Divisional match-up discussion: Rams @ Bucs

[Pirate Life]

I think last I saw the Packers were the biggest favorite this weekend at -5.5.

All 4 of these matchups are going to be very close.

They expect GB to slaughter SF, -6 -10

Word is Jimmy G's hand and shoulder are not good. Strangely, if that means they put it in the hands of Mitchell and Deebo running the ball it's a bigger threat to GB as their run D is terrible. Since week 10: 27th DVOA, 27th EPA, 32nd success rate and 32nd explosive runs.

[Buc2]

On interesting line is BUF, KC

KC -2.5, that is crazy....

I think last I saw the Packers were the biggest favorite this weekend at -5.5.

All 4 of these matchups are going to be very close.

Naw. I think there will be at least one blowout. Could even be the Rams blowing out Tampa.

[Buc2]

The key for a Bucs victory is getting after Stafford. He’s taken some good shots lately and if we can hobble him we can slow that O down. Offensively we need to run it down their throats and for Brady to do his best surgeon impression. Quick accurate strikes.

Where have you been? Not ill I hope?

[Backside]

The betting line keeps flip flopping around.

TB -3 one minute.
LA -3.5 the next.

The action has to be unreal.

No… it would never jump 6.5 points that quick. I see Bucs as 2 to three point favorites anywhere I look. If you can link something that has Rams as favorites, but I can’t find anything. Those kind of fluctuations are unheard of.

[King Bootz]

Bucs and Chiefs only 2.5 favs at home? Wow.

[OneBuc]

To be the best, you gotta beat the best.

Go Bucs!

Bucs are the best until anyone shows otherwise. They have the last Lombardi.

[real bucs fan]

The key for a Bucs victory is getting after Stafford. He’s taken some good shots lately and if we can hobble him we can slow that O down. Offensively we need to run it down their throats and for Brady to do his best surgeon impression. Quick accurate strikes.

Where have you been? Not ill I hope?

No, been fine, thanks for asking though. Had a weird issue where I would get logged out of this site every time since the switch over, plus half my joy here was the draft forum and I’ve honestly kind of lost interest in the draft since we’ve become good lol

[King Bootz]

Where have you been? Not ill I hope?

No, been fine, thanks for asking though. Had a weird issue where I would get logged out of this site every time since the switch over, plus half my joy here was the draft forum and I’ve honestly kind of lost interest in the draft since we’ve become good lol

Well your interest should ramp up some. We'll be in the draft market for a RB or 2 I suspect.

[real bucs fan]

No, been fine, thanks for asking though. Had a weird issue where I would get logged out of this site every time since the switch over, plus half my joy here was the draft forum and I’ve honestly kind of lost interest in the draft since we’ve become good lol

Well your interest should ramp up some. We'll be in the draft market for a RB or 2 I suspect.

lol liking what I’m seeing from Vaughn I will say.

[mdb1958]

No, been fine, thanks for asking though. Had a weird issue where I would get logged out of this site every time since the switch over, plus half my joy here was the draft forum and I’ve honestly kind of lost interest in the draft since we’ve become good lol

Well your interest should ramp up some. We'll be in the draft market for a RB or 2 I suspect.

Tell me Bootz, which of our six assets go to 2 RB's.

[Nobody]

I detailed the Rams loss pretty extensively back then.

They didn’t chew us up due to lack of Pass Rush. They mostly took our Pass Rush out of the game (with a couple exceptions) and beat our blitz. Stafford was 3rd in the league in Time to Throw (TtT) and a ridiculous 125 Passer Rating and 9 First Downs on 3.6 Average Depth of Target throws ((with minuscule TtT).

We were killed by the Perimeter Screen game, Quick Hitches/Whips and Rubs, and missed tackles against their passing game. Our CBs were losing fast and decisively, we weren’t tackling, and Bowles was crushed by McVay (huge number of scheme-based losses). They took our pass rush out of the game and our blitz packages were taken advantage of.

