Defensive Discussion

[13F11B]

Several on the board objected to my saying this defense sucks. Let us have a real conversation about the defense. This is not about the offense nor the special teams. Just defense.

My premise.
The defense is a bend, but not break defense. Due to this it puts the offense and team in a bad spot to win the game given the way Todd Bowles likes to run his offense. (ie., a relatively low-risk offense that needs to play with the lead vs. a high-risk, high-reward offense).

Points allowed: Tampa ranks #13 the 128 points allowed
Yards per play: Tampa ranks #24 allowing 5.5 yards per play
Plays against: Tampa ranks #24 with 454 plays against
Takeaways: Tampa ranks #2 with 14 takeaways
1st downs allowed: Tampa ranks #24 for the number of 1st downs allowed
Penalties: Tampa ranks 16th for number of penalties
Penalty Yards: Tampa ranks 19th for total penalty yards
Scoring percentage: Tampa ranks #14 for scoring percentage

So, yes during the game I am exaggerating when I say the defense sucks. The reality is the defense is not good. It is average to below average.

[acmillis]

That first "bullet" about total points is apples to oranges as teams have played different amounts of games, so here's the real stat that matters. We allow 18.3 ppg, which puts us at 7th Best in the league. We have forced the 2nd most turnovers in the league which you highlighted.

Not sure if it was you or not, but I had the same "conversation" after last week's game with an OP. Sure we suck on third down and give up a lot of first downs, but you know what we don't do? We don't allow the opponent to score a lot. I'll take the YARDS YARDS YARDS instead of the giving up points, but that's just me.

[Bootz]

@13F11B has gone full LUGZ. You never go full LUGZ.

[13F11B]

That first "bullet" about total points is apples to oranges as teams have played different amounts of games, so here's the real stat that matters.

You are correct. That might make it worse for the Buccaneers since they have already had their bye week.

[13F11B]

@13F11B has gone full LUGZ. You never go full LUGZ.

I see you have made your token attempt to contribute to an actual discussion. Next insult gets reported.

[Snake]

I think it’s a good, not great defense. Lacks edge rushers. Devin White playing hurt has seemingly neutered whatever he used to provide insofar as splash too.

I expect them to end 10-12 in the league in points allowed if they continue to stay healthy overall.

[GreatTimes]

Acmillis wrote : We have forced the 2nd most turnovers in the league. You would think that having forced the 2nd most turnovers in the league that the Bucs would have a better record. The Bucs offense is not capitalizing on those turnovers.

[Backside]

If JTS and Hall were hits I think we'd be terrorizing QBs and everything would come together. Not the case however, so QB pressure is inconsistent at best. Secondary has some players but also some bums. It's bend don't break, and hope for splash plays from our special players, AWJ is an absolute stud, I'm no safety expert, but he's the best in the league.

I's definitely not a defense that can carry a below average offense to any real success.

[acmillis]

That first "bullet" about total points is apples to oranges as teams have played different amounts of games, so here's the real stat that matters.

You are correct. That might make it worse for the Buccaneers since they have already had their bye week.

You musta nota read the rest of that sentence, chief.

[njdungeoneer]

I would agree that the defense has been bend and not break(too much).
Unless it is third down then they break a lot.
Low scoring and high turnovers usually has a defense helping to win games, but not for the Bucs with their offense.
Devin White has no business being on the field weekly since about the second week. He has completely disappeared from having any positive impact on any defensive play. If he is injured, sit him down. If he isn't interested in playing, sit him down. Whatever is going on, sit him down.

[13F11B]

I would agree that the defense has been bend and not break(too much).
Unless it is third down then they break a lot.
Low scoring and high turnovers usually has a defense helping to win games, but not for the Bucs with their offense.
Devin White has no business being on the field weekly since about the second week. He has completely disappeared from having any positive impact on any defensive play. If he is injured, sit him down. If he isn't interested in playing, sit him down. Whatever is going on, sit him down.

Exactly. This defense is a perfect compliment to an efficient offense that is high scoring.

[acmillis]

I would agree that the defense has been bend and not break(too much).
Unless it is third down then they break a lot.
Low scoring and high turnovers usually has a defense helping to win games, but not for the Bucs with their offense.
Devin White has no business being on the field weekly since about the second week. He has completely disappeared from having any positive impact on any defensive play. If he is injured, sit him down. If he isn't interested in playing, sit him down. Whatever is going on, sit him down.

