NFL MVP Predictions

[Snake]

I’m not sure how much leadership had to do with Patrick Mahomes missing half his offensive line and running for his life.

[uscbucsfan]

I’m not sure how much leadership had to do with Patrick Mahomes missing half his offensive line and running for his life.

You didn't hear that Gisele practices witchcraft?

[King Bootz]

ATrain doesn't even believe this.

I absolutely do. We wouldn't have won with Rodgers instead of Brady. Our team needed things that Rodgers simply can't provide. He's not a leader of men, he's a good QB, that's it. That's why he has one ring.

No you don't. You only say that because there's nothing tangible or possible for your assessment to be judged.

[King Bootz]

I’m not sure how much leadership had to do with Patrick Mahomes missing half his offensive line and running for his life.

You didn't hear that Gisele practices witchcraft?

Now that's a DAB

[Nobody]

We wouldn't have won the Super Bowl with Aaron Rodgers instead of Brady last year.

Even Nobody, Brady's biggest fan, doesn't believe that.

This is nonsense by the way.

I’m not even close to a “Brady fan” and certainly not “his biggest fan.”

I don’t like particular, shallow, unexamined media narratives that are empirically wrong (eg “Brady has regressed” and more specifically “Brady has regressed due to loss of arm talent”) and so I push back hard when I see claims (particularly those that become widely cited and just taken as truth without any further examination) that can’t be substantiated.

That is where it begins and ends for me and Brady.

If I’m a “fan” of any Buccaneer, it would be LVD. But my “fandom” doesn’t color my analysis of his play. When he screws up on a run fit or doesn’t cover a Wheel route when he’s got Flat coverage in Zone or fails to convert a Sack when a blitz freed him…I call him on it.

Also, this is a rare occasion where I agree with Bootz. This guy should have his vote stripped. It’s absurd to smuggle in prior year’s off-the-field stuff to try to hang on a player having an MVP season (Rodgers has missed a singular game this year and if there is evidence of locker room anger over it…where is the media expose’ with cited sources?). Its particularly bad and looks particularly fraught when it comes from a Bears media member.

And honestly, the other off-the-field stuff they’re citing (the power struggle and dismay with their GM/personnel people)? I don’t see any evidence that there wouldn’t be sympathy for Rodgers. He certainly has sympathy from me. He has not been helped by their personnel team for years snd they’ve made some ghastly errors in judgement. And like-it-or-not, QBs like Rodgers, Mahomes, Brady, et al should absolutely be some (even if peripheral or zoomed out) should have some kind of consult when it comes to roster building around them; “do you like this guy…what about this?” The Love fiasco was a joke (and that team needed targeted roster help).

This Bears’ media member is clearly bent because it’s the Packers and Rodgers and he’s the perfect example of why I feel that a huge chunk of media members are clowns and not equipped to do their jobs.

Finally, despite Brady’s heroics last week, I still feel it’s Rodgers’ to lose (despite my case for the opposite above) because his through line of play has been so consistent (where Brady’s advanced metrics, gross numbers, and 4th Q wins are better than Rodgers by a small bit…his play has not been quite as even as Rodgers). Unless Rodgers loses this weekend, it’s his to win.

And I looked at Taylor more to see if I can make a case for him. Watched his play in key games. He’s been AWFUL in Pass Protection. Just awful. There have been some serious key moments in their season where his failed protection has led to play losses that ended/damaged drives (the Tennessee games in particular, especially the first game).

Running Backs are just not that consequential even if they’re putting out stupid numbers and they look like they should be (2019 Panthers despite McCaffrey’s ridiculous year or Tennessee losing Henry and still maintaining just fine are as potent of lines of evidence for this as there are). It’s why you don’t draft McCaffrey or Barkley where they were drafted and it was obvious at the time and it’s only proven out since then.

Taylor is not the MVP and RB is just not in the same universe as consequential as QB play in the modern NFL (you don’t draft them high and you don’t renew their contracts).

QUICK EDIT - You know who should be in these conversations (he will be for years to come)? Joe Burrow. What he’s done this year, particularly coming off the mental hurdle of that injury, is amazing and he is absolutely the real deal. Everything from LSU has translated to this level. He’s actually legitimized the Bungles.

No he is not the MVP…but he should absolutely be in the conversation. I suspect he, Mahomes, Allen, Murray, and Prescott will be battling it out for those honors for the next decade.

