Derek Carr - and league wide QB situation

[Snake]

Teams that don't "need" a QB as of today:

Arizona Cardinals - Kyler is locked up long term.

Buffalo Bills - Same for Allen.

Cincinnati Bengals - Burrow should be there 15 years unless something goes wrong.

Cleveland Browns - Massive contract for El Rapo.

Dallas Cowboys - Ditto.

Denver Broncos - Ditto.

Detroit Lions - Goff's best statistical season in four years. Under contract two more seasons. 28 y/o.

Green Bay Packers - Rodgers will play. He's not actually tradeable based on what I'm reading about his contract. $100m in deadcap if he's moved before the conclusion of 2023 season. Will also get a $60m check this season. $1m base salary.

Jacksonville Jaguars - TL made strides under Pederson's tutelage.

Kansas City Chiefs - GOAT II. Will only become more affordable with each passing year. Great contract for both sides.

Los Angeles Chargers - Herbert is great.

Los Angeles Rams - Stafford is the guy until future notice.

Minnesota Vikings - This is interesting. Kirk is only under contract next season. Then two void years. Have 50 mil in dead cap over his head and is uncuttable/untradeable. I'd look for Spielman to make a splash the minute he's off the books.

New England Patriots - Mac Jones will be given a chance to revitalize his career under B'OB.

Philadelphia Eagles - Hurts is way better than I expected!

Pittsburgh Steelers - Pickett will get at least a season as the full time starter.

Teams that could need a QB...but probably don't today:
Baltimore Ravens - Lamar isn't under contract. Team and player are far apart on compensation. Team did hire a Lamar friendly OC tho.

Seattle Seahawks - Geno isn't under contract. Team can franchise. This could probably be in the above category. But, we will see.

Atlanta Falcons - 2-2 record as starter in Atlanta his rookie season. Cheap, athletic. Team is picking #8 overall.

NY Giants - Daniel Jones isn't under contract. 5th year was declined. Team has some tagging options. All of which will be expensive. I think Daboll has verbally backed Danny Dimes.

Teams that clearly need a QB:

Carolina Panthers - Picking #9 overall. I'm sure Reich may prefer to invest that pick into more non-QB talent. Carr could fit? team has talent. I personally think this is the most likely spot.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Trask, and uh, that's it. Cap situation isn't good. Will need to make some major *name* cuts to get under the cap. Evans, Godwin, Otton, R. White, isn't shabby on offense if the o-line can recalibrate (and the team can sign a fucking OC!)

New York Jets - Good coach, roster on the serious rise. Zach Wilson stinks. I don't think this team has been floated as an option for Carr, but it would be on my short list if I were him.

New Orleans Saints - Has Carr already picked his team? He met with NOLA. Crazy to think Carr is by default the best QB in division if he signed in NOLA tomorrow. (or any other team in the south)

Houston Texans - Seems like a guarantee they will take a QB with their 1st round pick. Levis, Stroud, Young, if reports are to be believed.

Las Vegas Raiders - What the hell do these guys do? Picking #7 in the draft. Do they trade up to #1 to get their guy? Take whoever falls to them? Roll with something else entirely or go with a free agent? Who freaking knows! I'd like to see Jimmy G in black.

Indianapolis Colts - Team is picking #4 in the draft. I see Stroud going here.

Washington Commanders - Picking #16 overall. Taylor Heinicke. Carson Wentz? Yeah, the answer isn't on this team currently.

Teams in a weird place re: QBs:

Chicago Bears - You're either a believer in Fields, or you're not. Neither side is certain about Fields' future though. Team could deal him for picks. Almost a certainty that would be followed by drafting Bryce Young or CJ Stroud #1 overall. Don't see Carr landing here. Would be odd.

San Francisco 49ers - Purdy and heavily-invested-in Lance is a crowded room in a way. The feel good story and the raw talent coming off a major injury. Carr presents a talent upgrade over Purdy. Lance's ceiling is above Carr's. What are the chances he hits the ceiling? Anyways, I don't see Shanahan spending the money to make the room crowded again like it was with Jimmy G. And I see Carr wanted anointed as The Dude.

