Playoff Positioning: Where we Stand.

[Dread]

Let me draw it out for you.

Packers vs Ravens Week 15 -- this is the key game that I see as the one the Packers could lose.

The Cardinals have a few that are possible but the most likely is vs the Cowboys. If they lose that game the Buccaneers win the tiebreaker due to a common opponent.

Common opponent is down the list of tie-breakers. In the event of a 3 way tie, Conference record & divisional record would both have to be the same for common opponents to even factor in. In a 2 way tie, it's just divisional record.

As it stands, AZ is 4-0 in their division with 2 home games left against the Seahawks & Rams. So we'd need them to lose against the Rams I believe as well as Dallas

I'm not sure that divisional records are relevant in the context of Conference tie-breakers. Your divisional record only matters to settle a tiebreaker within the division should two (or more) teams finish with the same W-L and H2H was split also.

The Packers, Bucs, and Cards are obviously all in different divisions and would be their respective division winner in this scenario, so it comes down to;

1) H2H (Not applicable unless it's just the Cards and Packers)
2) Conference (NFC) Record
3) Common opponents

[ATrain]

Common opponent is down the list of tie-breakers. In the event of a 3 way tie, Conference record & divisional record would both have to be the same for common opponents to even factor in. In a 2 way tie, it's just divisional record.

As it stands, AZ is 4-0 in their division with 2 home games left against the Seahawks & Rams. So we'd need them to lose against the Rams I believe as well as Dallas

I'm not sure that divisional records are relevant in the context of Conference tie-breakers. Your divisional record only matters to settle a tiebreaker within the division should two (or more) teams finish with the same W-L and H2H was split also.

The Packers, Bucs, and Cards are obviously all in different divisions and would be their respective division winner in this scenario, so it comes down to;

1) H2H (Not applicable unless it's just the Cards and Packers)
2) Conference (NFC) Record
3) Common opponents

That's true. The wording on the tiebreaker sites confused me because it only mentions division winners and wild card tiebreakers. So for seeding that doesn't involve division teams their divisional record doesn't really matter. Which is good for us.

Packers have a 7-2 conference record
We are 5-3
Cardinals are 5-2.

So this is actually go news for us since we can still maybe eek out a tiebreaker #1 seed vs the Cardinals depending on how things land. But the Packers would be tough since they have common opponent advantage.

I think the gist of it is we can tie with Arizona and still have a reasonable shot at winning tiebreakers but we really need to have the better record vs the Packers. Which is the exact opposite of what I said earlier so I was wrong due to thinking division records matter.

Regardless, we need to win every game from here on out. I suppose we could lose one and get support lucky but we already need two teams to lose games, so compounding that issue only further mitigates our chances.

Both he NFC and AFC are hyper competitive this year. Usually at least one front runner has emerged by now but each conference is in a week by week race which I haven't seen for some time now

[Dread]

The Cards have 6 games left, half of which are teams that will likely make the playoffs (Rams, Colts, Cowboys) so I think it's more likely than not they lose 1 one of those. I'd go as far as to say the odds are better they lose 2 of those than lose none. But 1 loss is most likely imo.

Packers have 5 games left. @Ravens, Browns, Vikings are the only decent teams they play. But we only need them to lose once.

I still think the Bucs winning out and finish 14-3 gets the #1 seed.

[King Bootz]

I've toggled with the playoff machine myself. Under no circumstances can we withstand another loss within the NFC. We'd have virtually no shot at the #1 seed with a 4th NFC loss. Actually if Dallas wins out and they tie everyone else or even 2 other teams at 13-4 they get the #1 seed because 3 of their 4 are against the AFC. We are the only NFC team to beat them.

[kaimaru]

With tiebreakers, even if the Cardinals lost to the Bears and we win, we can't improve seeding position this week.

Packers got us with common opponents and AZ is way ahead on division.