Exactly. This defense is a perfect compliment to an efficient offense that is high scoring.

Just....no. Men lie, women lie, numbers don't. If our offense averaged 19 PPG.... Change your "high scoring" comment to "competent" and you're good.

[13F11B]

Exactly. This defense is a perfect compliment to an efficient offense that is high scoring.

Just....no. Men lie, women lie, numbers don't. If our offense averaged 19 PPG.... Change your "high scoring" comment to "competent" and you're good.

Statistics can be twisted. Using PPG as the only meaningful stats is not sufficient to evaluate the defense.

[acmillis]

Just....no. Men lie, women lie, numbers don't. If our offense averaged 19 PPG.... Change your "high scoring" comment to "competent" and you're good.

Statistics can be twisted. Using PPG as the only meaningful stats is not sufficient to evaluate the defense.

But you saying that our offense needs to be "high scoring" is factually inaccurate. If we had the 21st highest scoring offense this season, we'd average more than we give up. I would not consider the 21st O in PPG "high scoring."

[13F11B]

Statistics can be twisted. Using PPG as the only meaningful stats is not sufficient to evaluate the defense.

But you saying that our offense needs to be "high scoring" is factually inaccurate. If we had the 21st highest scoring offense this season, we'd average more than we give up. I would not consider the 21st O in PPG "high scoring."

No. I said this defense compliments a high-scoring offense. This defense does not complement our current offense. Our current offense does not do with bad starting field position. Holding an opponent to a FG results in being behind and starting at the 25 or worse. If this defense could give up less yardage, force a few more 3 and out drives the team would be better overall. That is what I am trying to say. They are, despite some outlier great stats, a mediocre defense that does not compliment Bowles professed style of offense.

[uscbucsfan1]

But you saying that our offense needs to be "high scoring" is factually inaccurate. If we had the 21st highest scoring offense this season, we'd average more than we give up. I would not consider the 21st O in PPG "high scoring."

No. I said this defense compliments a high-scoring offense. This defense does not complement our current offense. Our current offense does not do with bad starting field position. Holding an opponent to a FG results in being behind and starting at the 25 or worse. If this defense could give up less yardage, force a few more 3 and out drives the team would be better overall. That is what I am trying to say. They are, despite some outlier great stats, a mediocre defense that does not compliment Bowles professed style of offense.

We need a historically great defense to support this offense.

The defense is good (I'd even accept average), not great. A comment I said in the game thread and you freaked out that it's terrible. Saying it's bad, sucks, terrible is where people call you Lugz and you lose credibility in the discussion.

By definition it's not terrible. Our greatest defenses were bend, don't break. If you prevent scoring but give up a lot of yards, that's still achieving the goal. It's just a bad take to say that our D is terrible and why we are losing when no facts support that.

It would be great to have a great run D, LBers who are good against the run, interior push, and a consistent pass rush, but when we score 18 points and people compliment the offense, then shit on the defense...it's just irrational.

You said twice that points given up are the point you are making...but that's the only real relevant metric. If the D gave up 1,000 yards per game, but only 3 points, we'd be considered an all-time great Defense. "They just shut things down/cause turnovers, it's amazing".

No one has said we have a GREAT defense, but it's good. It suffers from the repeated 3 and outs and Bowles has seemingly never been great getting off the field on 3rd downs consistently. That's fine if the opposition isn't scoring.

[Cheb]

Through 7 games, we have allowed more than 20 points twice (vs the Eagles and Bills). That should be enough to win games, and yet we aren't winning them. Indeed, the average offense in the NFL scores about 22 points per game, right between the Rams and Packers. If the Bucs had a middle of the road scoring offense and put up 22 points a game, they would be 5-2 at this point in the season.

But this is a thread about the defense, so let's talk defense. Over the last three games, the passing defense has collapsed. True, they haven't allowed a lot of points, but check these numbers. The Bucs have over their last three games (all losses) allowed 80 completions on 113 passing attempts for a 71% completion percentage, 927 passing yards allowed, and four touchdowns against just one interception.