[uscbucsfan]

This is nonsense by the way.

I’m not even close to a “Brady fan” and certainly not “his biggest fan.”

It was a joke.

I mentioned you because we had a similar discussion about the two in the past in regards to GOATs and you pointed to Brady's advance stats and leadership, but also had (and I could be mistaken) confidence in what Rodgers could do with this offense.

What advanced metrics is Brady up on at this point? Just curious as you likely know off the top of your head. I know PFF has moved Rodgers as the best QB in the league overall and I thought Rodgers passed Brady in QBR/QBR in the 4th quarter, etc, but maybe not.

[ATrain]

I absolutely do. We wouldn't have won with Rodgers instead of Brady. Our team needed things that Rodgers simply can't provide. He's not a leader of men, he's a good QB, that's it. That's why he has one ring.

No you don't. You only say that because there's nothing tangible or possible for your assessment to be judged.

I do though. We clearly have a difference in opinion. That's fine. Common even. Let's just leave it at that and move on.

[Nobody]

This is nonsense by the way.

I’m not even close to a “Brady fan” and certainly not “his biggest fan.”

It was a joke.

What do you think about the rest of the post (and check out my edit at the end)?

[uscbucsfan]

It was a joke.

What do you think about the rest of the post (and check out my edit at the end)?

Sorry I edited to add another question and why I mentioned you.

I think it was a great post, as always. Again, I don't agree with the Bear's writer, but it's a legitimate criticism with the COVID and pre-season stuff even if I think he's off-base. I think him lobbying for it is a bad look and hadn't thought of that until Bootz pointed it out. There's a reason why they are told not to discuss who they are/aren't voting for and why before the vote.

edit: I make a shorter agreement about RBs in general. Henry was far better and having a more historic season than Taylor and they've barely missed him. Taylor is absolutely important, especially to that offense and Wentz, but history says the drop off if he got injured wouldn't be the same as a QB playing to the level of Rodgers and Brady.

I also think you left out Herbert for the future MVP races, but Burrow has been awesome.

[ATrain]

Why PFF thinks Brady should be MVP and All Pro over Rodgers

[Nobody]

What do you think about the rest of the post (and check out my edit at the end)?

Sorry I edited to add another question and why I mentioned you.

I think it was a great post, as always. Again, I don't agree with the Bear's writer, but it's a legitimate criticism with the COVID and pre-season stuff even if I think he's off-base. I think him lobbying for it is a bad look and hadn't thought of that until Bootz pointed it out. There's a reason why they are told not to discuss who they are/aren't voting for and why before the vote.

What do you think about Taylor's Pass Protection woes being a not-insignificant-part of his "MVP resume?"

What about RBs value generally and how it pertains to possible MVP voting (see McCaffrey and Henry)?

What about McCaffrey and Barkley's draft status and it being a clear mistake then and an easy one to forecast?

What about the Burrow's comment?

[uscbucsfan]

Sorry I edited to add another question and why I mentioned you.

I think it was a great post, as always. Again, I don't agree with the Bear's writer, but it's a legitimate criticism with the COVID and pre-season stuff even if I think he's off-base. I think him lobbying for it is a bad look and hadn't thought of that until Bootz pointed it out. There's a reason why they are told not to discuss who they are/aren't voting for and why before the vote.

What do you think about Taylor's Pass Protection woes being a not-insignificant-part of his "MVP resume?"

What about RBs value generally and how it pertains to possible MVP voting (see McCaffrey and Henry)?

What about McCaffrey and Barkley's draft status and it being a clear mistake then and an easy one to forecast?

What about the Burrow's comment?

I keep editing, sorry. I'm doing multiple things at once.

[uscbucsfan]

Sorry I edited to add another question and why I mentioned you.

I think it was a great post, as always. Again, I don't agree with the Bear's writer, but it's a legitimate criticism with the COVID and pre-season stuff even if I think he's off-base. I think him lobbying for it is a bad look and hadn't thought of that until Bootz pointed it out. There's a reason why they are told not to discuss who they are/aren't voting for and why before the vote.

What do you think about Taylor's Pass Protection woes being a not-insignificant-part of his "MVP resume?"

What about RBs value generally and how it pertains to possible MVP voting (see McCaffrey and Henry)?

