Questions about players, scheme, going in 2023 season

[Snake]

Just how good is Rachaad White?

I think most here are high on Rachaad. I think One Buccaneer Place is too. The team added a UDFA RB (albeit a talented one), and a depth #3/4 RB in free agency. Let Fournette go - who, by the way, is still sitting on his couch waiting for a deal. Clearing the way for White to take #1 RB job.

White should benefit from a scheme change, and hopefully an offensive line that goes from bottom barrel in the run game to at least middling.

SI has R. White as the 25th RB, and ESPN has him 23rd, in the fantasy RB rankings. Now, that may speak more to the state of the offense overall and teams keying in on the run game with HEEHEE and Trasilisk at QB. I would have Rachaad a bit higher. I recall there was a point in his CFB career where Rachaad White was the only player with a 90+ grade as a receiver and as a rusher. A true dual threat, he should get great volume. Hope they actually make some holes for him this season...

Here's a link to every target and run that White had as a rookie. 20 min video. youtube

JTS or JAG?

Joe Tryon-Shoyinka had an inconsistent season as the team’s top pass rusher. While the pressure rate was fine, there was little done off of it.

Tryon-Shoyinka only converted 8.7% of his pressures and 28.6% of quarterback hits into sacks, both well below the league average rates.

He has the size, length, athleticism. He only turned 24 one week ago. Big year for him.

Personally, I'm not a believer. I see a freak athlete whose athleticism jumps off the screen at times, but totally lacking great football it-factor. Whatever that is.

Antoine Winfield Jr, 20/20 club trajectory?

AWJ has 9 sacks through 3 NFL seasons (42 games). He has 4 INTs.

Health has been AWJ's biggest ding thus far in his NFL career. He missed 18 games during 4 years in college, and 3 games in each of his last two NFL seasons.

The sacks seem like a lock if he and Bowles stick around. Gotta get the INT numbers up. but, there's an outside shot here! Get those picks!

Does Mike Evans revert to Old Mike with Brady's departure?

14.4
14.0
14.6

^ Mike's yards per reception during the Brady years.

17.7
17.3

^ Mike's yards per reception the two years preceding Brady (1 yr of Koetter, 1 yr of Arians).

it's really the same old Mike, in a different environment.

Mike's catch% went up 8-10% upon Brady's arrival. He produced less yards per reception with Brady, but his overall yards per target went UP. He became more efficient.

Oh and the 1000 yards thing.

[Buc2]

I have no idea how these guys will ultimately play out. But, I'd like to think they will all be successful this coming season and also achieve the goals you listed.

Evans: I think he'll be okay regardless of which QB is throwing the ball to him.

R. White: I liked what little we saw of him last year, but I have no clue if he can be a #1 until he is or isn't.

JTS: I'm just as disappointed as everyone with his development thus far. But he's still young and, as you said, has all the tools to succeed. It just needs to happen in his brain I think. If so, I think he'll get better.

[Snake]

21 Personnel

Buccaneers ranked last in 21 personnel usage in 2022. 0% of the time. Well, tied for last with 4 other teams.

21 personnel: two RBs, one TE, and two WRs.

Dolphins and 49ers ran this a lot last season. Like 40+% of the time. Not a surprise, given the HC's connection.

Example:

► Show Spoiler

Think we'll see any of this? Maybe get Kieft back in there at H-back/FB? Or maybe have Tucker and White out there on either side of QB1, out of shotgun?

► Show Spoiler

More likely we'll see more...

12 Personnel

12 personnel: one RB, two TEs, and two WRs

► Show Spoiler

Seahawks led the league in this formation. 40% of the time. Given our OC's connection, I think this is likely.

Maybe the new TE, and Otton to create some looks?

Bucs ran this 26% of the time in 2022. 15th in NFL.

