Doctor wrote: ↑Fri May 12, 2023 9:26 pm
We know QB is looking more likely not solved than solved right now. But here's the thing, that's so for any team without an established QB. That includes shiny first round saviors. I don't understand why it's okay to have hope then but not now. You saw how "the greatest QB class ever" went. Our own "Tank for Winston" messiah.
Yeah, there's like a 1/5 chance we have something, but honestly it's like 1/4 for the Panthers and Colts. It's like that every time you don't have an known guy yet. It's the game. It's going to play out regardless. You can't fast forward. Don't get what's wrong with trying to see possible ways pieces can fall into place.
The 2007 Giants were mid af. Go check them out. 2011 too. But you know what, you get hot at the right time, play your best ball for 3 games, anything can happen. Also, papers champs rarely win. Saying "we're not winning the super bowl" isn't brave, its literally 31/32 true every year.
There is a difference between "We don't know is good" and "We know isn't good." We know Mayfield isn't good. You can pretend the multitude of coaches and teams he played for missed something. He came into the league the same year as Josh Allen and Vita Vea. At his very best, he was functional. And that was several years ago.
Also, the whole, "Remember 15 years ago this team that didn't look great won things?" Yes, we know surprising things happen, that's why they play the games. Nobody is suggesting they cancel the games. We are looking in May at a roster with major holes, especially at the most important position in sports, and a shitty head coach who couldn't win games with the greatest player ever at that position.
I don't begrudge you your hopes, but I'm under no obligation to pretend they're based on anything tangible.
"So let's get to the point
Let's roll another joint
And let's head on down the road
There's somewhere I got to go..."
You know how many SB QBs were on their 2nd, 3rd, 4th team?
And that's the thing, he's one of TWO possible options. We have two dart throws here. About as good of a roll as any season we went in believing in Freeman or Winston.
If posted, I missed it, but Za'Darius Smith was traded to Cleveland. That's a great add for them. He's still a really good player and he'll get to shine with teams scheming/double-teaming/slanting away from Garrett.
"So let's get to the point
Let's roll another joint
And let's head on down the road
There's somewhere I got to go..."
Doctor wrote: ↑Fri May 12, 2023 10:33 pm
You know how many SB QBs were on their 2nd, 3rd, 4th team?
And that's the thing, he's one of TWO possible options. We have two dart throws here. About as good of a roll as any season we went in believing in Freeman or Winston.
Except not all dart throws are created equal. One of these darts has been thrown by 3 other people and has yet to stick to the board.
Every argument with Doctor ends up at, "Something this improbable DID happen once or twice, so it's equally likely it happens now as doesn't!"
Like...you know why late bloomers are a great story? Because it doesn't happen very often.
You know why the 2007 Giants are a great story? Because it was basically historic.
ETC.
It's like trying to talk investing with someone who constantly tells you how his friend's cousin won the lottery so what's the point?
"So let's get to the point
Let's roll another joint
And let's head on down the road
There's somewhere I got to go..."
Funny considering you think Caleb is the magic ticket.
And it's not as "rare" or "historic" as you are trying to lead on.
In fact, landing your savior QB is more rare but you keep chasing it. Mortals actually play in the Super Bowl plenty.
Doctor wrote: ↑Tue Mar 21, 2023 11:38 am
I get it. A franchise QB is sexy. A dynasty is sexy. Stringing together multiple SBs is sexy.
But the truth is that THAT is the fantasy. Brady skewed the picture, but in reality, even the franchiest of franchise QBs usually get you 1 or 2 bites of the apple. If even that. Brady had ten Super Bowl appearances which won't happen again. And who did he beat? Who oftentimes came within inches or minutes of being a champion in their own appearances?
The likes of Jake Deholmme, Jared Goff, Kurt Warner (twice). You also have guys like Jimmy G, Cam Newton, Kaep, Rex Grossman ffs, and Matt Hasselbeck. And those are just the losers. Dudes like Eli, Nick Foles, Staffy and Flacco all actually won. Trent Dilfer beat Kerry Collins. Brad Johnson defeated Gannon in a journeyman duel.
