Division or Savior?

[Doctor]

Will he be a hall of famer?

The Hall of Fame is your expectation for an elite can’t miss prospect?

He made four pro bowls in 7 seasons. He dragged a team that went 2-14 the year before he was drafted, to an 11-5 playoff berth, as a rookie. Four playoff appearances in 7 seasons. Most of those seasons with quite bad supporting casts.

Andrew Luck was an amazing draft pick, who panned out. Meanwhile, Doctor sucks Baker Mayfield’s dick (another #1 pick). Who is objectively mediocre and elevates no one.

Is Mario Williams also a #1 who didn’t pan out? He won’t make the hall. 97 sacks, 3x all pro.

That seems like a rather aggressive characterization of my support. What attitude do you think would be the appropriate one for me to take then?
For a man going out there every day giving it everything he has, leading by example. A guy who lifts guys up when they fuck up a great pass because they all out there trying to get it right for the first time together. And who took half the pay he could've gotten elsewhere to do so here.

Tell me, what's the appropriate attitude?

[Grahamburn]

Mario Williams was a great player. J.J. Watt was a great player drafted 11th. T.J. Watt is better than both of them and was drafted 30th.

You don’t have to pick in the top 10 to get a savior.

[13F11B]

Adrian Peterson was an elite can’t miss prospect. As was Andrew Luck.

They exist.

You miss the point. Many players have been labeled as "can't miss". However, none really are. Some make it. Some do not. Some did not have the desire. Some went to bad teams (coaching, front office, etc). Sure we can all name players who wore the label and became successful players. One could cite Brady's success as a reason late-round picks are best. That would be not very smart. The reality is no one is a sure-fired ca n't-miss player.

[Snake]

Adrian Peterson was an elite can’t miss prospect. As was Andrew Luck.

They exist.

You miss the point. Many players have been labeled as "can't miss". However, none really are. Some make it. Some do not. Some did not have the desire. Some went to bad teams (coaching, front office, etc). Sure we can all name players who wore the label and became successful players. One could cite Brady's success as a reason late-round picks are best. That would be not very smart. The reality is no one is a sure-fired ca n't-miss player.

I don’t miss the point. We need to separate the opinion of sharps versus the hype machine of the media. These are the same people who say there’s a “generational” quarterback every other year.

[Sdbucs]

I think a really interesting data point would be how many wins teams were at, not draft position, when they landed their QBOTF.

You may not have to pick #1 overall, but there might be a statistically significant trend that you have to pick within the top 16 to really have a shot. Or win fewer than 8 games, etc.

[Snake]

Are more franchise quarterbacks selected closer to the first overall pick or the last pick in the draft?

[Four Verticals]

I don't disagree with the first point but who do you have in mind that is a clear upgrade within your second point?

I think any rookie that's eligible to go in the first round has the "potential to be an upgrade." I always say potential because you could wind up with a Trey Lance or Zach Wilson. You could also get a Jalen Hurts or a Josh Allen. But you have to take that chance. You're not going to get to that next level with what we got.

Again I don't disagree. The problem is, unless we're talking about the top few QBs who would be there and likely to go within the first 4-5 picks at worst, I'd guess that it would be more likely a QB selected would end up being no better than Mayfield is...not that I'm hoping for that.

[kaimaru]

Are more franchise quarterbacks selected closer to the first overall pick or the last pick in the draft?

Even someone picked in the 3rd round would qualify for closer to first. Maybe even every non-compensation pick in the 4th. This is in no way a justifiable reasoning for your stance

[Doctor]

He knows that. Their platform is based on smoke and mirrors. Don't try to actually pin them down with any logic, it's all would've, could've, and shoud've.

[Snake]

Are more franchise quarterbacks selected closer to the first overall pick or the last pick in the draft?

Even someone picked in the 3rd round would qualify for closer to first. Maybe even every non-compensation pick in the 4th. This is in no way a justifiable reasoning for your stance

Are more franchise quarterbacks selected closer to the first overall pick or the last pick in the draft?

