Welcome Baker Mayfield

[mdb1958]

Lotta times paying more for them lets you pretend they're good enough - and it's almost always the thought process.

[Buc2]

Lotta times paying more for them lets you pretend they're good enough - and it's almost always the thought process.

You are one of the few posters here that I can instantly identify as the poster without ever looking at the username.

Something to be proud of, eh?

[mdb1958]

Lotta times paying more for them lets you pretend they're good enough - and it's almost always the thought process.

You are one of the few posters here that I can instantly identify as the poster without ever looking at the username.

Something to be proud of, eh?

Err, yes I'm proud of you.

[Grahamburn]

I don't know if I'd go that far, but I think our offense will be better than most here expect.

For one, no matter who wins the starting job, I would presume that the winner will have more stones in the pocket than Brady had. For all of his positive qualities, Brady last year was borderline terrified of being hit, and how fast he got out the ball was a byproduct of that. Indeed, that speed with getting the ball out was probably bad for the offense.

Defenses at the snap either expand or contract, depending on what they see. Versus passing concepts they spread out, versus run action they compress. When the ball is out that fast, usually to a checkdown because the primary read didn't win from the word go, the defense hasn't had time to expand much if at all, so they are allowed to swarm the short stuff. This is exactly how Kiffin's defense won us a Superbowl, by forcing short throws and then rallying to the ball. Brady getting antsy in clean pockets after 2.5 seconds made the opposing defenses' jobs considerably easier, imo.

If Baker or Trask can show courage under fire, giving Evans and Gage and Godwin and everyone else TIME to get open, then we are going to be pretty damn good.

I don't see our line being good enough to give our quarterbacks time to be effective, courage or not. And even if White and Otton are decent, our lack of depth at those positions will get exposed. Also, Godwin and Gage have missed significant time the last couple of years, so counting on a full season from our WR trio seems foolish. Unfortunately, we have absolutely nothing behind them.

Poor line. Poor depth. Replacement level quarterback. You can play the, "if this then that" game with every unit on every team. But like I said, if this wasn't the Bucs...if this was a team we don't care about, and someone told you this offensive unit, do you think you'd be predicting them to be sneaky good?

How do you see the line shaking out? Is this so bad? Two All-Pros. A first rounder, second rounder, and a third rounder.

19th overall
Goedeke? Stinnie?
Jensen
Hainsey
Wirfs

Or maybe they draft Bijan to address the RB depth to create a rather dynamic duo at that position and this is the line:

Wirfs
Stinnie
Jensen
Hainsey
Goedeke

Poor?

[acmillis]

I don't see our line being good enough to give our quarterbacks time to be effective, courage or not. And even if White and Otton are decent, our lack of depth at those positions will get exposed. Also, Godwin and Gage have missed significant time the last couple of years, so counting on a full season from our WR trio seems foolish. Unfortunately, we have absolutely nothing behind them.

Poor line. Poor depth. Replacement level quarterback. You can play the, "if this then that" game with every unit on every team. But like I said, if this wasn't the Bucs...if this was a team we don't care about, and someone told you this offensive unit, do you think you'd be predicting them to be sneaky good?

How do you see the line shaking out? Is this so bad? Two All-Pros. A first rounder, second rounder, and a third rounder.

19th overall
Goedeke? Stinnie?
Jensen
Hainsey
Wirfs

Or maybe they draft Bijan to address the RB depth to create a rather dynamic duo at that position and this is the line:

Wirfs
Stinnie
Jensen
Hainsey
Goedeke

Poor?

Besides Wirfs, who is the other all pro? Who cares where guys are drafted. Draft position does not equal quality.

[Grahamburn]

I thought Jensen had been an All-Pro. Looks like I was wrong. Getting him back should be seen as a positive, no?

If it doesn't matter where guys are drafted why do so many fans want to tank for higher picks?

Point is the investment in the line has been made. They didn't play particularly well last year. Smith was just downright bad. Goedeke struggled as a rookie making the small school leap. Can he be another Cappa? I thought Hainsey played well. If they add another player early they should be average at worst.

[acmillis]

I thought Jensen had been an All-Pro. Looks like I was wrong. Getting him back should be seen as a positive, no?

If it doesn't matter where guys are drafted why do so many fans want to tank for higher picks? Only "tanking" requests I've seen have been for a QB, and that has been by very few posters.

Point is the investment in the line has been made. They didn't play particularly well last year. Smith was just downright bad. Goedeke struggled as a rookie making the small school leap. Can he be another Cappa? I thought Hainsey played well. If they add another player early they should be average at worst.

If my aunt had wheels, she'd be a bike.

If Trask walks on water, he'll cover up bad O-line play.

Lots of ifs, ands, and buts.

