Hall of Fame Locks, and those making their case

[Snake]

Will include recent retirees and current FAs. Will try to post as these come to me.

QBs Locks:

Patrick Mahomes
Aaron Rodgers
Russell Wilson
Tom Brady
Ben Roethlisberger
Drew Brees

Young QBs who have demonstrated top NFL ability, but a lot of work to do:

Lamar Jackson
Josh Allen
Joe Burrow
Jalen Hurts
Trevor Lawrence
Kyler Murray

QB Wildcard:

Deshaun Watson - Hard to see the voters ever putting him in. but if he rattles off a couple MVP seasons...

Eli Manning - I really don't want to get into this. but I see both sides of the argument.

**********************

Offensive Skill Position Locks:

Julio Jones (WR) - 2014-2019 for Julio stack up with some of the best runs in the modern era. The yearly pedestrian TD numbers are odd, but his dominance is universally acknowledged. 1800 yards in a single season (16 games), 1677 in another, 1593 in another. When the wheels fell off at 30 y/o, they fell off hard. But his reputation is intact, and the stories of his dominance have been chronicled in places like the Player's Tribune. He's 150 yards away from being #15 all-time in receiving yards.

Travis Kelce (TE) - 8 straight pro bowls, 4 all-pro, 2x super bowl champ. 71% catch percentage (that's good). Never hurt. #47 in all-time receiving yards as a TE.

Gronk (TE) - Nuff said.

Adrian Peterson (RB) - Nuff said.

Offensive Skill players who are close:

Mike Evans - his peak isn't really recognized as being elite. I think another consecutive 1000 yard season gets him to at least coin flip territory, though. That's 10 straight, plus a handful of probowls, and a ring. It comes down to how long Mike wants to hang off, if we believe his day of accruing voter-based accolades is over. If he plays another 3-4 seasons and accrues another 3000 yards, that gets him in the top 20 all time. That, plus the aforementioned stuff, likely gets him in. Being part of the TB12 legacy really did him a solid.

Tyreke Hill - 7 pro bowls, renowned game breaking ability. But he's only 96th all time in receiving yards + some off-the-field controversy. the only players lower on the all-time receiving list that are in the HOF are RBs, and guys who played like 40 years ago. Tyreke has more work to do. The peak is there, the accolades are there, the winning is there. Just need to accumulate some more stats and retire at 32 y/o!

Davante Adams - Getting tired of typing about WRs. but suffice to say, he's almost there. Peaked higher than Evans, big time TD producer, 6 pro bowls, 3 all pros. Just needs a couple more seasons of production to lock in the counting stats and he's there. He also produced fantastically away from Rodgers.

Derrick Henry - Is he close? IDK. he's averaging over 13 TDs the last five seasons. and he's been a lock to rush for 100+ yards a game the last few seasons, as well. I think he's 2-3 more dominant seasons away from lock status. Couple more pro bowls, maybe an MVP. If healthy, he will lead the league in rushing attempts. he's entering his age 29 season. approaching the performance cliff for running backs. he will need to be the exception to the rule to accumulate a couple more dominant seasons + general stats.

Offensive skill players wild cards

DeAndre Hopkins - Narrative is important. DeAndre Hopkins' narrative went from could-be-the-best-WR-in-the-NFL, to steroid-using-malcontent-who has-only-played-19-games-in-the-last-two-seasons. He's 31 next season. He's currently rostered on a disaster of a team. His total production isn't far off from Mike Evans' when you look at the careers in their entirety, but Mike's been a consummate teammate, professional, and now a winner. If Hopkins can't get his footing this season, one has to be concerned about how this is trending. The peak is there. he needs to stack up some more production and change the narrative.

Antonio Brown (WR) - Antonio is an idiot, but a lot of reporters actually like him. incredible talent and producer. he's like Terrell Owens, but has actually hurt people. quitting on the field and walking off is the NFL bad PR equivalent of executing a golden retriever puppy on national TV, as far as NFL circles go.

Frank Gore (RB) - I see both sides of the argument. 3rd all time in rushing yards...the ultimate accumulator. Peaked fast and early in his career. Then just sort of held his own as a good RB. Only cracked double digit rushing TDs once. 16 year NFL career. he's 15 yards away from 20000 rushing + receiving in his career, which is 4th all time. Only has 46 fumbles in like 4300 touches. Fascinating player. I'd vote yes, personally. There's a novelty here in playing 16 years and being good for almost all of it, at a position where most guys are done by 27-28.

