Playoff Positioning: Where we Stand.

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13F11B
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Re: Playoff Positioning: Where we Stand.

Post by 13F11B »

Dread wrote: Mon Dec 20, 2021 8:45 am Really looking forward to that Dallas - Cards game in 2 weeks.

I'd imagine we'll be rooting for the Cardinals at this point.

Lots of football left. Packers look to have an easy path to the #1 seed but other than that there is alot to be settled in the NFC playoff picture.

I still like our chances to get the #2 seed tbh even if we don't control our destiny for it.
Yes, it looks like the Cardinal will need to win that game for the Buccaneers to have a chance at the #2 seed. Not sure the Buccaneers want to play the WFT again though.
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Re: Playoff Positioning: Where we Stand.

Post by ATrain »

13F11B wrote: Mon Dec 20, 2021 8:52 am
Dread wrote: Mon Dec 20, 2021 8:45 am Really looking forward to that Dallas - Cards game in 2 weeks.

I'd imagine we'll be rooting for the Cardinals at this point.

Lots of football left. Packers look to have an easy path to the #1 seed but other than that there is alot to be settled in the NFC playoff picture.

I still like our chances to get the #2 seed tbh even if we don't control our destiny for it.
Yes, it looks like the Cardinal will need to win that game for the Buccaneers to have a chance at the #2 seed. Not sure the Buccaneers want to play the WFT again though.
Who exactly do we WANT to play? Redskins beat us. Saints embarrassed us. Rams beat us. We had a nail biter vs the Cowboys. San Fran could be problems for the defense. The Packers are better than they were last year and we'll likely have to travel there again.

I don't think any team is going to be scared of us in the playoffs and their play on the field will reflect that.
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Re: Playoff Positioning: Where we Stand.

Post by King Bootz »

Dread wrote: Mon Dec 20, 2021 8:45 am Really looking forward to that Dallas - Cards game in 2 weeks.

I'd imagine we'll be rooting for the Cardinals at this point.

Lots of football left. Packers look to have an easy path to the #1 seed but other than that there is alot to be settled in the NFC playoff picture.

I still like our chances to get the #2 seed tbh even if we don't control our destiny for it.
I usually admire your naive optimism. But I do realize and I do think you can admit that it's mostly from your heart and not your head.

Logically speaking, a Cardinals offense built around DeAndre Hopkins without DeAndre Hopkins around is going to have an extremely hard time winning out. Colts, Cowboys, Seahawks. 2 of the 3 love running the ball. And what teams have the Cardinals struggled against? Those that can and do run the ball. Their offense is also turnover prone and Indy & Dallas are 1 & 2 in that department.

I said it last night, at this point I'm worried about the Rams. Beckham is looking like the Beckham from New York, that defense is getting healthy, Stafford has been pretty good so far in December. It's more likely they win out than it is the Cardinals. So root to the heavens but damn that loss stings.
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Re: Playoff Positioning: Where we Stand.

Post by King Bootz »

Well this sucks. If the Cowboys & Rams both win out, we finish behind them no matter what. Green Bay just needs to win 2 more games and we can't catch them. A month ago we were talking and expecting #1 seed. Now we're not even in control of getting the #2 seed.
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Re: Playoff Positioning: Where we Stand.

Post by CannonFire »

I'm not concerned at all. We won 3 road playoff games last year, we'll have at least 1 home game this year, so that's an easier path. Also, with Godwin out, Fournette and Evans banged up, and our secondary still struggling to stay/get healthy... whether our games are at home or on the road is irrelevant.

Like last year, we're going to have to out-talent our opposition. I'm not a big fan of the coaching on this team... nor the game planning. Let's be honest here, people gave Todd Bowles a lot of credit in the playoffs, but how much does he deserver? We were one play in each of those 3 playoff games from losing. It's not like we blew any of them out. The only game where we totally dominated was the Chiefs game, and again, let's be honest, their guys were open and dropping everything. Their OLine was in shambles and Andy Reid, for some unknown reason, never put in an extra TE to help block. He outcoached himself that game.

Our offense is very unimaginative. We struggle to beat good teams, which are generally the teams you play in the playoffs. We beat Dallas, by 2, at home... and almost lost. We barely beat NE. We lost NO twice. We lost LA. We barely beat the Colts... well, the Colts beat themselves.

