IABL Predict The Score: Week 9, Tampa Bay at Houston, 5 November 2023

[Xandtar]

Hello again.

Welcome back to Predict The Score, the contest where sometimes you don't want to depend on a butchered Hail Mary to come through for your prediction... unless you do!

The season standings are as follows:
Week 1: Jonny, Predicted Bucs 20 Vikings 17, 0 points off. Whoa!
Week 2: Doooshnzl, Predicted Bucs 28, Bears 17, 1 point off, winning the tiebreaker over Kaimaru and Bootz (so close!)
Week 3: acmillis, Predicted Bucs 14 Eagles 26, 4 points off.
Week 4: Buc2, Predicted Bucs 23, Saints 13, 7 points off.
Week 6: Four Verticals, Predicted Bucs 10, Lions 24, 8 points off.
Week 7: No winner, as no one predicted a Bucs loss.
Week 8: Nobody, Predicted Bucs 16, Bills 24, 2 points off.

I really don't know much about the Texans except they're 3-4 and lost to the Kitties. Oh well, let's go anyway.

The first tiebreaker is percentage of 3rd downs converted by the Bucs. The second tiebreaker is percentage converted by the Texans.

----

I'll begin.

As I said, I don't know much about the Texans. I don't want to know, I just want the Bucs to win this game.

So with that, back to Bucball, baby.

Tampa Bay 13
Houston 10

Tampa 55% conversion, Houston 45%
and no, I don't know if these are realistic, oh well.

Your turn.

[acmillis]

Texans 19
Bucs 13

Bucs convert 31%
Texans convert 63%

[Phantom]

We’ll win in Houston! I guarantee it.

[Bahamian:bucfan]

BUCS 20
Houston 25

BUCS 33%
Houston 52%

[Jonny]

In my opinion, this is a "must perform" game for this offense and a must win for the Bucs. I'm going to have faith in our coaches, savvy veterans and Baker to at least bring this one home and look good in the process.

Bucs 31
Texans 17

Bucs 50%
Texans 50%

[13F11B]

Tampa Bay 17
Houston 27

Tampa 35% conversion, Houston 55%

[Babeinbucland]

Bucs rally just enough to give us hope and continue the trauma bonding

Tampa Bay 28
Houston 23

Tampa 60% conversion, Houston 40%

[TonyLip]

Bucs 17
Texans 16

Bucs 33%
Texans 35%

[kaimaru]

@Xandtar I didn't know either, but I was looking at that stat and Philly is converting on 56.76% of third downs on the road which is a whopping 10% better than the next team, and only 36.84% at home which 24th for home teams. It appears even they don't like to play at the Linc.

Bucs 24
Texans 16

Bucs 44%
Texans 54%

[Xandtar]

@Xandtar I didn't know either, but I was looking at that stat and Philly is converting on 56.76% of third downs on the road which is a whopping 10% better than the next team, and only 36.84% at home which 24th for home teams. It appears even they don't like to play at the Linc.

Bucs 24
Texans 16

Bucs 44%
Texans 54%

I got bored with passing yards, rushing yards by players X, Y, or Z as a tiebreaker. So I'm trying for strange but verifiable tiebreakers from the box scores... anyone got any for next week?

[13F11B]

@Xandtar I didn't know either, but I was looking at that stat and Philly is converting on 56.76% of third downs on the road which is a whopping 10% better than the next team, and only 36.84% at home which 24th for home teams. It appears even they don't like to play at the Linc.

Bucs 24
Texans 16

Bucs 44%
Texans 54%

I got bored with passing yards, rushing yards by players X, Y, or Z as a tiebreaker. So I'm trying for strange but verifiable tiebreakers from the box scores... anyone got any for next week?

How many times I complain about a penalty in the game?

[Xandtar]

I got bored with passing yards, rushing yards by players X, Y, or Z as a tiebreaker. So I'm trying for strange but verifiable tiebreakers from the box scores... anyone got any for next week?

How many times I complain about a penalty in the game?

Alas, unmeasurably high for this contest. Just like how many times we'll curse the coaches for a bad decision in the gameday discussion.