Having our actual complement of DBs should help that but we have to read/react/tackle and scheme a hell of a lot better. Blitzing this team is a poison pill. We have to resist the urge to blitz. 2 Man with a mix of Off and Press to deal with their exchanges/rubs from Stack/Bunch and 2 Zone variations (which we play fairly well). Lots of light personnel, Big Dime with all 3 Safeties in, and activate Whitehead.

[King Bootz]

Well your interest should ramp up some. We'll be in the draft market for a RB or 2 I suspect.

Tell me Bootz, which of our six assets go to 2 RB's.

The 4th one and the one we get for Bowles

[Nobody]

I don't bet sports but I would think this would be a game to avoid.

Crushing the Rams to cover and playing the money line. Hoping I'm wrong, of course, but I'm not optimistic for this one. Couldn't believe they opened as an underdog at -3.

Hate to say it, but wise choice. Smart money either pounds the Rams this week or stays off of this game due to injury questions.

I’m really starting to think we just need to say eff it on offense. Play Stinnie at RT but constantly bracket him with either 2 TE or a TE and a Tackle Eligible so he is basically playing Guard and Quick/45 Setting in Pass Pro.

Screw being formation/personnel-dynamic. Play your most capable dudes, put them in their best position to succeed.

Run a ton of Power and Duo and play-action off of it with a fair chunk of Max Protect.

Patriot-ify the rest of the playoffs and just do weird stuff offensively (eg Tempo and run the ball over and over and over and over and sprinkle in play action).

[King Bootz]

According to Arians, the plan would've been to slide Cappa to RT and put Stinnie in his place at RG. I don't think Stinnie has experience playing tackle at all. Cappa does.

[Pirate Life]

Interesting data point.

[bucarican]

According to Arians, the plan would've been to slide Cappa to RT and put Stinnie in his place at RG. I don't think Stinnie has experience playing tackle at all. Cappa does.

I wonder if Robert Hainsey could play RT if really needed. It was his position at ND.

[Nobody]

To clarify what I’m talking about here, I’m effectively talking about “nobody playing RT” (eg Vertical Sets 1v1 against Edge Rushers).

When you’re Unbalanced to a side and giving TE help to that Tackle in Pass Pro, that OT is basically playing Guard; they’re Quick-Setting and maaaaybe 45 Setting.

That is how you prevent the exposure of a backup player who can’t consistently Vertical Set against NFL Edge Rushers.

I remember the Cappa experiment at RT in preseason back when. He can Quick and 45 Set very well now. No way he can pull off Vertical Set against NFL Edges (and this was when he was spending time on the footwork of the set). I’ve watched a little bit of Hainsey. I have no confidence in his ability to do so either (at least at this point in his career).

Without Wirfs, we’re going to need to protect whoever plays there via formation help + actual help + scheme and play calling help. If we run an overabundance of Unbalanced with the 2 TEs over there > run Duo and Power > play action a ton (including Max Protects) off of those looks? Might be our best chance to protect whatever “not Tackle” we play out there (including Wells who is also hobbled) while giving us a chance to possess the ball and score on short fields.

We basically need to pretend we’re the late 90s Steelers.

[IchabodCrane84]

Interesting data point.

Gronk corrected Jenna in his presser immediately after the game. It was actually 2.11 seconds.

[MJW]

Interesting data point.

Yeah, disguise some coverages. I'm sure Raheem will come up with some stuff Tom Brady hasn't seen before.

[Backside]

Really hoping Stafford throws us a touchdown.

[MJW]

To clarify what I’m talking about here, I’m effectively talking about “nobody playing RT” (eg Vertical Sets 1v1 against Edge Rushers).

When you’re Unbalanced to a side and giving TE help to that Tackle in Pass Pro, that OT is basically playing Guard; they’re Quick-Setting and maaaaybe 45 Setting.

That is how you prevent the exposure of a backup player who can’t consistently Vertical Set against NFL Edge Rushers.

I remember the Cappa experiment at RT in preseason back when. He can Quick and 45 Set very well now. No way he can pull off Vertical Set against NFL Edges (and this was when he was spending time on the footwork of the set). I’ve watched a little bit of Hainsey. I have no confidence in his ability to do so either (at least at this point in his career).