Simply, home or away doesn't matter. Our coaching is mediocre at best. AS I said though, we have Brady, so I'm not concerned, but we are going to have to out-talent our opponents again this year.
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Re: Playoff Positioning: Where we Stand.

Post by Backside »

One seed is out, the rest doesn't really matter. Other than getting that one win for the division, which shouldn't be in doubt.

Lots of potential wild card teams who I don't want to play against. Matchup is way more important than seeding.
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Re: Playoff Positioning: Where we Stand.

Post by Cheb »

The health of our team is going to matter far more than our seeding. We are limping into the playoffs, which makes it all the more likely
that we will limp out of them.
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Re: Playoff Positioning: Where we Stand.

Post by King Bootz »

Backside wrote: Thu Dec 23, 2021 10:56 am One seed is out, the rest doesn't really matter. Other than getting that one win for the division, which shouldn't be in doubt.

Lots of potential wild card teams who I don't want to play against. Matchup is way more important than seeding.
I'd say the 2 seed matters quite a bit. Yes, you'd have to play in the Wildcard round. But a win guarantees a 2nd home playoff game.


This Bucs team is a different animal at home. The less we have to go on the road the better.

People have only started saying the seeding doesn't matter because of the Saints loss Sunday.
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Re: Playoff Positioning: Where we Stand.

Post by Redrum »

Saints Siemen and Hill both to Covid list.
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Re: Playoff Positioning: Where we Stand.

Post by Backside »

Also, seeing kickers routinely hit 50+ yarders has been rough this year. Anything over 40 for Succop I am worried before he kicks. The 45 yarder last Sunday I never thought had a chance. Not what you want from your kicker who just got a big deal. He was so clutch in the playoffs last year, so hopefully that happens again. But he’s been bad this year, as has Pinion. Meanwhile Matt Gay just made the pro bowl, and is kicking great.

If injuries don’t sink us, special teams would be next in line.
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Re: Playoff Positioning: Where we Stand.

Post by IchabodCrane84 »

Redrum wrote: Thu Dec 23, 2021 2:35 pm Saints Siemen and Hill both to Covid list.
Somewhere there's video of Perriman in a hoodie sneaking out of the Saints locker room.
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Re: Playoff Positioning: Where we Stand.

Post by King Bootz »

Dallas clinches their playoff berth with the Niners loss.
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Re: Playoff Positioning: Where we Stand.

Post by MJW »

Backside wrote: Thu Dec 23, 2021 3:42 pm Also, seeing kickers routinely hit 50+ yarders has been rough this year. Anything over 40 for Succop I am worried before he kicks. The 45 yarder last Sunday I never thought had a chance. Not what you want from your kicker who just got a big deal. He was so clutch in the playoffs last year, so hopefully that happens again. But he’s been bad this year, as has Pinion. Meanwhile Matt Gay just made the pro bowl, and is kicking great.

If injuries don’t sink us, special teams would be next in line.
Succop regressing was inevitable. He was about a career 81% kicker coming into last season. He hit over 90% in 2020. He didn't figure out some secret to kicking at age 34 after 13 years and multiple teams. He just...had an outlier year. Now he's back at 81%, which is almost exactly where he was his first 12 years in the league.

The 90% guy isn't coming back. All we can ask is that the 1 out of 5 he misses (and 1 out of 15 or so XPs he misses) don't come in crucial situations.
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Re: Playoff Positioning: Where we Stand.

Post by NeezDuts »

Stats are for losers #yungry
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Re: Playoff Positioning: Where we Stand.

Post by Xandtar »

If we can't win any of the next three games, why would we deserve a playoff berth? Let's just win them all and let the seedings take care of themselves.
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Re: Playoff Positioning: Where we Stand.

Post by BJJ34 »

Sorry I've been busy this week with work, it's been a long week. Merry Christmas, here's the updated scenarios after Ten/SF...

