Byron Leftwich: Hired

[Selmon Rules]

One could also believe that Leftwich learned more about this offense working with Brady and can apply that into the future

[Snake]

One could also believe that Leftwich learned more about this offense working with Brady and can apply that into the future

if I’m hiring someone who comes with a schematic dogma, they’re gonna have to be masters at that offense. Not someone still picking up parts of it a few months before I hire them to coach my generational QB prospect who is on a rookie deal.

[Nobody]

What was Bruce Arians DVOA with Arizona and Indianapolis? I tried to find it, but I can’t.

@Nobody

2007: 10
2008: 21
2009: 7
2010: 5
2011: 6
2012: 18
2013: 20
2014: 23
2015: 4
2016: 22
2017: 29

[Snake]

What was Bruce Arians DVOA with Arizona and Indianapolis? I tried to find it, but I can’t.

@Nobody

2007: 10 - prime big ben
2008: 21 - prime big ben
2009: 7 - prime big ben
2010: 5 - prime big ben for 12 games, Batch/Dixon for 4
2011: 6 - prime big ben
2012: 18 - rookie andrew luck, took over for Pagano in week 5
2013: 20 - 34 y/o Carson Palmer, young Larry Fitz
2014: 23 - ditto
2015: 4 - Palmer + pro bowl Fitz + 30 y/o Chris Johnson and David Johnson backfield
2016: 22 - 37 y/o Palmer, prime David Johnson
2017: 29 - 38 y/o Palmer for 5 games, Gabbert for 7 games, Stanton for 4

added some context

[Tnbandwagoner]

Brady hides a lot of deficiencies of game planning and playcalling.

Without Brady

2019: 23rd DVOA offense

With Brady

2020: 3rd DVOA offense
2021: 1st DVOA offense


This is historically a high risk, high return offense that (a) piles up Sacks against QB, (b) struggles in the RZ, (c) creates big plays in the passing game, (d) creates turnover-worthy-plays.

Brady subverts (a)
Brady inverts (b)
Brady exploits (c)
Brady minimizes (d)


Leftwich absolutely got better. But let’s not pretend that Brady wasn’t the overwhelming influence on the success of this offense (and the bailing out of this defense which had its share of 4th Q struggles that will lead to losses without elite QB play).

The odds we don’t struggle significantly on offense next year is very low. If we crack top 15 DVOA offense I’d be very surprised.

Pretty much sums it up.

It's unfathomable to me that anyone could watch just this season and all the times we ended up punting because we tried a long pass on third-and-two, and still think Leftwich is a good OC, much less one that was responsible for our offensive numbers.

I just did a little quick research. Thirteen out of the twenty seasons he played, Brady led a top-five offense going by points scored per game. He had three different OCs at New England and had at least one top-four offense with each - and Bill O'Brien was only the OC for one year. Brady led a top-ten offense three different times with no offensive coordinator for the season, and in 2010 he had the top-scoring offense in the league with no OC, averaging 32.4 points per game. The team also had no DC that year. Only once did he lead an offense that finished outside the top ten in scoring, and that was 2003 when they were 12th.

[Terry Tate]

Brady hides a lot of deficiencies of game planning and playcalling.

Without Brady

2019: 23rd DVOA offense

With Brady

2020: 3rd DVOA offense
2021: 1st DVOA offense


This is historically a high risk, high return offense that (a) piles up Sacks against QB, (b) struggles in the RZ, (c) creates big plays in the passing game, (d) creates turnover-worthy-plays.

Brady subverts (a)
Brady inverts (b)
Brady exploits (c)
Brady minimizes (d)


Leftwich absolutely got better. But let’s not pretend that Brady wasn’t the overwhelming influence on the success of this offense (and the bailing out of this defense which had its share of 4th Q struggles that will lead to losses without elite QB play).

The odds we don’t struggle significantly on offense next year is very low. If we crack top 15 DVOA offense I’d be very surprised.

A big part of that isn't Brady's play on the field, it was him having the status to tell the coaches to change the offense to fit him and the talent around him combined with the brains and experience to tell them how to do it.

[Primeminister]

What was Bruce Arians DVOA with Arizona and Indianapolis? I tried to find it, but I can’t.

@Nobody

2007: 10
2008: 21
2009: 7
2010: 5
2011: 6
2012: 18
2013: 20
2014: 23
2015: 4
2016: 22
2017: 29

Thank you. So 5 out of 11 years are top 10. I was curious if he normally had a horrible offensive according to DVOA. This is a flip of the coin within his system before Brady.

[Cheb]

Sometimes it can be difficult to tell where an OC ends and his QB begins; often the only real way to know is by comparing their successes when they are no longer together.

Assuming Byron Leftwich stays in Tampa for this upcoming season, we will know this time next year whether or not Leftwich is as good as advertised, when he doesn't have Brady around.

[Babeinbucland]

While obviously you'd like the picks, good on Leftwich for sticking to his guns with that clown organization. I'm not sure Jacksonville knows what the fuck they're doing anymore.

Anymore?

