Below are the Bucs & Eagles. Click here to read their analysis for all the teams.
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-8)
Odds to win Super Bowl: +7500
FPI chance to make Super Bowl: 1.7%
First-game outlook: The Buccaneers are making their fourth consecutive playoff appearance and start it with a familiar opponent, as they will host the Eagles on Monday, Jan. 15 (8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN/ABC/ESPN+). These teams met in Week 3 at Raymond James Stadium, a 25-11 Eagles win in which the Bucs were held to 174 yards of offense. Tampa Bay has done well against the Eagles in the playoffs though, winning three of five meetings.
Reason for hope: The Bucs found a brand of winning football that culminated in a four-game win streak prior to their Week 17 loss to the Saints. In that streak -- particularly the wins over the Packers and Jaguars -- they were able to sustain drives and score on offense, averaging 28.5 points per game. Quarterback Baker Mayfield was at his best in that span too, throwing nine touchdowns and just one interception. The defense -- marred by inconsistency midway through the season -- regained some of its lost swagger and surrendered just 18.8 points per game in that span.
Reason for concern: Which Bucs team will show up? They've been wildly inconsistent this season between offensive coordinator Dave Canales' growing pains and a defense that gives up big chunk plays but somehow remains stout in the red zone. The offense's momentum came to a screeching halt in Week 17, and the Bucs were back to self-inflicted wounds with penalties, drops and fumbles. Plus, Mayfield is dealing with a rib injury that could affect his ability to throw. -- Jenna Laine
Stat to know: Safety Antoine Winfield Jr.'s numbers are, to put it simply, ridiculous. We'll start with the box score numbers: He has forced six fumbles, recorded three interceptions and delivered six sacks. But the advanced numbers back his impact, too: His run stop win rate ranks first among all defensive backs with at least 50 qualifying plays.
5. Philadelphia Eagles (11-6)
Odds to win Super Bowl: +1200
FPI chance to make Super Bowl: 5.1%
First-game outlook: The Eagles start their third straight playoff campaign with a wild-card matchup at the Buccaneers on Monday, Jan. 15 (8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN/ABC/ESPN+). The Eagles face a team they handled easily in Week 3 en route to a 25-11 victory. This is the sixth-ever postseason meeting between the teams, with the Bucs owning a 3-2 advantage. Philadelphia has lost its past two playoff meetings with the Buccaneers, the most recent a 31-15 defeat in the 2021 wild-card round.
Reason for hope: The Eagles' offense remains one of the most talented units in the NFL. Quarterback Jalen Hurts, an MVP candidate prior to the team's recent slide, operates behind one of the best offensive lines in football and alongside arguably the top receiver duo in franchise history in A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. The play design could use more creativity, and the untimely penalties and turnovers need to stop, but this group is capable of putting up big numbers even against the league's best.
Reason for concern: The defense. A switch from Sean Desai to Matt Patricia as the defensive playcaller has not led to the desired turnaround to this point. The Eagles struggle on third down, in the red zone and in pass defense, and now the strength of the unit -- rush defense -- is faltering as well. Philadelphia will likely exit the postseason early if there isn't marked improvement.
Stat to know: Amid plenty of disappointment, one Eagles stalwart has kept his level of play incredibly high: Lane Johnson. The Eagles' right tackle came into Week 18 ranked first and ninth in run block win rate and pass block win rate, respectively, among all tackles.