I appreciate the optimism, but I'm not sure reality will not come down like a meteor on T-Rex's head come early October when we reveal we're hoping in one hand and shitting in the other.

[Deja Entendu]

I keep seeing that the Rams and McVay gave up on him. Unless I missed something, I don’t see that as the case at all.

He was brought in as a band aid until they got their guy back from injury. He was a FA and wants to start. That wasn’t happening there.

Even with the Panthers, he was their starter when he was healthy. The team was a dumpster fire and he asked for a release knowing he had better opportunities to showcase himself for the last few weeks. He wasn’t wrong, and I would imagine his time with McVay was good for his development.

The Browns definitely gave up on him.

That whole situation was weird and not handled great by anyone. They thought they were getting the rising star Deshaun Watson once was, and decided they didn’t care about his extended time away from the game or his personal problems. And they obviously REALLY didn’t care.

Anyway, I don’t think he’s a savior, but I like him and he has a ton of upside. He’s in an interesting situation with this team, and if things click with our new offense I think we also have a ton of upside.

I’m an eternal optimist, so I’m cautiously excited that we can surprise a lot of people… there’s also a LOT of off season left. As I said before, I do also realize that things could spiral. *shrug* welcome to the NFL.

[Doctor]

Besides Wirfs, who is the other all pro? Who cares where guys are drafted. Draft position does not equal quality.

I agree.
Now go tell draft forum acmillis and the rest who insist "We need to draft ___ or ___ positions in the first round"

[Snake]

Quarterbacks with a ton of upside don’t get a $4 million one-year deal aka <2% of the salary cap. If he did, one of these smart coaches - who had him in the room - would’ve paid him more.

He has a fantastic arm. But he’s small, he has limited second play and scrambling ability. He makes poor decisions and doesn’t see the field very well.

Trust me, I want to believe in him. But I know too much. It’s like watching your friend fall in love with the town whore.

“this time it will be different.”
“They just need a chance.”
“she’s not wrong, it was all the other guys who were wrong!”

[Doctor]

He's a competitor.
People sleeping on players having a rough start.

He came into the league the same year as Vita Vea.

Three different teams have seen him up close and given up on him. Two of them - Sean McVay and Kevin Stefanski - are known for working with quarterbacks.

The Browns gave up 3 1st round picks and $250 Mil Guaranteed to replace him.

The Panthers gave up on him to play Sam Darnold and PJ Walker.

You're going to have to do better than "He just needs more time."

I love these posts because it shows you just the kinds of bonkers inferences people use to be pessimistic.
"If Arians is such a good coach why didn't anyone else try to hire him?"
"There's a reason no one else signed Lenny"
"If he's so good why did 31 other teams pass on him?"
"He never beat Gabbert out for the #2 spot"


You realize that for your silly Sherlock Holmes jumps to be so... you are advocating for the brain trust of the Panther's front office right? You are saying that we should trust more in their opinions than the brain trust behind Palmer, Brady, Geno's second winds.... and that trust tells you to be pessimistic.

Let's not leave out the other two teams. Funny thing is if Bowles gave up that much to trade for a QB Silly Holmes types would be telling us it's a clear sign of him being desperate to save his job. Also, trying to use the volume of how much the Browns gave up is hilariously insincere. As if to say "they gave up THIS MUCH to get away from Baker suckage" as if them having traded less would be evidence of a smaller gap between the two players?

And that's the thing, there is a gap. Even if Kevin wasn't out here trying to save his job, on one hand, he has a QB who needs to have surgery and recovery on the other is a Watson. Watson is a shit person but can be an elite QB. And unless you have an established elite (which Baker is not) you take a swing at one... it's literally the lesson of the last two years.

Last, we get to McVay. The funny part is the brilliant McVay you are trying to recruit to your "evidence Baker sucks" side is actually a Baker fan!

For one, THE RAMS PICK UP BAKER FROM WAIVERS! That's right, not even as a FA, off of waivers. That is McVay and the Rams saying "Hey, I think the Browns and Panther's brain trusts who pessimistic Buc fans will cite as expert sources are actually dead wrong on the Baker guy".

So you have to choose who your expert witness is here, Rhule/Wilks or McVay? Because they are not on the same side. Heck, lots of rumors were swirling that Baker was tagged to take over the Rams from Stafford given an abrupt retirement. Stafford didn't retire.

“I think he’s a great competitor,” McVay said Sunday. “I really like the way that he’s gone about this. Really have enjoyed working with him. Very similar to what the temperature and tone’s been, looking forward to finishing this off the right way. But I can’t say enough about how impressed I’ve been with everything he’s done in such a short amount of time. He’s a stud.”


But Silly Holmes would have you believe that that's just bs lip service because if it was actually true they would just move on from Stafford to Baker and eat $111M in dead cap. And the fact that they didn't is now further, undeniable evidence that McVay thinks Baker is trash and thus we should be hopeless too.

