Evaluating TE going into 2024-2025

[mdb1958]

I would be pretty bummed out if we traded up, not gonna lie, especially if we moved "way up." I was reading an ESPN (I think) article last week looking at the historical returns on trading up for non-quarterbacks, and the data showed that it is universally a Bad Idea.

But if we did... I guess Bowers?

I'd be fielding offers from the Cards and then the Bills.

[CannonFire]

If the Bucs move way up in the draft with both FSU edge Verse and TE Bowers still on the board, who do the Bucs take?

I would be pretty bummed out if we traded up, not gonna lie, especially if we moved "way up." I was reading an ESPN (I think) article last week looking at the historical returns on trading up for non-quarterbacks, and the data showed that it is universally a Bad Idea.

But if we did... I guess Bowers?

Saw something similar on trade-ups involving QB's... looks like the only good ones were in the last 5 to 7 years, Love (possibly), Mahomes, Allen, & Jackson. Other than that, there's a lot of "Oof!" with Darnold, Rosen, Trubisky, Goff, Wetnz, Lynch, Bridgewater, RG3, Tebow... the list goes on and on. I think prior to Mahomes, Flacco in 2008 might be the only one that worked out, going back to the 70's.

I believe it was like 6 of 29 worked, but their list stopped with the 2020 draft and didn't include Fields & Lance (nor Young... but we can't call that one yet). So it looks like it's 6 of 31, so only a 20% hit rate. Was non-QB's worse than a 20% hit rate?


Funny little oddity... in 2017, the Texans traded up with Cleveland to get Deshaun Watson. The following year, the Browns drafted Mayfield, whom they dumped 4 years later to make a trade with the Texans to get Deshaun Watson.

[Grahamburn]

I would be pretty bummed out if we traded up, not gonna lie, especially if we moved "way up." I was reading an ESPN (I think) article last week looking at the historical returns on trading up for non-quarterbacks, and the data showed that it is universally a Bad Idea.

But if we did... I guess Bowers?

Saw something similar on trade-ups involving QB's... looks like the only good ones were in the last 5 to 7 years, Love (possibly), Mahomes, Allen, & Jackson. Other than that, there's a lot of "Oof!" with Darnold, Rosen, Trubisky, Goff, Wetnz, Lynch, Bridgewater, RG3, Tebow... the list goes on and on. I think prior to Mahomes, Flacco in 2008 might be the only one that worked out, going back to the 70's.

I believe it was like 6 of 29 worked, but their list stopped with the 2020 draft and didn't include Fields & Lance (nor Young... but we can't call that one yet). So it looks like it's 6 of 31, so only a 20% hit rate. Was non-QB's worse than a 20% hit rate?


Funny little oddity... in 2017, the Texans traded up with Cleveland to get Deshaun Watson. The following year, the Browns drafted Mayfield, whom they dumped 4 years later to make a trade with the Texans to get Deshaun Watson.

Says something eh? I just quoted you in the other thread regarding moving up for Penix. I don't mind getting a QB in this draft, but I'd prefer it be Rattler with a 3rd if they're going to do it.

QB development seems to be as much to do with the culture and organization almost as much as talent. So many of these guys with early draft pressure to play right away are failing. They need some time to develop and grow.

[CannonFire]

Saw something similar on trade-ups involving QB's... looks like the only good ones were in the last 5 to 7 years, Love (possibly), Mahomes, Allen, & Jackson. Other than that, there's a lot of "Oof!" with Darnold, Rosen, Trubisky, Goff, Wetnz, Lynch, Bridgewater, RG3, Tebow... the list goes on and on. I think prior to Mahomes, Flacco in 2008 might be the only one that worked out, going back to the 70's.

I believe it was like 6 of 29 worked, but their list stopped with the 2020 draft and didn't include Fields & Lance (nor Young... but we can't call that one yet). So it looks like it's 6 of 31, so only a 20% hit rate. Was non-QB's worse than a 20% hit rate?