What does that mean? It means that that level of play extrapolated out to a full season's worth of play would make this one of the worst passing defenses of all time. Indeed, the Bucs would set records for highest completion percentage ever allowed at 71% (current record is 70.0%, set by the 2019 Cardinals), as well as the most passing yards allowed in NFL history (current record 4988 by the 2011 Packers, Bucs would be on-pace for 5253 yards).

Now why is this happening? Like many defensive issues, it's multi-factorial. At least to my eye, we are allowing far too many balls to be completed underneath by receivers who are running routes versus air. We insist on playing 7-on-7 and we are getting eaten alive, and it's doubly frustrating because of how we chose to allocate our team resources.

We are currently paying our starting cornerbacks the fifth and seventh highest salaries on the team this year, and next year they are going to combine for a whopping $34 million in earnings. Yet Bowles insists that we just drop them into soft zones in off-coverage, which is not what you pay elite cornerbacks to do. This stems from Bowles' larger philosophical shifts over time. He builds and drafts a defense built around man-coverage and blitzing, then morphs to soft zones over time. I for one do not understand why Bowles insisted on doing this, but I also don't understand why he does alot of things so I guess I will be perpetually frustrated.

Don't get me wrong, the pass rush ain't helping. We don't have a dominant force on the defensive line who is winning their matchups consistently. We have a gaggle of guys who occasionally spark a flash, but nobody we can consistently count on to win a pass rush. I would overall put our pass rush as solidly average.

Another issue with the Bucs defense is we allow the worst third down conversion percentage in the NFL at 50.5%. Again, a multifactorial problem, mostly soft pass coverage with off-corners combined with a pass rush that keeps nobody up at night.

---

I like bend-but-don't break stratagems. Depending on my athletes on a year-to-year basis, sometimes it's my own bread and butter on my teams. My favorite DC of all time, Mr Monte Kiffin, bent all the damn time. But Monte also mandated that cornerbacks contest receivers and their routes, which threw off route and play timings while slowing down receivers getting into their stems, which gave Sapp and his friends that extra half second to get into the backfield to harass the quarterback, which sped up QB's internal clocks and forced quick checkdowns, which made the jobs of those contesting cornerbacks all the easier because they didn't have to cover for as long, and because most everyone's eyes were on the ball which allowed for outstanding pursuit by seven dudes we could rally to the football prior to the offense crossing the first down marker and thereby actually get motherfuckers off the field.

But all that falls apart when you don't contest routes imo. And we don't. Consistently. It frustrates the hell outta me.

I mean, I get Bowles strategy somewhat. If you don't trust your backend coverage to hold up or your passrushers to get to the QB in time to rush the play or both, selecting "die slowly" as a defensive strategy makes some sense. Hope the offense fucks up or one of your defenders pulls a play outta his ass. It's certainly the more conservative route, as opposed to trying something daring to make a splash play to force a longer down/distance to get off the field. I've done it myself. But it's not a way to win, just a way to not lose as badly.

---

I feel I'm ranting and shall step off my soapbox. Good thread.

[GreatTimes]

The Bucs, mostly inept offense hurts our defense. Too many short drives by the offense makes the defense be on the field more than they should.

[Cheb]

The Bucs, mostly inept offense hurts our defense. Too many short drives by the offense makes the defense be on the field more than they should.

It doesn't help the defense when the offense is bad for sure, but Baker Mayfield and his offensive buddies aren't forcing our defense to allow the worst third-down conversion percentage in the NFL. That's entirely on the D.

[Selmon Rules]

I'm tired of seeing the CBs 10 yards off the line on a 3rd and 5. Seems to me that they should be either pressing and disrupting or at least close enough to stop the receiver short of the first down after they catch it

[Jonny]

Through 7 games, we have allowed more than 20 points twice (vs the Eagles and Bills). That should be enough to win games, and yet we aren't winning them. Indeed, the average offense in the NFL scores about 22 points per game, right between the Rams and Packers. If the Bucs had a middle of the road scoring offense and put up 22 points a game, they would be 5-2 at this point in the season.