[Grahamburn]

I thought Jensen had been an All-Pro. Looks like I was wrong. Getting him back should be seen as a positive, no?

If it doesn't matter where guys are drafted why do so many fans want to tank for higher picks? Only "tanking" requests I've seen have been for a QB, and that has been by very few posters.

Point is the investment in the line has been made. They didn't play particularly well last year. Smith was just downright bad. Goedeke struggled as a rookie making the small school leap. Can he be another Cappa? I thought Hainsey played well. If they add another player early they should be average at worst.

If my aunt had wheels, she'd be a bike.

If Trask walks on water, he'll cover up bad O-line play.

Lots of ifs, ands, and buts.

I appreciate the optimism, but I'm not sure reality will not come down like a meteor on T-Rex's head come early October when we reveal we're hoping in one hand and shitting in the other.

That's fine. There were a lot of "ifs" that had to go right for the 2020 team too.

[mdb1958]

We got the lowest payroll but we still need 32 players for camp.

[acmillis]

Besides Wirfs, who is the other all pro? Who cares where guys are drafted. Draft position does not equal quality.

I agree.
Now go tell draft forum acmillis and the rest who insist "We need to draft ___ or ___ positions in the first round"

As long as we don't draft a RB or TE in round 1 (ever), I'll be happy.

[mdb1958]

It's quite odd to me to spend the entire offseason not wanting to talk about defensive draft prospects. Lack of talking about our last six picks is perplexing too.

[Grahamburn]

It's quite odd to me to spend the entire offseason not wanting to talk about defensive draft prospects. Lack of talking about our last six picks is perplexing too.

In a thread about Baker Mayfield? Yes, I know who I'm replying to everyone.

[Deja Entendu]

Quarterbacks with a ton of upside don’t get a $4 million one-year deal aka <2% of the salary cap. If he did, one of these smart coaches - who had him in the room - would’ve paid him more.

Sure they do… when they also have a high risk factor.

Which smart coaches do you mean? The Browns brain trust?? The Panthers coaches who were fired mid year?

The only coach he’s played for that could really be considered smart at this point is Sean McVay, and he did sign him when he needed a QB. This off-season he didn’t need one.

Our new OC just worked wonders with Geno Smith (who it’s safe to say had less upside than Baker). Canales did it coaching along with Shane Walton, who is no doubt tight with McVay. I’m going to guess it didn’t take much for Canales to get McVay’s take on Baker before signing him… to go along with Bowles’ impression of him from scouting him a few years ago.

[Buc2]

I'm convinced. Super Bowl!

[Babeinbucland]

I'm convinced. Super Bowl!

Lots of wonderful colors between tanking and Super Bowl. I am predicting early -10-7 or better.

[Buc2]

I'm convinced. Super Bowl!

Lots of wonderful colors between tanking and Super Bowl. I am predicting early -10-7 or better.

Well, um, that was sarcasm, not a prediction.

[Doctor]

Yeah, I don't get the argument against "ifs".... literally everything is an if. When you argue for OT over RB in the first round, or for any player, it's all on the premise of IF that OT works out. If not it's all moot.

"IF Gronk comes back looking like old Gronk"
"IF AB can stay out of trouble long enough"
"IF the OL can stay healthy"
"IF Devin White steps up"
"IF we draft well"

These were all if's. These all happened.

Their Stockholm syndrome has them talking in circles. Did Brady have no other options or did he choose us because the REST of the team was good? So the same teams that all "passed on Brady" and were wrong are now once again the expert witnesses in the argument of "well if he was any good he wouldn't have gotten a $4M single year deal". Licht, Arians, and Canales have good eyes for QBs but somehow not.

[acmillis]

Yeah, I don't get the argument against "ifs".... literally everything is an if. When you argue for OT over RB in the first round, or for any player, it's all on the premise of IF that OT works out. If not it's all moot.

"IF Gronk comes back looking like old Gronk"
"IF AB can stay out of trouble long enough"
"IF the OL can stay healthy"
"IF Devin White steps up"
"IF we draft well"

These were all if's. These all happened.

Their Stockholm syndrome has them talking in circles. Did Brady have no other options or did he choose us because the REST of the team was good? So the same teams that all "passed on Brady" and were wrong are now once again the expert witnesses in the argument of "well if he was any good he wouldn't have gotten a $4M single year deal". Licht, Arians, and Canales have good eyes for QBs but somehow not.

Wrong thread, but no, it's not about the individual player (RB vs anything else in the draft), it is a philosophy that actually works (not taking a RB in round 1). I made a post months ago showing the YPC leaders this season and guess what.... based on the data, you're more likely to find a YPC average higher from an undrafted player than you are from a first round RB.

[Doctor]

Data is only as good as how you look at it.