[Bootz]

White: I'm a fan. But I think he's inching towards being a bit overrated. He'll have the opportunity to show more consistency going forward so that's good for him. But fact remains he only averaged 3.7/carry and wasn't very good on 3rd downs.

JTS: Didn't like the pick to begin with. He's in that OJ Howard, Quincy Black mold. Looks the part but doesn't have the acumen to be a good football player.

AWJ: He won't reach 20/20 status. Doesn't get the picks. 1-2/year so far. He's never been a ball hawk. Covers a lot of safety value type routes and blitz quite a bit.

Evans: Unknown. Hard to know how he'll be used in this offense and hard to know the chemistry he'll have with Baker.

[Primeminister]

21 Personnel

Buccaneers ranked last in 21 personnel usage in 2022. 0% of the time. Well, tied for last with 4 other teams.

21 personnel: two RBs, one TE, and two WRs.

Dolphins and 49ers ran this a lot last season. Like 40+% of the time. Not a surprise, given the HC's connection.

Example:

► Show Spoiler

Think we'll see any of this? Maybe get Kieft back in there at H-back/FB? Or maybe have Tucker and White out there on either side of QB1, out of shotgun?

► Show Spoiler

More likely we'll see more...

12 Personnel

12 personnel: one RB, two TEs, and two WRs

► Show Spoiler

Seahawks led the league in this formation. 40% of the time. Given our OC's connection, I think this is likely.

Maybe the new TE, and Otton to create some looks?

Bucs ran this 26% of the time in 2022. 15th in NFL.

I’m curious what primary personnel the Browns ran during Baker’s playoff year. If OBP is truly high on Baker then they likely want to put him back in the situation that made him successful: lean on the run game with Baker supporting it.

[Snake]

21 Personnel

Buccaneers ranked last in 21 personnel usage in 2022. 0% of the time. Well, tied for last with 4 other teams.

21 personnel: two RBs, one TE, and two WRs.

Dolphins and 49ers ran this a lot last season. Like 40+% of the time. Not a surprise, given the HC's connection.

Example:

► Show Spoiler

Think we'll see any of this? Maybe get Kieft back in there at H-back/FB? Or maybe have Tucker and White out there on either side of QB1, out of shotgun?

► Show Spoiler

More likely we'll see more...

12 Personnel

12 personnel: one RB, two TEs, and two WRs

► Show Spoiler

Seahawks led the league in this formation. 40% of the time. Given our OC's connection, I think this is likely.

Maybe the new TE, and Otton to create some looks?

Bucs ran this 26% of the time in 2022. 15th in NFL.

I’m curious what primary personnel the Browns ran during Baker’s playoff year. If OBP is truly high on Baker then they likely want to put him back in the situation that made him successful: lean on the run game with Baker supporting it.

2020 Browns on 1st down

11 personnel - 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR - 33% (27th in NFL)
12 personnel - 1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR - 27% (12th in NFL)
13 personnel - 1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR - 18% (1st in NFL)
21 personnel - 2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR - 10% (12th in NFL)
22 personnel - 2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR - 9% (5th in NFL)

Singleback - 51% - 3rd in NFL
Shotgun - 18% - 29th in NFL
I-Form - 24% - 5th in NFL

Targeted positions by QB

WR - 53% - 27th in NFL
TE - 29% - 3rd in NFL
RB - 16% - 24th in NFL

Run direction

Left - 52%
Right - 48%

Rushing by gap

Guard - 44% - 3rd in NFL
Tackle - 34% - 12th in NFL
End - 21% - 31st in NFL

[Bootz]

21 Personnel

Buccaneers ranked last in 21 personnel usage in 2022. 0% of the time. Well, tied for last with 4 other teams.

21 personnel: two RBs, one TE, and two WRs.

Dolphins and 49ers ran this a lot last season. Like 40+% of the time. Not a surprise, given the HC's connection.

Example:

► Show Spoiler

Think we'll see any of this? Maybe get Kieft back in there at H-back/FB? Or maybe have Tucker and White out there on either side of QB1, out of shotgun?