This is why I keep saying stopping an elite QB still remains the best way of winning a championship. Defense still wins championships. We held Mahomes to 9 freaking points and you're going to tell me Geno Smith couldn't get us 10 after averaging 24 ppg because he isn't part of the "cool QB club"? Come on.
Doctor wrote: ↑Sat May 13, 2023 2:00 am
Funny considering you think Caleb is the magic ticket.
And it's not as "rare" or "historic" as you are trying to lead on.
In fact, landing your savior QB is more rare but you keep chasing it. Mortals actually play in the Super Bowl plenty.
Doctor wrote: ↑Tue Mar 21, 2023 11:38 am
I get it. A franchise QB is sexy. A dynasty is sexy. Stringing together multiple SBs is sexy.
But the truth is that THAT is the fantasy. Brady skewed the picture, but in reality, even the franchiest of franchise QBs usually get you 1 or 2 bites of the apple. If even that. Brady had ten Super Bowl appearances which won't happen again. And who did he beat? Who oftentimes came within inches or minutes of being a champion in their own appearances?
The likes of Jake Deholmme, Jared Goff, Kurt Warner (twice). You also have guys like Jimmy G, Cam Newton, Kaep, Rex Grossman ffs, and Matt Hasselbeck. And those are just the losers. Dudes like Eli, Nick Foles, Staffy and Flacco all actually won. Trent Dilfer beat Kerry Collins. Brad Johnson defeated Gannon in a journeyman duel.
This is why I keep saying stopping an elite QB still remains the best way of winning a championship. Defense still wins championships. We held Mahomes to 9 freaking points and you're going to tell me Geno Smith couldn't get us 10 after averaging 24 ppg because he isn't part of the "cool QB club"? Come on.
First off, this isn’t 2000 or 2002. Our defense is about as bad as our QB. Just watch the WC game last year and see how Dallas’ offense rolled all over our mighty D. Our DL is nowhere what it used to be and we have a very subpar secondary. So this whole “defense wins championships” speech is nice if we actually had a defense.
Secondly, it’s a different era. SF has a lot better defense than us, a much better Ol and RB, but they still failed in the NFCC game because they had no qb. You need a qb in todays game to win a SB. At least something above average. We have a guy who got benched than cut in favor of PJ Walker. There are 3rd string qbs out there better than our starting qb situation.
And last but not least, all those teams you mentioned that won with defense actually had a good HC. Even the last team to win with an average qb…Nick Foles..had Doug Pederson who I actually think may be the best HC in football. Meanwhile, you could argue we have the worst HC in the NFL.
Doctor wrote: ↑Sat May 13, 2023 2:00 am
Funny considering you think Caleb is the magic ticket.
And it's not as "rare" or "historic" as you are trying to lead on.
In fact, landing your savior QB is more rare but you keep chasing it. Mortals actually play in the Super Bowl plenty.
Secondly, it’s a different era. SF has a lot better defense than us, a much better Ol and RB, but they still failed in the NFCC game because they had no qb. You need a qb in todays game to win a SB. At least something above average.
Your overall points are solid but the Niners literally had no QB vs the Eagles after Purdy got hurt. I don't think Purdy is as good as some do but he's still better than a guy who couldn't handle the snap in Josh Johnson. They may not have beaten the Eagles if Purdy was healthy but it would have certainly been more of a game. The Niners roster is loaded, the coach is solid and they have everything the Bucs do not seem to currently have.
Trying to argue that the upcoming season for the Bucs looks bright at this point is an angle I just can't see. None of the requirements those taking that angle are there other than "well...you never know". Not a great position to take.
Secondly, it’s a different era. SF has a lot better defense than us, a much better Ol and RB, but they still failed in the NFCC game because they had no qb. You need a qb in todays game to win a SB. At least something above average.
Your overall points are solid but the Niners literally had no QB vs the Eagles after Purdy got hurt. I don't think Purdy is as good as some do but he's still better than a guy who couldn't handle the snap in Josh Johnson. They may not have beaten the Eagles if Purdy was healthy but it would have certainly been more of a game. The Niners roster is loaded, the coach is solid and they have everything the Bucs do not seem to currently have.
Trying to argue that the upcoming season for the Bucs looks bright at this point is an angle I just can't see. None of the requirements those taking that angle are there other than "well...you never know". Not a great position to take.
