Playoff Positioning: Where we Stand.

[mdb1958]

Bring on the fucking Rams! No need to be scared of any team. If you are, then our team doesn't even belong on the field this postseason.

I have listened to much about that game and I still think we where our own worst enemy in that one.

[Buc2]

At least the Bucs aren't the worst 7-3 team in the NFL right now. But it was close. That honor goes to the Ravens. Well, per ESPN that is.

[Dread]

Do we want the 7-3 Rams to win or lose this weekend in Green Bay vs the 8-3 Packers?

Rams still have a games @Cardinals, @Ravens, and have their divisional nemesis 49ers the final week of the season. Rams also own a H2H tiebreaker with the Bucs.

Packers just have @Ravens, along with the Vikings and Browns who they get to play in Green Bay.

Ideally we want both of these teams to get to 5 losses (at least).

[Dread]

At least the Bucs aren't the worst 7-3 team in the NFL right now. But it was close. That honor goes to the Ravens. Well, per ESPN that is.

The Ravens have a hellasious schedule left.

Mostly because they play in arguably the toughest division top to bottom in the NFL. It's the only division where all 4 teams have a winning record.

5 games vs division foes, then the other two outside of the division are vs the Rams and Packers.

Yeesh...

[AJPG]

Do we want the 7-3 Rams to win or lose this weekend in Green Bay vs the 8-3 Packers?

Rams still have a games @Cardinals, @Ravens, and have their divisional nemesis 49ers the final week of the season. Rams also own a H2H tiebreaker with the Bucs.

Packers just have @Ravens, along with the Vikings and Browns who they get to play in Green Bay.

Ideally we want both of these teams to get to 5 losses (at least).

I'd rather see the Packers lose. Imo they're the best all around team in the NFC. Bucs need to try for #2 seed and Packers are in the way.

No. 2 seed plays #7 (NO, CAR, SF types). I like our chances at home against those type of teams.

The Rams probably end up #5 which would play #4 (DAL or GB). #3 (DAL or GB) plays #6 (MIN, NO, SF). That puts LAR, DAL, GB likely playing each other in WC round. Then ARI would play winner of that WC round (DAL, GB or LAR). Bucs would play Div round at home against #3 seed winner (DAL or GB). I like our chances there as well. If ARI loses, Bucs would have HFA. We don't need #1 seed, but #2 would be very nice.

[kaimaru]

Hey, don't forget this is available for prognosticating:

http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

Currently:
Arizona - Bye
NO @ GB
MIN @ TB
LAR @ DAL

If we lost both at Indy and Buffalo, I really see almost zero chance of a 1 seed unless the Rams, Cards, Packers, and Cowboys stumble against 2 or more inferior teams. That loss to the Rams really screwed it up for us since they and Arizona are humming at or above our record.

[MJW]

Hey, don't forget this is available for prognosticating:

http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

Currently:
Arizona - Bye
NO @ GB
MIN @ TB
LAR @ DAL

If we lost both at Indy and Buffalo, I really see almost zero chance of a 1 seed unless the Rams, Cards, Packers, and Cowboys stumble against 2 or more inferior teams. That loss to the Rams really screwed it up for us since they and Arizona are humming at or above our record.

I think we can afford one more loss, but it'd hopefully be one of our OOC games. I think two more losses to anyone will be too much. And 1 more Conference Loss could be also.

My instinct is the WFT game ultimately cost us the #1 seed. That wouldn't really freak me out most years, but the home/road splits on this team have been insane this year.

[kaimaru]

I was looking at the playoffs a little closer. If we assume all the teams we are contending with for #1 (ARI, GB, DAL, LAR) won the games they should be the certain favorites, then this was the only way I could see us winning #1 seed. Again, this is assuming ALL 5 teams beat the teams they should, and we beat either Indy or Buffalo.