Our only path to the #1 seed is to avoid tiebreakers with AZ, then sweep our division from here on out and hope that the Vikings can get a W on the road.

So, in other words, when it comes to the #1 seed, every game is must win. And yes, the #1 seed is must have for us (don't believe the rationalizing on these boards).

Per- EPSN's Playoff Machine, that is not true. We would move to #2 seed.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

[ATrain]

With tiebreakers, even if the Cardinals lost to the Bears and we win, we can't improve seeding position this week.

Packers got us with common opponents and AZ is way ahead on division.

Our only path to the #1 seed is to avoid tiebreakers with AZ, then sweep our division from here on out and hope that the Vikings can get a W on the road.

So, in other words, when it comes to the #1 seed, every game is must win. And yes, the #1 seed is must have for us (don't believe the rationalizing on these boards).

Per- EPSN's Playoff Machine, that is not true. We would move to #2 seed.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

Yeap I said that before I knew divisional record doesn't impact non-division opponents. Too lazy to fix it.

[MJW]

I've toggled with the playoff machine myself. Under no circumstances can we withstand another loss within the NFC. We'd have virtually no shot at the #1 seed with a 4th NFC loss. Actually if Dallas wins out and they tie everyone else or even 2 other teams at 13-4 they get the #1 seed because 3 of their 4 are against the AFC. We are the only NFC team to beat them.

I really felt when the WFT loss happened, that was probably the end of the #1 seed hunt. That said, obviously there's a lot of football to be played. And I really like our remaining schedule, especially in conference. I feel confident about our 4 remaining division games (also our 4 remaining NFC games.) I feel like if we can get by the Bills, I honestly like our odds to win out. Not saying we will, etc, etc. Especially with the Saints on the schedule. They don't look like "The Saints" we've come to know, but Jesus do they have our number in the regular season.

[BJJ34]

Anyone else feel weird we still have 6 games left to play and it’s December 1st?

[Deja Entendu]

Anyone else feel weird we still have 6 games left to play and it’s December 1st?

Very. The extra game is dumb

[CannonFire]

I used that ESPN playoffs machine thing and here's what I got...
NFC
1. Tampa (14-3)
2. Green Bay (13-4)
3. Arizona (13-4)
4. Dallas (11-6)
5. Minnesota (10-7)
6. Los Angeles (10-7)
7. New Orleans (10-7)

AFC
1. Baltimore (13-4)
2. Los Angeles (11-6)
3. Tennessee (11-6)
4. Buffalo (11-6)
5. Cincinnati (12-5)
6. Indianapolis (11-6)
7. Kansas City (11-6)


If we lose to Buffalo, we end up as the #2 seed if everything else plays out. Buffalo also moves up to #2 in the AFC.

[CannonFire]

Anyone else feel weird we still have 6 games left to play and it’s December 1st?

No.

[MJW]

Anyone else feel weird we still have 6 games left to play and it’s December 1st?

After Thanksgiving is when it usually feels like the stretch run, but there's still almost 40% of the season left. And it won't stop here. In a few years they'll say, "We don't like the asymmetry of 17 games, let's make it 18 with 2 byes, for an even 20 weeks." I'm a bit surprised that didn't happen this time around.

[ATrain]

Anyone else feel weird we still have 6 games left to play and it’s December 1st?

After Thanksgiving is when it usually feels like the stretch run, but there's still almost 40% of the season left. And it won't stop here. In a few years they'll say, "We don't like the asymmetry of 17 games, let's make it 18 with 2 byes, for an even 20 weeks." I'm a bit surprised that didn't happen this time around.

It's about the only way the NFL can keep expanding in order to meet the capitalist fantasy of infinite linear growth.

The league is already whored out to the max for commercials and advertising. Sometimes I feel like the game is a break from commercials, not the other way around.

They'll probably add an extra bye along with game 18 so the regular season is 20 weeks long. Now that TV deals have to buy an extra two weeks worth of coverage.