What about McCaffrey and Barkley's draft status and it being a clear mistake then and an easy one to forecast?

What about the Burrow's comment?

I keep editing, sorry. I'm doing multiple things at once.

[King Bootz]

Also, this is a rare occasion where I agree with Bootz.

[Nobody]

RODGERS VS BRADY STATS RIGHT NOW

ADVANCED AND GROSS METRICS

Rodgers

FBO's YAR * - 2
FBO's DYAR * - 2
FBO's DVOA * - 1
Game-winning-drives - 1
4th Q Comebacks - 2
PFF Grade - 4
PFF Big Time Throw % - 2
Turnover-Worthy-Play % - 3
Drops - 15 (# 25)
Sacks - #11
Passer Rating - #1
QBR - #1
Yards - 3977 (#9)
1st Downs (including rushing - 220 (#9)
TDs (including rushing) - 38 (#4)
Ints - 4 (#1)

Brady

FBO's YAR - 1
FBO's DYAR - 1
FBO's DVOA - 2
Game-winning-drives (does not include Bucs OT win) - 3
4th Q Comebacks - 5
PFF Grade - 2
PFF Big Time Throw % - 6
Turnover-Worthy-Play % - 2
Drops - 34 (# 1)
Sacks - #1
Passer Rating - #11
QBR - #2
Yards - 4990 (#1)
1st Downs (including rushing) - 276 (#2)
TDs (including rushing) - 42 (#1)
Ints - 12 (#16)

* Quarterbacks are ranked according to DYAR, or Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement. This gives the value of the quarterback's performance compared to replacement level, adjusted for situation and opponent and then translated into yardage. DYAR (and its cousin, YAR, which isn't adjusted based on opponent) is further explained here.

The other statistic given is DVOA, or Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. This number represents value, per play, over an average quarterback in the same game situations. The more positive the DVOA rating, the better the player's performance. Negative DVOA represents below-average offense.

[Snake]

They’re both amazing. Obviously even moreso at their advanced ages. But Brady being like six years older or whatever might as well be 1000 years older in the NFL where age curves are exponential.

[Nobody]

Last thought and this pertains to the Bucs.

Arians Offense and Bowles Defense are likely the two most volatile forms of play on both sides of the ball in the NFL. This is why you see such massive spikes and swings; the highs are enormously so, the lows are brutally low, stability is nearly impossible to attain.

What we do compared to Green Bay is night and day on both sides of the ball. We demand so much play-making and staying out of trouble (because this offense yields all kinds of trouble for the QB position) from the QB position down-in and down-out. We demand so much from our blitz packages, our primary ILB coverage player, and Defensive Backs. Its so easy for a failure-point of any of those things to give expression to a catastrophic play loss and then a gamestate spiral that has to somehow be arrested by a great player coming up with a great play at a key time.

For my money?

Give me Green Bay's formula on both sides of the ball all day long. Green Bay's formula on offense is basically perfect and their defensive formula is excellent as well.

[ATrain]

[Primeminister]

Using the benefit of hindsight as to how everyone played this year, pretend you can go back to week 1, empty all rosters, put all available players on a draft board, and give yourself the #1 pick to build your 2021 team. Who do you take?

If you don't say Aaron Rodgers, you're nuts. He's the most valuable player in the league. Hence, MVP.

Not trolling when I say I’d take Brady. I knew before this season started that Rodgers is the most talented QB I’ve ever seen so this season didn’t change that for me. I take Brady because historically Rodgers simply doesn’t get it done when it matters most.

[King Bootz]

Using the benefit of hindsight as to how everyone played this year, pretend you can go back to week 1, empty all rosters, put all available players on a draft board, and give yourself the #1 pick to build your 2021 team. Who do you take?

If you don't say Aaron Rodgers, you're nuts. He's the most valuable player in the league. Hence, MVP.

I thought that answer was Andrew Luck

[13F11B]

Why PFF thinks Brady should be MVP and All Pro over Rodgers

We have a winner with the analysis. IMHO Brady is the MVP. Any discussion outside of that is lunacy. Aaron Rodgers IMHO is at best #3.

[uscbucsfan]

Why PFF thinks Brady should be MVP and All Pro over Rodgers

We have a winner with the analysis. IMHO Brady is the MVP. Any discussion outside of that is lunacy. Aaron Rodgers IMHO is at best #3.