Packers 11-3* vs. Browns (7-7) 4:30 Today NFL Network Remaining: vs. Vikings @ Lions
Cowboys 10-4* vs. WFT(6-8) 8:20 SNF NBC Remaining: vs. Cardinals, @ Eagles
Bucs 10-4 @ Panthers (5-9) 1:00 Sunday Fox Remaining: vs. Jets, vs. Panthers
Cards 10-4 vs. Colts (7-7) 8:15 Tonight NFL Network Remaining: @ Cowboys, vs. Seahawks.

Rams 10-4 @ Vikings(7-7) 1:00 Sunday Fox Remaining: @ Ravens, vs. Niners
Niners 8-7 L @ Titans 20-17. Remaining: vs. Texans, @ Rams
Vikings 7-7 vs. Rams(10-4) 1:00 Sunday Fox Remaining: @ Packers, vs. Bears.

Eagles 7-7 vs. Giants(4-10) 1:00 Sunday Fox Remaining: @ WFT, vs. Cowboys
Saints 7-7 vs. Dolphins (7-7) MNF 8:15 ESPN Remaining: vs. Panthers, @ Falcons
WFT 6-8 @ Cowboys(10-4) 8:20 SNF NBC. Remaining: vs. Eagles, @ Giants
Falcons 6-8 vs. Lions (2-11-1) 1:00 Sunday Fox Remaining: @ Bills ,vs. Saints
Panthers 5-9 vs. Bucs(10-4) 1:00 Sunday Fox Remaining: @ Saints,@ Bucs
Seahawks 5-9 vs. Bears (4-10) 1:00 Sunday Fox Remaining: . vs. Lions@ Cards
Giants 4-10 @ Eagles (7-7) 1:00 Sunday Fox Remaining: vs. vs. Bears,WFT

Eliminated:
Bears 4-10
Lions 2-11-1

Some absolutely crazy scenarios going on with only the *Cowboys and *Packers having clinched so far.

Cowboys with the Niners loss on Thursday.

The NFC wildcard is wide open. if the Falcons show up, they could be the thorn in the Saints side. The Saints without any QB vs. an inspired Dolphins Squad. That Falcons/Saints game could be for all the marbles in the NFC WC.

Vikings/Rams is a huge game.
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Re: Playoff Positioning: Where we Stand.

Post by Dread »

For the #2 seed the Bucs need;

1) Win vs the Jets and Panthers and;
2) Rams lose to EITHER the Ravens (in Baltimore) or to the 49ers (who the Rams have not defeated since 2018 when the Rams went to the Super Bowl).
3) Packers win both remaining games (Vikings and Lions)

Assuming Dallas beats the Cardinals and the Eagles to finish 13-4 also the Bucs would own the h2h in a 2-way tie.

The problem for the Bucs and potentially how a 13-4 team could be the 4 seed is our conference record would be worse that the Packers, Cowboys, and Rams and in the event of a 3-way tie it would go to conference record.

I still believe a 13-4 Bucs team will end up with the #2 seed. We'll see how it plays out...
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Re: Playoff Positioning: Where we Stand.

Post by King Bootz »

@Dread where do you see the losses coming?
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Re: Playoff Positioning: Where we Stand.

Post by IronDog »

So if Rogers lays an egg, or they just relax and rest, and lose both remaining games, and Brady pulls his ragtag second stringers, and maybe third, and the Bucs win out, and I'll be generous and give the Cowgirls and the Sheep a game both ways, what does that do for seeding. It's not something I have attempted to play around with, and I typically only watch our guys play each week, so I don't mesh with all the intricacies. It just seems a 13-4 Bucs would take a 12-5 Packers
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Re: Playoff Positioning: Where we Stand.

Post by CannonFire »

The Bucs lose every tie-breaker except for a 1:1 tie with Dallas, because all of our losses are vs NFC teams. Green Bay, Dallas, & LA all have a non-conference loss. Basically, the only way the Bucs don't end up as the #4-seed is if the Rams lose one of their last games.

Regardless of our seeding and our opponents, I'm not concerned at all. We have a better team than the other 31 teams in the league. They just have to execute.
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Re: Playoff Positioning: Where we Stand.