Oh and it wouldn't shock me if in the next decade there's not several expansion teams added as well.

Is there such thing as too much football? Guess we'll find out..

[Xandtar]

When is the last time a team won 18 games in a season? Who was the quarterback again?

Our chances for going 18-whatever are low but not zero, and that is something we have never before been able to dream of in December. Treasure this dream, for many of us we'll never get to experience it again.

[acmillis]

After Thanksgiving is when it usually feels like the stretch run, but there's still almost 40% of the season left. And it won't stop here. In a few years they'll say, "We don't like the asymmetry of 17 games, let's make it 18 with 2 byes, for an even 20 weeks." I'm a bit surprised that didn't happen this time around.

It's about the only way the NFL can keep expanding in order to meet the capitalist fantasy of infinite linear growth.

The league is already whored out to the max for commercials and advertising. Sometimes I feel like the game is a break from commercials, not the other way around.

They'll probably add an extra bye along with game 18 so the regular season is 20 weeks long. Now that TV deals have to buy an extra two weeks worth of coverage.

Oh and it wouldn't shock me if in the next decade there's not several expansion teams added as well.

Is there such thing as too much football? Guess we'll find out..

Every league is shored out to the max. Hell, basketball literally has advertisements on the jerseys.

[MJW]

After Thanksgiving is when it usually feels like the stretch run, but there's still almost 40% of the season left. And it won't stop here. In a few years they'll say, "We don't like the asymmetry of 17 games, let's make it 18 with 2 byes, for an even 20 weeks." I'm a bit surprised that didn't happen this time around.

It's about the only way the NFL can keep expanding in order to meet the capitalist fantasy of infinite linear growth.

The league is already whored out to the max for commercials and advertising. Sometimes I feel like the game is a break from commercials, not the other way around.

They'll probably add an extra bye along with game 18 so the regular season is 20 weeks long. Now that TV deals have to buy an extra two weeks worth of coverage.

Oh and it wouldn't shock me if in the next decade there's not several expansion teams added as well.

Is there such thing as too much football? Guess we'll find out..

You're not wrong.

In the next ten years, I expect:

At least one more game.
Expansion. At least 2 new teams. Maybe 4.
Adverts on Jerseys.
Tuesday and/or Wednesday Night Games.
A revised and repackaged scouting combine (or something equivalent) to maximize that revenue stream.

And probably a dozen other angles I'm not thinking of.

[BJJ34]

Tuesdsy/Wednesday games would be a hard no for me. Thursday is already tough to watch/guys getting injured.

As for Weeks 19/20… that would push the super bowl to March.. no way the NFL wants to compete against the Tourney, right?

[Kona]

Tuesdsy/Wednesday games would be a hard no for me. Thursday is already tough to watch/guys getting injured.

As for Weeks 19/20… that would push the super bowl to March.. no way the NFL wants to compete against the Tourney, right?

Tourney doesn’t generally start til around St Paddy’s day, I think we do eventually end up going to the 18 game schedule with two byes (which IMO would be better for the players health/recovery). With the current system that would put us end of February.

I’ll absolutely take 7 months of Football, August(pre season)-February. Every other professional league runs that length or more.

[ATrain]

I'd rather the season start sooner instead of extending longer. Draft to kickoff is the worst lull in sports.

[acmillis]

I'd rather the season start sooner instead of extending longer. Draft to kickoff is the worst lull in sports.

... and just wait until this year when there's no baseball. sports fans gon' weep.

[nybf]

Tuesdsy/Wednesday games would be a hard no for me. Thursday is already tough to watch/guys getting injured.

As for Weeks 19/20… that would push the super bowl to March.. no way the NFL wants to compete against the Tourney, right?

Tourney doesn’t generally start til around St Paddy’s day, I think we do eventually end up going to the 18 game schedule with two byes (which IMO would be better for the players health/recovery). With the current system that would put us end of February.