► Show Spoiler

More likely we'll see more...

12 Personnel

12 personnel: one RB, two TEs, and two WRs

► Show Spoiler

Seahawks led the league in this formation. 40% of the time. Given our OC's connection, I think this is likely.

Maybe the new TE, and Otton to create some looks?

Bucs ran this 26% of the time in 2022. 15th in NFL.

I’m curious what primary personnel the Browns ran during Baker’s playoff year. If OBP is truly high on Baker then they likely want to put him back in the situation that made him successful: lean on the run game with Baker supporting it.

Buc ball amplified.

They ran a ton of tight formations, didn't spread it much. Multiple TE & RB formations. Leaned heavily on the run game. It honestly was nothing special. And he had a very healthy and electric Odell Beckham Jr, Jarvis Landry to throw to.

The problem is that Oline IIRC had 3 or 4 All-Pros. We're not sniffing that here.

[Snake]

They had 2 or more TEs on the field more than half the time.

[Nobody]

I’m curious what primary personnel the Browns ran during Baker’s playoff year. If OBP is truly high on Baker then they likely want to put him back in the situation that made him successful: lean on the run game with Baker supporting it.

Buc ball amplified.

They ran a ton of tight formations, didn't spread it much. Multiple TE & RB formations. Leaned heavily on the run game. It honestly was nothing special. And he had a very healthy and electric Odell Beckham Jr, Jarvis Landry to throw to.

The problem is that Oline IIRC had 3 or 4 All-Pros. We're not sniffing that here.

Yup.

In 2021, Cleveland had the #1 DVOA OL and not by a little.

Mayfield was terrible in 2021 despite that.

When they were successful, they manufactured offense via their fantastic OL and the two-headed monstrosity of Forced Missed Tackles at RB. They stayed ahead of down and distance, converted a lot of easy offense, and kept Mayfield out of high leverage situations on the whole.

Baker has a lot of weird passing splits in 2021:

* He’s wasn’t good on schedule. His inside 2.5 second Time to Throw Passer Rating was # 19 in the NFL.

* His 2.5 TTT or more was # 32 so he was terrible when he had tons of time and/or off schedule.

* His play-action Passer Rating wasn’t good; # 18 in the NFL (again, showing that the ability to dominate running the football is decoupled from play-action success).


He wasn’t good anywhere despite a dominant OL.

Baker’s good year (2020) saw him having considerable success on play-action but nowhere else.

What signal do you routinely see in both his tape and his metrics:

A QB with an extremely high % of Responsibility for QB Pressures. This stat shows up for two player archetypes:

* QBs that don’t process well presnap and/or are slow/poor read progression passers.

* QBs that willingly go off schedule (whether they’re productive there or not).

Historically, Mayfield is both of these players (and he hasn’t been productive off schedule).

[Onthebrink]

I’m curious what primary personnel the Browns ran during Baker’s playoff year. If OBP is truly high on Baker then they likely want to put him back in the situation that made him successful: lean on the run game with Baker supporting it.

Buc ball amplified.

They ran a ton of tight formations, didn't spread it much. Multiple TE & RB formations. Leaned heavily on the run game. It honestly was nothing special. And he had a very healthy and electric Odell Beckham Jr, Jarvis Landry to throw to.

The problem is that Oline IIRC had 3 or 4 All-Pros. We're not sniffing that here.

Beckham tore his ACL in week 7 and didn't play another game. Their line was not just the best run blocking team that season. They were the highest in pass blocking per PFF. Bitonio, Conklin and Teller were all-pro.

[Nobody]

The best hope we have offensively is the following:

* Jensen can perform the explosive lateral responsibilities of a Center in an Outside Zone scheme (TBD), Goedeke/Hainesy /White ascend, Wirfs makes the transition to LT so the Outside Zone suite that will be the offensive foundation works.