[Doctor]

Y'all realize we were also top 3 in 2019 with Winston right?

"OhHh BuT 30 InTs!" As if Lefty was out there calling pick plays.

Obviously, Brady makes a difference. I was banging the drum for him for a reason. He's a top chef and we put him in a top kitchen. But just because he's finished his stay here doesn't mean we need to re-do the whole kitchen.

[King Bootz]

I feel bad for Byron. I felt he deserved this opportunity. That said, if Khan wants to live and die on the Trent Baalke sword, let him. Guy is an insufferable piece of shit who kisses ass like no other. And he sucks at constructing a roster.

This is a blessing in disguise for him. He'll no doubt get his opportunity but Jacksonville is in no way in better shape with Pederson. That SB ring is what blinded Khan. Outside of that lightning in a bottle season, Pederson was 29-34-1 with the Eagles with no other double digit win season.

[Phantom]

I have a terrible feeling that he’ll be the next Bucs coach after Arians retires. I hope not

[Cheb]

I have a terrible feeling that he’ll be the next Bucs coach after Arians retires. I hope not

I think it's Bowles' job to lose when Arians is done, but I could be wrong.

Maybe we will do something off the wall, like hire neither of them. Heck, maybe they could be co-head coaches. Who knows.

[real bucs fan]

I have a terrible feeling that he’ll be the next Bucs coach after Arians retires. I hope not

I think it's Bowles' job to lose when Arians is done, but I could be wrong.

Maybe we will do something off the wall, like hire neither of them. Heck, maybe they could be co-head coaches. Who knows.

Going with Bowles as HC allows Harold Goodwin to step in as OC. Does seem the most likely scenario.

If Bowles were the one to leave, who on the defensive staff would be the favorite to take over as DC? Foote?

[MJW]

I think it's Bowles' job to lose when Arians is done, but I could be wrong.

Maybe we will do something off the wall, like hire neither of them. Heck, maybe they could be co-head coaches. Who knows.

Going with Bowles as HC allows Harold Goodwin to step in as OC. Does seem the most likely scenario.

If Bowles were the one to leave, who on the defensive staff would be the favorite to take over as DC? Foote?

I've heard Foote would be the favorite. Kacy Rodgers was also Bowles's DC with the Jets so that can't be discounted. Presumably if Leftwich leaves first, he's taking one of them with him to be HIS DC. That's usually what happens.

Only problem with Goodwin - who I understand is a good coach - as OC with Bowles as HC is Goodwin has never called plays, and presumably he'd be doing that in this scenario.

Frankly, I'm kind of hoping that when Arians calls it a day (I'm guessing it's after this season), we don't feel married to his staff. I don't want to pass on a better coaching candidate because Licht feels he owes it to Bowles (or Leftwich) for some reason. I'll never forget the Steelers, with Russ Grimm and Ken Wisenhunt both in-house and competing to succeed Cowher, going with young, relatively anonymous Mike Tomlin instead. We gotta bring that energy to this process.

[real bucs fan]

Going with Bowles as HC allows Harold Goodwin to step in as OC. Does seem the most likely scenario.

If Bowles were the one to leave, who on the defensive staff would be the favorite to take over as DC? Foote?

I've heard Foote would be the favorite. Kacy Rodgers was also Bowles's DC with the Jets so that can't be discounted. Presumably if Leftwich leaves first, he's taking one of them with him to be HIS DC. That's usually what happens.

Only problem with Goodwin - who I understand is a good coach - as OC with Bowles as HC is Goodwin has never called plays, and presumably he'd be doing that in this scenario.

Frankly, I'm kind of hoping that when Arians calls it a day (I'm guessing it's after this season), we don't feel married to his staff. I don't want to pass on a better coaching candidate because Licht feels he owes it to Bowles (or Leftwich) for some reason. I'll never forget the Steelers, with Russ Grimm and Ken Wisenhunt both in-house and competing to succeed Cowher, going with young, relatively anonymous Mike Tomlin instead. We gotta bring that energy to this process.

I’m hoping we keep rolling with this staff. It’s a great staff. I know we lost Brady, and Arians will be gone soon as well, but o think we have a great culture that’s present and to me the best case scenario would be Leftwich as HC and Bowles staying on as DC.

[Doctor]

What the heck is with all this post-Arians talk?

Has something actually been said or is this just one of those "But he's old..." things?
Maybe if he hadn't retired once before, but having already done so and come back I can't imagine the retired life is all that alluring to him.

[The Outsider]

Fuckin Leftwich can't even get us a comp pick. Worst OC ever. Makes Greg Olson look competent.

[The Outsider]

What the heck is with all this post-Arians talk?

Has something actually been said or is this just one of those "But he's old..." things?
Maybe if he hadn't retired once before, but having already done so and come back I can't imagine the retired life is all that alluring to him.

I mean he did put a window of 2 years on his career when asked about it last year so it isn't an unreasonable discussion to be having.

[nybf]

Leftwich has been hired for 2 weeks and still doesn't have a new job.

