An exercise in love: Bucs sign lamar?

[Snake]

I think it's safe to say that Lamar wants the Watson deal (as does everyone). Let's start there.

5 year, $230,000,000 contract. including a $44,965,000 signing bonus, $230,000,000 guaranteed, and an average annual salary of $46,000,000.



Contract Highlights

year 1 is light on cap hit. however, the cap hit must be larger the subsequent years to make up for that light hit up front. the hit is roughly $55m from 23-26, but the cash is only $46m.

The longer you make the contract, the more you can spread out the light first year. and steer into the cap growing, which it will.

Peers and comps:

Lamar is entering his age 26 season. Not age 33 season like Russ was at the time of his deal.

Vick (an inferior player) peaked under Andy Reid peaked at age 30, performance fell off by age 33. He also missed two seasons in his athletic prime (27/28) due to incarceration. Looking at clips from 2012, Vick is still making defenders looking slow and the arm is still there. Fans point to bad decision making and injuries eventually led to the end of his tenure.

Cam Newton peaked at age 26, and was playable as an average starter until age 29 if we go by statistics. Cam's injury history was extensive and took a turn for the worse after his peak season. Injured his throwing shoulder in 2016 and that proceeded to be an issue affecting his performance for the remainder of his career. Jackson is a superior thrower to Newton, IMO. Especially post shoulder injury Newton.

Lamar's injury issues are the elephant in the room. He's missed five games each of the last two seasons. Lost five games to end 2021 season and missed the playoffs. Ravens went 1-3 to finish 2022 season, and lost in first round. Lamar did not play any of those games. Injury problems don't get better with age. But, he could just not get injured. It is possible.

Some thoughts:

You're giving up 2 firsts (at least) and committing yourself to Lamar for at least 5 years. Mega busts like Josh Rosen and Zach Wilson get two years. Guys who show promise can get longer. Lamar's baseline performance is known. He's getting 5 years minimum.

I'm not thinking 5 years, I'm thinking 6-7. Will he be less athletic by that point? Yup. You're betting on continued progression as a thrower and winning the injury dice roll.

Seasons:

age 26
age 27
age 28
age 29
age 30
age 31
age 32

We'll take about contract and cap hit next. BucsNBills started this process already...

[Snake]

For those that don't believe Jackson can be added to our team, I'll prove it with Over the Cap. This is what our cap looks like with just signing Jackson to a 5 year, $250mil, fully guaranteed contract:

► Show Spoiler

Pretty scary stuff, right? Well, after cutting Lenny, Brate, Succup, and Gage(all likely or already real cuts), along with the magic of proration, we then arrive at the following:

► Show Spoiler

So, not only can we afford it, we have enough for our draft, and maybe even a few misc signings here and there to shore up the roster. We absolutely CAN make Jackson work without devastating our cap or the future. It's just a matter of choice by Licht and the Glazers. That's it. If those two decide that they want Jackson, we can have him as a Buc the second FA starts.

[Bootz]

If I'm looking at this correctly, @BucsNBills restructured everyone in green. He also re-signed Lavonte David. Russell Gage was released and he didn't even touch Barret, White or Wirfs contracts. We end up with $12mil+ in space.

Dammit get it done. Only things I'd personally change is I wouldn't cut Gage. He might be useful with Lamar under center. Not sure about extending Mason either. But I wouldn't have any real complaints if we went this direction.

[Doctor]

I get the injury concerns, but like Gronk, I don't care. The NFL is a game of attrition, without Lamar we are pretty much what we are now.

What matters is what shape you are in come post season and there aren't a lot of ways this Bucs team could possibly be in better shape than having a healthy Lamar under center. I'll take that any day.

The guy has been elite with the most bottom barrel talent. Give him Evans and Godwin, it's not a tough road to the NFCCG.

[Snake]

Potential contract #1: Watson 2.0, with a twist.