But this is a thread about the defense, so let's talk defense. Over the last three games, the passing defense has collapsed. True, they haven't allowed a lot of points, but check these numbers. The Bucs have over their last three games (all losses) allowed 80 completions on 113 passing attempts for a 71% completion percentage, 927 passing yards allowed, and four touchdowns against just one interception.

What does that mean? It means that that level of play extrapolated out to a full season's worth of play would make this one of the worst passing defenses of all time. Indeed, the Bucs would set records for highest completion percentage ever allowed at 71% (current record is 70.0%, set by the 2019 Cardinals), as well as the most passing yards allowed in NFL history (current record 4988 by the 2011 Packers, Bucs would be on-pace for 5253 yards).

Now why is this happening? Like many defensive issues, it's multi-factorial. At least to my eye, we are allowing far too many balls to be completed underneath by receivers who are running routes versus air. We insist on playing 7-on-7 and we are getting eaten alive, and it's doubly frustrating because of how we chose to allocate our team resources.

We are currently paying our starting cornerbacks the fifth and seventh highest salaries on the team this year, and next year they are going to combine for a whopping $34 million in earnings. Yet Bowles insists that we just drop them into soft zones in off-coverage, which is not what you pay elite cornerbacks to do. This stems from Bowles' larger philosophical shifts over time. He builds and drafts a defense built around man-coverage and blitzing, then morphs to soft zones over time. I for one do not understand why Bowles insisted on doing this, but I also don't understand why he does alot of things so I guess I will be perpetually frustrated.

Don't get me wrong, the pass rush ain't helping. We don't have a dominant force on the defensive line who is winning their matchups consistently. We have a gaggle of guys who occasionally spark a flash, but nobody we can consistently count on to win a pass rush. I would overall put our pass rush as solidly average.

Another issue with the Bucs defense is we allow the worst third down conversion percentage in the NFL at 50.5%. Again, a multifactorial problem, mostly soft pass coverage with off-corners combined with a pass rush that keeps nobody up at night.

---

I like bend-but-don't break stratagems. Depending on my athletes on a year-to-year basis, sometimes it's my own bread and butter on my teams. My favorite DC of all time, Mr Monte Kiffin, bent all the damn time. But Monte also mandated that cornerbacks contest receivers and their routes, which threw off route and play timings while slowing down receivers getting into their stems, which gave Sapp and his friends that extra half second to get into the backfield to harass the quarterback, which sped up QB's internal clocks and forced quick checkdowns, which made the jobs of those contesting cornerbacks all the easier because they didn't have to cover for as long, and because most everyone's eyes were on the ball which allowed for outstanding pursuit by seven dudes we could rally to the football prior to the offense crossing the first down marker and thereby actually get motherfuckers off the field.

But all that falls apart when you don't contest routes imo. And we don't. Consistently. It frustrates the hell outta me.

I mean, I get Bowles strategy somewhat. If you don't trust your backend coverage to hold up or your passrushers to get to the QB in time to rush the play or both, selecting "die slowly" as a defensive strategy makes some sense. Hope the offense fucks up or one of your defenders pulls a play outta his ass. It's certainly the more conservative route, as opposed to trying something daring to make a splash play to force a longer down/distance to get off the field. I've done it myself. But it's not a way to win, just a way to not lose as badly.

---

I feel I'm ranting and shall step off my soapbox. Good thread.

Thank you. I'm starting to feel the same vibes as @13F11B about Bowles after reading this post.

[Miller4Prez64]

I'm tired of seeing the CBs 10 yards off the line on a 3rd and 5. Seems to me that they should be either pressing and disrupting or at least close enough to stop the receiver short of the first down after they catch it

All the more reason that it was insane that we paid Dean in the offseason instead of trying to address the offense.

[mdb1958]

Do they do a chart for team d-lines that can beat one on ones? On 3rd down we cant stop them with a 4 man rush - 3 man rush - or any combination of blitzes - so they/we play it safe and hope for turnovers till it gets down to our #1 redzone defense.

I don't even see where we have replaced Roches. The more the OLB's try for a sack, the more times containment is lost on runs and passes. Our defense compliments Vea about as good as our special teams compliment Camarda.

We were playing better when our money making CB's were out. Bowles is hoping for a spark of execution and the only option he has left is to offer back ups the chance to suddenly excel.

I said before the draft that we have to make our 4 man rush work.