The part that scares me with our team is we have very few great young players…AWJ, Wirfs, Vea….I am drawing a blank after that. Maybe Dean. But Evans may have peaked. Barrett and David are barely hanging on to their prime. Godwin has no one to throw him the ball. Jensen prolly has one more season with us.
Meanwhile, Shoyinka is looking like a bust. White doesn’t even want to be here. Hall was a wasted pick. Goedeke…ugh. Otton is more of a backup TE in this league. If this draft doesn’t work out, we are really fucked. And a lot of that’s on coaching. We’re putting a lot of faith in this coaching staff to develop these guys.
Doctor wrote: ↑Sat May 13, 2023 2:00 am
Funny considering you think Caleb is the magic ticket.
And it's not as "rare" or "historic" as you are trying to lead on.
In fact, landing your savior QB is more rare but you keep chasing it. Mortals actually play in the Super Bowl plenty.
Doctor wrote: ↑Tue Mar 21, 2023 11:38 am
I get it. A franchise QB is sexy. A dynasty is sexy. Stringing together multiple SBs is sexy.
But the truth is that THAT is the fantasy. Brady skewed the picture, but in reality, even the franchiest of franchise QBs usually get you 1 or 2 bites of the apple. If even that. Brady had ten Super Bowl appearances which won't happen again. And who did he beat? Who oftentimes came within inches or minutes of being a champion in their own appearances?
The likes of Jake Deholmme, Jared Goff, Kurt Warner (twice). You also have guys like Jimmy G, Cam Newton, Kaep, Rex Grossman ffs, and Matt Hasselbeck. And those are just the losers. Dudes like Eli, Nick Foles, Staffy and Flacco all actually won. Trent Dilfer beat Kerry Collins. Brad Johnson defeated Gannon in a journeyman duel.
This is why I keep saying stopping an elite QB still remains the best way of winning a championship. Defense still wins championships. We held Mahomes to 9 freaking points and you're going to tell me Geno Smith couldn't get us 10 after averaging 24 ppg because he isn't part of the "cool QB club"? Come on.
I think Caleb is one of the most talented and NFL ready quarterback prospects to come into the league in some time. You keep acting like the rest of us are saying "rookie savior" or "magic ticket." We're not. That's you. That's your strawman.
Take a look at the list of Superbowl winning QBs and count up the guys who have no shot at the HOF. I count 2 in the last 20 years. 4 in the last 30. That's rare.
"They almost beat Tom Brady" is another way of saying, "If those teams had an elite quarterback, they'd have won." Kinda proves my point.
Finally, yes, defense can win Superbowls. We know this. Nobody is arguing this. It doesn't change that a HOF quarterback is a much, much more common denominator than any other factor.
"So let's get to the point
Let's roll another joint
And let's head on down the road
There's somewhere I got to go..."
Should also be noted - yes, roughly once a decade, a team wins without a HOF caliber quarterback. But not being mentioned is that every year, there are probably 25 teams that try to do it and don't come close.
It's not "1 out of every 10 Superbowl Teams wins without a great quarterback." It's more like "1 out of every 250 or so teams without a great quarterback wins a Superbowl."
"So let's get to the point
Let's roll another joint
And let's head on down the road
There's somewhere I got to go..."
One last note: Baker Mayfield is not a "slightly less than elite" quarterback. He's been in the league five seasons and his best season is basically an average Kirk Cousins season.
And Ironically, Doctor blathers about idiots seeing top pick quarterbacks as saviors, but we all know that if Baker Mayfield was a 3rd Round pick instead of #1 overall, he wouldn't even be getting this shot here.
"So let's get to the point
Let's roll another joint
And let's head on down the road
There's somewhere I got to go..."
We've been hearing "this is the age of QB heroes" since the days of Namath, through Marino and Peyton, and Vick and Mahomes, it's always "the game has changed, you NEED one of these shiny QBs to win now". But it's the same old story.
We held the "legendary Mahomes" to 9 points. The Super Bowl before that the 8th-ranked defense avg 19.4 ppg was 3 minutes away from beating that same legendary QB with Jimmy G if they didn't have the biggest Super Bowl choker as a HC. Before that the SB score was 13-3 and before that, the winner was Nick Foles. These all literally just happened.