* Canales manufactures a lot of easy, 1-read Rolling Pocket throws for the QB on 1st down to get to 2nd down and Med/Short at a high rate.

* The play-action game looks like A&M with Mike Big Boying DBs (without OPI) on chuck-and-duck Fade/9 routes.

* The misdirection game off Outside Zone generates explosives and easy Boot pick-ups on the ground or Shallow Cross or TE on Slide route under the formation after a Split Zone run fake, especially on 1st down.

* Godwin’s ability to dominate RAC returns, while White, Gage, Otton, Durham also give us something in the Screen game.

* The defense generates a gang of Turnovers and short fields (unlike last year).

[Grahamburn]

Should be gravy.

[mdb1958]

Can anybody identify the competition Licht created in this draft? I understand we dropped a long way after our third pick - I have to ask myself, was there a lot of players that said they didnt want to play for us - without saying it.

[Nobody]

Going to use your thread if that's alright @Snake to just do a quick look at the way I see the state of each positional group presently as it intersects with my projection of scheme. Going to do this in two parts as I don't have time for both. Offense first and, note, these grades are for THIS YEAR ONLY (not the future):

QB

As I mentioned above, Baker Mayfield's career does not entail much in the way of evidence for a positive difference-maker at the QB position. He's shown both pre and post snap processing deficiencies. He finds pressure rather than finding ways to minimize/resolve it. He's not been a regular playmaker on schedule or off. He's not succeeded despite being in a situation with one of the best OLs and running games in the league. This is not a resume that holds future promise.

Year 3 Kyle Trask is a complete unknown in terms of actual NFL football player. Projecting based on what little we have to project upon doesn't trend toward positive difference-maker at the QB position.

The general hope here is that Canales can manufacture offense through 1 read throws on early downs and that the Outside Zone + boot + misdirection + play-action scheme can minimize errors and maximize opportunities to keep the football and capitalize on opportunities in short fields.

GRADE: D-

RB

I'm higher on Raschad White than most around here it would seem. Balance-through-contact, vision, one-cut-explosiveness are the traits you need to be a capable Zone runner and he showed them in college and he showed them last year. This is despite playing behind the #28 FBO Offensive Line in the NFL...that earned that rating despite a QB that saved them from an absolute avalanche of negative plays. If this OL wasn't saved from all of those potential negative plays via QBing? They would have been buried at #32 in the league. And their running game metrics (Open Field Yards, Stuffed Rank, Power Rank) are all absolute bottom-feeders. This was a horrendous OL last year. Just horrendous. It showed on tape. It showed in the metrics. White's 3.7 YPC was a function of that, not a function of poor vision or going down on first contact or lack of forced missed tackles in the open field or lack of yards after contact. He's an easy receiver of the football, a capable route runner, a player that forces missed tackles in the open field after catch. Needs to clean up some Pass Pro, but that is the case with most every (though not all) rookie RBs.

Chase Edmonds is your typical, 2nd contract, JAG NFL RB. Not a great pass protector, not a horrific liability, can catch the football, no pop but can do the things. Typical depth.

Ke'shawn Vaughn is the same as Edmonds except some fumble and drop issues and better balance through contact in the open field. Depth with lack of reliability.

Sean Tucker has a fair amount of Zone experience as a runner but his Forced Missed Tackles and his Yards After Contact aren't where you'd want (37th and 41st out of 53 qualifying RBs with 170 or more carries). We'll see.

GRADE: C- (overwhelmingly on my sense that last year's horror show on the OL might be mitigated this year by scheme and White can take advantage of that...if that doesn't work out, this grade plummets).