Total contract: 6 years, $240m fully guaranteed. (more guaranteed than Watson, less AAV)

Year 1 - Cap hit= $10m
Year 2 - Cap hit= $46m
Year 3 - Cap hit= $46m
Year 4 - Cap hit= $46m
Year 5 - Cap hit= $46m
Year 6 - Cap hit= $46m

Potential contract #2: The Chode

Total contract: 4 years, $165m fully guaranteed. (more guaranteed than Wilson, less guaranteed than Watson, high AAV). Could cash out again at age 30.

Year 1 - Cap hit= $15m
Year 2 - Cap hit= $50m
Year 3 - Cap hit= $50m
Year 4 - Cap hit= $50m

Potential contract #3: The Compromise

Mixture between Watson's deal as a ceiling and Murray's deal as a floor.

Total contract: 5 year, $232,000,000 contract. including a $35,000,000 signing bonus, $195,500,000 guaranteed, and an average annual salary of $46,400,000.

Light year 1, push hit into years 2-5.

[BucsNBills]

If I'm looking at this correctly, @BucsNBills restructured everyone in green. He also re-signed Lavonte David. Russell Gage was released and he didn't even touch Barret, White or Wirfs contracts. We end up with $12mil+ in space.

Dammit get it done. Only things I'd personally change is I wouldn't cut Gage. He might be useful with Lamar under center. Not sure about extending Mason either. But I wouldn't have any real complaints if we went this direction.

Gage is a weird one. No clue what to do with him. We can get even more 2023 cap space by keeping him and pushing his cap. Pretty neutral on keeping him or cutting him. Just cut him here for demonstration purposes.

[Doctor]

@Snake want to throw a poll up while we're at it? Maybe a simple, do you want us to push hard for Lamar?

I think the chode would be very attractive to Lamar. Imagine hitting the market again at 30, possibly after a ring.

[Phantom]

lol, you did it again Snake.

I don’t know why you Bucs fan believe Lamar going play here.

[Snake]

lol, you did it again Snake

what's that, jinxed everything? lol

[These Are The Days]

I love me some Lamar Jackson but that postseason resume scares me to death.

[real bucs fan]

If we can make it work, I guess why not?

But are we really contenders with Lamar? I kind of feel like our window has closed and our roster is close to being terrible as we lose guys we can’t sign and lack picks if we made this deal.

[Doctor]

lol, you did it again Snake.

I don’t know why you Bucs fan believe Lamar going play here.

You know we heard something similar 3 years ago...

[Bootz]

Look at this roster in 2022 and the guys were projected to lose. Who's absence are we truly hurt by? Dean maybe? LVD, but BnB had a mechanism that brought him back.

The biggest difference could/should be that Barrett would be returning. There is concern with his achilles injury. But he was missed last year.

[BucsNBills]

With a Lamar trade, we have the following offense:

Elite/Near Elite Players
Jackson
Wirfs
Evans
Godwin

Plus Starters:
Shaq Mason
Ryan Jensen

Promising Year 2 players:
Otton
White

That's 8 out of 11 starters on offense that I think we can all agree we feel really good about and are proven commodities or at least very promising.

That leaves us a guard, a tackle, and a slot receiver to round out the offense, which we can find in the draft. Perhaps Gage comes through and we have a really nice trio of receivers.

Would our 2023 offense be the most elite unstoppable force in the NFL? No, not quite. But how many offenses could you really stack up to ours and just objectively say they're noticeably ahead? Yes, there are a few, but are we top 5 or top 8? I think so, and we can definitely win with that.

[Bootz]

Given the shape of this division, we’d automatically become the favorites and rightfully so. The Oline would definitely need work. Obviously we need a new LT. Could use upgrades at both guard positions but 1 at the least. Also need another RB. But that offense is good enough to win.

[Cheb]

I am of two minds here.

Part of me wants a hard reset of the roster. Take the cap hits and rebuild the team based on playing great defense and running the ball with a young Buc on a rookie QB contract. I know that adding Lamar would make a difficult cap position even moreso.

That said, there's a part of me that would welcome a big swing like this. Let's see what LJ could do with two great receivers down here in Tampa. He would immediately alleviate many worries about the offensive line just by being as dynamic as he is. Damn the torpedos, full speed ahead.

