 3rd year...
Re: Evaluating TE going into 2024-2025
That’s what I see as well on their draft big board, 316 prospects. It’s hard to discern what’s paid for or not once you have full access. I’m sure they have stats for players not listed on the big board though, I just don’t know who that would be.
I believe I also see more stats for each prospect, that some stats are paywalled
Re: Evaluating TE going into 2024-2025
You continue to show you have no clue what you're talking about.Grahamburn wrote: ↑Tue Apr 23, 2024 11:22 amYou have to factor in target share and how they're used within the offense as a receiver. Snaps and targets aren't created equally. Otton has had only 65 and 67 targets in his two seasons compared to Brate's 81 and 77 in his BEST two seasons as a Buc, and you only referenced Brate's best year. Brate had 591 yards and 6 TDs in 2017. He was also used almost exclusively as a receiver. Otton has been both a receiver and blocker and in on 97% of the snaps.Bootz wrote: ↑Tue Apr 23, 2024 10:47 am
Key words you missed: POOR MAN'S. They're similar in that they have similar size and they are basically the same type of TE. Neither is even average at blocking. Brate was much better however.
Everyone except you seems to know and understand what Cotton's main problem is. He drops way too many passes. He can't get consistent separation .
And your piece about Cotton being on par with Brate's best season are part of the delusion I'm talking about.
Cotton 2023: 47 catches 455 yards 4 TDs on 1064 snaps
Brate 2016: 57 catches 660 yards 8 TDs
on 707 snaps
On what planet are these 2 seasons "on par" with one another? Mind you Brate was our #2 TE to begin the year and only started 10 games. He didn't even finish the year healthy as he was put on IR late in the year.
Give Otton 20 more targets and he's "on par" with Brate as a receiver in terms of receiving production and he offers much more as a blocker than Brate did.
Otton is only in his second year. Brate's second year he only had 30 targets, 23 catches, 288 yards, and 3 TDs. Brate's breakout was in his 3rd year...
Otton ran 568 routes last season. 2nd most amongst TEs. That means that more than half his snaps were him running a route, including 315 routes run from the slot. We didn't use him as a blocker nearly as much as you pretend.
Furthermore, Cotton has been a terrible blocker. You watch the film and you won't see a guy who knows better than anybody as a blocker.
And you treat "years played" like it's Madden where your attributes increase annually. Doesn't work that way, kiddo. Brate played 44 snaps his rookie year over 5 games played and1 start. He had 1 catch. That doesn't amount to much experience at all. Otton over 2 years has played more snaps than Brate did his 1st 4 seasons combined. Otton has to this point played in 36 total games (33 regular season, 3 playoff). Brate at the same point after 2 seasons played in 19 total games.
There's nothing to suggest Otton does more with more targets either because he's been prone to drops and has trouble getting open. as well. But yet again your entire theory revolves around what another player did previously. Delusion.
Most hated man in America.
Re: Evaluating TE going into 2024-2025
In baseball Wins Above Replacement is a stat that compares players to their peers. A player might check all the boxes but have a bad WAR, because his peers are better. Cotton's WAR would be very low.
Re: Evaluating TE going into 2024-2025
I will say that this thread has made me casually look at upcoming tight ends and looking at our current roster more than I otherwise would have.
Guess how many bench reps of 225 our current crop of tight ends did at their combines? I know it's not the be-all of lifting, but it's the only strength data point that we have so I digress:
Cade Otton - 17
Ko Kieft - 21
Payne Durham - 14
There's guys at your local gym who top that easily.
By comparison, Rob Gronkowski and Mercedes Lewis, imo two of the best blocking tight ends of the last 20 years, had 23 reps apiece.
Maybe a midrounder for a blocking tight end like Tip Reiman (28 reps) wouldn't be a horrible idea.
Guess how many bench reps of 225 our current crop of tight ends did at their combines? I know it's not the be-all of lifting, but it's the only strength data point that we have so I digress:
Cade Otton - 17
Ko Kieft - 21
Payne Durham - 14
There's guys at your local gym who top that easily.
By comparison, Rob Gronkowski and Mercedes Lewis, imo two of the best blocking tight ends of the last 20 years, had 23 reps apiece.
Maybe a midrounder for a blocking tight end like Tip Reiman (28 reps) wouldn't be a horrible idea.
Re: Evaluating TE going into 2024-2025
Looking at the TE's available Theo Johnson from Penn State looks interesting. Not a lot of passing opportunities, but when he was a target the QB rating was 140.7. Kid was an excellent blocker in games I watched. Not sure how much of that was schematic. I think he can be had with the 2nd 3rd round pick. I don't think he makes it to 127 though.