WR

Mike Evans hasn't shown signs of slowing down and his skillset should translate even into the twilight of his career. He'll need to win a lot of deep, contested throws this year. I would anticipate his production dropping as an outgrowth of QBing + scheme + the reality that Mike has shied away from Big Boying DBs on deep plays because refs have called him for both real and phantom OPIs over the last 8 years due to his size/physicality (the type of separation-generating antics that lesser physical/sized WRs routinely get away with), but he should still be an intermediate to deep threat. Huge asset in the running game (which we'll rely upon).

I would again anticipate Chris Godwin getting the bulk of targets due to a lot of them being manufactured touches on 1-Read, Rolling Pocket concepts, Screens/Smokes, and hefty looks on Bootlegs via Slide routes under the formation after motion and Shallow Crosses. If he can get back to being as dangerous after-the-catch as he has been historically (I think he will), I would anticipate a very productive year for Chris. Like Mike, a huge asset in the running game (which we'll rely upon).

Discount Godwin, Russell Gage is going to be a high dollar, low target player in this offense because we're going to rely on the running game. However, it wouldn't surprise me if he ended up with a startling number of targets relative to Mike's (as Mike's drops). It really depends on how much Mike Big Boys people at the catch point early in the year and how comfortable whichever QB is playing feels with Mike dominating reliably.

Deven Thompkins and Trey Palmer will be manufactured touch players with some looks on 9 routes and double moves (although they both better improve their double move route-running or this will be a big nothingburger in terms of production/threat) on play-action (which this offense featured in the past). Low number of opportunities for both of these guys on Jet Action plays (whether hand-offs, fakery + Screen the other way) or fake Smoke/Tunnel/Bubble Screens with them climbing and running Wheel routes. Situational players which might end up with a big play or three if things go right during the season.

GRADE: B (would be an A with the amplifying factor of elite QBing, but assets that are beholden to QBing have to have attached "QB coefficient.")

TE

Cade Otton and Payne Durham are very similar players/prospects. They don't dominate anywhere, but they can do most/all of the things expected from a prototypical Y Tight End and not embarrass themselves. Both show some promise after the catch as well. Functional blockers in-line and move, but certainly not dominators/assets that you scheme around. Otton did show some issues with drops/decision-making/and random catch-point softness last year. Year 2 needs to eliminate that.

Ko Kieft is a running game amplifier first, second, and third. He should be just fine with a switch to a predominant Outside Zone scheme as he's shown the ability to seek and destroy in space. If he's asked to do a ton of bucket stepping in-line and defeating Edge players in Outside Zone, he may very well have a problem. Use him appropriately, sneak him on some Slide routes after faking Split-Zone runs and manufacture some touches after using someone else as a decoy and he can give you a little bit in the passing game.

GRADE: C-

OL

Boy does this one get prickly to project. Lets get this out of the way. The Center position is extremely important and demanded of in an Outside Zone scheme. My lamenting not drafting Creed Humphrey a few years ago is amplified a million-fold now as he's not only probably the best Center in the league, but he's easily the best Outside Zone center in the league (and the best Outside Zone center prospect I've ever seen). A hobbled Ryan Jensen who has historically earned his living drive blocking in Duo/Inside Zone and Gap is now going to be asked to explosively get lateral out of his stance and seal iDLs. We'll see. It wouldn't surprise me terribly if he struggles a lot and there are some in-house, behind-closed-doors questions about inserting Hainsey at the position (whose skill set is much, much better suited for an Outside Zone Center).

2 x All Pro RT (could have been 3) Tristan Wirfs transitioning to LT. This isn't as easy as a lot of people hope. You have to rewire your brain, your body, and your brain-body connection. If anyone can do it though, its a freakish athlete like Wirfs with his huge commitment to his craft and great processing/understanding of concepts. The switch to an Outside Zone dominant scheme shouldn't hurt Wirfs at all. Iowa ran enough Outside Zone and his movement skills and few Outside Zone snaps in the NFL have been exemplary.

