***Official 2023 NFL Draft Thread***

[Doctor]

It's nuts to remember Martin had two 1400 yard seasons for us. But come on, they are not the "same player" and you know it.

[mdb1958]

McShay has us taking Van Ness.

[acmillis]

It's nuts to remember Martin had two 1400 yard seasons for us. But come on, they are not the "same player" and you know it.

But see, that's the thing...they are. Martin played in 57 games in 5 seasons, Barkley played in 60, and they have eerily similar stats.

If their names were not attached to these stats, you'd say they are the same player.

IMO, Barkley is getting a hella long leash because of where he was drafted and the potential he had/has.

Barkley has played in 60 of a possible 82 games, missing just over 25% of games. He averages (for career) 4.5 YPC, and if you only look at this stats after he got injured in 2020, in two seasons since, he has rushed 457 times for 1905 yards, averaging 4.16 YPC and 14 total touchdowns combined rush/receiving in two years with a total of 601 receiving yards.

If i told you a RB(over the last two seasons) averaged
952.5 yards rushing on 228 carries, 49 catches for 300 yards, 1252 total combined yards and 7 TDs per season, you really think that is good for a #2 overall pick.

And do you think any team will look smart for paying him the 15M/year he'll probably get?

[Doctor]

We'll have to see. Except there's a reason Martin never got the payday Barkley will. While their 5 years sums and averages look similar for different reasons, we all kind of suspected Martins were outliers more than norms. Barkleys are expected to be norms, not to mention a 90 reception season Martin could never sniff.

Will they be? That remains to be seen but barring injury, yes, I would say so.

Let me put this another way. How many other RBs have HoF potential? Seriously, the 2010s really only gave us one guy, AP. I'm a Frank Gore fan, but if we're talking pure, raw top dawg talent type HoF... it's really just Barkley.

More to it... none of this even matters. The overall worth of the contract is really unimportant compared to how much he can help you get a ring. We did this same bs with the "misallocation of resources" during our Brady window. It's all about how much they can push you closer to the promised land. You can also see CMC in SF. Players who can absolutely take over or single handedly win you games on one big play.

[acmillis]

We'll have to see. Except there's a reason Martin never got the payday Barkley will. While their 5 years sums and averages look similar for different reasons, we all kind of suspected Martins were outliers more than norms. Barkleys are expected to be norms, not to mention a 90 reception season Martin could never sniff.

Will they be? That remains to be seen but barring injury, yes, I would say so.

Let me put this another way. How many other RBs have HoF potential? Seriously, the 2010s really only gave us one guy, AP. I'm a Frank Gore fan, but if we're talking pure, raw top dawg talent type HoF... it's really just Barkley.

More to it... none of this even matters. The overall worth of the contract is really unimportant compared to how much he can help you get a ring. We did this same bs with the "misallocation of resources" during our Brady window. It's all about how much they can push you closer to the promised land. You can also see CMC in SF. Players who can absolutely take over or single handedly win you games on one big play.

In 5 seasons, Barkleys “norms” are above average at best. In 5 years, he’s had two good seasons. That’s not a dude that I would pay the money somebody is going to pay him… and then trade or cut him in two years

[Doctor]

This is all a moot point.

100% chance he isn't there when we pick.
100% chance he's the pick if he's there.

JL let himself be reasoned out of Cook for "generational" OJ and couldn't move up for Mixon or JT, and overall has not been able to land some nice RBs he felt very good about. If Bijan is there, there is no way JL won't see him as BPA or let himself to miss out again. JMO

[acmillis]

This is all a moot point.

100% chance he isn't there when we pick.
100% chance he's the pick if he's there.

JL let himself be reasoned out of Cook for "generational" OJ and couldn't move up for Mixon or JT, and overall has not been able to land some nice RBs he felt very good about. If Bijan is there, there is no way JL won't see him as BPA or let himself to miss out again. JMO

Didn’t draft cook… won a SB

[Cheb]

I’d be tempted to just hammer OL if it falls that way for us. Give White and Trask a chance. Worst case our 2024 rookie QB will have a great young OL to play behind. It helps now and later.