[Doctor]

You need Eli. You cannot tell the story of the NFL without Eli. You can't leave out the ending of 18-0. And the rest of his numbers are comparable to Elway so it's not like you are putting in a lucky duck.

Gore too. Gore is eternal. Simply incredible. Don't buy into the narrative that there is only one way to make the HoF and it excludes compilers. Absolutely not. Gore embodies the NFL. To think he tore both his ACLs in college too.

AB is tough. As is Hopkins. Both of which, imo, were better than Julio Jones pound for pound. I think the ring (combined with 5 years of clear #1 dominance) does enough to put AB over, and the lack of one and a lack of a "second act" from Hopkins may be enough to keep him out. Hopkins is still behind Andre Johnson who is not in.

Henry still isn't there yet, a lot will depend on his second act. But if he retired today, I don't think he gets in.

[Bootz]

Mike Evans is such a Pewter colored glasses pick. I could see him having a Lynch or Barber type wait, if he ever gets in.

Hopkins absolutely gets in. PEDs aren't as frowned upon in football as they are in baseball because it's assumed most NFL players used them back in the day.

AB gets in as well.

No chance the 3rd leading rusher in league history is left out.

[GreatTimes]

If Mike Evans had the same stats playing for the NY Giants or NE Patriots he would be a shoe in. The national press just doesn't mention Mike Evans at all.

[Doctor]

Mike Evans is still only 29, he's not even on his second act yet, and has a lot left to write.

His biggest claim is keeping the 1k streak alive. No WR has ever had all 1k+ seasons throughout a career as far as I know. That's a great resume topper.

His PR team needs to pump the hell out of "WRs Chasing The Mike Evans Mile Marker" each year after he retires and have all these young guys listed under to keep the hype alive.

2030- Chasing the Mike Evans Marker (13):
Justin Jefferson (11)
Ja'Marr Chase (10)
Jaylen Waddle (10)
etc

And then take off guys as they miss out. Keep it as something cool for young WRs to strive for and try to break. When a rookie hits 1k announce how they are "now in the Mike Evans race". And when they start getting close the kid will get all the hype, sure, but Mike Evans name will be said again and again and again.

[Deja Entendu]

Mike Evans is such a Pewter colored glasses pick. I could see him having a Lynch or Barber type wait, if he ever gets in.

Hopkins absolutely gets in. PEDs aren't as frowned upon in football as they are in baseball because it's assumed most NFL players used them back in the day.

AB gets in as well.

No chance the 3rd leading rusher in league history is left out.

I love Hopkins and he’s deserved all of the acclaim he’s received, but Evans has had the better career thus far… and no off the field questions. If you think Hopkins is a lock, then Mike should be too.

Evans will also have Brady lobbying for him.

[Sdbucs]

Average HoF WR:

Yards:11,532
Tds: 90
Games: 189

Mike Evans:

Yards: 10,425
Tds: 81
Games: 137

So Evans has 52 more games to amass 1,107 yards and 9 TDs to meet HoF WR average. He has a superbowl ring. He has produced no matter the QB throwing to him.

His TD/game is #12 all time for WR. 6 of the 11 WRs higher than him are HoF and 2/11 could sniff the HoF:

Randy Moss
Terrell Owens
Art Powell
Marvin Harrison
Davante Adams
Jerry Rice
Dez Bryant
Lance Alworth
Calvin Johnson
Mike Quick
Mike Evans


Why is he not regarded more highly than he is?

[Doctor]

The knock on Evans is similar to that on Gore. That are probably no point are you saying he is the clear cut #1 WR in the league. Which is fine, but some people choose to regard that as a must-check box.

[Four Verticals]

What I read nationally with Mike is that he's known more for his battles with Lattimore than the production of his career. I think that's going to hurt although its possible that the voters (writers) don't think along those lines.

[uscbucsfan1]

The knock on Evans is similar to that on Gore. That are probably no point are you saying he is the clear cut #1 WR in the league. Which is fine, but some people choose to regard that as a must-check box.

Pretty much this.

We've gone through this numerous times over the years. He's been 2nd team all-pro once (Hopkins has 5 All-Pro teams in the same period) and routinely is left off the top 10 list of WRs among writers.

That's about as bad as David being left off, but even worse than David...Mike is said to be easily shutdown and frustrated to an exaggerated point. It also seems everyone remembers Evans' dropped ball streak a few years ago and wants to point that. It's just a condition of playing in Tampa.