Miami Dolphins - Tua is a good player. He's also one more bad concussion away from possible never playing again. And he's demonstrated a career long propensity to get injured.

Tennessee Titans - Ryan Tannehill is entering the last year of his big deal. $18m dead cap hit. 35 years old. Titans looked bad in a bad division. They also had rookie Malik Willis and invested some draft capital into him. Carr likely represents an upgrade over both. But I don't see the appeal if I'm Carr. Willis probably isn't the guy either. I think we may see the whole shebang getting blown up in Tennessee after next season.

[Snake]

Apparently Spielman was fired in Minnesota a year ago. Disregard that. Lol.

[MJW]

I'll Play!


I don't think there's much chance Rodgers is back in Green Bay. Jordan Love has one year left on his rookie deal, and I think the Packers are tired of A-Rod's shit, especially after his play declined so sharply this season.

Predication: Rodgers goes to the Jets straight up for #13. It's a win-win for both teams and for Rodgers.

---

Carr...the Saints are obviously the front runner right now, and it's 100% possible they already have a contract in place. But it's also possible he'll want to do a full "tour" before making that decision. With the Saints cap situation, it wouldn't be hard for someone (Tennessee?) to outbid them.

---

I will be astounded if Lamar Jackson is playing for anyone but the Ravens next year.

---

Team that could make a huge swing in the draft for a top QB: The Vikings. Kevin O'Connell inherited Cousins, and saw firsthand his limitations in big spots. The idea of working with one of the "Big Four" may inspire him to offer the farm to move up.

---

I do not expect the Seahawks to simply hand the job to Geno, even though he will be back. His play declined in the second half of the season. They're a team that could look at Hendon Hooker sooner rather than later.

---

I expect long-term deals for: Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Justin Herbert, and Joe Burrow. I expect Daniel Jones and Tua to get "fake" long-term deals with their current clubs with outs after a year or two at the most.

---

I do not expect Jimmy G, Trey Lance, and Brock Purdy to all be 49ers next year. San Fran doesn't pick until the late 3rd round right now.

---

Remember when Patrick Mahomes's deal looked insane? That was ten minutes ago. It's better to lock up your talented young QB earlier rather than later.

---

Josh McDaniels is the guy who used a 1st Round Pick on Tim Tebow. Tim Tebow is a great comp for Anthony Richardson, and I don't just mean the UF connection.

---

In our situation, it's sounding A LOT like Trask will enter camp as QB1. But I still expect a starting-caliber free agent option to be added once the market settles down and we can cut a deal. Heavy odds on Baker Mayfield.

---

[Bootz]

Green Bay should be in that last category or honestly any other category. Ironically they are in the weirdest situation with their QB. And he's currently in his own "weird" predicament as he's day 2 into 4 day societal blackout period or whatever.

Seattle is keeping Geno and wants to do so long term. They won't he QB shopping.

New England is a question mark. They benched Mac for a short time last year until Bailey got exposed. Maybe O'Brian fixes the situation but man, it is not on solid ground.

Atlanta ABSOLUTELY needs a QB. Rider ain't it. Mariota took his ball and went home.

Not sure why Chicago would be in a weird place with Fields. Fans are the only people who believe he won't be their QB going forward. Plus, ask your who would net more on a return: The #1 overall pick or Justin Fields. No, better yet ask Josh Rosen.

Lance will be the starter by default. The Jimmy G bridge is burned. Purdy might never be the same again.

Tua is the guy in Miami.

[CantonJester]

I don't see Aaron Rodgers in New York. He's a prima donna, and that town would eat him alive.

[Navybuc]

Rodgers is prolly going to Vegas. His odds to land there are -390. That’s almost as if the sports books know something.

I think Jimmy G goes to the Jets with Wash as dark horse.

