CFB recruiting and other CFB analysis v1.0

[Snake]

The NCAA thread is a running GDT/stream of consciousness thread. Not really for in depth analysis. I'll try to post those thoughts here and encourage others to do the same.

CFB teams and their fans on IABL:

Florida - Dread, Croc, Rocker, BucFanClw.
FSU - Delt, Noles.
Michigan - Cheb. Phantom. Cheb played at UM. If you dox him, or try, yer banned.
Ohio State - Zarni aka SaggyBallZ. Snake.
Notre Dame - NavyBuc (hope that guy is okay).
UCF - Ken Carson, Kona, Native Son.
USC - Aka South Carolina. uscbucsfan. We call SoCal USC "USCw."
The U - PanteraCanes.
LSU - Xandtar
WV - Mountaineer Buc.
Nebraska - MJW. Snake (Kinda. I have an undying fascination with this program).
Penn State - LilBJ.
Clemson - Kress. Kress once suggested DJ Uiksdfkaskdf was in any way superior to Trevor Lawrence. Laugh at Kress.

unclear associations (if any): PrimeMinister, mdb, Buc2, Swash, Nano.

IABL CFB Truths. A list subject to change.

1. Saban is the GOAT.
2. The SEC is King.
3. Bagmen dominate the highest end of the sport. Probably the lower ends, as well.
4. Most P5 teams should aspire to be consistently solid, and nothing more. Think Iowa, Wisconsin, Utah, TCU. Inflated expectations lead to program instability and coaching turnover.
5. Speaking of instability, college football is changing rapidly. History has never been less important than it is today in CFB. NIL changed everything and it is impossible to know how far this rabbit hole will go. Some blueblood programs WILL collapse and never recover their status and success. Some seemingly unlikely teams will ascend to the higher level of the sport. All it takes is one really wealthy and really motivated person (usually goes hand-in-hand) to bankroll an entire CFB roster to an exorbitant level. Some schools have already secured thousands of dollars per roster spot. Some players have $1m+ deals signed.

[Snake]

Top 25 2022 recruiting class, at the moment.

Remember, this is volume of recruits + quality of recruits. Alabama will end up top 3, obviously, if not #1. Expect to see some major reshuffling. Some schools are very liberal with offers despite very few of those offers being "committable." Meaning, they'll pull those offers without a second thought despite the kid verbally committing. A lot of projection goes on when they offer a sophomore or junior. if the players do not continue to progress, they get the shaft. no matter what their instagram post says.

1. Penn State
2. Notre Dame
3. Texas
4. Georgia
5. Ohio State
6. Alabama
7. Oregon
8. LSU
9. TAM
10. FSU
11. Clemson
12. Oklahoma
13. North Carolina
14. Stanford
15. Florida
16. Michigan
17. Missouri
18. VT
19. Rutgers
20. Michigan State
21. Arkansas
22. South Carolina
23. WV
24. Boston College
25. Indiana
44. Miami Canes
70. Nebraska

Nebraska is one of those schools who is now getting a bit stingy with offers after having a few late-in-the-process kids flip away from them. also, they're dealing with a sizeable transfer exodus. one can see why they're getting more choosey.

[Rocker]

For the record, I’m a Gators fan.

[PanteraCanes]

For the record, I’m a Gators fan.

[BucFanClw]

For the record, I’m a Gators fan.

Go Gators!

[BucFanClw]

For the record, I’m a Gators fan.

Calm down... you still have that win over App State to hang your hat on...

[PanteraCanes]

Calm down... you still have that win over App State to hang your hat on...

[Cheb]

Per Rivals and 247sports, Michigan has the 16th recruiting class thus far. That's fair. To really elevate that ranking, we need to put together a solid season to solidify Harbaugh's tenure. Beating Ohio State and/or winning the Big Ten and/or making the Playoffs would be HUGE for us, and the strength of our running game this year I think can carry us pretty damn far.

[Crocaneers]

Kiper validated Malik Willis is a strong contender for the NFL

https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2022/insi ... -takeaways

[Xandtar]

[Snake]

Current AP rankings as of 9-21-2021

1-Bama
2-Georgia
3-Oregon
4-OU
5-Iowa
6-Penn St
7-A&M
8-Cincinnati
9-Clemson
10-Ohio St
11-Florida
12-Notre Dame
13-Ole Miss
14-Iowa St
15-BYU
16-Arkansas
17-Coastal
18-Wisconsin
19-Michigan
20-Michigan St
21-UNC
22-Fresno St
23-Auburn
24-UCLA
25-Kansas St

Thoughts:

- PAC has two teams represented. Just an awful conference that is getting worse. Arizona State was supposed to be a team flirting with a top 20 ranking all year and potentially the conference title. They got worked by BYU and are falling apart.