I’m really liking Anton Harrison at LT to replace Donovan Smith. Every mock I do he’s there, late first kinda guy.

https://www.nfldraftbuzz.com/Player/An ... L-Oklahoma

Agreed. Harrison is on my shortlist of realistic first rounders.

[Doctor]

OL is thicc

Reminds me of the 2020 class.

[MJW]

OL is thicc

Reminds me of the 2020 class.

There are a ton of guys not getting first round hype who are going to be fixtures - Matthew Bergeron, Jaelyn Duncan, Tyler Steen, Dawand Jones, Cody Mauch, Andrew Vorhees, Jaxson Kirkland, Brandon Kipper, JM Schmitz, Ricky Stromberg, Joe Tippman, Juice Scruggs, etc.

If we go into this draft and say, "We're going to fix the offensive line, period," we could very well accomplish that. If we went, say, Anton Harrison - JM Schmitz - Jarrett Patterson 1-2-3, we'd be set for a long time.

[Doctor]

Assuming they all hit. And who did we have to pass on. This draft has the making of one of those where tons of good players get pushed down.

Anton Harrison could be there in the 2nd. So could Ringo or Boutte.

[Selmon Rules]

All I know is that we are going into the season trying to determine if Trask is a realistic option for the future. If he spends the season with no running game and spends his time on his back, we've learned nothing and it truly is a wasted season

[MJW]

All I know is that we are going into the season trying to determine if Trask is a realistic option for the future. If he spends the season with no running game and spends his time on his back, we've learned nothing and it truly is a wasted season

That's part of it, and it's why I'd like to see the OL as one of the few areas we try to keep decent after the purge. Hopefully we can renegotiate Mason, figure out LG, and replace Donovan Smith with literally anyone or anything.

If Trask is under the kind of fire Brady was this past season, he has no chance.

[mdb1958]

Just curious, is it fantasy football that makes fans only talk about one side of a roster?

[Bootz]

[Doctor]

Just curious, is it fantasy football that makes fans only talk about one side of a roster?

As the living dynasty of our boards league let me tell you.... no.

I'm a heavy BPA guy and right now the way the draft is falling, I think that will be on offense. There is no Sauce in this draft, but it's still thick with CBs a tier below that I would love to grab before Day 3. Same with Edge. LB and S are rather meh this draft. WR is also one that has no clear answer but a whole lot of murky but possible home runs lurking. I doubt a WR will be BPA at 19.

At 19 you are usually in that awkward spot of taking someone you love that will in no way make it to your next pick or taking the "top 10" guy that happens to fall this far. IMO, that is most likely to be either Bijan or one of the tackles. There is no clear cut #1 OT, but the top four are all very good in their own ways, and each is worth a serious look if they are there at 19. Edge is another position that could be thick at the right time.

[mdb1958]

We have 18 defensive free agents and 7 offensive.

[Bootz]

I think this needs to be an offense heavy draft. I'm not usually one for trading back a ton but we need bodies.

[Sdbucs]

We could really stand to add a weapon on offense

[BucsNBills]

I think this needs to be an offense heavy draft. I'm not usually one for trading back a ton but we need bodies.

I agree. With Bowles firing Leftwich and most of the offensive staff, through his actions he said very loudly what he believes the problem was in 2022. To follow that decision up with another hard to watch offense would be an embarrassment and will likely cost him his job.

I'm okay with trading back, but if Bijan is there, I'm taking him without a second thought. And i don't really care what "conventional wisdom" says about taking a RB in the 1st round. Bijan is special talent and will be a fixture of the offense for the next half decade at minimum.

[Selmon Rules]

I still would rather have a "good" RB behind a "good" OL than a " great RB behind a "bad" OL

Give the the line first every time

[Backside]

Other than just being ‘better’ in some nebulous way. Can Bijan do anything for our offense that White can’t? I really can’t endorse BPA for a running back. Let’s go with BVA, and the value is simply not there at all.

[_MB_]

We have 18 defensive free agents and 7 offensive.

How many of them play special teams?

[mdb1958]

We could really stand to add a weapon on offense

Meet priority free agent Quinton Barrow.