Week 12
LAR beats GB

Week 14
LAR beats ARI

Week 15
BAL beats GB

Week 16
MIN beats LAR
IND beats ARI

Week 17
DAL beats ARI
BAL beats LAR

[BJJ34]

Cards 9-2 @Bears 1:00 PM
Packers 9-3 BYE
Bucs 8-3 @Falcons 1:00PM
Cowboys 7-4 @Saints TNF 8:20 PM Fox/NFLN

Rams 7-4 vs. Jaguars 4:05PM
Niners 6-5 @ Seahawks 4:25PM
WFT 5-6 @Raiders 4:05PM

Vikings 5-6 @Lions 1:00PM
Falcons 5-6 vs. Buccaneers 1:00PM
Saints 5-6 vs. Cowboys TNF 8:20 PM Fox/NFLN
Eagles 5-7 @ Jets 1:00 PM
Panthers 5-7 BYE
Giants 4-7 @Dolphins 1:00 PM
Bears 4-7 vs. Cards 1:00 PM
Seahawks 3-8 vs. Niners 4:25 PM
Lions 0-10-1 vs Vikings 1:00 PM

We should know more about the NFC Playoff picture after Thursday night.

[ATrain]

With tiebreakers, even if the Cardinals lost to the Bears and we win, we can't improve seeding position this week.

Packers got us with common opponents and AZ is way ahead on division.

Our only path to the #1 seed is to avoid tiebreakers with AZ, then sweep our division from here on out and hope that the Vikings can get a W on the road.

So, in other words, when it comes to the #1 seed, every game is must win. And yes, the #1 seed is must have for us (don't believe the rationalizing on these boards).

[nybf]

[Dread]

Bucs just need to win out. We have by far the easiest remaining schedule of the teams in the hunt for the #1 seed.

Outside of the Bills game here at RayJay the Sunday after this weeks Falcons game we should be favored by double digits in every remaining game.

The Bills will also be coming off a short week and be on the road after a huge divisional game this Monday Night vs the upstart Pats for the lead in their division.

I wont call a game against the defending Super Bowl champs a 'let down' game, but in looking at the Bills schedule there is a chance we don't get their best. If the Bucs were not the defending champs it has all the making of a let down game for the Bills.

[Defense5599]

With tiebreakers, even if the Cardinals lost to the Bears and we win, we can't improve seeding position this week.

Packers got us with common opponents and AZ is way ahead on division.

Our only path to the #1 seed is to avoid tiebreakers with AZ, then sweep our division from here on out and hope that the Vikings can get a W on the road.

So, in other words, when it comes to the #1 seed, every game is must win. And yes, the #1 seed is must have for us (don't believe the rationalizing on these boards).

I'd feel good if GB gets the #1 seed and we get the #2. Home games in the first two rounds help big time.

[Dread]

I was playing around with that playoff machine tool on ESPN;

- If the Rams can beat the Cards in a week 14 (same week we play the Bills), or even Dallas a few weeks later, to give Arizona it's 3rd loss, the Bucs would overtake the Cards in the NFC seeding.

- Packers would still be the top seeded 3 loss team if they win out, so we would just then need the Packers to pick up a 4th loss somewhere down the stretch. Looks like their game in Baltimore would be the best chance, but it would take another miracle effort from Lamar Jackson.

[Backside]

Going to Arizona really doesn’t scare me. Another trip to Lambeau is the worst case scenario, and every player on the team has already done it and won.

We seem a juggernaut at home though, and the one seed is within reach.

[King Bootz]

Not a stretch to say we NEED the #1 seed. We are a completely different team on the road than we are at home and it really isn't close. That wasn't the case last year but I do think Covid and not having packed stadiums had a lot to do with that.

[Dread]

The #1 seed gives us;

Only NFC team with 1st round bye in the Wild Card round (less chance for injury + more recovery)
Lowest remaining seed from the Wild Card round will come to RayJay in the Divisional Round (4th seed at best)
Someone will have to beat us at RayJay where we've been very good this season

So from an odds perspective it certainly plays to our favor and as others mentioned, it's within reach.

Having the #1 seed probably doubles, if not triples our chances of making it to the Super Bowl.

[13F11B]

If the Buccaneers win out they will likely get the number one seed. A great deal will depend on how the Ravens play though.