- I think Oklahoma is ranked too high. I see a step down here from previous OU seasons.

- Florida isn't getting enough credit for playing Alabama as well as they have. I'd have them over Ohio State and I don't think it's close.

- Notre Dame better enjoy #12. Because they could be set to tumble bigly. Their next five opponents get the Irish with two weeks to prepare for them. This includes @Wisconsin, vs Cincinnati, @VT, vs USC, vs UNC. Based on their performance so far, I expect them to get got AT LEAST twice in the next five games.

- Harbaugh has committed to the run in Michigan and it's a beautiful thing. Is this a style of play that Ohio State could handle right now? OSU is playing soft, can't set the edge, and their LBs are a mess. Look at these numbers for Michigan through three games...

----Week 1 vs W. Michigan: 17 passing attempts, 43 rushing attempts, 3 rushing TDs.
----Week 2 vs Washington: 15 passing attempts, 55 rushing attempts, 4 rushing TDs.
----Week 3 vs Nor. Illinois: 17 passing attempts, 48 rushing attempts, 7 rushing TDs.

These teams won't be fighting for a CFP spot obviously. Still impressive.

- Clemson has scored two offensive TDs, total, against P5 competition.

[Xandtar]

Despite pounding the mighty Central Michigan Chippewas for their second cupcake party in a row, LSU is ranked exactly where it belongs, not in the top 25. They need to beat some conference opponents before I start to feel good about their chances. That said, if the only game they win the rest of the season is Bama, it's all worth it.

[Snake]

Lane Kiffin follows one person on Instagram. Arch Manning. Son of Cooper Manning, nephew to Eli and Peyton, grandson to Archie. Arch is the #1 pro style QB prospect in 2023 and the #1 overall player.

Cooper attended Ole Miss. Eli attended Ole Miss. Archie (grandpa) attended Ole Miss. Peyton almost attended Ole Miss but Ole Miss was facing penalties at that time.

I think Kiffin is on to something big in Mississippi.

[uscbucsfan]

Lane Kiffin follows one person on Instagram. Arch Manning. Son of Cooper Manning, nephew to Eli and Peyton, grandson to Archie. Arch is the #1 pro style QB prospect in 2023 and the #1 overall player.

Cooper attended Ole Miss. Eli attended Ole Miss. Archie (grandpa) attended Ole Miss. Peyton almost attended Ole Miss but Ole Miss was facing penalties at that time.

I think Kiffin is on to something big in Mississippi.

He is only allowed or is only taking 5 total official visits and just finished with UGA. He also went to Texas, Clemson, Alabama, and LSU.

Apparently UGA and Bama are 1 and 2 (some things UGA is 1 after the last week he spent there).

While they have an outside shot due to history, I think it's likely a long shot.

edit: He did take an unofficial to Ole Miss in July (with UGA, Bama, and Texas), but his rivals confidence with Ole Miss went from 71% to 31% in the last month and a half.

[Kress]

Clemson - Kress. Kress once suggested DJ Uiksdfkaskdf was in any way superior to Trevor Lawrence. Laugh at Kress.

[Snake]

Phil Knight’s donations to Oregon total over $1b.

https://www.oregonlive.com/news/2021/03 ... oject.html

[Snake]

Everything is changing.

[SaggyBallZ]

Interesting … curious to see exactly how that plays out

[Snake]

If you don’t have incredible facilities, you’re not even an afterthought.

https://247sports.com/LongFormArticle/c ... 0189814_18

[Snake]

Top 25 recruiting rankings as of 10-11-2021

1-Bama
2-Penn State
3-Texas
4-Notre Dame
5-Georgia
6-Oregon
7-Ohio State
8-LSU
9-TA&M
10-FSU
11-Clemson
12-Oklahoma
13-UNC
14-Stanford
15-Florida
16-Michigan
17-Michigan State
18-Missouri
19-Virginia Tech
20-Arkansas
21-Rutgers
22-Kentucky
23-South Carolina
24-WV
25-BC

50-UCF
59-Miami (oof)
75-Nebraska

[Snake]

Texas A&M probably going to have their best recruiting class ever. That win over Bama legitimized them in the eyes of many top 50 overall recruits. They’re in on everyone.