Even someone picked in the 3rd round would qualify for closer to first. Maybe even every non-compensation pick in the 4th. This is in no way a justifiable reasoning for your stance

When the chips are down, and the season is over, and you’re not fighting for anything of consequence. If we’re being realistic, it would behoove the team to lose. Just lose get rid of Bowles. Get the higher draft pick. Have more options. Don’t put yourself in a situation where you need to give up even more capital to move up and get the players that you want. The worse you are, the better options you will have.

[kaimaru]

Two years in a row we saw mid-season firings of head coaches and two years in a row better and more competitive teams (CAR, LV). So losing out doesn't always even if you fire the GM and HC. Again, this is not rational. Even if we did fire Boweles (which I am all for), won't at all mean we will get a higher draft pick. We may get an even lower draft pick.

Additionally, nothing of consequence? A home playoff game is 100% a consequence to the owners. You will never have them giving that money away

[Snake]

Two years in a row we saw mid-season firings of head coaches and two years in a row better and more competitive teams (CAR, LV). So losing out doesn't always even if you fire the GM and HC. Again, this is not rational. Even if we did fire Boweles (which I am all for), won't at all mean we will get a higher draft pick. We may get an even lower draft pick

I would not fire him. He’s doing a great job losing. Which is what I want to happen right now.

[Bootz]

Are more franchise quarterbacks selected closer to the first overall pick or the last pick in the draft?

Kind of depends on your definition of "franchise QB". You've made it perfectly clear that you don't value winning and championships but rather monikers and personal accolades. In that respect you could say most "franchise" QBs were taken in the 1st, a number of them 1st overall.

[13F11B]

Are more franchise quarterbacks selected closer to the first overall pick or the last pick in the draft?

https://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/ ... rterbacks/

[Snake]

Are more franchise quarterbacks selected closer to the first overall pick or the last pick in the draft?

https://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/ ... rterbacks/

Whole lotta first round picks.

And Tom Brady.

[Nobody]

I have two thoughts on this:

1) The whole draft/front office conversation continuously churns out a huge Motte and Bailey/pea and thimble game. It’s something like these positions trotted out whenever it’s strategically amenable to whatever hill you’re trying to die on in the moment:

* Draft capital (which transcends rd 1 dynamics to all rds) and asset management is irrelevant because the draft is basically a crapshoot.

* GMs and scouting/personnel regimes are better or worse than others so keep the good ones, pay them heaps of cash, and fire the bad ones.

How you discern the good from the bad is inscrutable to me if the first bullet point is true.


2) The number of times you see teams snakebitten in the 2nd and 3rd rounds over the years is staggering. And it’s not just first order snakebitten where a premiere player at a position of need for a team is taken right before them, but you also see a daisy chain of cascading errors after that happens. Head-scratching reaches for clearly inferior players, panic picks because of fear of “run on the position”, and what looks like the NFL front office equivalent of “on tilt.”


So, my position, all told, is straight-forward:

* The NFL personnel “expert class” is overwhelmingly a sham. Some of these guys/regimes are absolute difference-makers. However, like the NBA, the significant majority of them are stealing paychecks…and big ones at that. Your average plumber and electrician ($100-120/hr pending zip code) is 20 x more competent and reliable in their respective fields. And about 100 x more important.

* Position and asset value in the first round matters…but it’s overwhelmingly about position and cascading, compounding errors in the 2nd and 3rd (and even 4th) that matter when you consider any given 4-5 year window.

[Navybuc]

I think any rookie that's eligible to go in the first round has the "potential to be an upgrade." I always say potential because you could wind up with a Trey Lance or Zach Wilson. You could also get a Jalen Hurts or a Josh Allen. But you have to take that chance. You're not going to get to that next level with what we got.

Again I don't disagree. The problem is, unless we're talking about the top few QBs who would be there and likely to go within the first 4-5 picks at worst, I'd guess that it would be more likely a QB selected would end up being no better than Mayfield is...not that I'm hoping for that.

But why stick with Baker? He’s not gonna get us anywhere. It’s worth going with a new qb and trying to go in a different direction. If it doesn’t work out, so be it. But you have to try. What we have in there now is a guy who would be a backup qb on a lot of teams. He’s not getting us to the next level. That’s clear as day.