To the Adams/Evans comparisons...yes, they are close, but the tape shows Adams is better. He commands far more double teams (Evans is rarely in the top 10 doubled WRs at any point in his career where Adams is almost routinely top 3), but they are absolutely comparable despite what non-Buc fans state.

It seems only Buc fans point out that Evans had Winston, Glennon, and McCown for a long period.

I think Evans is borderline and obviously closer than 2 years ago when we had this same conversation. I'd actually put him over Hopkins now, which I didn't 2 years ago.

Edit: Looking around the internet, it seems most think Hopkins will get in.

[uscbucsfan1]

I think Wilson has a chance to play himself out of being a lock if he continues his play from last year. He did play in an era of great QBs, but only has 1 All-Pro team and was rarely a top 5 QB.

Also, If we just go on stats, Matt Ryan is a lock...stats don't tell the whole story for any position.

Lastly, I think Rivers and Eli get in and I don't think either were actual HoF QBs, but they have media love and Eli has his NFL lore. I wouldn't vote for either.

[Doctor]

Brady has skewed the picture but Wilson is old... these are his twilight years and they should suck by expectations. I don't think he can play himself out of the Hall. Let alone if Ryan "is a lock".

I would take Hopkins over Evans on the field every day of the week. But it's not enough to have been better or more talented, you need to actually produce. Bo Jackson isn't in the Hall.

If Mike Evans can reproduce just his worst year ever (1001 yards, 5 TDs) over the next 4 years, he'll finish Top 10 in Rec yards and Rec TDs, and have the mile marker. Again, he's 29.

[uscbucsfan1]

Brady has skewed the picture but Wilson is old... these are his twilight years and they should suck by expectations. I don't think he can play himself out of the Hall. Let alone if Ryan "is a lock".

He's 34. That's pretty young to be hitting a wall, no?

No one said Ryan is a lock. He'll finish top 10 in yards and TDs. Just being in the top 10 with stats shouldn't make you a lock for the HoF. I was saying stats don't tell the entire story and using him as an example.

Rivers is even higher on the all-time yards/TDs list.

[Doctor]

We use to start talking about "looking for the QBOTF" when a QB was over 30 so they can be groomed for a few years and be ready when we put the QB in hospice at 34.
A "study" by Pro Football Focus found that the average age at which quarterbacks begin to decline is 32.5 years old.
Sure, new rules and all that have extended it a lot for guys, getting hit less and all that. But the game still passes some guys by sooner than others.

[Snake]

Brady has skewed the picture but Wilson is old... these are his twilight years and they should suck by expectations. I don't think he can play himself out of the Hall. Let alone if Ryan "is a lock".

He's 34. That's pretty young to be hitting a wall, no?

No one said Ryan is a lock. He'll finish top 10 in yards and TDs. I was saying stats don't tell the entire story and using him as an example.

Right. Accolades, reputation, eye test, accomplishments matter. As do stats. I see stats as a sort of entry barrier. Matt Ryan has certainly produced the overall VOLUME necessary to be part of the conversation. but that's it is, part of the conversation.

I think Matt Ryan mastered being in that range of #7-#10 best QB in the league for a long time. and he even peaked as MVP in 2016 when everything went right and he stopped turning the ball over. He did great in that playoff run too. 9 TDs, 0 picks in 3 games. The rest of his playoff career? 11 TDs, 7 INTs. Those stats don't tell the complete story, but he's 2-5 outside of 2016.

Otherwise what is his career? No super bowl wins, roughly a 2-1 TD/INT ratio, 120-102 career record in ATL.

Philip Rivers-y. Good QBs, at times great QBs, but more often just good.

[Snake]

We use to start talking about "looking for the QBOTF" when a QB was over 30 so they can be groomed for a few years and be ready when we put the QB in hospice at 34.

A "study" by Pro Football Focus found that the average age at which quarterbacks begin to decline is 32.5 years old.
Sure, new rules and all that have extended it a lot for guys, getting hit less and all that. But the game still passes some guys by sooner than others.

We like PFF again?

Anyways, Wilson is an interesting case. We all know he can throw an amazing deep ball (like GOAT level) and it one of the better pocket QBs out there when the lanes are open. But his elite play is dependent on his reaction time, kinesthetic sense, and unorthodox movement. "Athleticism" stuff. certainly subject to decline faster than something like throwing strength or accuracy.