I’ll absolutely take 7 months of Football, August(pre season)-February. Every other professional league runs that length or more.

And every other professional league has huge stretches of its season that most fans don't give a shit about. Keep spreading out the football week, and lengthening the schedule, and they'll find the same thing.

[Buc2]

It's about the only way the NFL can keep expanding in order to meet the capitalist fantasy of infinite linear growth.

The league is already whored out to the max for commercials and advertising. Sometimes I feel like the game is a break from commercials, not the other way around.

They'll probably add an extra bye along with game 18 so the regular season is 20 weeks long. Now that TV deals have to buy an extra two weeks worth of coverage.

Oh and it wouldn't shock me if in the next decade there's not several expansion teams added as well.

Is there such thing as too much football? Guess we'll find out..

You're not wrong.

In the next ten years, I expect:

At least one more game.
Expansion. At least 2 new teams. Maybe 4.
Adverts on Jerseys.
Tuesday and/or Wednesday Night Games.
A revised and repackaged scouting combine (or something equivalent) to maximize that revenue stream.

And probably a dozen other angles I'm not thinking of.

And for me, it will make little difference because I only watch one game a week. The Bucs game. So they can make however many teams they want. Go to 18 games. Whatever. I'll still only watch one game a week with a break on the bye weeks. So... Too much football? Not for me.

[13F11B]

To be honest I like Football the way it is. I do not like the need to keep increasing the number of games, etc. If things continue Football will be Hockey in ten years. No one will let their kid play and the level of athletes coming up will decrease.

[King Bootz]

The NFL didn't increase the number of games. They just swapped a Preseason game with a regular season game.

[Dread]

Too much football? No such thing.

I agree an 18 game season is on the horizon, probably when the current TV deal is ready to expire. Trim the preseason down to 2 games w/ 18 regular season ones instead of the current 3/17 format.

Live TV is dead outside of Sports and the NFL is the king of America sports, only college football can compete and even that is regional.

The vast majority of the most watched TV programs (live or otherwise) in America are NFL football games. So producing more games is good for the bottom line.

I understand there is argument for diminishing returns/saturation when to comes to too many games/too much football. But we are not at it with 17 games, so I don't think there is any evidence that would indicate 18 would be too much for the market.

[Selmon Rules]

I don't think a longer season would over saturate the market but I do believe games on more day of the week could.... Monday, Thursday, and Sunday is plenty

[MJW]

The NFL didn't increase the number of games. They just swapped a Preseason game with a regular season game.

Yes and No? They swapped out a preseason game where vets could play as little or as much as coaches wanted for a real game.

[MJW]

I don't think a longer season would over saturate the market but I do believe games on more day of the week could.... Monday, Thursday, and Sunday is plenty

And yet, on Tuesdays and Wednesdays, I often find myself searching for a MAC game or whatever to watch.

The only way it would saturate the market is if people didn't want to watch. But I feel like most do.

The age of NFL games being "events" is kind of over anyway. It has been since Thursday Night Games became standard, Saturday games became a thing, Thanksgiving Day became all-day, UK games became a feature with their 9AM kickoffs (here), etc. Now the only question the NFL is asking is, "Will more people watch this game if it's on a weird time, or if it's Sunday at 1PM or 4PM?"

[Xandtar]

I really dislike Thursday games, with the single exception of Thanksgiving Day.

Too short a week to heal and repair from the wear and tear from Sunday, let alone the 3-games-in-11-days fiasco that the Bucs once had to endure. And they devalued Monday night football to a just-another-weeknight game.

I'm waiting for them to have each team have a second host city that they play in once per year, to further dilute the franchises, e.g. Falcons breaking into the Alabama market by playing in Birmingham. This would screw over the Bucs of course since even if Jacksonville chose London on purpose, Miami would probably want and get Orlando, leaving us with... Mobile? Or would they send us to another soccer stadium in Europe, e.g. Frankfurt or Barcelona? Dare I say, Manchester? NOOOOOOO

[ATrain]

What'd the earliest we can clinch the division?

