QB Prospects Breakdowns

[Snake]

Traits my friends, traits. This is a beautiful pocket that McCarthy turns around and finds after faking the handoff. It's a one read situation, the play is designed to go to this guy (who ends up scoring the TD). But what does McCarthy do in this play?

► Show Spoiler

While faking the second handoff (sweep), he notices DE #33 swinging wide on the RT. He notices this while spinning and reorienting himself. McCarthy feels that pressure, but he also notices he has space in the pocket, so he steps up, because the WR is not yet open. he steps up, doesn't panic, and delivers a strike.

A LOT of QBs panic there when the WR isn't immediately open. if they sense/feel the pressure behind them. In that moment, it appears that there's some gaps that open up. See:



That is tantalizing grass, especially for an athlete like McCarthy. Only a millisecond later, the Dlinemen disengage and the gap is occupied.

McCarthy kept his eyes downfield, moved up in the pocket, and delivered.

[Snake]

A big question is whether or not a QB's skills translate to the next level. For example, on that McCarthy TD run on the previous page. He beats a defender and is able to turn the corner and run it in for a TD.

Would he be able to do that against someone that is 5% faster, either in processing or in foot speed? Because that would be the norm for the jump to the next level. Gonna depend on who that defender is, but those margins become even finer at the next level. Good, not elite athletes, like McCarthy really have to choose their spots. and a lot of "good" QB athletes are rendered utterly ineffective after making the jump to the NFL. because how they manipulated college defenses with their "good" athleticism is really what made them effective at all. When you remove that advantage, suddenly they can't make it work anymore.

Luckily, I think McCarthy isn't totally dependent on his athleticism to produce. He is accurate, I believe he can process. Though, his ability to manipulate with his feet is a major amplifier of his other skills.

What am I seeing so far?

1. Good wheels. Not Jayden Daniels shiftiness, or long speed. But enough to buy time and escape pockets.

2. Good enough arm strength. Good zip in short and intermediate. I’ve seen a few 45-50 yarders sprinkled in there. Accuracy/ball placement tails off some beyond 35 yards. Just getting it there seems to be the concern. And he can.

3. A strong sense of timing. Perhaps his best trait, along with his pocket sense. Knows when he can wait an extra beat to create space between defenders. However, I’d prefer if he just got the ball out sooner and anticipated space opening, instead of waiting for stuff to open.

4. Manipulates defenses with his feet. Has a natural sense of throwing lanes and how defenders will react to his decisions.

5. Can throw against his body and on the run. Explosive hips and can generate power from unstable platforms.

6. There’s some bad decision making that I need to delve into more. He seems to want to “give his guys a chance to make a play.” Need to figure out if that’s coachable or if he’s just missing stuff post-snap.


I know Nobody is into the situational context. Down/distance etc. I think that’ll be most important while diving deep into this season’s Ohio State game. Michigan blew almost everyone out otherwise.

[Grahamburn]

I appreciate that effort. My worry as well is the projection for him considering what Michigan doesn’t ask him to do.

No arguing his athleticism, but as you point out how much advantage does JJ the athlete garner in the NFL?

He had several plays last night where he inexplicably put the ball in harm’s way.

I’m sure you could easily find just as many “wtf are you doing” plays to embed into spoiler tags too.

Bottom line. I don’t think he’s a first round pick. If he’s our developmental guy for a year or two then great.

[Backside]

I would be fine with taking a chance on Penix or McCarthy if either are there with our first rounder.

[Grahamburn]

Why don't we like Bo Nix? PFF has him ranked 25th. Or Jayden Daniels who they have 20th? Penix is 30th. McCarthy is 52nd.

[Backside]

Why don't we like Bo Nix? PFF has him ranked 25th. Or Jayden Daniels who they have 20th? Penix is 30th. McCarthy is 52nd.

I think Jayden Daniels will be long gone by our pick.

[Grahamburn]

Why don't we like Bo Nix? PFF has him ranked 25th. Or Jayden Daniels who they have 20th? Penix is 30th. McCarthy is 52nd.

I think Jayden Daniels will be long gone by our pick.

He very well could be.

[Doctor]

I would be fine with taking a chance on Penix or McCarthy if either are there with our first rounder.

I like both. Maybe there in our 2nd? Someone is falling.

I feel like we're at the track looking at each horse in the mouth. All these dudes got done nice traits as well as red flags.

[Snake]

Identify and go get the good one. Manifest one’s own destiny.

Don’t just hope for the slop that happens to fall.

[Doctor]

So Brady is slop? See thats so circular having your draft round be the metric that judges your quality which is suppose to be what determines your draft round.