[Doctor]

Bucs 19
Texans 16

40%
45%

[Cheb]

@Xandtar I didn't know either, but I was looking at that stat and Philly is converting on 56.76% of third downs on the road which is a whopping 10% better than the next team, and only 36.84% at home which 24th for home teams. It appears even they don't like to play at the Linc.

Bucs 24
Texans 16

Bucs 44%
Texans 54%

I got bored with passing yards, rushing yards by players X, Y, or Z as a tiebreaker. So I'm trying for strange but verifiable tiebreakers from the box scores... anyone got any for next week?

Total tackles by well-known defender X and Y, one from each team. Total sacks by both teams or each individually. Rushing or passing attempts by team. Length of the furthest field goal made or attempted. Total punts.

A few ideas, at least.

[Nobody]

Bucs 20
Texans 16

Bucs 47%
Houston 42%

EDIT: Switching this up after injury report and Houston’s decimated OL

[Babeinbucland]

@Xandtar I didn't know either, but I was looking at that stat and Philly is converting on 56.76% of third downs on the road which is a whopping 10% better than the next team, and only 36.84% at home which 24th for home teams. It appears even they don't like to play at the Linc.

Bucs 24
Texans 16

Bucs 44%
Texans 54%

I got bored with passing yards, rushing yards by players X, Y, or Z as a tiebreaker. So I'm trying for strange but verifiable tiebreakers from the box scores... anyone got any for next week?

Longest pass completion

[13F11B]

I am not feeling good about this game. Though I did predict a win originally.

[njdungeoneer]

Bucs D holds up:

Bucs: 15

Tex's" 14

Bucs: 44%

Tex's: 40%

Go Bucs!

[Jonny]

I am not feeling good about this game. Though I did predict a win originally.

I'm with you. I'm predicting an offensive explosion and a big time win, only because I have a feeling heads will roll if they lose this one. I hope we don't see a typical Todd Bowles coached team with no sense of urgency, soft zones, no pass rush and erratic QB play from the guy with "moxie".

[bucarican]

Bucs - 31

Houston - 19

BUCS 65%
Texans 36%

[CannonFire]

Houston 20
Bucs 16

Bucs - 37%
Houston - 42%

[13F11B]

Texans 36%

No way the Buccaneers defense manages this unless all Houston's QBs are out due to an unspecified illness and they are forced to use their punter as an emergency QB.

[Buc2]

Bucs 17
Texans 23

Bucs 38%
Texans 58%

[Kress]

Bucs 27
Texans 23

Bucs 35%
Texans 42%

[kaimaru]

Texans 36%

No way the Buccaneers defense manages this unless all Houston's QBs are out due to an unspecified illness and they are forced to use their punter as an emergency QB.

Even if ebola hits everyone in the QB, the emergency QB breaks a leg jumping off a roof into the pool the night before, and they just decide to Dameon Pierce as QB, Singletary and Boone as HB/FB and run the option all game, they would still have convert 50% of the time the way our defense has run defended some games

[bucarican]

Texans 36%

No way the Buccaneers defense manages this unless all Houston's QBs are out due to an unspecified illness and they are forced to use their punter as an emergency QB.

have faith that Todd uses man press

[Bootz]

Bucs 24
Texans 20

Bucs 53.8%
Texans 42.8%

[13F11B]

No way the Buccaneers defense manages this unless all Houston's QBs are out due to an unspecified illness and they are forced to use their punter as an emergency QB.

have faith that Todd uses man press

Coupled with the worse blitz in the NFL.

[Buccabeer]

This is a must win game for the Bucs....

Bucs 20
Texans 17

Bucs 41%
Texans 39%

[Moozician]

Bucs 13
Texans 30

bucs 18%
Houston 32%

[Onthebrink]

23-19 Houston 37% Houston 31% TB

[Terry Tate]

bucs 17
Texans 14
Bucs 60%
Texans 50%

Both of these teams have solid defenses. I don't expect a lot of scoring unless one of them somehow discovers some new wrinkle to make their offense work in a way it hasn't before.

[GreatTimes]

Before the season started, this is one of the games Vegas had the Bucs winning. Baker does just enough to keep his job.
Bucs 24
Texans 17
Bucs 55%
Texans 45%

[Selmon Rules]

24-17 good guys

We convert 25%, they convert 35%

We just hold on defense when it counts

[mdb1958]

45 to 0 Bucs.