[BucsNBills]

I just want to point out that the Eagles had what most considered to be the best oline in the draft and the Chiefs had an arguably better oline considering how they handled the Eagles pass rush. Of those two lines, there's as many undrafted players starting as there are 1st round draft picks: 1.

Most are a combination of mid round picks, several of which are 6th and 7th rounders.

We can address the Oline while still adding an elite talent like Bijan. I'm going to trust PFF who normally shits on any team that drafts a RB in the 1st round and they are advocating that someone take Bijan in round one because he's that good. He's basically broken their grading system with how good he's been.

Having both Bijan and White, along with an improved Oline and (hopefully) a much more creative passing scheme could allow someone like Trask to excel even if his talent is outmatched by his contemporaries.

[mdb1958]

We have 18 defensive free agents and 7 offensive.

How many of them play special teams?

Clearly Doc doesnt have a plan to replace them, what's your plan?

[Bootz]

I think this needs to be an offense heavy draft. I'm not usually one for trading back a ton but we need bodies.

I agree. With Bowles firing Leftwich and most of the offensive staff, through his actions he said very loudly what he believes the problem was in 2022. To follow that decision up with another hard to watch offense would be an embarrassment and will likely cost him his job.

I'm okay with trading back, but if Bijan is there, I'm taking him without a second thought. And i don't really care what "conventional wisdom" says about taking a RB in the 1st round. Bijan is special talent and will be a fixture of the offense for the next half decade at minimum.

You can't win with "okay" offense anymore. Ain't happening. You have to be able to score points. I'm glad Bowles realized this as well and made a change.

[mdb1958]

I agree. With Bowles firing Leftwich and most of the offensive staff, through his actions he said very loudly what he believes the problem was in 2022. To follow that decision up with another hard to watch offense would be an embarrassment and will likely cost him his job.

I'm okay with trading back, but if Bijan is there, I'm taking him without a second thought. And i don't really care what "conventional wisdom" says about taking a RB in the 1st round. Bijan is special talent and will be a fixture of the offense for the next half decade at minimum.

You can't win with "okay" offense anymore. Ain't happening. You have to be able to score points. I'm glad Bowles realized this as well and made a change.

Replacing too many offensive players already under contract ignores the contracts we have to administer to.

[Bootz]

You can't win with "okay" offense anymore. Ain't happening. You have to be able to score points. I'm glad Bowles realized this as well and made a change.

Replacing too many offensive players already under contract ignores the contracts we have to administer to.

This offense averaged 18 points per game and no it wasn't just because of playcalling. We need talent on offense. A lot of these players aren't nearly as good as people want to believe they are.

[mdb1958]

Replacing too many offensive players already under contract ignores the contracts we have to administer to.

This offense averaged 18 points per game and no it wasn't just because of playcalling. We need talent on offense. A lot of these players aren't nearly as good as people want to believe they are.

Yeah, I think we over paid for that last year with poor results.

[Cheb]

So we are currently projected to have nine draft picks, if the compensatory predictions are accurate (and they generally are); one pick each in the first through third rounds, then two picks apiece in the fifth through seventh rounds.

I am starting to think of this draft as being split into two halves. The top half in the first three rounds is for impact players likely to start, the bottom half is for depth purposes.

In thinking about team needs, we can obviously go alot of different directions depending on who we cut to get under the cap and what we do in free agency. In thinking about those needs and splitting them between the wants and the needs, I'd put them something roughly like this:

Impact positions to target in the first three rounds:
- Safety - Antoine Winfield is the only safety under contract. Anyone we draft in the top few rounds would be the presumptive starter next to him.
- Offensive Tackle - Assuming Donovan Smith is cut for cap purposes, we need another OT, either right or left (maybe we try out Wirfs at LT?). Only other OT on the roster besides Wirfs if/when Smith is cut would be the forgettable Brandon Walton.
- Cornerback - Either Dean or SMB or both aren't going to be in pewter come fall. We need a starter here ideally. Only other corner of note besides CD3 is Zyon McCollum.