Carr will choose between NO and Carolina

Darnold comes to Tampa to compete with Trask

Love starts in GB

Purdy and Lance will compete in SF

Indy, Atlanta, Houston, and potentially Carolina go qb 1st round.

Brissett, Minshew and Mayfield will spread around and prolly be placeholders somewhere for team that develops qb.

[Phantom]

Darnold comes to Tampa to compete with Trask

Ugh just no.. i hope not

[Navybuc]

Darnold comes to Tampa to compete with Trask

Ugh just no.. i hope not

It’s slim pickings out there and Bowles drafted him up in NY. Just my prediction.

[IronDog]

We're all gonna die!!!!!

[Deja Entendu]

Pats - Jones
Bills - Allen
Jets - Tannehill
Dolphins - Tua

Steelers - Pickett
Bengals - Burrow
Ravens - Jackson
Browns - Watson

Colts - Rookie / Minshew
Titans - Jimmy G
Jags - Trevor
Texans - Rookie

Raiders - Rodgers
Chiefs - Mahomes
Chargers - Herbert
Broncos - Wilson

Eagles - Hurts
Cowboys - Dak
Giants - Jones
Commanders - Howell

Bears - Fields
Packers - Love
Lions - Goff
Vikings - Cousins

Niners - Lance / Purdy
Seahawks - Geno / Rookie
Rams - Stafford
Cardinals - Kyler

Saints - Carr
Panthers - Rookie / Brissett
Falcons - Ridder
Bucs - Trask / Heineke

I think the Jets would be a great spot for Carr, but I’m not sure he will want the NY limelight/scrutiny and the Saints seem to make sense.

[IronDog]

@Snake , How dare you??!?!

[IronDog]

@snake, you're making me seasick! You rude bahstid! And you're gonna make him jealous.

[Grahamburn]

Carr is notoriously awful in cold weather. He’s a bad fit for the Jets for that reason alone.

[Doctor]

It's going to be a wicked wild off-season. Some act like not having a QB is scaring away OCs, but it seems like 2/3 of the league is in similar situations. Not to mention most OCs will be in place before the madness even begins and who knows how the pieces land.

Lamar and the Ravens seem miles apart. Lamar did all the good team player stuff last year instead of holding out. I doubt he'll let them take advantage of him twice. This can get very messy very fast. You bet Hurts is watching closely as well.

I think we'll see two cross-conference trades, Rodgers goes to the Jets and Lamar goes to Atlanta.

No idea on Carr or Jimmy, but I'd welcome either.

[Bootz]

It's going to be a wicked wild off-season. Some act like not having a QB is scaring away OCs, but it seems like 2/3 of the league is in similar situations. Not to mention most OCs will be in place before the madness even begins and who knows how the pieces land.

Lamar and the Ravens seem miles apart. Lamar did all the good team player stuff last year instead of holding out. I doubt he'll let them take advantage of him twice. This can get very messy very fast. You bet Hurts is watching closely as well.

Not understanding the correlation here.

Jeffrey Laurie essentially told the world they are going to pay Jalen Hurts very soon and pay him well. I think there is a 0% chance Hurts plays on the final year of his rookie deal in 2023 that pays him $4.4mil.

Hurts and Jackson couldn't be in anymore different situations.

[Doctor]

Link?

[Bootz]

Link?

Link to what exactly? What's the correlation between Hurts and Jackson's contract situations?

[Bootz]

@Doctor take your pick

[BucsNBills]

It will be funny if Hurts somehow gets his extension before Lamar.

[Bootz]

It will be funny if Hurts somehow gets his extension before Lamar.

The Eagles have a history of paying players earlier than usual so they can get ahead of the curve. Whatever Hurts gets will be a bargain not long after the ink dries. Of the 2020 QB class he's the only one that can say he took his team to the playoffs in his 1st 2 years as a starter.

[BucsNBills]

It will be funny if Hurts somehow gets his extension before Lamar.