As to the rest of this group? Who knows. Nike Leverett filled in very admirably at LG, but (a) he was protected in Pass Pro on a number of ocassions by a QB getting the football out extraordinarily quickly and (b) this was a Duo/Inside Zone and Gap offense last year. Who knows. Robert Hainsey is one of the few iOL players that I don't feel too uncomfortable about. He is absolutely NOT a Duo/Inside Zone/Gap iOL. He doesn't remotely have the physical chops for that job. But as an Outside Zone player? I can absolutely see a ceiling of functional to + iOL coming to fruition; solid movement skills, technically sound on footwork/base/hands, and a solid processor. Hainsey's profile and tape last year projects much more promising in this offense than last year's offense. Luke Goedeke had solid snaps on the right side last year at the very end of the season...but, again, that was in an offense where he's Big on Big Drive blocking and doubling with TE's north-south with a lot of quick-setting Pass Pro. This is going to be an offense that demands a lot of lateral movement accompanied by technical soundness downstairs/base/up top. We'll see. He or Matt Feiler (sound enough vet player) will be manning RT almost surely. Crapshoot at this point. Cody Mauch is an athletically explosive prospect with movement skills, physicality, motor. Very little Outside Zone play in college. The technical skills required to play NFL Guard AND NFL Outside Zone Guard will have to be resolved before he sees the playing field. I have no clue as to the kid's football IQ, ability to understand and quickly operationalize concepts. If he's a derp, expect a year 1 Redshirt. If he's not a derp and things don't hang together with the rest of the iOL and/or there are injuries, he might play or be forced to play. TBD.

Given all of the unknowns, the injuries, Wirfs transition, the scheme change, the utter disaster of last year's unit? There is no way to grade this unit positively.

GRADE: (a very charitable) C- (Wirfs and Outside Zone being a better fit for Hainsey keeps this from a D)

[Nobody]

Going to look at Defense groups one at a time:

IDL

Don’t let the Sack numbers fool you. Vita Vea, who anchors this group, is coming off his worst season as a pro. He wasn’t even top 50 in iDL snaps. The top guys (also the best players) were approaching 180 % of his snaps. He has to play way more snaps than he did in 2022 and he has to maintain dominance and assignment soundness while doing so (which he did historically, but not last year). Going back to primary Nose should hopefully help. Dominate his A gap, collapse the apex of the pocket to prevent a climb, disrupt a pass play’s progression, and force a QB off his spot. This is going to be year 6. Need to see rush suite progression; more clean wins this year via Hump, Push/Pull, and Slap/Rip.

Calijah Kancey is a player archetype yet to be seen in a Bowles defense. Undersized for a Bowles DT, but crazy explosion, crazy bend, excellent balance and CoD, excellent motor, violent hands that are mature in usage, advanced rush suite, good snap anticipation. He should be a huge amplifier to the Twist/Loop/Stunt game and disrupt plays with individual effort.

Greg Gaines is a multi-tech, versatile player that will be our only real shot for light boxes on early downs without committing 2nd level players; but I’m rather dubious there. He wins via scrap and soundness, solid play strength/leverage and anchor. Typically, to get away with only 2 iDL Dime on early downs, you need 2 x physical dominators/mammoths. That isn’t Gaines. But he won’t hurt us at any of the iDL positions and is a toolsy Twist/Loop/Stunt player.

Logan Hall was bad last year. There is no sugar coating it. He’s apparently put on 20 lbs this year to play at 300. We’ll see. He didn’t win against singles nor hold up against doubles last year and it wasn’t just weight. It was all of it; pad level/leverage/anchor/base, hand violence and deployment, processing speed. His Win Rate in true pass situations gave us nothing. He needs to improve in every way (and by a lot) and show some rush suite development; at least a go-to and counter.

Pat O’Conner and Deadrin Seanat are just high motor depth that need to be assignment sound and contribute to the Pass Rush games subpackage snaps they’ll get to spell folks (which the extent of their ability to contribute). But you can be better or worse there, and both of those guys are solid players Picking or Looping.