[Snake]

#1 recruit in the entire country flipping from FSU to…..

Jackson State.

Yeah, we’re in bizarro world. NIL is outta control. This kid is going to make supposedly over $10 million to go to Jackson State to play with Deion. And it’s possible he will proceed to transfer the following season. Lol

[uscbucsfan]

#1 recruit in the entire country flipping from FSU to…..

Jackson State.

Yeah, we’re in bizarro world. NIL is outta control. This kid is going to make supposedly over $10 million to go to Jackson State to play with Deion. And it’s possible he will proceed to transfer the following season. Lol

I didn't know that the NIL went with the player when they transferred. I thought it was a year to year thing, but Rattler is bringing all of his with him.

[Xandtar]

With Kelly coming in to LSU the recruiting class is a mess this year. Not many hopes for a breakout star next year.

[Snake]

With Kelly coming in to LSU the recruiting class is a mess this year. Not many hopes for a breakout star next year.

Everything is a mess. For everyone. So much movement.

[Defense5599]

The number one recruit in the nation, Travis Hunter, was considered a lock to go to FSU. Up until today, he had FSU all over his social media.

Thanks to Coach Prime, and a $1.75 NIL deal from Barstool Sports/Penn National Gaming, he flipped to Jackson State at the last minute.

[Snake]

You can say that again.

[Snake]

Based on players already committed to their class and current projections, TAM are very likely to end up with 17-18 commits in the top 100 players for the 247composite.

They’re spending like crazy.

[Xandtar]

It's a whole new world. College free agency via the transfer portal, and the money out in the open now.

To hell with education, that pretense is over.

[Primeminister]

The number one recruit in the nation, Travis Hunter, was considered a lock to go to FSU. Up until today, he had FSU all over his social media.

Thanks to Coach Prime, and a $1.75 NIL deal from Barstool Sports/Penn National Gaming, he flipped to Jackson State at the last minute.

I love it. That’s a a massive step for college football. With the right coach and bags of money the small schools can attract top recruits as well.

[Xandtar]

The number one recruit in the nation, Travis Hunter, was considered a lock to go to FSU. Up until today, he had FSU all over his social media.

Thanks to Coach Prime, and a $1.75 NIL deal from Barstool Sports/Penn National Gaming, he flipped to Jackson State at the last minute.

I love it. That’s a a massive step for college football. With the right coach and bags of money the small schools can attract top recruits as well.

It'll work THIS year. But just like baseball has big-market teams and small-market teams and the small-market teams feed the big guys at the trade deadline, so the boosters of the Power 5 will adjust. That prospect will take the money THIS year, then if he lives up to his hype as a freshman he'll ride a big fat contract to Michigan state or USCw where the boosters will pay out the wazoo for him. Jackson State should enjoy their precedent, and soon they'll see who has the bigger pockets for next year's recruiting classes.

[PanteraCanes]

It's a whole new world. College free agency via the transfer portal, and the money out in the open now.

To hell with education, that pretense is over.

The vast majority of the players need to take advantage of the education. They will not see the NFL. Then many that do see the NFL will not make enough to live the rest of their life on.

[Xandtar]

It's the beginning of the slippery slope to Vonnegut's world of "Player Piano", worth a read in itself but which had college football as a separate business from the educational part of each university. Players are bought, sold, and traded between colleges, and they're not supposed to study, it's not why they are there. While set in a dystopian world, conversations like the one described in this study guide will accelerate over the couple of decades to come until there are the regular-scholarship players there for an education, and those who are paid employees for which the NCAA will either look the other way as part of the price of keeping the money machine rolling, or go all-in, in exchange for a bigger cut of the profits than they have now... https://www.litcharts.com/lit/player-piano/chapter-28

[Snake]

I don’t have the time to look into that reference but it seems weirdly appropriate. Good call.

[Primeminister]

It's a whole new world. College free agency via the transfer portal, and the money out in the open now.

To hell with education, that pretense is over.

The vast majority of the players need to take advantage of the education. They will not see the NFL. Then many that do see the NFL will not make enough to live the rest of their life on.

For some of these students they’ll make enough money from NIL to never work again. They’ll make more than any degree could hope to bring.

All that being said I think they should be paid for their labor beyond just NIL. The primary goal of college is to find a career you like that is hopefully lucrative. If these kids get paid they’ve succeeded at college.