[Snake]

The patriots are now slated to pick number two in the draft. 2-9 record.

Would they really be better off winning three more games and picking 10th?

[Four Verticals]

Again I don't disagree. The problem is, unless we're talking about the top few QBs who would be there and likely to go within the first 4-5 picks at worst, I'd guess that it would be more likely a QB selected would end up being no better than Mayfield is...not that I'm hoping for that.

But why stick with Baker? He’s not gonna get us anywhere. It’s worth going with a new qb and trying to go in a different direction. If it doesn’t work out, so be it. But you have to try. What we have in there now is a guy who would be a backup qb on a lot of teams. He’s not getting us to the next level. That’s clear as day.

I'm not looking to stick with Mayfield. I'm looking to get better. My point is that beyond the first couple of QBs who'll be gone by pick 5 likely, who do the Bucs draft who's definitively better than Mayfield.....in all likelihood? I'd say Williams and Maye. Beyond that I think it's a hope and/or we can all come up with flaws in their game/personality/makeup, etc.

[Navybuc]

But why stick with Baker? He’s not gonna get us anywhere. It’s worth going with a new qb and trying to go in a different direction. If it doesn’t work out, so be it. But you have to try. What we have in there now is a guy who would be a backup qb on a lot of teams. He’s not getting us to the next level. That’s clear as day.

I'm not looking to stick with Mayfield. I'm looking to get better. My point is that beyond the first couple of QBs who'll be gone by pick 5 likely, who do the Bucs draft who's definitively better than Mayfield.....in all likelihood? I'd say Williams and Maye. Beyond that I think it's a hope and/or we can all come up with flaws in their game/personality/makeup, etc.

There were flaws for guys like Hurts, Lamar Jackson, and of course, Brock Purdy. Hell, there were flaws for Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. I remember Mel Kiper saying those two are too inaccurate to make it in the NFL. Then we heard about how players like Josh Rosen and Trey Lance had no flaws and were sure-things. I hate to say it, but sometimes picking the right QB is like "The Dating Game." There are two ugly girls and a knockout and you hope you picked the prom queen. You've just got to do your homework, but most importantly, build around the guy. Look how the Texans have drafted well around C.J. Stroud. Tank Dell was a 3rd round pick and he's playing better than any 1st round pick selected. That dude was a steal.

If you're looking for names, you can start with Bo Nix, Michael Penix, Jayden Daniels, and J.J. McCarthy. Personally, I like Nix the most. I think he's the safest pick of guys who may be there. Daniels is a boom or bust. I've seen inconsistencies from Penix that worry me, like last week. And McCarthy is a lot like Purdy in that he's a great manager and perfect if you have great pieces around him, but not a guy who is going to beat you on his own. But that's just me. Everyone has their opinion.

The bottom line you have to rebuild this thing, and it starts with the QB. It's a pretty deep class coming out. Last year, I think the only guy I think we could have taken at our spot was Levis, and the jury is still out there. But it's more talented this year.

[BuccaNOLEer]

Will he be a hall of famer?

The Hall of Fame is your expectation for an elite can’t miss prospect?

He made four pro bowls in 7 seasons. He dragged a team that went 2-14 the year before he was drafted, to an 11-5 playoff berth, as a rookie. Four playoff appearances in 7 seasons. Most of those seasons with quite bad supporting casts.

Andrew Luck was an amazing draft pick, who panned out. Meanwhile, Doctor sucks Baker Mayfield’s dick (another #1 pick). Who is objectively mediocre and elevates no one.

Is Mario Williams also a #1 who didn’t pan out? He won’t make the hall. 97 sacks, 3x all pro.

There's a big difference between a star player and a Hall of Famer. You have to put up near all pro numbers consistently to make the Hall. That's why it's called the Hall of Fame, not the Hall of Good.

[Grahamburn]

Still only 1 game out for the division lead!

[acmillis]

Still only 1 game out for the division lead!

This feels like (I think it was) the year before Jameis. Up until week 14-15 or so, we were one game out of the division, and one game from the #1 overall pick.