Post by King Bootz »

IronDog wrote: Wed Dec 29, 2021 3:35 pm So if Rogers lays an egg, or they just relax and rest, and lose both remaining games, and Brady pulls his ragtag second stringers, and maybe third, and the Bucs win out, and I'll be generous and give the Cowgirls and the Sheep a game both ways, what does that do for seeding. It's not something I have attempted to play around with, and I typically only watch our guys play each week, so I don't mesh with all the intricacies. It just seems a 13-4 Bucs would take a 12-5 Packers
The Packers aren't resting anybody until they lock up the #1 seed, which they can do as early as this Sunday if Dallas loses to Arizona and they beat the Vikings. In a tie, Dallas is the only other team that can get the #1 seed.
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Re: Playoff Positioning: Where we Stand.

Post by Dread »

King Bootz wrote: Wed Dec 29, 2021 2:24 pm @Dread where do you see the losses coming?
We just need 1 loss (singular, not "losses") from the Rams to get the #2 seed providing us and the Packers win out.

So as stated, either in Baltimore or to the 49ers.

The Rams have some similarity to the Bucs in regards to how both teams need to establish a physical identity on offense down the stretch. The Rams are have started to get back to the ground game with Sony Michel, and with Cam Akers set to return they may get back to the best version of the that Sean McVay offense which is having the run set up the pass.

I'm still not a believer in the Rams Oline, especially along the interior. A physical defensive front will make them one-dimensional and I still don't believe Matt Stafford is winning many playoff games if everything on offense flows through him.
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Re: Playoff Positioning: Where we Stand.

Post by Dread »

CannonFire wrote: Wed Dec 29, 2021 4:03 pm The Bucs lose every tie-breaker except for a 1:1 tie with Dallas, because all of our losses are vs NFC teams. Green Bay, Dallas, & LA all have a non-conference loss. Basically, the only way the Bucs don't end up as the #4-seed is if the Rams lose one of their last games.

Regardless of our seeding and our opponents, I'm not concerned at all. We have a better team than the other 31 teams in the league. They just have to execute.
I think this is correct.

The only tie (record wise) we want is with the Cowboys. So unless the Packers lose twice we'd rather they just win out also. We don't need the Cowboys to lose for the #2 seed, but a Cowboys loss would open up the 3rd seed.
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Re: Playoff Positioning: Where we Stand.

Post by King Bootz »

Dread wrote: Wed Dec 29, 2021 5:27 pm
King Bootz wrote: Wed Dec 29, 2021 2:24 pm @Dread where do you see the losses coming?
We just need 1 loss (singular, not "losses") from the Rams to get the #2 seed providing us and the Packers win out.

So as stated, either in Baltimore or to the 49ers.

The Rams have some similarity to the Bucs in regards to how both teams need to establish a physical identity on offense down the stretch. The Rams are have started to get back to the ground game with Sony Michel, and with Cam Akers set to return they may get back to the best version of the that Sean McVay offense which is having the run set up the pass.

I'm still not a believer in the Rams Oline, especially along the interior. A physical defensive front will make them one-dimensional and I still don't believe Matt Stafford is winning many playoff games if everything on offense flows through him.
I was asking more so for a specific prediction. You said you believe a 13-4 Bucs team gets the #2 seed. I'm asking where do you see the other teams failing specifically.

I could see San Francisco much more than Baltimore. They are tapped out at this point. You can never count them out with Lamar Jackson. But they aren't the physical front you speak about right now. Way too many injuries at this point. They are done.
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Re: Playoff Positioning: Where we Stand.

Post by kaimaru »

King Bootz wrote: Wed Dec 29, 2021 6:07 pm
Dread wrote: Wed Dec 29, 2021 5:27 pm
We just need 1 loss (singular, not "losses") from the Rams to get the #2 seed providing us and the Packers win out.

So as stated, either in Baltimore or to the 49ers.

The Rams have some similarity to the Bucs in regards to how both teams need to establish a physical identity on offense down the stretch. The Rams are have started to get back to the ground game with Sony Michel, and with Cam Akers set to return they may get back to the best version of the that Sean McVay offense which is having the run set up the pass.

I'm still not a believer in the Rams Oline, especially along the interior. A physical defensive front will make them one-dimensional and I still don't believe Matt Stafford is winning many playoff games if everything on offense flows through him.
I was asking more so for a specific prediction. You said you believe a 13-4 Bucs team gets the #2 seed. I'm asking where do you see the other teams failing specifically.