[Doctor]

What the heck is with all this post-Arians talk?

Has something actually been said or is this just one of those "But he's old..." things?
Maybe if he hadn't retired once before, but having already done so and come back I can't imagine the retired life is all that alluring to him.

I mean he did put a window of 2 years on his career when asked about it last year so it isn't an unreasonable discussion to be having.

Link? Not that I don't believe you, I just must have missed it. Last one I read he said he didn't foresee it anytime soon.

[13F11B]

I mean he did put a window of 2 years on his career when asked about it last year so it isn't an unreasonable discussion to be having.

Link? Not that I don't believe you, I just must have missed it. Last one I read he said he didn't foresee it anytime soon.

I vaguely remember some statement that tied Brady's contract to Arians' retirement. I tried to find it but Google is not cooperating right now. I may have read it wrong though. It would be nice to have Arians stay with us for a while but his previous health issues are always a concern.

[MJW]

What the heck is with all this post-Arians talk?

Has something actually been said or is this just one of those "But he's old..." things?
Maybe if he hadn't retired once before, but having already done so and come back I can't imagine the retired life is all that alluring to him.

Dude is 70. And if we're on the cusp of a rebuild, it might be best for both parties to start the next phase. It's really that simple. Depending on what happens this offseason, it could be 2-3 years *minimum* before we're in a position to make another run. At which point Arians will be in his mid-70s,

[The Outsider]

I mean he did put a window of 2 years on his career when asked about it last year so it isn't an unreasonable discussion to be having.

Link? Not that I don't believe you, I just must have missed it. Last one I read he said he didn't foresee it anytime soon.

It was during some interview in the middle of the season. I'm not going to look it up though, because I'm lazy.

[kaimaru]

Dude is 70. And if we're on the cusp of a rebuild, it might be best for both parties to start the next phase.

Biden is 79. Might as well retire and start over.

Arians and Licht have both said (and I have said this in numerous threads) that they were still in a Super Bowl window. So no matter what your fantasy is, it ain't going to happen. I have been giving you the benefit of the doubt for way too long. I have now decided to go with the vocal majority about you that you have both low football acumen (ie. horrible takes) and you obviously refuse to accept reality. And that's something since I also have a low football acumen but shit man. At least I read what is going on.

[MJW]

Dude is 70. And if we're on the cusp of a rebuild, it might be best for both parties to start the next phase.

Biden is 79. Might as well retire and start over.

This is maybe not the great argument you think it is.

[kaimaru]

Biden is 79. Might as well retire and start over.

This is maybe not the great argument you think it is.

It was a joke.

[mdb1958]

Do we get a draft pick for losing Mike Caldwell?

[MJW]

Do we get a draft pick for losing Mike Caldwell?

No. Only for Head Coaches and GMs.

[Doctor]

Okay then, while we're at it why the heck do you say we're in the cusp of a rebuild??

We're not an old team by any means.

[uscbucsfan]

Okay then, while we're at it why the heck do you say we're in the cusp of a rebuild??

We're not an old team by any means.

Needing a QB is almost rebuild definition in the current NFL.

Adding in potentially starting DT, EDGE, CB, Safety, C, RB, WR2, TE1, G...We were the third oldest team in the league last year. 2nd on offense, 3rd on Defense. Brady shifts that number up on offense, but we do have some really good young talent.

[Doctor]

That really seems to be the shallow thinking of a lot of people. No sure fire, locked in franchise QB = rebuild.
Yet we ignore when teams with those "franchise QBs" spin their wheels for years (ala Rivers) or when great teams with "good enough" QBs get the top seed (Titans) or repeatedly make conference championship games (9ers).

I get we don't have answers at QB and I get how that could be bit scary. But miss me with all this rebuild nonsense.

[uscbucsfan]

That really seems to be the shallow thinking of a lot of people. No sure fire, locked in franchise QB = rebuild.
Yet we ignore when teams with those "franchise QBs" spin their wheels for years (ala Rivers) or when great teams with "good enough" QBs get the top seed (Titans) or repeatedly make conference championship games (9ers).

I get we don't have answers at QB and I get how that could be bit scary. But miss me with all this rebuild nonsense.

The point of this perspective is provided from OBP. Licht saying we will explore other QBs, our old coach, and the window with cap/talent potentially closing (could be kept open with various options).

If we go out and try to get a Jimmy G, Bridgewater, etc...That means we aren't confident in what we have, still want to win, but will provide very little confidence considering how much Brady had to lift this team up with those choices. Our offense if very QB dependent unlike the Titans or 49ers, who still fail when their QB is asked to take that next step.

It's a logical concern given our team, the history, our coaching staff, and the last 2 seasons of play.

[Snake]

Yes it definitely asks a lot of the quarterback. And traditionally it doesn’t use tight ends. Until Arians had Gronkowski. TE is usually a young player Safety net. Pass catching running backs are usually a good safety net.

As of today, we have neither.

[The Outsider]

IMO, the cap thing is overblown considering the new tv deal kicks in next year and the cap is going to go up a ton from even this season.