And what if there are none?

Thats the thing that always gets me the most. That in all the years that produced straight trash at QB, every single expert still put out a confident top 5.

If there was any actual merit to the art that is scouting what you'd actually see most years being brushed off as "nothing here" with the rare exception of maybe this guy will be a good QB. Instead of a fresh batch of QBOTFs ready to save half a dozen franchises every year.

[Snake]

Brady is definitely the norm.
Definitely.

[Doctor]

Go Brock Purdy if you want.

Or any non top pick QB.

Point remains you're chasing your tail in your assessment.

[Grahamburn]

Go Brock Purdy if you want.

Or any non top pick QB.

Point remains you're chasing your tail in your assessment.

10 of the 14 teams currently holding playoff spots have a QB that was drafted in the first round. Granted, one of those is ours who many posters so vehemently want to replace with an unknown commodity.

[Doctor]

Wait so where is the line between manifesting your own destiny and settling for the slop that falls?

Pick 2 like Stroud? Or 10 like Mahomes? Or 28 like Rodgers? Or 32 like Lamar (also their second selection)? 33 like Brees?

[Snake]

The higher you draft the more options you have

[Snake]

For example, the Buccaneers will have no shot at drafting Brock Bowers, without parting with many other picks. Because they decided to win meaningless games during a non-competitive phase.

[mdb1958]

Why don't we like Bo Nix? PFF has him ranked 25th. Or Jayden Daniels who they have 20th? Penix is 30th. McCarthy is 52nd.

I think Jayden Daniels will be long gone by our pick.

Which makes it easier to not draft a QB.

[Nobody]

A big question is whether or not a QB's skills translate to the next level. For example, on that McCarthy TD run on the previous page. He beats a defender and is able to turn the corner and run it in for a TD.

Would he be able to do that against someone that is 5% faster, either in processing or in foot speed? Because that would be the norm for the jump to the next level. Gonna depend on who that defender is, but those margins become even finer at the next level. Good, not elite athletes, like McCarthy really have to choose their spots. and a lot of "good" QB athletes are rendered utterly ineffective after making the jump to the NFL. because how they manipulated college defenses with their "good" athleticism is really what made them effective at all. When you remove that advantage, suddenly they can't make it work anymore.

Luckily, I think McCarthy isn't totally dependent on his athleticism to produce. He is accurate, I believe he can process. Though, his ability to manipulate with his feet is a major amplifier of his other skills.

What am I seeing so far?

1. Good wheels. Not Jayden Daniels shiftiness, or long speed. But enough to buy time and escape pockets.

2. Good enough arm strength. Good zip in short and intermediate. I’ve seen a few 45-50 yarders sprinkled in there. Accuracy/ball placement tails off some beyond 35 yards. Just getting it there seems to be the concern. And he can.

3. A strong sense of timing. Perhaps his best trait, along with his pocket sense. Knows when he can wait an extra beat to create space between defenders. However, I’d prefer if he just got the ball out sooner and anticipated space opening, instead of waiting for stuff to open.

4. Manipulates defenses with his feet. Has a natural sense of throwing lanes and how defenders will react to his decisions.

5. Can throw against his body and on the run. Explosive hips and can generate power from unstable platforms.

6. There’s some bad decision making that I need to delve into more. He seems to want to “give his guys a chance to make a play.” Need to figure out if that’s coachable or if he’s just missing stuff post-snap.


I know Nobody is into the situational context. Down/distance etc. I think that’ll be most important while diving deep into this season’s Ohio State game. Michigan blew almost everyone out otherwise.

This is a really great post. I have absolutely zero idea about any of the claims therein (still haven't watched a lick of NCAA football), but its a really good outline and collection of coherent thoughts on the subject of QBing!

Also, I just wanted to thank you @Snake for your really good contributions to this thread. Its very much appreciated.

Just an update as far as I go with this thread, any further contributions/evals for me entirely depend upon what happen in the coming weeks and if my sense is that Baker will be resigned (or if they come out and say it). Presently, I'd put the % chance north of 50 that he gets resigned. If he balls out next week and they win handily + they win or are competitive in the Wild Card round against the Eagles (and he's a part of that formula of "win/competitive"), then I'd say its a lock that he and Coach Bowles return.

Lose this coming week and Coach Bowles is surely getting canned and I'd be extremely surprised if a new coach didn't want to handpick a new QB.

Things get fuzzy when it comes to the results of Jan 13/14. Really depends on a pile-o-stuff. But I would say if we get thwacked by the Eagles and Baker struggles, its likely curtains for both of them...particularly so if we don't handle Carolina the week prior.