Funny little oddity... in 2017, the Texans traded up with Cleveland to get Deshaun Watson. The following year, the Browns drafted Mayfield, whom they dumped 4 years later to make a trade with the Texans to get Deshaun Watson.

Says something eh? I just quoted you in the other thread regarding moving up for Penix. I don't mind getting a QB in this draft, but I'd prefer it be Rattler with a 3rd if they're going to do it.

QB development seems to be as much to do with the culture and organization almost as much as talent. So many of these guys with early draft pressure to play right away are failing. They need some time to develop and grow.

Yeah, it says that over the last 50 years, it was only the last 10 where teams were doing better at trading up for QB's as 5 of the 6 that have had success, happened in the last 7 drafts. The number of trade-up's that worked since then is higher than the number that didn't work. It's also a higher hit-rate than those who stood pat and drafted their guy.

If you think trading up (using a 2nd rounder this year), to get a QB in the 1st is wasting a pick that could help Mayfield, how is using a 3rd (who like a 2nd rounder... you'd expect to be a big contributor), on a QB helping Mayfield?

[Sdbucs]

If Bowers is there at say 16, do we trade up for him?

If he pans out and is an elite tier prospect that's an insane boost for our offense

I've seen him mocked to CIN at 18

[Snake]

I’ll go on record. There’s no fucking way he’s falling to 18.

[kaimaru]

I’ll go on record. There’s no fucking way he’s falling to 18.

In one mock, I tried to find ways to make him last two 21 by saying this position is traditionally valued more. When I got to the Colts, their only TE on their roster is Mo Alie-Cox. That is it. No way they don't run to the podium

[Grahamburn]

Agree. Don’t think he gets past the Colts.

[Sdbucs]

Would you give someone before the Colts this year’s first and next year’s first to trade up for one of the best TE prospects ever graded? A position that also happens to be a huge weakness for us?

Idk man I want DE at 26, but the only way our offense can hit the next gear is adding another weapon outside of Evans and Godwin. Parlay Bowers with our investment into Baker and go for it all

I also notice a lot of mocks and IND fans wanting one of the top DBs at that pick, so there’s that.. but yeah no way he makes it past them

[CannonFire]

Would you give someone before the Colts this year’s first and next year’s first to trade up for one of the best TE prospects ever graded? A position that also happens to be a huge weakness for us?

Idk man I want DE at 26, but the only way our offense can hit the next gear is adding another weapon outside of Evans and Godwin. Parlay Bowers with our investment into Baker and go for it all

I also notice a lot of mocks and IND fans wanting one of the top DBs at that pick, so there’s that.. but yeah no way he makes it past them

Getting ahead of the Colts will be tough. Right before them is the Saints. I think a deal could be done, but it would have to be an overpay. Just looking at the draft chart, to go from #26 to 14 (the Saints), we would need to give #57, 125, & a 2025 4th (from a value standpoint). Because it's the Saints, we probably would have to give #89 instead of the 2025 4th. Are you prepared to give up 3 picks to get Bowers? I'm not.

[Grahamburn]

Would you give someone before the Colts this year’s first and next year’s first to trade up for one of the best TE prospects ever graded? A position that also happens to be a huge weakness for us?

Idk man I want DE at 26, but the only way our offense can hit the next gear is adding another weapon outside of Evans and Godwin. Parlay Bowers with our investment into Baker and go for it all

I also notice a lot of mocks and IND fans wanting one of the top DBs at that pick, so there’s that.. but yeah no way he makes it past them

No. This is a deep WR draft. They could get a weapon WR3 at 26 like Brian Thomas. They could invest in the line, which would also help the offense take off.

Need pass rush too. A CB. A LB. Trading all those picks for a TE?

If anything I'd prefer they trade back versus giving up all those assets for a TE. I like Bowers, but I don't think he's some generational player.

[Grahamburn]

Would you give someone before the Colts this year’s first and next year’s first to trade up for one of the best TE prospects ever graded? A position that also happens to be a huge weakness for us?