This grade is based off the idea that Vea’s snaps end up somewhere back in the 600-750 range with a switch back to primary Nose responsibilities and Kancey gives us juice right off the bat. Its also throttled down for Hall as he will have to take a giant leap in play speed/motor, violence, leverage, rush suite in year 2…and the tape doesn’t support that optimism. No 2nd legit NT for light boxes on early downs also hurts this grade.

GRADE: B-

[BuccaNOLEer]

My lamenting not drafting Creed Humphrey a few years ago is amplified a million-fold now as he's not only probably the best Center in the league, but he's easily the best Outside Zone center in the league (and the best Outside Zone center prospect I've ever seen).

The sad thing is, the Bucs were getting ready to take him but the Chiefs, who were on a rampage to fix their O-Line grabbed him a pick earlier. A situation like that is where Licht needed to trade up. Not on day three of the draft in order to pick an undersized LB who doesn't have sideline to sideline range.

[Buc2]

My lamenting not drafting Creed Humphrey a few years ago is amplified a million-fold now as he's not only probably the best Center in the league, but he's easily the best Outside Zone center in the league (and the best Outside Zone center prospect I've ever seen).

The sad thing is, the Bucs were getting ready to take him but the Chiefs, who were on a rampage to fix their O-Line grabbed him a pick earlier. A situation like that is where Licht needed to trade up. Not on day three of the draft in order to pick an undersized LB who doesn't have sideline to sideline range.

Damn Licht for not updating his crystal ball with v8.3.6.25!

[Bootz]

The sad thing is, the Bucs were getting ready to take him but the Chiefs, who were on a rampage to fix their O-Line grabbed him a pick earlier. A situation like that is where Licht needed to trade up. Not on day three of the draft in order to pick an undersized LB who doesn't have sideline to sideline range.

Damn Licht for not updating his crystal ball with v8.3.6.25!

Honestly that would've been a time to do so. He's had no issues trading up for players like Ali Marpet, Alex Cappa, Luke Goedeke, Cody Mauch, Kendall Beckwith, MJ Stewart, Roberto Aguayo. Why not trade up for a D1 player who by all accounts had a 1st round grade?

That kinda speaks to Licht not having as keen a draft eye as people give him credit for.

[mdb1958]

More o-line obsession

[Grahamburn]

My guess would be they were 100% committed to taking Trask there, unfortunately, and therefore made no efforts to move up for Humphrey. They also already had Jensen.

[Bootz]

My guess would be they were 100% committed to taking Trask there, unfortunately, and therefore made no efforts to move up for Humphrey. They also already had Jensen.

Questionable draft strategy.

[Grahamburn]

My guess would be they were 100% committed to taking Trask there, unfortunately, and therefore made no efforts to move up for Humphrey. They also already had Jensen.

Questionable draft strategy.

We can certainly agree on that. For now.

[Doctor]

I love how other teams can have QB transition plans in place but we can't.

Let's see what Trask got.

[MJW]

I love how other teams can have QB transition plans in place but we can't.

Let's see what Trask got.

Trask WAS the plan. And even if they suspected after 2021 that he wasn't a good plan, we weren't going to devote any more resources to finding a new plan. We were all in. Plus, it's not like we eschewed a bunch of great options along the way. Desmond Ridder, I guess?

We could have had Levis. That's basically the only "What If?" I see from our QB draft strategy. If he ends up being great, we'll have egg on our face like almost the entire rest of the league.

[Nobody]

Isn’t that a pretty good confounder to a “Bucs build out their Big Board and stick to it in drafting BPA” claim, though?

I mean, there is no way in the world Trask would have been BPA on the Bucs Big Board over Humphrey…right? If he was…that is a different conversation, but also an interesting one.

Seems to me one of a few things happened:

* The Bucs had Humphrey high (higher than Trask) perhaps both in terms of future and present, wanted him, had intel he would fall so went with JTS over Humphrey rd 1, but then failed to predict the KC (who was desperate for iOL help) move up.”