[King Bootz]

If the Buccaneers win out they will likely get the number one seed. A great deal will depend on how the Ravens play though.

Maybe I'm missing something but I think you have the wrong bird. The Cardinals need to lose at least 2 games for us to have a shot at the #1 seed. Same with GB.

[ATrain]

Outside of the Cowboys, we'll also be the least rested of the Big 5 NFC teams. We'll have played nine games straight versus the next closest team(Rams) at seven. And given that we're the oldest of the Big 5, we need that rest much more so.

Even with Brady going downhill, at home, I'd still take our chances against anyone in the NFC. But if we have to travel, I think a divisional round exit is very very likely.

If we get the #1 seed, I'd give us a solid 75% chance at making the SB. If we don't, that plummets to at best a 25% chance. Gotta get that bye.

[ATrain]

If the Buccaneers win out they will likely get the number one seed. A great deal will depend on how the Ravens play though.

Maybe I'm missing something but I think you have the wrong bird. The Cardinals need to lose at least 2 games for us to have a shot at the #1 seed. Same with GB.

No, GB just needs to lose one. AZ needs two, which is possible because they play some good teams going down the stretch. GB on the other hand would have to try really hard to just lose one game....

[Dread]

If the Buccaneers win out they will likely get the number one seed. A great deal will depend on how the Ravens play though.

Maybe I'm missing something but I think you have the wrong bird. The Cardinals need to lose at least 2 games for us to have a shot at the #1 seed. Same with GB.

According to that NFL playoff machine tool the Bucs just need the Cards to lose once and fall to 3 losses in order to overtake them.

If the Bucs win out AND the Cards lose to EITHER the Rams or Cowboys it move the Bucs over the Cards with both having 3 losses.

The Packers would need a 4th loss though for the Bucs to overtake them. In the event the Cards, Packers, and Bucs all finish 14-3 the Packers would be the #1, Bucs #2, Cards #3 according to that tool

[King Bootz]

Maybe I'm missing something but I think you have the wrong bird. The Cardinals need to lose at least 2 games for us to have a shot at the #1 seed. Same with GB.

No, GB just needs to lose one. AZ needs two, which is possible because they play some good teams going down the stretch. GB on the other hand would have to try really hard to just lose one game....

Thanks. I thought the Cardinals only had 1 loss not 2. But GB has a better conference record so we just can't tie with them.

[13F11B]

Outside of the Cowboys, we'll also be the least rested of the Big 5 NFC teams. We'll have played nine games straight versus the next closest team(Rams) at seven. And given that we're the oldest of the Big 5, we need that rest much more so.

Even with Brady going downhill, at home, I'd still take our chances against anyone in the NFC. But if we have to travel, I think a divisional round exit is very very likely.

If we get the #1 seed, I'd give us a solid 75% chance at making the SB. If we don't, that plummets to at best a 25% chance. Gotta get that bye.

Let me draw it out for you.

Packers vs Ravens Week 15 -- this is the key game that I see as the one the Packers could lose.

The Cardinals have a few that are possible but the most likely is vs the Cowboys. If they lose that game the Buccaneers win the tiebreaker due to a common opponent.

[King Bootz]

Outside of the Cowboys, we'll also be the least rested of the Big 5 NFC teams. We'll have played nine games straight versus the next closest team(Rams) at seven. And given that we're the oldest of the Big 5, we need that rest much more so.

Even with Brady going downhill, at home, I'd still take our chances against anyone in the NFC. But if we have to travel, I think a divisional round exit is very very likely.

If we get the #1 seed, I'd give us a solid 75% chance at making the SB. If we don't, that plummets to at best a 25% chance. Gotta get that bye.

Let me draw it out for you.

Packers vs Ravens Week 15 -- this is the key game that I see as the one the Packers could lose.

The Cardinals have a few that are possible but the most likely is vs the Cowboys. If they lose that game the Buccaneers win the tiebreaker due to a common opponent.