That's not how it works. PFF has their own methods and math. They deducted points for Rodgers missing a game (much like the Bears writer) when most believe that increases his chances with how poorly the Packers looked.

PFF thinks that Aaron Donald should be the unanimous MVP and he's not likely to even be 2nd in the voting. TJ Watt will likely win in a land slide, much like Rodgers is predicted to win big. Brady is number 2 in the odds, and I think they are top 2...I don't think anyone else really is in the discussion and shouldn't be.

[13F11B]

We have a winner with the analysis. IMHO Brady is the MVP. Any discussion outside of that is lunacy. Aaron Rodgers IMHO is at best #3.

That's not how it works. PFF has their own methods and math. They deducted points for Rodgers missing a game (much like the Bears writer) when most believe that increases his chances with how poorly the Packers looked.

PFF thinks that Aaron Donald should be the unanimous MVP and he's not likely to even be 2nd in the voting. TJ Watt will likely win in a land slide, much like Rodgers is predicted to win big. Brady is number 2 in the odds, and I think they are top 2...I don't think anyone else really is in the discussion and shouldn't be.

Regardless of PFF, etc.

My opinion is Brady is far and away the MVP this season. Rodgers is at best #3.

[uscbucsfan]

That's not how it works. PFF has their own methods and math. They deducted points for Rodgers missing a game (much like the Bears writer) when most believe that increases his chances with how poorly the Packers looked.

PFF thinks that Aaron Donald should be the unanimous MVP and he's not likely to even be 2nd in the voting. TJ Watt will likely win in a land slide, much like Rodgers is predicted to win big. Brady is number 2 in the odds, and I think they are top 2...I don't think anyone else really is in the discussion and shouldn't be.

Regardless of PFF, etc.

My opinion is Brady is far and away the MVP this season. Rodgers is at best #3.

Who would you have at 2 and why?

Again, I get thinking Brady or Rodgers...an outside change for Burrow, but not quite there yet.

It will likely be Rodgers and Watt, most signs point to that being the case at this point unless Rodgers has a terrible final game.

[Pirate Life]

Using the benefit of hindsight as to how everyone played this year, pretend you can go back to week 1, empty all rosters, put all available players on a draft board, and give yourself the #1 pick to build your 2021 team. Who do you take?

If you don't say Aaron Rodgers, you're nuts. He's the most valuable player in the league. Hence, MVP.

For me, it's Burrow over Rodgers in that scenario but I'd be thinking about the future and not just one season. One season? I'm putting my chips on Brady. Doesn't mean I think either of the two should be the MVP. Just the two players I'd most build a team around depending on the goal. Rodgers' playoff record isn't great. Ten post seasons, three one-and-done years and a 1-3 NFC championship record. A bit Peyton-esque. Albeit with better stats.

If the ultimate goal is to win the SB, then for a single season right now I'm taking Brady. If it's competing for one over the next 5-10 years, I'm going with Burrow.

[Snake]

Here’s a question. You’re starting a brand new expansion team. Probably going to be shitty. Who knows about the head coach.

Who do you take if forced to pick one: Patrick Mahomes or Joe Burrow?

I think the vast majority of people take Mahomes. But I think this time next year, the answer might be different.

[uscbucsfan]

Here’s a question. You’re starting a brand new expansion team. Probably going to be shitty. Who knows about the head coach.

Who do you take if forced to pick one: Patrick Mahomes or Joe Burrow?

I would probably take Mahomes, Herbert, Burrow, then Allen in that order.

[ATrain]

Here’s a question. You’re starting a brand new expansion team. Probably going to be shitty. Who knows about the head coach.

Who do you take if forced to pick one: Patrick Mahomes or Joe Burrow?

I think the vast majority of people take Mahomes. But I think this time next year, the answer might be different.

I take Burrow because his mechanics are miles ahead of Mahomes and plays the position in a more traditional and reliable manner.

[King Bootz]

Here’s a question. You’re starting a brand new expansion team. Probably going to be shitty. Who knows about the head coach.

Who do you take if forced to pick one: Patrick Mahomes or Joe Burrow?

I think the vast majority of people take Mahomes. But I think this time next year, the answer might be different.