Depth positions to target in the last three rounds:
- Offensive Guard/Swing Lineman - Another interior depth guy with upside for the day that Shaq Mason and Ryan Jensen is no longer with us. This would also provide insurance behind Goedeke or whomever is cursed to play our left guard position.
- Edge - JTS is middling, Shaq is hurt, there's no depth there. Even if Nelson comes back, we need depth here.
- Interior D-line - Vita Vea and Logan Hall are the only interior defensive linemen under contract. We need depth here badly.
- Inside linebacker - LVD is a free agent and he's old. Even if he comes back, he's 33 next year. If you aren't a fan of paying Devin White, this becomes an even greater need. KJ Britt and Ulysses Grant are only going to carry the defense so far.
- Kicker - Ryan Succop should not renew the lease on his Tampa apartment.
- Quarterback - Love him or hate him, we need depth behind Kyle Trask. We'll likely have some type of veteran I wager, but having a cheap rookie behind them would be incredibly helpful in rounding out the roster.

Thoughts?

[_MB_]

So we are currently projected to have nine draft picks, if the compensatory predictions are accurate (and they generally are); one pick each in the first through third rounds, then two picks apiece in the fifth through seventh rounds.

I am starting to think of this draft as being split into two halves. The top half in the first three rounds is for impact players likely to start, the bottom half is for depth purposes.

In thinking about team needs, we can obviously go alot of different directions depending on who we cut to get under the cap and what we do in free agency. In thinking about those needs and splitting them between the wants and the needs, I'd put them something roughly like this:

Impact positions to target in the first three rounds:
- Safety - Antoine Winfield is the only safety under contract. Anyone we draft in the top few rounds would be the presumptive starter next to him.
- Offensive Tackle - Assuming Donovan Smith is cut for cap purposes, we need another OT, either right or left (maybe we try out Wirfs at LT?). Only other OT on the roster besides Wirfs if/when Smith is cut would be the forgettable Brandon Walton.
- Cornerback - Either Dean or SMB or both aren't going to be in pewter come fall. We need a starter here ideally. Only other corner of note besides CD3 is Zyon McCollum.

Depth positions to target in the last three rounds:
- Offensive Guard/Swing Lineman - Another interior depth guy with upside for the day that Shaq Mason and Ryan Jensen is no longer with us. This would also provide insurance behind Goedeke or whomever is cursed to play our left guard position.
- Edge - JTS is middling, Shaq is hurt, there's no depth there. Even if Nelson comes back, we need depth here.
- Interior D-line - Vita Vea and Logan Hall are the only interior defensive linemen under contract. We need depth here badly.
- Inside linebacker - LVD is a free agent and he's old. Even if he comes back, he's 33 next year. If you aren't a fan of paying Devin White, this becomes an even greater need. KJ Britt and Ulysses Grant are only going to carry the defense so far.
- Kicker - Ryan Succop should not renew the lease on his Tampa apartment.
- Quarterback - Love him or hate him, we need depth behind Kyle Trask. We'll likely have some type of veteran I wager, but having a cheap rookie behind them would be incredibly helpful in rounding out the roster.

Thoughts?

Pretty good writeup. We can fuss about priorities, but I think you're pretty close.

[Bootz]

So we are currently projected to have nine draft picks, if the compensatory predictions are accurate (and they generally are); one pick each in the first through third rounds, then two picks apiece in the fifth through seventh rounds.

I am starting to think of this draft as being split into two halves. The top half in the first three rounds is for impact players likely to start, the bottom half is for depth purposes.

In thinking about team needs, we can obviously go alot of different directions depending on who we cut to get under the cap and what we do in free agency. In thinking about those needs and splitting them between the wants and the needs, I'd put them something roughly like this:

Impact positions to target in the first three rounds:
- Safety - Antoine Winfield is the only safety under contract. Anyone we draft in the top few rounds would be the presumptive starter next to him.
- Offensive Tackle - Assuming Donovan Smith is cut for cap purposes, we need another OT, either right or left (maybe we try out Wirfs at LT?). Only other OT on the roster besides Wirfs if/when Smith is cut would be the forgettable Brandon Walton.
- Cornerback - Either Dean or SMB or both aren't going to be in pewter come fall. We need a starter here ideally. Only other corner of note besides CD3 is Zyon McCollum.