Common opponent is down the list of tie-breakers. In the event of a 3 way tie, Conference record & divisional record would both have to be the same for common opponents to even factor in. In a 2 way tie, it's just divisional record.

As it stands, AZ is 4-0 in their division with 2 home games left against the Seahawks & Rams. So we'd need them to lose against the Rams I believe as well as Dallas

[ATrain]

No, GB just needs to lose one. AZ needs two, which is possible because they play some good teams going down the stretch. GB on the other hand would have to try really hard to just lose one game....

Thanks. I thought the Cardinals only had 1 loss not 2. But GB has a better conference record so we just can't tie with them.

Nope, they also have a better common opponent record. I'm not sure it's possible to overtake the Packers through tiebreakers and the Cardinals would have to lose their next two divisional games and we'd have to win all of ours to get the tiebreaker. But at that point we'd likely have a better record than them so tiebreakers wouldn't matter.

Fact is, I don't see any realistic way we get the #1 seed through tiebreakers. Gotta man up and win out and hope for the best.

[13F11B]

Let me draw it out for you.

Packers vs Ravens Week 15 -- this is the key game that I see as the one the Packers could lose.

The Cardinals have a few that are possible but the most likely is vs the Cowboys. If they lose that game the Buccaneers win the tiebreaker due to a common opponent.

Common opponent is down the list of tie-breakers. In the event of a 3 way tie, Conference record & divisional record would both have to be the same for common opponents to even factor in. In a 2 way tie, it's just divisional record.

As it stands, AZ is 4-0 in their division with 2 home games left against the Seahawks & Rams. So we'd need them to lose against the Rams I believe as well as Dallas

I used the ESPN Playoff Machine. Please contact them about the issue

The ending records were:
Buccaneers 14-3
Cardinals 14-3
Packers 13-4
Dallas 13-4

[ATrain]

Outside of the Cowboys, we'll also be the least rested of the Big 5 NFC teams. We'll have played nine games straight versus the next closest team(Rams) at seven. And given that we're the oldest of the Big 5, we need that rest much more so.

Even with Brady going downhill, at home, I'd still take our chances against anyone in the NFC. But if we have to travel, I think a divisional round exit is very very likely.

If we get the #1 seed, I'd give us a solid 75% chance at making the SB. If we don't, that plummets to at best a 25% chance. Gotta get that bye.

Let me draw it out for you.

Packers vs Ravens Week 15 -- this is the key game that I see as the one the Packers could lose.

The Cardinals have a few that are possible but the most likely is vs the Cowboys. If they lose that game the Buccaneers win the tiebreaker due to a common opponent.

Yes we have a better shot at overtaking the Cardinals via record than the Packers. Much more so. The Cardinals have three very loseable games left while the Packers only have one.

The Ravens absolutely could beat the Packers though so there's still hope for the #1 seed.

But we have zero room for error. We burnt our buffer loss on WFT. To be fair though, the Cardinals and Packers don't have room for error either, but they have tiebreakers as an ace up their sleeve while we don't have as much firepower to break a tie.

[13F11B]

@King Bootz

Cardinals vs Buccaneers for seeding assuming Buccaneers win out and Cardinals lose to Cowboys. This also assumes the Packers lose one more. Which is why I said it depends on the Ravens.

Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs) -- Not applicable
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division -- tied at 5-3 each
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games -- Common opponents (Rams, Cowboys, Panthers) Cardinals (2-2) .500, Buccaneers (3-1) .750

Buccaneers take the tie-breaker.

Link: https://www.nfl.com/standings/tie-breaking-procedures

[IronDog]

Every time I see this thread, this pops into my head....

[Dread]

Here are the tie-breakers in order that may come into play for the top NFC seed since the Bucs don't play either the Packers or Cards (No head to head and they aren't divisional opponents).

Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
Strength of victory.
Strength of schedule.

This is why if the Packers, Bucs, and Cards all have 3 losses the Packers get the 1 seed, they would have the best conference record since they only have 2 losses within the NFC (Saints/Vikings) and both the Bucs and Cards would have 3. So the Bucs need the Packers to have more losses if we want to overtake them.