The Eagles have a history of paying players earlier than usual so they can get ahead of the curve. Whatever Hurts gets will be a bargain not long after the ink dries. Of the 2020 QB class he's the only one that can say he took his team to the playoffs in his 1st 2 years as a starter.

Hurts vs Lamar, who would you want as QB?

[Bootz]

The Eagles have a history of paying players earlier than usual so they can get ahead of the curve. Whatever Hurts gets will be a bargain not long after the ink dries. Of the 2020 QB class he's the only one that can say he took his team to the playoffs in his 1st 2 years as a starter.

Hurts vs Lamar, who would you want as QB?

Lamar Jackson and with respect to Jalen Hurts it's not close.

[Doctor]

The "link" is that they are the next two in line for mega deals.

Watson set a new bar.
Lamar wants to match it.
If he does it would be a huge push for fully guaranteed contracts being the new norm, which is big for the next guy in line.

[Bootz]

The "link" is that they are the next two in line for mega deals.

Watson set a new bar.
Lamar wants to match it.
If he does it would be a huge push for fully guaranteed contracts being the new norm, which is big for the next guy in line.

Joe Burrow on line 1......

[Doctor]

Burrow has a 5th year option

[Bootz]

Burrow has a 5th year option

LMAO! You think the Bengals are gonna let Burrow go 2 more years without an extension? You're out of your mind! You only do that if you're stupid or you don't believe on him.

But the Bengals have already indicated they plan to get a deal done soon. They aren't waiting around.

[Doctor]

Okay... that's fine and all....
but Hurts is still the soonest pendng mega QB FA after Lamar.

[Bootz]

Okay... that's fine and all....
but Hurts is still the soonest pendng mega QB FA after Lamar.

Kinda pivoted there but I get it.

Geno Smith. Derek Carr. Daniel Jones even. All 3 will get paid this offseason. NOW this is where you'll move those posts even further and to fit your meaning of "mega". Go.

[Doctor]

I think you just pre-emptively moved the goal posts there.

I think I was very clear in my post. I even explicitly said fully guaranteed contracts.

Do you seriously believe any of the QBs you mentioned are getting that?

[Snake]

I’d rather be bad than pretend I can win a Super Bowl with Derek Carr or Daniel Jones.

(you know what I mean. It would take a fucking miracle on ice.)

[BucsNBills]

I’d rather be bad than pretend I can win a Super Bowl with Derek Carr or Daniel Jones.

(you know what I mean. It would take a fucking miracle on ice.)

Some just seem desperate to win 6 or 7 games so we can be just out of reach of the elite QBs next year.

[Doctor]

I’d rather be bad than pretend I can win a Super Bowl with Derek Carr or Daniel Jones.

(you know what I mean. It would take a fucking miracle on ice.)

Why?
Being able to STOP an elite QB remains far more vital than having one.

[BucsNBills]

Personally I'd rather have a good offense and bad defense nowadays. Nothing is more infuriating than watching the defense take care of business only to watch the offense go out there and shit the bed. it's boring to watch and the losses are painful and depressing.

Also, there's really no stopping the elite QBs anymore. At least not in a consistent basis. At best you can slow them down. The deck is far too stacked against the defense and it's only going to get worse. Defense is there to protect the leads your offenses can generate. Without an offense, having a good defense is almost pointless.

[Bootz]

I think you just pre-emptively moved the goal posts there.

I think I was very clear in my post. I even explicitly said fully guaranteed contracts

Do you seriously believe any of the QBs you mentioned are getting that?

There it is. No one is getting a fully guaranteed deal. The Deshaun Watson deal was a rare, inexplicable anomaly. Hurts, Burrow, Herbert, Tua, Jackson, none of them are getting a fully guaranteed deal.

[Snake]

Rodgers is prolly going to Vegas. His odds to land there are -390. That’s almost as if the sports books know something.

I’m seeing +500 for Vegas. What are you talking about?