Mahomes. Burrow has been nothing short of amazing these last 2 weeks but he's got to prove himself long term the way Mahomes has. If he can match with 1 Super Bowl appearances, 1 win, 1 SB MVP and a league MVP that would be great. But as of now, Burrow is behind Mahomes, Allen, Murray, Jackson as far as young QBs go.

The future is extremely bright for the NFL with all of the great to elite young QB talent.

[13F11B]

Regardless of PFF, etc.

My opinion is Brady is far and away the MVP this season. Rodgers is at best #3.

Who would you have at 2 and why?

Again, I get thinking Brady or Rodgers...an outside change for Burrow, but not quite there yet.

It will likely be Rodgers and Watt, most signs point to that being the case at this point unless Rodgers has a terrible final game.

The best QB in the league would be between Rodgers and Brady this season. I would give the nod to Brady this year.

The MVP though has to take into account most valuable player. I think Joe Burrow and Tom Brady make more of a difference to their team than Rodgers does to the Packers.

Again, this is subjective, not quantitative.

[King Bootz]

A month ago today the Bengals were 7-6 and had gotten their ass kicked by the Chargers 41-22. Burrow at that time had 23 TDs to 14 INTs. He rise has been fast but he has not been a consistent force throughout the entire season.

He's been amazing the last 2 games. Completing 79% of his passes, 8 TDs to 0 INTs, 971 yards and 2 wins.

The fact that he's even in the MVP conversation goes back to my position about this being a "who's my favorite QB right now" award. There are numerous games the Bengals lost because of his poor play and decision making. I think he's a very talented kid but he has no business in the MVP conversation.

[uscbucsfan]

A month ago today the Bengals were 7-6 and had gotten their ass kicked by the Chargers 41-22. Burrow at that time had 23 TDs to 14 INTs. He rise has been fast but he has not been a consistent force throughout the entire season.

He's been amazing the last 2 games. Completing 79% of his passes, 8 TDs to 0 INTs, 971 yards and 2 wins.

The fact that he's even in the MVP conversation goes back to my position about this being a "who's my favorite QB right now" award. There are numerous games the Bengals lost because of his poor play and decision making. I think he's a very talented kid but he has no business in the MVP conversation.

It doesn't appear that he actually is going off odds, MVP predictors, writers choices, etc.

He has a promising future and has been insane the last 2 weeks (Chase has been more impressive, he has been devastating CBs with his routes and getting WIDE open), but yea, not really in the MVP race...as we've seen in the past team record and standings play a role in that as much as individual accomplishments. Rodgers was better than Matt Ryan when Ryan won, but the Falcons were the better team...

[uscbucsfan]

Who would you have at 2 and why?

Again, I get thinking Brady or Rodgers...an outside change for Burrow, but not quite there yet.

It will likely be Rodgers and Watt, most signs point to that being the case at this point unless Rodgers has a terrible final game.

The best QB in the league would be between Rodgers and Brady this season. I would give the nod to Brady this year.

The MVP though has to take into account most valuable player. I think Joe Burrow and Tom Brady make more of a difference to their team than Rodgers does to the Packers.

Again, this is subjective, not quantitative.

All 3 teams are likely picking top 3 if they got injured game 1 and their existing roster had to play without them or sign a FA like Cam Newton.

Rodgers and Brady have played more consistently at a level higher than Burrow and their teams have better records.

[Xandtar]

Last year they got Burrow his weapon.

This year they have to get Burrow his shield, OL remains suspect.

As an LSU alum, I'll take Burrow because he's already proven what he can do with a crappy team, give him even one weapon and even with a crappy line he wins his division. Maybe Mahomes would have done just as well, but QB is mental, not just physical, and when the chips were down this season Mahomes didn't look so good to me. He did battle back, though.

[uscbucsfan]

Last year they got Burrow his weapon.

This year they have to get Burrow his shield, OL remains suspect.

As an LSU alum, I'll take Burrow because he's already proven what he can do with a crappy team, give him even one weapon and even with a crappy line he wins his division. Maybe Mahomes would have done just as well, but QB is mental, not just physical, and when the chips were down this season Mahomes didn't look so good to me. He did battle back, though.

They are much more than Burrow and 1 weapon.

He has one of the best group of pass catchers in the league, a legit LT, great RB and a top 15 Defense.

They need better blocking, but they have crazy good skill position outside of Chase. They almost had 3 1,000 year WRs and a 1,000 yard back