I'm thinking if we win the next three, with the saints splitting the series and sweeping the falcons, don't we clinch at that point?

[acmillis]

What'd the earliest we can clinch the division?

I'm thinking if we win the next three, with the saints splitting the series and sweeping the falcons, don't we clinch at that point?

We're such a horrible team, you actually think we're going to win this division?!?!?!?
Per Auman: Bucs only need five outcomes to clinch NFC South next weekend, and a Saints loss tonight would be the first. Bucs win their next two, Falcons beat Panthers and Saints lose to Jets next week and Bucs clinch division title in 10 days.

[ATrain]

What'd the earliest we can clinch the division?

I'm thinking if we win the next three, with the saints splitting the series and sweeping the falcons, don't we clinch at that point?

We're such a horrible team, you actually think we're going to win this division?!?!?!?
Per Auman: Bucs only need five outcomes to clinch NFC South next weekend, and a Saints loss tonight would be the first. Bucs win their next two, Falcons beat Panthers and Saints lose to Jets next week and Bucs clinch division title in 10 days.

That's earlier than I expected. Good deal. Hopefully the Bucs handle their end of this.

[BJJ34]

Cardinals 10-2 vs. Rams MNF 8:15
Packers 9-3 vs Bears SNF 8:20
Bucs 9-3 vs. Bills 4:25 PM
Cowboys 8-4 @ Football Team 1:00

Rams 8-4 @ Cardinals MNF 8:15
WFT 6-6 vs Cowboys 1:00
9ers 6-6 @ Bengals 4:25

Eagles 6-7 BYE
Vikings 5-7 vs. Steelers TNF 8:20
Panthers 5-7 Vs. Falcons 1:00
Falcons 5-7 @ Panthers 1:00
Saints 5-7 @ Jets 1:00
Giants 4-8 @ Chargers 4:05
Bears 4-8 @ Packers SNF 8:@0
Seahawks 4-8 @ Texans 1:00 PM
Eliminated:
Lions 1-10-1 @ Broncos 4:05

[Dread]

Bucs are still the 3rd seed in the NFC heading into week 14. Mostly everyone has now had their bye week and has 5 games remaining.

Bucs need the 10-2 Cardinals to drop a game for their 3rd loss to match us (Bucs would own the tiebreaker) and they still have 3 (of their 5) games left vs teams with winning records (Rams, Colts, Cowboys).

Bucs also need the 9-3 Packers to drop a game since the Packers own the tiebreaker. The Packers only game left vs a team with a winning record is a trip to Baltimore in a few weeks, which is never an easy place to win a game. The Ravens are depleted due to injury, but they are in a dogfight for playoffs seeding in the AFC and of course have Lamar Jackson who can make miracles.

The Rams are almost assured the 5th seed in the NFC. Even if they beat the Cards next Monday to split the season series 1-1 the Cards will likely have a the better divisional record should both have the same overall record.

[Primeminister]

Bucs are still the 3rd seed in the NFC heading into week 14. Mostly everyone has now had their bye week and has 5 games remaining.

Bucs need the 10-2 Cardinals to drop a game for their 3rd loss to match us (Bucs would own the tiebreaker) and they still have 3 (of their 5) games left vs teams with winning records (Rams, Colts, Cowboys).

Bucs also need the 9-3 Packers to drop a game since the Packers own the tiebreaker. The Packers only game left vs a team with a winning record is a trip to Baltimore in a few weeks, which is never an easy place to win a game. The Ravens are depleted due to injury, but they are in a dogfight for playoffs seeding in the AFC and of course have Lamar Jackson who can make miracles.

The Rams are almost assured the 5th seed in the NFC. Even if they beat the Cards next Monday to split the season series 1-1 the Cards will likely have a the better divisional record should both have the same overall record.

Do we want to play the Rams in round 1? Because personally I do not.