Idk man I want DE at 26, but the only way our offense can hit the next gear is adding another weapon outside of Evans and Godwin. Parlay Bowers with our investment into Baker and go for it all

I also notice a lot of mocks and IND fans wanting one of the top DBs at that pick, so there’s that.. but yeah no way he makes it past them

Getting ahead of the Colts will be tough. Right before them is the Saints. I think a deal could be done, but it would have to be an overpay. Just looking at the draft chart, to go from #26 to 14 (the Saints), we would need to give #57, 125, & a 2025 4th (from a value standpoint). Because it's the Saints, we probably would have to give #89 instead of the 2025 4th. Are you prepared to give up 3 picks to get Bowers? I'm not.

Have to get to 13 I think. If he falls then sure, but I don't think giving up assets makes much sense for us.

[Selmon Rules]

I'd rather see them improve the weakest parts of the team, IOL and Edge, period.

Better IOL helps every skill position on the offense and Edge helps out everyone in the defensive backfield. QB can't throw if they're on the ground

[mdb1958]

Would you give someone before the Colts this year’s first and next year’s first to trade up for one of the best TE prospects ever graded? A position that also happens to be a huge weakness for us?

Idk man I want DE at 26, but the only way our offense can hit the next gear is adding another weapon outside of Evans and Godwin. Parlay Bowers with our investment into Baker and go for it all

I also notice a lot of mocks and IND fans wanting one of the top DBs at that pick, so there’s that.. but yeah no way he makes it past them

Getting ahead of the Colts will be tough. Right before them is the Saints. I think a deal could be done, but it would have to be an overpay. Just looking at the draft chart, to go from #26 to 14 (the Saints), we would need to give #57, 125, & a 2025 4th (from a value standpoint). Because it's the Saints, we probably would have to give #89 instead of the 2025 4th. Are you prepared to give up 3 picks to get Bowers? I'm not.

Licht would tell us 4 picks was a good deal.

[Sdbucs]

Would you give someone before the Colts this year’s first and next year’s first to trade up for one of the best TE prospects ever graded? A position that also happens to be a huge weakness for us?

Idk man I want DE at 26, but the only way our offense can hit the next gear is adding another weapon outside of Evans and Godwin. Parlay Bowers with our investment into Baker and go for it all

I also notice a lot of mocks and IND fans wanting one of the top DBs at that pick, so there’s that.. but yeah no way he makes it past them

Getting ahead of the Colts will be tough. Right before them is the Saints. I think a deal could be done, but it would have to be an overpay. Just looking at the draft chart, to go from #26 to 14 (the Saints), we would need to give #57, 125, & a 2025 4th (from a value standpoint). Because it's the Saints, we probably would have to give #89 instead of the 2025 4th. Are you prepared to give up 3 picks to get Bowers? I'm not.

I mean lets say the Raiders miss out on all the QBs. I bet they'd answer the phone.

We have made it apparent that we are in win now mode. A generational TE makes our offense go from middle of the pack to a serious threat. I've been saying it but we can't just have Evans and Godwin. We need another threat. A TE, a RB, a Deebo type WR, or a stud QB. You can't just be a dominant offense with two A-tier WRs and nothing else.

The logical pick would be DE/OL at 26. But if we swing and miss on a DE prospect at 26... we're a 9-8 team at best next season. O-line fits the bill but is never a sexy pick. Both Oline as well as TE will help our run game.

I just don't think trading 26 and what will likely be pick 23-32 next season is too expensive for us in the position we are in. We are picking 26 because we committed to trying to win with Baker, not stockpile picks and rebuild.

[CannonFire]

Getting ahead of the Colts will be tough. Right before them is the Saints. I think a deal could be done, but it would have to be an overpay. Just looking at the draft chart, to go from #26 to 14 (the Saints), we would need to give #57, 125, & a 2025 4th (from a value standpoint). Because it's the Saints, we probably would have to give #89 instead of the 2025 4th. Are you prepared to give up 3 picks to get Bowers? I'm not.

