BucsNBills wrote: ↑Sat Mar 18, 2023 11:04 am
Unfortunately Licht is extremely predictable when it comes to the draft as he almost exclusively chases need so you can accurately guess who we'll draft by looking at draft sites and seeing what they list as a need for the team.
He also locks onto players and doesn't consider the majority draft consensus on them so he will often reach for a player(see jts, Logan Hall, Trash).
Personally I would try to use at least our first two picks on players that could push a position group on the team towards elite status. Maybe try to establish a clear identity for the team.
I have a short list of players I'd like but I have no real hope of Licht picking them so they're not even worth mentioning.
Wait... what?
Are you watching some alternative universe Bucs? We've gotten lucky a few times where BPA was also a huge need, but that's less than half the time. Licht has made it clear the draft is where you find your studs. He's also fantastic at understanding his coaches, their goals and schemes, and getting them players that match up best for what we want to do.
We say it every free agency period how we're "now not pigeonholed" and free to take the best guy. Which we do. But also, JL did do a lot of time in NE and really doesn't give a damn about other people's boards. If they really like a guy and he's probably not going to be there when it spins back around, they take him. They like who they like.
"Our philosophy is going to be to build through the draft. That's where we find our stars. That's where we find the next generation. But also in the short term and long term we're going to supplement our roster through free agency. But we're going to look for value. We're going to spend wisely."
- Jason Licht 2014
Let's Review
2014 Mike Evans- Biggest needs was QB, pass rush, and guard. Manziel Mania was in full swing and Anthony Barr has his followers. We ended up taking BPA Mike Evans, who no one was calling, yet would go on to be the greatest WR in Bucs history.
2015 Jameis Winston- Since he won the National Championship and Heisman he was one of three guys (Luck, Clowney) to be the locked #1 overall pick from over a year out. It was Winless for Winston. So yeah, BPA and obvious need.
2016 Vernon Hargreaves- Here's the second time need fit BPA. We were in need of a CB after trading Revis. At the same time, VH3 was very much a top 10 guy in his own right, often mocked early. I had him on the top of my board too, hoping he could be a twitchy INT machine in Lovie's Tampa 2 if he ever got McCoy help to rush the passer with just four like in the old days... spoiler, none of that happened.
2017 O. J. Howard- Here is a great example of when BPA burned us. A case of a guy we liked what we saw but probably didn't deep dive into thinking he'd be long gone. When he fell he was clear BPA. Exciting visions of him in DK's four verticals. Total bust. Cook was the BPA and JL knows it. Safety was by far the biggest need, but RB wasn't far behind.
2018 Vita Vea- Another one where everyone was clamoring for Derwin James to fill that need at safety. Which he would've. But JL is a simp for hog mollies having played in the trenches himself. Smashed BPA.
2019 Devin White- The BPA of BPAs doesn't care that you don't draft off ball LBs this high. Ironically the next BPA would've fit the need/bpa combo in edge Josh Allen. Either way, here is another example of getting a guy who can be a star in your coach's system.
2020 Tristan Wirfs- An all-star class of OTs (not unlike this class), you could swap around the top guys on any board and it would've been valid. Nonetheless, true to form, JL's pick was the physical specimen in the trench. Which also happened to be our biggest need as well. That makes three times we got a lucky break.
2021 Joe Tryon-Shoyinka- We really didn't have many needs going into this draft, but you can never have too many pass rushers. Either way, I think this is an example of a guy they just crushed on who they knew wouldn't be there later.
2022 Logan Hall- Once again safety was the biggest need and Lewis Cine was right there. Yet we trade back and get another guy up front even though we still have Gholston, Vea, and Hicks to start. But OBP doesn't believe in rookie saviors, they believe in coaching and development. Get the talent early and coach it up.
2023- You're in luck, this could be a year we get a lucky break. My BPA shortlist holds Bijan, Brian Branch, and the OT class. All of those would also fill huge needs.