I could see San Francisco much more than Baltimore. They are tapped out at this point. You can never count them out with Lamar Jackson. But they aren't the physical front you speak about right now. Way too many injuries at this point. They are done.
Lamar Jackson was back at practice today, but it was noted with a significant limp. Unless he was hamming up for the news writers, then I think it will be Huntley again. It might be as Harbaugh seemed more positive than you would think if your starting QB was limping as reported.

That said, since they said there is a chance Jimmy G can go this week, I would think he would definitely be ready for the Rams game. It may affect his throwing like when Russell Wilson returned from his injury.

I know you didn't ask me, but I would say that a hampered Jackson and the fact the Ravens are hurting all over that Rams should win that game. That said a lot of WTF happened games have occurred this year. Jimmy G and the 49ers pasted the Rams back in November. I know this is in LA, but if I was betting the Rams would lose, it would be to the 49ers.
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Re: Playoff Positioning: Where we Stand.

Post by King Bootz »

kaimaru wrote: Wed Dec 29, 2021 10:13 pm
King Bootz wrote: Wed Dec 29, 2021 6:07 pm

I was asking more so for a specific prediction. You said you believe a 13-4 Bucs team gets the #2 seed. I'm asking where do you see the other teams failing specifically.

I could see San Francisco much more than Baltimore. They are tapped out at this point. You can never count them out with Lamar Jackson. But they aren't the physical front you speak about right now. Way too many injuries at this point. They are done.
Lamar Jackson was back at practice today, but it was noted with a significant limp. Unless he was hamming up for the news writers, then I think it will be Huntley again. It might be as Harbaugh seemed more positive than you would think if your starting QB was limping as reported.

That said, since they said there is a chance Jimmy G can go this week, I would think he would definitely be ready for the Rams game. It may affect his throwing like when Russell Wilson returned from his injury.

I know you didn't ask me, but I would say that a hampered Jackson and the fact the Ravens are hurting all over that Rams should win that game. That said a lot of WTF happened games have occurred this year. Jimmy G and the 49ers pasted the Rams back in November. I know this is in LA, but if I was betting the Rams would lose, it would be to the 49ers.
Yea I saw the situation in Baltimore. They need to shut Lamar down for the year.

San Fran is probably the most WTF team in football. They have all the talent in the world to hang with anybody but Jimmy is clearly holding them back. This hand injury is all a blur. Now I'm supposed to believe with a fractured thumb and grade 3 ligament sprain, which is a torn ligament, that all is well? Don't buy it. Gotta see it to believe it.

I think San Francisco has enough to beat the Texans. But against the Rams in LA, I don't think they can get by with a hampered Jimmy. Hopefully Lance plays that game. It'll give them a much better chance to win.
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Re: Playoff Positioning: Where we Stand.

Post by BJJ34 »

1. Packers* 12-3 vs. Vikings 8:20 / @ Lions
2. Cowboys* 11-4 vs. Cards 4:25 /@ Eagles
3. Rams* 11-4 @ Ravens 1:00 / Vs. Niners
4. Bucs* 11-4 @ Jets 1:00 / Vs. Panthers
5. Cards* 11-4 @ Cowboys 4:25 / vs. Seahawks
6. Niners 8-7 vs. Texans 4:05 / @ Rams
7. Eagles 8-7 @ WFT 1:00 /vs. Cowboys

8. Vikings 7-8 @ Packers 8:20 / vs. Bears
9. Falcons 7-8 @ Bills 1:00 / Vs. Saints
10. Saints 7-8 vs. Panthers 4:25 / @ Falcons

11. WFT 6-9 vs. Eagles 1:00 / @ Giants

ELIMINATED.
Panthers, Bears, Seahawks, Giants, Lions
Last edited by BJJ34 on Fri Dec 31, 2021 2:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Playoff Positioning: Where we Stand.