I get it. You want your hero. I do too. But please miss me with the same old narrative.
Amazing thing about interests, we have the group think QB argument and all I can think about is how do we let the Dallas Cowboys get David Darden in their camp instead of ours.
Why does Bryce Ford-Wheaton think being 15th in the Giants WR group was better than the chance we would have given him.
Why is a St Pete native (Matt Landers) in a Seahawk camp right now.
All I can think is why doesn't @mdb1958 ever offer a master class on how to accurately identify these "hidden gems" that never amount to anything. No one even knows if they are real or where they came from. Are you secretly an area scout or something who goes to game after game at school after school? How do you find these people? I've shared message boards with you for almost 15 years and I can't think of 1 random you've named thats amounted to anything. Well, except Jeff Janis.
Doctor wrote: ↑Sat May 13, 2023 10:23 pm
We've been hearing "this is the age of QB heroes" since the days of Namath, through Marino and Peyton, and Vick and Mahomes, it's always "the game has changed, you NEED one of these shiny QBs to win now". But it's the same old story.
We held the "legendary Mahomes" to 9 points. The Super Bowl before that the 8th-ranked defense avg 19.4 ppg was 3 minutes away from beating that same legendary QB with Jimmy G if they didn't have the biggest Super Bowl choker as a HC. Before that the SB score was 13-3 and before that, the winner was Nick Foles. These all literally just happened.
I get it. You want your hero. I do too. But please miss me with the same old narrative.
There are problems with your thinking.
1) This Bucs defense is not that good. Just look at the WC Game for proof of that. Or how we looked against Mahomes last year. Stop trying to compare this to 2020 or 2002.
2) Baker Mayfield is not even in the same ball park as Jimmy G. Hell he isn’t even better than PJ Walker
3) You mention Nick Foles, but he had Doug Pederson, one of the best HC in the NFL. And they had a good D. We’ve got maybe the worst HC in the NFL.
Picking a player to come play for us and convincing a player to come play for us are two different things. Knowing and hearing what five hundred million people are talking about just deflates the amount of time I'd wanna talk about it.
Throw in arguments and wow, that's when the interest really peaks. Have at it.
I suggest you research how many rounds the draft used to have in its history. Success of the NFL depends on UDFA's. Also when doing sims, I get interested in draft picks the same way I do UDFA's. Success is their problem, I'd say most players I've ever talked about made it to an NFL club, duration and success is not my problem.
Bootz wrote: ↑Sun May 14, 2023 8:47 am
All I can think is why doesn't @mdb1958 ever offer a master class on how to accurately identify these "hidden gems" that never amount to anything. No one even knows if they are real or where they came from. Are you secretly an area scout or something who goes to game after game at school after school? How do you find these people? I've shared message boards with you for almost 15 years and I can't think of 1 random you've named thats amounted to anything. Well, except Jeff Janis.
I've been talking with mdb about small school prospects for over a decade, and imo the biggest feather in his scouting cap that I can recall is Maxx Crosby. I first heard about Maxx via mdb, who was all about Crosby after his breakout sophomore season, the year before he was drafted. Maxx has made pretty good, I'd say.
Bootz wrote: ↑Sun May 14, 2023 8:47 am
All I can think is why doesn't @mdb1958 ever offer a master class on how to accurately identify these "hidden gems" that never amount to anything. No one even knows if they are real or where they came from. Are you secretly an area scout or something who goes to game after game at school after school? How do you find these people? I've shared message boards with you for almost 15 years and I can't think of 1 random you've named thats amounted to anything. Well, except Jeff Janis.
I've been talking with mdb about small school prospects for over a decade, and imo the biggest feather in his scouting cap that I can recall is Maxx Crosby. I first heard about Maxx via mdb, who was all about Crosby after his breakout sophomore season, the year before he was drafted. Maxx has made pretty good, I'd say.
I think we should get a look at those DB's from Holy Cross, whats it gonna hurt. Many drafted NFL players never make their mark because they went somewhere where they will be behind some player for years.