Licht would tell us 4 picks was a good deal.

I'm sure he would.

I'm just as sure as some here would applaud him for it too.

[CannonFire]

Getting ahead of the Colts will be tough. Right before them is the Saints. I think a deal could be done, but it would have to be an overpay. Just looking at the draft chart, to go from #26 to 14 (the Saints), we would need to give #57, 125, & a 2025 4th (from a value standpoint). Because it's the Saints, we probably would have to give #89 instead of the 2025 4th. Are you prepared to give up 3 picks to get Bowers? I'm not.

I mean lets say the Raiders miss out on all the QBs. I bet they'd answer the phone.

We have made it apparent that we are in win now mode. A generational TE makes our offense go from middle of the pack to a serious threat. I've been saying it but we can't just have Evans and Godwin. We need another threat. A TE, a RB, a Deebo type WR, or a stud QB. You can't just be a dominant offense with two A-tier WRs and nothing else.

The logical pick would be DE/OL at 26. But if we swing and miss on a DE prospect at 26... we're a 9-8 team at best next season. O-line fits the bill but is never a sexy pick. Both Oline as well as TE will help our run game.

I just don't think trading 26 and what will likely be pick 23-32 next season is too expensive for us in the position we are in. We are picking 26 because we committed to trying to win with Baker, not stockpile picks and rebuild.

I agree with a lot here. While we've made it apparent we're in a win-now mode, I don't see that as being realistic. I think that if everything goes well, simply meaning that no one gets hurt, we have a 7-win team. That aside, I don't disagree with anything you've said, but I will point out that "stockpiling" isn't really the word I'd use. Meaning, if we dropped from 26 to 37 (just an example), the compensation is really only an extra 3rd and a 4th round bump. If it were the Chargers, they'd get #26, 92, & 125... we'd get #37, 69 , and 105. I'm not suggesting doing #26 for a 4th and a 2025 1st.

I'm also not so sure that Chargers would be picking that late next year. They have more holes to fill than we do. I think their year will be 2025, not this coming year.

To note, I'm not suggesting taking a deal that drops us into the 50's. I'm not going to drop 25-30 picks to pick up an extra pick next year... unless it's a first. Say Cleveland offers #52, a 4th, and next years first... I think I'm doing that (because I think that's a huge overpay). I know they'll be picking in the late 20's, but I don't think I can pass up a 1st. If they offer a 2nd in 2025, then the answer is no, and just draft someone.

[mdb1958]

I’ll go on record. There’s no fucking way he’s falling to 18.

In one mock, I tried to find ways to make him last two 21 by saying this position is traditionally valued more. When I got to the Colts, their only TE on their roster is Mo Alie-Cox. That is it. No way they don't run to the podium

I think Bowers is a good player - I just think he's going to get on IR.

[Snake]

In one mock, I tried to find ways to make him last two 21 by saying this position is traditionally valued more. When I got to the Colts, their only TE on their roster is Mo Alie-Cox. That is it. No way they don't run to the podium

I think Bowers is a good player - I just think he's going to get on IR.

Proneness to getting beat up is something that he’s dealt with. for sure.

[mdb1958]

I think Bowers is a good player - I just think he's going to get on IR.

Proneness to getting beat up is something that he’s dealt with. for sure.

Like I said before if he is going to hang around that line of scrimmage, he will be put in the Gronk pinball machine.

[Grahamburn]

Proneness to getting beat up is something that he’s dealt with. for sure.

Like I said before if he is going to hang around that line of scrimmage, he will be put in the Gronk pinball machine.

He’s a munchkin compared to Gronk.

[Sdbucs]

I think Bowers is a good player - I just think he's going to get on IR.

Proneness to getting beat up is something that he’s dealt with. for sure.

Does he have an injury history, or you just are saying he is undersized?

[mdb1958]

Proneness to getting beat up is something that he’s dealt with. for sure.

Does he have an injury history, or you just are saying he is undersized?

I think he missed five games in 2023. And he almost scored as many TD's as Jalen Coker.