Post by King Bootz »

BJJ34 wrote: Thu Dec 30, 2021 6:33 pm 1. Packers* 12-3 vs. Vikings 8:20 / @ Lions
2. Cowboys* 11-4 vs. Cards 4:25 /@ Eagles
3. Rams* 11-4 @ Ravens 1:00 / Vs. Niners
4. Bucs* 11-4 @ Jets 1:00 / Vs. Panthers
5. Cards* 11-4 @ Cowboys 4:25 / vs. Seahawks
6. Niners 8-6 vs. Texans 4:05 / @ Rams
7. Eagles 8-6 @ WFT 1:00 /vs. Cowboys

8. Vikings 7-8 @ Packers 8:20 / vs. Bears
9. Falcons 7-8 @ Bills 1:00 / Vs. Saints
10. Saints 7-8 vs. Panthers 4:25 / @ Falcons

11. WFT 6-9 vs. Eagles 1:00 / @ Giants

ELIMINATED.
Panthers, Bears, Seahawks, Giants, Lions
I think the top 4 seeds go 2-0, 5-7 seeds go 1-1 and remain the same.
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Re: Playoff Positioning: Where we Stand.

Post by BJJ34 »

King Bootz wrote: Thu Dec 30, 2021 6:35 pm
BJJ34 wrote: Thu Dec 30, 2021 6:33 pm 1. Packers* 12-3 vs. Vikings 8:20 / @ Lions
2. Cowboys* 11-4 vs. Cards 4:25 /@ Eagles
3. Rams* 11-4 @ Ravens 1:00 / Vs. Niners
4. Bucs* 11-4 @ Jets 1:00 / Vs. Panthers
5. Cards* 11-4 @ Cowboys 4:25 / vs. Seahawks
6. Niners 8-6 vs. Texans 4:05 / @ Rams
7. Eagles 8-6 @ WFT 1:00 /vs. Cowboys

8. Vikings 7-8 @ Packers 8:20 / vs. Bears
9. Falcons 7-8 @ Bills 1:00 / Vs. Saints
10. Saints 7-8 vs. Panthers 4:25 / @ Falcons

11. WFT 6-9 vs. Eagles 1:00 / @ Giants

ELIMINATED.
Panthers, Bears, Seahawks, Giants, Lions
I think the top 4 seeds go 2-0, 5-7 seeds go 1-1 and remain the same.
Saints are the only team who can benefit from that happening, right? What are tiebreakers if they go 2-0?
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Re: Playoff Positioning: Where we Stand.

Post by King Bootz »

BJJ34 wrote: Thu Dec 30, 2021 6:43 pm
King Bootz wrote: Thu Dec 30, 2021 6:35 pm

I think the top 4 seeds go 2-0, 5-7 seeds go 1-1 and remain the same.
Saints are the only team who can benefit from that happening, right? What are tiebreakers if they go 2-0?
No they don't benefit at all. They'd finish 8th
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Re: Playoff Positioning: Where we Stand.

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King Bootz wrote: Thu Dec 30, 2021 6:53 pm
BJJ34 wrote: Thu Dec 30, 2021 6:43 pm

Saints are the only team who can benefit from that happening, right? What are tiebreakers if they go 2-0?
No they don't benefit at all. They'd finish 8th
http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

Check this buddy, if those results hold like you said. The Saints make it if they go 2-0. It knocks the Niners out.
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Re: Playoff Positioning: Where we Stand.

Post by King Bootz »

BJJ34 wrote: Thu Dec 30, 2021 7:10 pm
King Bootz wrote: Thu Dec 30, 2021 6:53 pm

No they don't benefit at all. They'd finish 8th
http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

Check this buddy, if those results hold like you said. The Saints make it if they go 2-0. It knocks the Niners out.
I stand corrected
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Re: Playoff Positioning: Where we Stand.

Post by MJW »

We're not getting the #1.

I'd rather not get the #4, because the Rams/Cardinals are both head and shoulders above the other likely playoff teams.

I wouldn't mind another shot at the Saints TBH. We know what happens the third time.
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Re: Playoff Positioning: Where we Stand.

Post by Kress »

I thought the math looked strange. Niners and Eagles are both 8-7, not 8-6.
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Re: Playoff Positioning: Where we Stand.

Post by King Bootz »

Kress wrote: Fri Dec 31, 2021 8:50 am I thought the math looked strange. Niners and Eagles are both 8-7, not 8-6.
Yea we're 15 games in
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