-
- Posts: 3556
- Joined: Mon Sep 06, 2021 8:50 pm
- Reputation: 1020
Re: Evaluating TE going into 2024-2025
We can go round and round. What read is Otton on the majority of those routes? 3rd at best and probably 4th/5th the majority of the time? He was actually 3rd in routes run. Only 12.2% of team targets though good for 21st amongst TE's and not surprisingly he ended up 21st for receiving yards. He actually only had 3 drops compared to Njoku's 11, Kelce's 7, or LaPorta's 5. I'd say that's fine in the drop department.Bootz wrote: ↑Tue Apr 23, 2024 12:11 pmYou continue to show you have no clue what you're talking about.Grahamburn wrote: ↑Tue Apr 23, 2024 11:22 am
You have to factor in target share and how they're used within the offense as a receiver. Snaps and targets aren't created equally. Otton has had only 65 and 67 targets in his two seasons compared to Brate's 81 and 77 in his BEST two seasons as a Buc, and you only referenced Brate's best year. Brate had 591 yards and 6 TDs in 2017. He was also used almost exclusively as a receiver. Otton has been both a receiver and blocker and in on 97% of the snaps.
Give Otton 20 more targets and he's "on par" with Brate as a receiver in terms of receiving production and he offers much more as a blocker than Brate did.
Otton is only in his second year. Brate's second year he only had 30 targets, 23 catches, 288 yards, and 3 TDs. Brate's breakout was in his 3rd year...
Otton ran 568 routes last season. 2nd most amongst TEs. That means that more than half his snaps were him running a route, including 315 routes run from the slot. We didn't use him as a blocker nearly as much as you pretend.
Furthermore, Cotton has been a terrible blocker. You watch the film and you won't see a guy who knows better than anybody as a blocker.
And you treat "years played" like it's Madden where your attributes increase annually. Doesn't work that way, kiddo. Brate played 44 snaps his rookie year over 5 games played and1 start. He had 1 catch. That doesn't amount to much experience at all. Otton over 2 years has played more snaps than Brate did his 1st 4 seasons combined. Otton has to this point played in 36 total games (33 regular season, 3 playoff). Brate at the same point after 2 seasons played in 19 total games.
There's nothing to suggest Otton does more with more targets either because he's been prone to drops and has trouble getting open. as well. But yet again your entire theory revolves around what another player did previously. Delusion.
I'm not arguing that he's some top tier TE, but I also don't feel like the position really needs to be addressed. Especially in this draft. We don't feature him. He's an afterthought because we have Evans and Godwin, and that's ok. He's average, and that's ok. Especially with his looks likely to decrease in this offense anyway.
If your point is that he needs to be replaced asap with an early pick then I disagree. If we want to add another player to the room in rounds 4-7 then sure.
Re: Evaluating TE going into 2024-2025
Per PFF stats two TEs I would look at are AJ Barner - Michigan and Ben Sinnott - Kansas State
-
- Posts: 739
- Joined: Wed Sep 01, 2021 2:51 pm
- Reputation: 213
Re: Evaluating TE going into 2024-2025
That sounds a lot like the kid from K-State, Sinnott.Bootz wrote: ↑Tue Apr 23, 2024 9:45 amI'd agree here. Not a star in either department but somebody who can at least be serviceable doing both. We don't have that guy yet.13F11B wrote: ↑Tue Apr 23, 2024 9:42 am My take on the TE position. In general, not Buccaneers specific.
You want a TE who can block and pass catch. That way you do not tip your hand to the defense as to what you are going to do. I prefer that over the 'trickery' of putting a blocking TE in and then throwing them the ball.
-
- Posts: 3556
- Joined: Mon Sep 06, 2021 8:50 pm
- Reputation: 1020
Re: Evaluating TE going into 2024-2025
Or Cade Otton. Sinnott is a better athlete, but not necessarily a better player overall. Otton was a higher rated prospect when he came out at 6.31 versus Sinnott at 6.13.
New shiny toys are always better though, right?
-
- Posts: 3556
- Joined: Mon Sep 06, 2021 8:50 pm
- Reputation: 1020
Re: Evaluating TE going into 2024-2025
Not really what we need.Athletic F tight end with an ability to add value in the passing game and handle some blocking duties in space. The former walk-on has added 40 pounds to his frame without losing his speed or agility. He’s an adequate route runner with the quickness to compete against man coverage on all three levels and get additional yards after the catch. He lacks NFL physicality to hold up on blocking duties near the line, and he needs to prove he can play with quicker, stronger hands as a pass catcher. Sinnott is a Day 3 talent but his NFL journey could be determined by whether he can get just a little bit better in all phases.