* The Bucs (unbelievably) had Trask in the neighborhood of Humprey on their BB and would have been fine with either prospect…despite the reality that they were in the middle of a small SB window and Humphrey would have helped immediately with Trask sitting (the “learn from Brady” premise).

* The Bucs (unbelievably) had Trask higher than Humphrey.

———

All of those are “feels bad” but there is an ordering of the “feels baditude.”

[MJW]

Look, we all wish we'd picked Humphrey but almost the entire league passed on him twice. It happens.

I'm of the mindset that Trask was a good risk where he was picked. He showed some things his last year at UF. He had the tangibles Arians gravitates towards. It is what it is.

[Nobody]

Look, we all wish we'd picked Humphrey but almost the entire league passed on him twice. It happens.

I'm of the mindset that Trask was a good risk where he was picked. He showed some things his last year at UF. He had the tangibles Arians gravitates towards. It is what it is.

Which is an interesting conversation in my opinion. The conversation is (and I'm serious):

1) There is an amazing layer of social contagion and game theory that goes on behind the scenes (deking folks about Big Boards and prospects' relative positions et al) such that the entire league can fall prey to a massive bit of contrived suggestion in the vein of "Creed Humphrey will go late 2 at the earliest."

2) A large percentage of NFL Front Offices (despite all of their personnel and invested capital) are not very good at their jobs.

Creed Humphrey is the case study on this. Because he was the most obvious Home Run Center pick imaginable. Before the draft. Not after year 1. Before the draft, Humphrey was an easy 1st round prospect (and not a late one).

[Cheb]

Find someone who loves you like Nobody loves Creed Humphrey.

[Doctor]

Sometimes you fall in love with a guy. I'm still mad about not trading up for Vilma to then pass on Steven Jackson.

Don't get me started on Branch.

[Bootz]

I love how other teams can have QB transition plans in place but we can't.

Let's see what Trask got.

What I love is how traditionally and even recently most if not all QBs drafted within the 1st 2 days of the draft are their respective teams #2 QB at worst in their rookie year, 2nd year at the latest.....Except for Trask.

[Bootz]

Look, we all wish we'd picked Humphrey but almost the entire league passed on him twice. It happens.

I'm of the mindset that Trask was a good risk where he was picked. He showed some things his last year at UF. He had the tangibles Arians gravitates towards. It is what it is.

What he showed was he wasn't good enough to beat out Blaine Gabbert. And for all of the "but Tom Brady prefers a vet behind him" crowd, go look at his backups in New England kick rocks. That's a fictional story people here made up to coddle themselves.

[Grahamburn]

Find someone who loves you like Nobody loves Creed Humphrey.

He was all over him before that draft. Adamant.

He has been right on a ton of guys. Love you @Nobody

[Doctor]

How is it a fictional story? It's literally what the coaches said.
What the hell does NE have to do with Tampa? This whole "BuT NE dOeS iT tHiS wAy" stuff is stupid.

Also, outside of being blessed with the GOAT, clearly NE has no idea wtf it's doing at QB position. If you want to suck on their toes, that's on you.

[mdb1958]

Look, we all wish we'd picked Humphrey but almost the entire league passed on him twice. It happens.

I'm of the mindset that Trask was a good risk where he was picked. He showed some things his last year at UF. He had the tangibles Arians gravitates towards. It is what it is.

What he showed was he wasn't good enough to beat out Blaine Gabbert. And for all of the "but Tom Brady prefers a vet behind him" crowd, go look at his backups in New England kick rocks. That's a fictional story people here made up to coddle themselves.

He gets to beat out Blaine this year. Talk is cheap, mdb will wait to see things.

[mdb1958]

Might be a guess but Tom being here last year wasnt his overwhelming desire. Was it our biggest secret - who knows