[mdb1958]

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/positional/breakdown/

[Al Bundy]

I think it’s a good, not great defense. Lacks edge rushers. Devin White playing hurt has seemingly neutered whatever he used to provide insofar as splash too.

I expect them to end 10-12 in the league in points allowed if they continue to stay healthy overall.

White isn't injured. He isn't trying most of the time.

[13F11B]

Panthers win. Wow. Next week will be interesting.

[Babeinbucland]

Panthers win. Wow. Next week will be interesting.

And they move from last place into better last place.

[Doctor]

This defense feast on fear and famine and they have been totally started this year. On the complimentary front, our offense has done nothing to make opponents feel any pressure to keep pace. Nor have they done their own to put them under much duress.

[Buc2]

This offense feast on fear and famine and they have been totally started this year. On the complimentary front, our offense has done nothing to make opponents feel any pressure to keep pace. Nor have they done their own to put them under much duress.

Um, what? Please translate this, Doc.

[Onthebrink]

This offense feast on fear and famine and they have been totally started this year. On the complimentary front, our offense has done nothing to make opponents feel any pressure to keep pace. Nor have they done their own to put them under much duress.

Um, what? Please translate this, Doc.

LOL

[Nobody]

2023 defensive stats:

* 1st Redzone TD % (27.27)
* 3rd Takeaways PG (2 per)
* 6th PPG (18.3 per)
* 13th DVOA
* 17th Sacks (18)
* 24th Y/Att Passing (7 per)
* 26th Y/Game Total (354.6 per)
* 32nd 3rd down conversion (50.51 %)

++++++++++++++++++

Totally weird collection of stats. That DVOA rating looks about right overall given it corrects for context. We're right around 13th in the league in defense and bottom quartile in offense.

Not a good football team.

[Buc2]

2023 defensive stats:

* 1st Redzone TD % (27.27)
* 3rd Takeaways PG (2 per)
* 6th PPG (18.3 per)
* 13th DVOA
* 17th Sacks (18)
* 24th Y/Att Passing (7 per)
* 26th Y/Game Total (354.6 per)
* 32nd 3rd down conversion (50.51 %)

++++++++++++++++++

Totally weird collection of stats. That DVOA rating looks about right overall given it corrects for context. We're right around 13th in the league in defense and bottom quartile in offense.

Not a good football team.

Verifies what all our eyes can see. Except @Doctor.

[Doctor]

This offense feast on fear and famine and they have been totally started this year. On the complimentary front, our offense has done nothing to make opponents feel any pressure to keep pace. Nor have they done their own to put them under much duress.

Um, what? Please translate this, Doc.

*defense

This defense was highly complimentary to the Arians offense and vice versa. They were a self feeding cycle where explosive plays kept pressure high which cause defensive take aways which gave our offense short fields for more points, round and round.

That wheel isn't spinning much right now. And there's plenty of blame on both sides as the defense has been full of "almosts" are year and can't close things out for themselves. And we've gone over all the ways the offense hasn't been doing the defense any favors, under sung is how no one worries about giving us the ball back.

[Buc2]

Um, what? Please translate this, Doc.

*defense

This defense was highly complimentary to the Arians offense and vice versa. They were a self feeding cycle where explosive plays kept pressure high which cause defensive take aways which gave our offense short fields for more points, round and round.

That wheel isn't spinning much right now. And there's plenty of blame on both sides as the defense has been full of "almosts" are year and can't close things out for themselves. And we've gone over all the ways the offense hasn't been doing the defense any favors, under sung is how no one worries about giving us the ball back.

This 'sober' version was much easier to understand.

[kaimaru]

I'm tired of seeing the CBs 10 yards off the line on a 3rd and 5. Seems to me that they should be either pressing and disrupting or at least close enough to stop the receiver short of the first down after they catch it

According to Bowles we only have two corners good at man. If they have more than 2 WRs, we will always be in zone. One of the reasons Winfield was playing the slot so much was so we could go man with 3 receiver sets. I am not sure if Izien is good in man. I mean, it can't be worse than DW making the wrong choice or abandoning him responsibilities in zone, ie. allowing Pitts to go by him when the QB is still more than 5 yards behind the line and 15 yards from you