Without Wirfs, we’re going to need to protect whoever plays there via formation help + actual help + scheme and play calling help. If we run an overabundance of Unbalanced with the 2 TEs over there > run Duo and Power > play action a ton (including Max Protects) off of those looks? Might be our best chance to protect whatever “not Tackle” we play out there (including Wells who is also hobbled) while giving us a chance to possess the ball and score on short fields.

We basically need to pretend we’re the late 90s Steelers.

Seems like, if this is the case, we'll see some Darren Fells in that role. He's by far the best blocking TE on the roster, besides Gronk (who presumably we'd rather have running routes when applicable.)

[Patrick McIrish]

This is the matchup I was most worried about.

Sharp post.

We are 1-7 last 8 games against Rams, 0-2 with Brady in the house.

Ironically Crab Legs is the only one to beat them lately.

We are outclassed on both sides of the ball, more importantly on the sidelines.

I think we had a better chance against anyone else in the playoffs, including GB, the Rams however have our number.

Just hope we can keep it somewhat close this Sunday.

[Patrick McIrish]

The betting line keeps flip flopping around.

TB -3 one minute.
LA -3.5 the next.

I've been out of commish the last few weeks but where did you see this?

Are you saying the Rams were -3.5 point chalks at some point?

If so, where? I don't see where that line ever existed but could have missed it.....

Thanks.

PS - large bets are not behind moves that big in the NFL. That has to do with injuries if it actually existed.

[Defense5599]

This is the matchup I was most worried about.

Sharp post.

We are 1-7 last 8 games against Rams, 0-2 with Brady in the house.

Ironically Crab Legs is the only one to beat them lately.

We are outclassed on both sides of the ball, more importantly on the sidelines.

I think we had a better chance against anyone else in the playoffs, including GB, the Rams however have our number.

Just hope we can keep it somewhat close this Sunday.

If we keep it close, Brady will find a way to win it in the end. Stafford has never gone this deep in the playoffs.

[mdb1958]

I'm sure the Rams are drooling thinking about any weakness we put on the field. We better do the same and if Whitworth goes on that bad ankle we better throw the heat at him all game

[Grahamburn]

Stinnie at guard and Cappa out at RT makes sense.

Then try to keep it close enough to hand it off 30+ times. Even on 3rd and 3 or less. Exposing these guys to extended pass protection is a failing game plan.

I would expect the Rams to play us tight. Dare us to protect Brady long enough to throw it down the field.

[bucarican]

Lenny put out a message on twitter yesterday that goes like this "Appreciate all the birthday luv, man only if y’all knew the roads I had to take to get here, all the people I lost in my that can’t experience everything with me Thank Y’all and I WILL SEE YOU GUY SUNDAY." If he returns that would be big!

[Noles1724]

Lenny put out a message on twitter yesterday that goes like this "Appreciate all the birthday luv, man only if y’all knew the roads I had to take to get here, all the people I lost in my that can’t experience everything with me Thank Y’all and I WILL SEE YOU GUY SUNDAY." If he returns that would be big!

posted in other thread.. buddy played cards last night with him and he said that he'll be playing this weekend.

[King Bootz]

[Buc2]

Done simply to appease the Karen's out there.

[Sdbucs]

Most difficult game of the year.

We win this and it only gets easier

[King Bootz]

[King Bootz]

[Defense5599]

Didn't know Perriman and SMB were hurt. The injury list this year got big pretty quick and stayed that way the entire year. Week in/Week out, we've never had the same 11 guys there on offense or defense. And still managed a 13-4 record and #2 seed.

[King Bootz]

Didn't know Perriman and SMB were hurt. The injury list this year got big pretty quick and stayed that way the entire year. Week in/Week out, we've never had the same 11 guys there on offense or defense. And still managed a 13-4 record and #2 seed.

What do you mean you didn't know SMB was hurt? He didn't play Sunday because he was hurt.