I would be cool with it either way.

[Sdbucs]

We snag Lamar for 19, take OL/DE at 50, round out with a RB at 82. That aint a bad offense. This years draft is stacked at RB and OL.

[mdb1958]

That's a three year set back Cheb.

[Bootz]

That's a three year set back Cheb.

3 year set back of what?

[mdb1958]

Given the shape of this division, we’d automatically become the favorites and rightfully so. The Oline would definitely need work. Obviously we need a new LT. Could use upgrades at both guard positions but 1 at the least. Also need another RB. But that offense is good enough to win.

Favorites of a 1-4 playoff record - just no.

[BucsNBills]

Just an interesting tidbit.

[Bootz]

Given the shape of this division, we’d automatically become the favorites and rightfully so. The Oline would definitely need work. Obviously we need a new LT. Could use upgrades at both guard positions but 1 at the least. Also need another RB. But that offense is good enough to win.

Favorites of a 1-4 playoff record - just no.

So we should only try to acquire a QB with a winning playoff record?

[mdb1958]

I hear Baltimore saying please please please --- please please please. A run game and defense they have had all those years ------------------------------ just to meltdown because the mind can't beat playoff pressure.

[Snake]

Just an interesting tidbit.

Bucs have proven they’re willing to make a splash. Bowles may not survive a 5-12 season behind Trask. The Glazers know the value of a great QB now.

It really comes down to the salary cap and getting compliant.

[Bootz]

9/2? Get it done!

[Snake]

Implied odds of 18.18%

Let’s go.

[BucsNBills]

Just an interesting tidbit.

Bucs have proven they’re willing to make a splash. Bowles may not survive a 5-12 season behind Trask. The Glazers know the value of a great QB now.

It really comes down to the salary cap and getting compliant.

The Glazers are about to sell Man U as well, so they're going to be super cash rich and able to afford this stuff easily.

[Buc2]

Some of y'all getting excited over this possibility will need to be put on suicide watch when it doesn't happen. lol

[Bootz]

Some of y'all getting excited over this possibility will need to be put on suicide watch when it doesn't happen. lol

That would apply only if anyone actually expected it to happen. None of us do. All that's happening here is exploring the possibilities and feasibility of that situation.

[Buc2]

Some of y'all getting excited over this possibility will need to be put on suicide watch when it doesn't happen. lol

That would apply only if anyone actually expected it to happen. None of us do. All that's happening here is exploring the possibilities and feasibility of that situation.

I don't know, Bootz. Some of these guys appear to be salivating.

[Snake]

That would apply only if anyone actually expected it to happen. None of us do. All that's happening here is exploring the possibilities and feasibility of that situation.

I don't know, Bootz. Some of these guys appear to be salivating.

I'm here for maximum chaos.

I'll say this though. Worst case scenario is Trask proves to be a below average starter next season. Not TRASH, but not good. Team ends up holding unto him for another season before cutting bait. Then we're back on the QB prowl. You draft one in the first the following draft. Let's say you miss big, there's 2 seasons down the tubes. Or, he's like Winston and does just enough to keep his job for a while. There's five years wasted. Back to the well, again.

or, you can trade two first round picks for a great QB with health concerns and hope he does better come playoff time.

[Phantom]

Is that accurate?

[Snake]

Is that accurate?

It's largely accurate. there were concerns about the Raiders having enough cash on hand to guarantee a contract for Khalil Mack back in the day.

but cap space is a legit issue. at some point you have to pay the toll. even if its protracted.

[Nobody]

If we could somehow keep LVD and sign Lamar longterm to play QB in this Outside Zone/Boot & shenanigans-heavy offense? With Mike and Chris and White (who I anticipate being a dynamic, very productive player)?

And it doesn’t significantly harm what we can roster in the next 3-4 years? Are you kidding me?

Sign me the hell up and protect him from himself/extra contact.

[acmillis]

How much say do you all think Dave Canales has in us pursuing LJ? You'd really hope that he'd have a good amount of input on his personnel.