Richardson, during the NFL’s rookie orientation program, stayed behind to help the staff clean up the room that was “left a mess,” even as NFL executive vice president of football operations Troy Vincent told the Florida Gators prospect that he didn’t need to stay.
To which Anthony Richardson responded, “‘We left this room in an unacceptable condition, and it’s not right for us to expect the staff to clean it all up,’”
Colts owner Jim Irsay also appeared to approve of Richardson’s move, as he quote-tweeted the story on Twitter with an emoji that was a flexing bicep.
It was a dinner that “all potential draftees” attended, and Vincent reportedly called Ballard following the NFL Draft to pass along the anecdote about the Colts’ new franchise quarterback and his character.
Richardson stayed “until the room was cleaned up entirely, and he was the last person working along with the workers of the shift,” according to the radio segment.
Richardson, during the NFL’s rookie orientation program, stayed behind to help the staff clean up the room that was “left a mess,” even as NFL executive vice president of football operations Troy Vincent told the Florida Gators prospect that he didn’t need to stay.
To which Anthony Richardson responded, “‘We left this room in an unacceptable condition, and it’s not right for us to expect the staff to clean it all up,’”
Colts owner Jim Irsay also appeared to approve of Richardson’s move, as he quote-tweeted the story on Twitter with an emoji that was a flexing bicep.
It was a dinner that “all potential draftees” attended, and Vincent reportedly called Ballard following the NFL Draft to pass along the anecdote about the Colts’ new franchise quarterback and his character.
Richardson stayed “until the room was cleaned up entirely, and he was the last person working along with the workers of the shift,” according to the radio segment.
Yeah, I'm incredibly impressed with him as a dude. I'm rooting for him. But frankly I think if he'd come around ten years ago, he'd have been moved to tight end, and it might have been for the best.
"So let's get to the point
Let's roll another joint
And let's head on down the road
There's somewhere I got to go..."
Doctor wrote: ↑Sun May 14, 2023 4:44 pm
I just don't understand the difference between believing in Hurts last year, or Young, Stroud, Richardson, Love this year, or Trask.
I'm sorry but the "didn't beat out Gabbert" arguement is weak af.
You don’t understand the difference between all those different players, most of which who have really different skill sets?
Doctor wrote: ↑Sun May 14, 2023 4:44 pm
I just don't understand the difference between believing in Hurts last year, or Young, Stroud, Richardson, Love this year, or Trask.
I'm sorry but the "didn't beat out Gabbert" arguement is weak af.
If you're someone who was not impressed by Trask coming of UF - and many were not - and he's given absolutely nothing in two full years to change your mind. It's kinda that simple. There's been no reason to have your mind changed yet. Did he have a ton of opportunities? No. But you're still asking people who might have been initially skeptical of his NFL prospects to buy in while offering them no compelling reason to do so. Not even great mop-up reps, or preseason appearances, or camp/practice buzz, or compelling coach's quotes.
"So let's get to the point
Let's roll another joint
And let's head on down the road
There's somewhere I got to go..."
Obviously I do. What I don't understand is this belief that some of these dudes are "destined to be great anywhere" and it's all about "getting one" and (perhaps funniest of all) that we are actually good at differentiating them. Levis was suppose to be top 5, fell. The "greatest QB class" was a disappointment minus one guy who if he does go to the Ravens, could very easily have ended up being a nobody on a bench not being given a chance, some braintrust upstairs makes them play Bledsoe or Flynn "because of the money" and we never hear of the other guys. Stories like that are more common than heroes. There is so much that has to fit in place for the good ones to come through and have good moments. And the kicker is it happens all the time, and it doesn't have to happen for "20 years", it can happen for the right 3 games and that's enough.
All those players are different. All are <30% chance of actually being that 20 year "franchise QB". You can have your favorites and your bets, but that's all that would be.
I will honestly be shocked if Trask and Mayfield is even a real competition. I expect it to be one of those "competitions" where the presumed favorite (Mayfield) gets 80% of the first team reps.
That said, behind this line anyone who doesn't have Tom Brady's quickness ain't gonna last 17 games. We'll see them both I'm sure.
"So let's get to the point
Let's roll another joint
And let's head on down the road
There's somewhere I got to go..."