Depth positions to target in the last three rounds:
- Offensive Guard/Swing Lineman - Another interior depth guy with upside for the day that Shaq Mason and Ryan Jensen is no longer with us. This would also provide insurance behind Goedeke or whomever is cursed to play our left guard position.
- Edge - JTS is middling, Shaq is hurt, there's no depth there. Even if Nelson comes back, we need depth here.
- Interior D-line - Vita Vea and Logan Hall are the only interior defensive linemen under contract. We need depth here badly.
- Inside linebacker - LVD is a free agent and he's old. Even if he comes back, he's 33 next year. If you aren't a fan of paying Devin White, this becomes an even greater need. KJ Britt and Ulysses Grant are only going to carry the defense so far.
- Kicker - Ryan Succop should not renew the lease on his Tampa apartment.
- Quarterback - Love him or hate him, we need depth behind Kyle Trask. We'll likely have some type of veteran I wager, but having a cheap rookie behind them would be incredibly helpful in rounding out the roster.

Thoughts?

We need an impact pass rusher. JTS has shown no growth in getting an expanded role. Shaq is coming off of an achilles tear and will be 31 later this year. Our best "pass rusher" right now is probably Devin White. We need a presence off the edge.

[Cheb]

So we are currently projected to have nine draft picks, if the compensatory predictions are accurate (and they generally are); one pick each in the first through third rounds, then two picks apiece in the fifth through seventh rounds.

I am starting to think of this draft as being split into two halves. The top half in the first three rounds is for impact players likely to start, the bottom half is for depth purposes.

In thinking about team needs, we can obviously go alot of different directions depending on who we cut to get under the cap and what we do in free agency. In thinking about those needs and splitting them between the wants and the needs, I'd put them something roughly like this:

Impact positions to target in the first three rounds:
- Safety - Antoine Winfield is the only safety under contract. Anyone we draft in the top few rounds would be the presumptive starter next to him.
- Offensive Tackle - Assuming Donovan Smith is cut for cap purposes, we need another OT, either right or left (maybe we try out Wirfs at LT?). Only other OT on the roster besides Wirfs if/when Smith is cut would be the forgettable Brandon Walton.
- Cornerback - Either Dean or SMB or both aren't going to be in pewter come fall. We need a starter here ideally. Only other corner of note besides CD3 is Zyon McCollum.

Depth positions to target in the last three rounds:
- Offensive Guard/Swing Lineman - Another interior depth guy with upside for the day that Shaq Mason and Ryan Jensen is no longer with us. This would also provide insurance behind Goedeke or whomever is cursed to play our left guard position.
- Edge - JTS is middling, Shaq is hurt, there's no depth there. Even if Nelson comes back, we need depth here.
- Interior D-line - Vita Vea and Logan Hall are the only interior defensive linemen under contract. We need depth here badly.
- Inside linebacker - LVD is a free agent and he's old. Even if he comes back, he's 33 next year. If you aren't a fan of paying Devin White, this becomes an even greater need. KJ Britt and Ulysses Grant are only going to carry the defense so far.
- Kicker - Ryan Succop should not renew the lease on his Tampa apartment.
- Quarterback - Love him or hate him, we need depth behind Kyle Trask. We'll likely have some type of veteran I wager, but having a cheap rookie behind them would be incredibly helpful in rounding out the roster.

Thoughts?

We need an impact pass rusher. JTS has shown no growth in getting an expanded role. Shaq is coming off of an achilles tear and will be 31 later this year. Our best "pass rusher" right now is probably Devin White. We need a presence off the edge.

All fair points. Theoretically, which of OT/S/CB would you drop down from high priority to depth priority in order to get an impact pass rusher?

[Bootz]

We need an impact pass rusher. JTS has shown no growth in getting an expanded role. Shaq is coming off of an achilles tear and will be 31 later this year. Our best "pass rusher" right now is probably Devin White. We need a presence off the edge.

All fair points. Theoretically, which of OT/S/CB would you drop down from high priority to depth priority in order to get an impact pass rusher?

Of those 3 safety. A high impact pass rusher goes further than another high impact safety.