Re: Evaluating TE going into 2024-2025
If your aim is to keep the bar low, I suppose.Grahamburn wrote: ↑Tue Apr 23, 2024 2:03 pmOr Cade Otton. Sinnott is a better athlete, but not necessarily a better player overall. Otton was a higher rated prospect when he came out at 6.31 versus Sinnott at 6.13.
New shiny toys are always better though, right?
And who gives a damn about prospect grade given by 1 site? Tape matter more and those who know what they are seeing act accordingly.
Most hated man in America.
-
- Posts: 3556
- Joined: Mon Sep 06, 2021 8:50 pm
- Reputation: 1020
Re: Evaluating TE going into 2024-2025
Just pointing out by that particular grading system Otton is/was considered a better prospect.Bootz wrote: ↑Tue Apr 23, 2024 2:07 pmIf your aim is to keep the bar low, I suppose.Grahamburn wrote: ↑Tue Apr 23, 2024 2:03 pm
Or Cade Otton. Sinnott is a better athlete, but not necessarily a better player overall. Otton was a higher rated prospect when he came out at 6.31 versus Sinnott at 6.13.
New shiny toys are always better though, right?
And who gives a damn about prospect grade given by 1 site? Tape matter more and those who know what they are seeing act accordingly.
-
- Posts: 739
- Joined: Wed Sep 01, 2021 2:51 pm
- Reputation: 213
Re: Evaluating TE going into 2024-2025
I'm just offering my 2 cents. I don't have a horse in this race really. I don't see the TE position as a "NEED", but I think if a value surfaces, I don't have a problem with taking advantage. If Bowers falls to #26, I think we should take him. I wouldn't even have a problem if the cost of moving from #26 to say #20 is pick #92, to get Bowers (I think if he falls to Miami at #21, they take him). To note, I wouldn't be upset if someone else takes him either. Honestly, I think the limitations of our QB plays a big part in how our players produce, that's why I don't see a need in aggressively upgrading the TE position. Even if we get Bowers, I think his potential is capped by Mayfield... which is why I don't have problem in passing on him.Grahamburn wrote: ↑Tue Apr 23, 2024 2:03 pmOr Cade Otton. Sinnott is a better athlete, but not necessarily a better player overall. Otton was a higher rated prospect when he came out at 6.31 versus Sinnott at 6.13.
New shiny toys are always better though, right?
-
- Posts: 3556
- Joined: Mon Sep 06, 2021 8:50 pm
- Reputation: 1020
Re: Evaluating TE going into 2024-2025
I don’t think we’ll have to worry about Bowers falling into our range. But, sure. I’d give up that late 3rd for him. I’d do it for JPJ also.
-
- Posts: 739
- Joined: Wed Sep 01, 2021 2:51 pm
- Reputation: 213
Re: Evaluating TE going into 2024-2025
I'm fine with anyone... just hope they're not a bust. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯Grahamburn wrote: ↑Tue Apr 23, 2024 2:32 pm I don’t think we’ll have to worry about Bowers falling into our range. But, sure. I’d give up that late 3rd for him. I’d do it for JPJ also.
-
- Posts: 923
- Joined: Fri Oct 15, 2021 10:24 pm
- Reputation: 218
Re: Evaluating TE going into 2024-2025
If the Bucs move way up in the draft with both FSU edge Verse and TE Bowers still on the board, who do the Bucs take?
Re: Evaluating TE going into 2024-2025
Bowers
I have a hard time envisioning them trading up into the top 10. That’s how far they need to go.
I have a hard time envisioning them trading up into the top 10. That’s how far they need to go.
Re: Evaluating TE going into 2024-2025
I would be pretty bummed out if we traded up, not gonna lie, especially if we moved "way up." I was reading an ESPN (I think) article last week looking at the historical returns on trading up for non-quarterbacks, and the data showed that it is universally a Bad Idea.GreatTimes wrote: ↑Tue Apr 23, 2024 4:35 pm If the Bucs move way up in the draft with both FSU edge Verse and TE Bowers still on the board, who do the Bucs take?
But if we did... I guess Bowers?
Re: Evaluating TE going into 2024-2025
Cheb wrote: ↑Tue Apr 23, 2024 7:32 pmI would be pretty bummed out if we traded up, not gonna lie, especially if we moved "way up." I was reading an ESPN (I think) article last week looking at the historical returns on trading up for non-quarterbacks, and the data showed that it is universally a Bad Idea.GreatTimes wrote: ↑Tue Apr 23, 2024 4:35 pm If the Bucs move way up in the draft with both FSU edge Verse and TE Bowers still on the board, who do the Bucs take?
But if we did... I guess Bowers?