I'm in wait-and-see with Wilson. Would it really surprise anyone if he was a top 5 MVP guy next season with Sean Payton at the helm? Wouldn't surprise me. I’m leaning towards he has a lot of good football left.

[Deja Entendu]

Agreed Wilson is wait and see, and that it’ll most likely depend on what he does with Payton.

No doubt that Eli is getting in.

I hope Ben never does.

Matt Ryan shouldn’t need to pay for a ticket to the HOF, but definitely should only be there as a guest.

Other than the 28-3 footnote of course!

I think Philip Rivers was a better QB than all of them besides Prime Russ. He could just never get it done though, and that will most likely keep him out.

[Bootz]

Love how Russell Wilson is "wait and see" while a guy who was twice accused of sexual assault and even suspended for it is a "lock" to get in.....But it's "hard to see" another QB accused of sexual assault getting in...


....All the while a guy who was suspended for PEDs is somehow a "wildcard" and another guy who may not in

[uscbucsfan1]

Love how Russell Wilson is "wait and see" while a guy who was twice accused of sexual assault and even suspended for it is a "lock" to get in.....But it's "hard to see" another QB accused of sexual assault getting in...


....All the while a guy who was suspended for PEDs is somehow a "wildcard" and another guy who may not in

I think you know that none of that stuff really matters much especially the PED stuff in the NFL.

The league and writers/talking heads completely ignore the Big Ben stuff.

[Snake]

sigh...

Love how Russell Wilson is "wait and see"

It's wait-and-see to see if he's washed or just had a down year amid coaching turmoil.

while a guy who was twice accused of sexual assault and even suspended for it is a "lock" to get in...

Ben Roethlisberger's allegations took place in 2009-10. #MeToo didn't go viral until 2017. Right or wrong, the cancellation boat missed Big Ben. It was also 2 accusations. Not 20+. Maybe Watson can win an MVP or two, win a ring, and leave this sexual assault BS behind and ten years from now and no one cares. It's a different climate. and he's sucked since returning.

....All the while a guy who was suspended for PEDs is somehow a "wildcard" and another guy who may not in

Let's be real, most of the NFL is on steroids. The vast majority aren't stupid enough to get caught. Hopkins was stupid enough to get caught, while reports begin to surface about him not being a good teammate. And missing games. It's about narrative. Right or wrong, narrative, momentum, and all that stuff plays a part. He has plenty of time to right the ship though.

[Deja Entendu]

Love how Russell Wilson is "wait and see" while a guy who was twice accused of sexual assault and even suspended for it is a "lock" to get in.....But it's "hard to see" another QB accused of sexual assault getting in...


....All the while a guy who was suspended for PEDs is somehow a "wildcard" and another guy who may not in

I think you know that none of that stuff really matters much especially the PED stuff in the NFL.

The league and writers/talking heads completely ignore the Big Ben stuff.

Which is a shame. Dude is scum.

[Bootz]

sigh...

Love how Russell Wilson is "wait and see"

It's wait-and-see to see if he's washed or just had a down year amid coaching turmoil.

while a guy who was twice accused of sexual assault and even suspended for it is a "lock" to get in...

Ben Roethlisberger's allegations took place in 2009-10. #MeToo didn't go viral until 2017. Right or wrong, the cancellation boat missed Big Ben. It was also 2 accusations. Not 20+. Maybe Watson can win an MVP or two, win a ring, and leave this sexual assault BS behind and ten years from now and no one cares. It's a different climate. and he's sucked since returning.

....All the while a guy who was suspended for PEDs is somehow a "wildcard" and another guy who may not in

Let's be real, most of the NFL is on steroids. The vast majority aren't stupid enough to get caught. Hopkins was stupid enough to get caught, while reports begin to surface about him not being a good teammate. And missing games. It's about narrative. Right or wrong, narrative, momentum, and all that stuff plays a part. He has plenty of time to right the ship though.

Keep showing us who you are, kiddo

[Snake]

You’re confusing what I want to happen with what I think will happen

[Doctor]

We use to start talking about "looking for the QBOTF" when a QB was over 30 so they can be groomed for a few years and be ready when we put the QB in hospice at 34.

A "study" by Pro Football Focus found that the average age at which quarterbacks begin to decline is 32.5 years old.
Sure, new rules and all that have extended it a lot for guys, getting hit less and all that. But the game still passes some guys by sooner than others.

We like PFF again?

Note the air quotes.