What's America's #1 favorite pie?
Apple, of course!

How do we know know? Because for years sales of your standard 30" pie was lead by apple. So clearly apple is america's favorite pie right? Not so fast.

When we started selling 11" personal pies, apple wasn't #1 at all. Not even close. The reason being is that when buying a 30" pie you usually need to get something that most people agree on and it turns out Apple is actually most people's second choice. When given the option people will usually go for a non apple pie more often than not, in fact apple is somewhere around 4th/5th spot.

So it turns out of the asked a random person on the street what their favorite pie is the answer is likely NOT going to be apple.

Don't be so quick to blindly trust what you *think* the data is telling you.

[Buc2]

Yeah, I don't get the argument against "ifs".... literally everything is an if. When you argue for OT over RB in the first round, or for any player, it's all on the premise of IF that OT works out. If not it's all moot.

"IF Gronk comes back looking like old Gronk"
"IF AB can stay out of trouble long enough"
"IF the OL can stay healthy"
"IF Devin White steps up"
"IF we draft well"

These were all if's. These all happened.

Their Stockholm syndrome has them talking in circles. Did Brady have no other options or did he choose us because the REST of the team was good? So the same teams that all "passed on Brady" and were wrong are now once again the expert witnesses in the argument of "well if he was any good he wouldn't have gotten a $4M single year deal". Licht, Arians, and Canales have good eyes for QBs but somehow not.

Actually, Brady should be listed as an if as well. There were more than a few folks that thought his age had finally caught up with him after that last season in NE and didn't want the Bucs to "waste" the money on him.

[Doctor]

Oh he was definitely a BIG IF.
Let's not even get started on the IF he fits Arians systems, of which many were fully convinced was a resounding No.

[Buc2]

Oh he was definitely a BIG IF.
Let's not even get started on the IF he fits Arians systems, of which many were fully convinced was a resounding No.

Even I said I thought we should pass and he should retire because he had nothing left to prove. Oops!

[acmillis]

Data is only as good as how you look at it.

What's America's #1 favorite pie?
Apple, of course!

How do we know know? Because for years sales of your standard 30" pie was lead by apple. So clearly apple is america's favorite pie right? Not so fast.

When we started selling 11" personal pies, apple wasn't #1 at all. Not even close. The reason being is that when buying a 30" pie you usually need to get something that most people agree on and it turns out Apple is actually most people's second choice. When given the option people will usually go for a non apple pie more often than not, in fact apple is somewhere around 4th/5th spot.

So it turns out of the asked a random person on the street what their favorite pie is the answer is likely NOT going to be apple.

Don't be so quick to blindly trust what you *think* the data is telling you.

What in the mdb did you just type?!?!? Drafting a RB high and/or paying a RB a big contract has historically been bad business no matter how you look at the data....I think that should be my response to your pie novel, but I'm really not sure what your point was.

[Doctor]

LOL

Sorry, that was just an example to say be careful on how much confidence you have in what you are inferring from data. In fact, we often present our findings with confidence intervals and r-square values for this reason.

TLDR: Data is rarely giving us the whole picture we often like to think it does

[Babeinbucland]

Lots of wonderful colors between tanking and Super Bowl. I am predicting early -10-7 or better.

Well, um, that was sarcasm, not a prediction.

As was mine lol

[Doctor]

Going back and watching some Mayfield tape holy hell I forgot the arm he has. There is a whole lot to work with there and I can see why McVay, Arians, and others are still fans.

Like with all QBs it's about fit. Make no mistake there is a fit for Mayfield to be very good in this league. I don't know if Canales is it, and there are still a whole lot of things that need to fall into place, but the pieces are there.

[MJW]

Going back and watching some Mayfield tape holy hell I forgot the arm he has. There is a whole lot to work with there and I can see why McVay, Arians, and others are still fans.

Like with all QBs it's about fit. Make no mistake there is a fit for Mayfield to be very good in this league. I don't know if Canales is it, and there are still a whole lot of things that need to fall into place, but the pieces are there.

#hejustneedsmoretime

[_MB_]

I'm rooting for Baker just to torque the galaxy brains in here that think they're too good for sloppy seconds.

[Doctor]

The "he needs more time" trope is just another form of hero-worshiping from the rookie savior crowd. It disregards all the other variables in the sport and dumbs it down to "if he was a hero he'd be a hero by now". Which is the precursor to "you need a hero to win in this league" that is followed by "I'm not saying we should try to lose but...."

[Grahamburn]

If we’re being honest here best case scenario is Trask wins the job.

If Baker wins the job and has even a Kirk Cousins-esque year we’ll have to tag him or pony up top 10 QB $$.

[Doctor]

Best case is for the best player to show out, win the job, and play the best for us. Which results in an offense that puts up more points than our defense allows.