[Snake]

I agree. That’s as far as I’m willing to go right now. I think a Baker extension is looming.

[Doctor]

I'm still waiting to truly cross someone off my list yet and I haven't. Such a qb heavy year.

I think there's a good chance for both Baker and a rookie to be in the QB room next year. Someone or two is falling.

[Grahamburn]

I'm still waiting to truly cross someone off my list yet and I haven't. Such a qb heavy year.

I think there's a good chance for both Baker and a rookie to be in the QB room next year. Someone or two is falling.

I agree and if he’s re-signed I’m hopeful we can look at some expected prospects in round 2+

[Grahamburn]

Michael Penix

That's what throwing the ball down the field should look like.

[Doctor]

Funny, if anything Penix has really odd looking mechanics. It almost looks like he crunches more than rotates. Like a snap. The thing is it works. It works really damn well.

Until he can't do it, then his throws get a bit ugly. The questions is do you just augment what he currently does well will more tools or do you ARod him from the ground up?

I'd love him in Tampa.

[Grahamburn]

Funny, if anything Penix has really odd looking mechanics. It almost looks like he crunches more than rotates. Like a snap. The thing is it works. It works really damn well.

Until he can't do it, then his throws get a bit ugly. The questions is do you just augment what he currently does well will more tools or do you ARod him from the ground up?

I'd love him in Tampa.

His motion and style reminds me of Philip Rivers.

[Grahamburn]

Also, Licht seems to have an infatuation with Washington players.

[Snake]

I have a lot of reservations about Penix Jr. the injuries, the age, the throwing motion.

But the guy throws lasers into tiny windows. Deep throws.

[Nobody]

These next several months for me are shaping up to be pretty intense schedule-wise. I'd to have to devote too much extra time for this in the small windows that I'll have and the juice isn't worth the squeeze. So no chance I get to this even if we do appear to be going QB. So you guys do your evals and have fun. Feel free to use this thread (or not).

[Jonny]

MICHAEL PENIX JR

* Age. He'll be 24.5 years old entering his NFL rookie season.

* Uneven play. He's mixed in some poor outings with solid and brilliant play.

* Play Under Pressure falls off extremely when contrasted with play that isn't Under Pressure and it appears that he has had a lot of good protection at Washington. In the NFL, you're either (a) going to be Under Pressure a lot or (b) you're going to have to get the ball out very quickly in order to avoid said Pressure.

His accuracy when pressured seems to be just as you said.

[Snake]

He’s a good jugs machine throwing to NFL receivers

[Grahamburn]

He’s a good jugs machine throwing to NFL receivers

At least he throws it.

[Sdbucs]

Penix looked like trash last night and sounds like a moron when interviewed.

Pass

McCarthy or Nix at 20 works just fine

[mdb1958]

Penix looked like trash last night and sounds like a moron when interviewed.

Pass

McCarthy or Nix at 20 works just fine

Are there better QB prospects coming out in 2025?

[Doctor]

Ewers and Sanders

[Sdbucs]

We see some drafts where a QB and his #1 WR are both early first round picks. I wonder how many of those times only 1 of the two succeeds in the NFL? For example, Evans and Manziel. We now clearly see that Evans was making Manziel look better than he was. Manziel was a fun college QB to watch, but Evans would bail him out.

That’s how I see Penix and Daniels. They’re both flashy, mobile QBs that fit that college mold. But their WRs are both going to be top 10 picks. Were they both just getting bailed out by their WRs ala Manziel?

I’m sure if someone looked into this they’d find a trend.

I also theorize that the inverse is true. A WR or QB that’s a first round talent without a counterpart WR or QB to match is more likely to hit than to bust

[Backside]

We see some drafts where a QB and his #1 WR are both early first round picks. I wonder how many of those times only 1 of the two succeeds in the NFL? For example, Evans and Manziel. We now clearly see that Evans was making Manziel look better than he was. Manziel was a fun college QB to watch, but Evans would bail him out.

That’s how I see Penix and Daniels. They’re both flashy, mobile QBs that fit that college mold. But their WRs are both going to be top 10 picks. Were they both just getting bailed out by their WRs ala Manziel?

I’m sure if someone looked into this they’d find a trend.

I also theorize that the inverse is true. A WR or QB that’s a first round talent without a counterpart WR or QB to match is more likely to hit than to bust

On the other hand; Burrow was throwing to Chase and Jefferson in college and was fine when he came to the pros (But also much better after they drafted Chase...). Ditto Stroud throwing to nothing but elite first round pick WRs in college, and nothing close to that his rookie year in the NFL.

Definitely hard to evaluate and separate out all of the data for individual players.