As noted the Bucs would have 3 NFC losses just like the Cards, but the Bucs would hold the 'common games' tiebreaker over the Cards should they pick up a 3rd loss vs Rams, Cowboys, or Colts (all common opponents with the Bucs) b/c 2 of those Cards losses would be common opponents (they already lost to the Panthers), whereas the Bucs would only have 1 loss among those 'common opponents' (Rams).

[Dread]

@King Bootz

Cardinals vs Buccaneers for seeding assuming Buccaneers win out and Cardinals lose to Cowboys. This also assumes the Packers lose one more. Which is why I said it depends on the Ravens.

Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs) -- Not applicable
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division -- tied at 5-3 each
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games -- Common opponents (Rams, Cowboys, Panthers) Cardinals (2-2) .500, Buccaneers (3-1) .750

Buccaneers take the tie-breaker.

Link: https://www.nfl.com/standings/tie-breaking-procedures

For clarification the Cards can lose to either the Cowboys, Bears, Colts, or Rams (all common opponents of the Bucs) for their 3rd loss of the season (and 3rd NFC loss) and the Bucs would overtake them in the NFC seeding.

There are 6 common opponent games that will potentially come into play between the Cards and Bucs and with the Panthers beating the Cards a few weeks ago both teams have one loss in those 6 games.

The Bucs are 3-1 in those game with the Panthers 2x

The Cards are 1-1 in those games with the Bears, Rams, Colts, and Cowboys remaining. They'd need to win all 4 to keep pace (assuming we beat the Panthers 2x).

Then it goes to a strength of victory tiebreaker between the Bucs and Cards since both would have the same conference record and 5-1 among common opponents.

[Buc2]

Here are the tie-breakers in order that may come into play for the top NFC seed since the Bucs don't play either the Packers or Cards (No head to head and they aren't divisional opponents).

Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
Strength of victory.
Strength of schedule.

This is why if the Packers, Bucs, and Cards all have 3 losses the Packers get the 1 seed, they would have the best conference record since they only have 2 losses within the NFC (Saints/Vikings) and both the Bucs and Cards would have 3. So the Bucs need the Packers to have more losses if we want to overtake them.

As noted the Bucs would have 3 NFC losses just like the Cards, but the Bucs would hold the 'common games' tiebreaker over the Cards should they pick up a 3rd loss vs Rams, Cowboys, or Colts (all common opponents with the Bucs) b/c 2 of those Cards losses would be common opponents (they already lost to the Panthers), whereas the Bucs would only have 1 loss among those 'common opponents' (Rams).

This is another reason why losing WFT totally sucked ass.

[Dread]

Here are the tie-breakers in order that may come into play for the top NFC seed since the Bucs don't play either the Packers or Cards (No head to head and they aren't divisional opponents).

Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
Strength of victory.
Strength of schedule.

This is why if the Packers, Bucs, and Cards all have 3 losses the Packers get the 1 seed, they would have the best conference record since they only have 2 losses within the NFC (Saints/Vikings) and both the Bucs and Cards would have 3. So the Bucs need the Packers to have more losses if we want to overtake them.

As noted the Bucs would have 3 NFC losses just like the Cards, but the Bucs would hold the 'common games' tiebreaker over the Cards should they pick up a 3rd loss vs Rams, Cowboys, or Colts (all common opponents with the Bucs) b/c 2 of those Cards losses would be common opponents (they already lost to the Panthers), whereas the Bucs would only have 1 loss among those 'common opponents' (Rams).

This is another reason why losing WFT totally sucked ass.

It sucked to lose an NFC game for sure

WFT isn't a common opponent to the Cards, so the silver lining is their loss to the Panthers is potentially more harmful than our loss to WFT when it come Bucs-Cards tiebreakers.

Green Bay seems to hold all the tiebreakers in the event we all finish with W-L records. So they're the NFC #1 seed unless a team has a better record.

[Dread]

Btw, 'Strength of Victory' is the composite record of all the team you have defeated.

I'd assume the Cards would have an edge here since they play in a better division and have that win over the Titans.