WK9 discussion Bucs at Chiefs
WK9 discussion Bucs at Chiefs
If only Jarrett was in bounds..
Re: WK9 discussion Bucs at Chiefs
Another week, another favor. I'll be out of the country starting Friday through next Saturday. Won't be able to make the Monday night Game day thread (good looking out @Grahamburn for the Creamsicle edition) or next week's prediction thread (@Xandtar good looking out for this week). This is a community so anyone can feel free to step up.
Most hated man in America.
Re: WK9 discussion Bucs at Chiefs
Should Bates send us a teaching guide on how to punch out the ball on Carson Steel?
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Re: WK9 discussion Bucs at Chiefs
I'm fired up for this game. The Bucs are going to torment Mahomes just like in the SB victory.
Re: WK9 discussion Bucs at Chiefs
puff puff pass
Re: WK9 discussion Bucs at Chiefs
Cant say I’m confident but if we pull it off people will be singing a different tune and 5-4 will feel great
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- Central_Buc
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Re: WK9 discussion Bucs at Chiefs
This season has been so weird that I wouldn't be surprised if somehow we ended up winning and we're not gonna know how the hell it happened.
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Re: WK9 discussion Bucs at Chiefs
We have no chance.
Re: WK9 discussion Bucs at Chiefs
I predict Todd will add to his already poor win-loss record this season and continue to be a sub .500 coach.
Re: WK9 discussion Bucs at Chiefs
Totally winnable game.
Re: WK9 discussion Bucs at Chiefs
zero shot
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Re: WK9 discussion Bucs at Chiefs
-450 ez munny
Re: WK9 discussion Bucs at Chiefs
-450 is the opposite of easy. Not way that’s worth it. The +340 is way more enticing.
Unless you think the Chiefs are making a run at 17-0, this is a great spot for them to trip up.
Re: WK9 discussion Bucs at Chiefs
I expect the Bucs to lose by 17 or more.
Call me pessimistic.
Call me pessimistic.
- Babeinbucland
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Re: WK9 discussion Bucs at Chiefs
We could be a trap game for the chiefs. Right? Right???
I said what I said
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Re: WK9 discussion Bucs at Chiefs
I said what I said
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Re: WK9 discussion Bucs at Chiefs
Mahomes is 39-11 all time in the regular season at home. 20-5 all time in the regular season against the NFC. 11-2 all time against the NFC at home.
We can’t rush the passer and can’t cover the middle of the field. I think they have a player or two that can exploit those weaknesses?
Their defense has given up the 5th fewest points and 2nd fewest yards in the NFL this season.
We have no receivers.
We are going to get our doors blown off.
Re: WK9 discussion Bucs at Chiefs
You answered in the post right above this one
I do hate the fact that its MNF. I'd like our chances way more in the Sunday afternoon window. Primetime has been horrible for us.Grahamburn wrote: ↑Thu Oct 31, 2024 5:54 am
Mahomes is 39-11 all time in the regular season at home. 20-5 all time in the regular season against the NFC. 11-2 all time against the NFC at home.
We can’t rush the passer and can’t cover the middle of the field. I think they have a player or two that can exploit those weaknesses?
Their defense has given up the 5th fewest points and 2nd fewest yards in the NFL this season.
We have no receivers.
We are going to get our doors blown off.
Chiefs are obviously the better team, but better teams lose to worse ones all the time in the NFL.
Bowles is long overdue for a great gameplan that limits a great QB/offense. We've definitely seen him do it before. I think our run game could be awesome for holding onto leads if the game script ever goes in our favor.
I'm not saying it's a 50/50 shot, but it would be very far from the most surprising result of the NFL season imo.
Re: WK9 discussion Bucs at Chiefs
I second this notion. This has "over by halftime" vibes all over it.Grahamburn wrote: ↑Thu Oct 31, 2024 5:54 amMahomes is 39-11 all time in the regular season at home. 20-5 all time in the regular season against the NFC. 11-2 all time against the NFC at home.
We can’t rush the passer and can’t cover the middle of the field. I think they have a player or two that can exploit those weaknesses?
Their defense has given up the 5th fewest points and 2nd fewest yards in the NFL this season.
We have no receivers.
We are going to get our doors blown off.
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Re: WK9 discussion Bucs at Chiefs
I’d love to be wrong. I just don’t see it.
They’re watching us on tape licking their chops for a get right game.
They’re watching us on tape licking their chops for a get right game.
Re: WK9 discussion Bucs at Chiefs
They're 7‐0 and it's early November. This is the time of year the Chiefs start rounding into form. Mahomes is an incredible 17-3 in November and has only lost once at home in November.Grahamburn wrote: ↑Thu Oct 31, 2024 11:44 am I’d love to be wrong. I just don’t see it.
They’re watching us on tape licking their chops for a get right game.
Gonna take a miracle.
Most hated man in America.
Re: WK9 discussion Bucs at Chiefs
They are watching on tape thinking it is a great game to get their bench players some playing time.Grahamburn wrote: ↑Thu Oct 31, 2024 11:44 am I’d love to be wrong. I just don’t see it.
They’re watching us on tape licking their chops for a get right game.
Re: WK9 discussion Bucs at Chiefs
Yall betta check ya sheet
Last edited by Bootz on Thu Oct 31, 2024 4:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Most hated man in America.
Re: WK9 discussion Bucs at Chiefs
A tackle 25 yards downfield is the same at the LOS, eh Bowles?
Last edited by Snake on Thu Oct 31, 2024 3:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- Babeinbucland
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Re: WK9 discussion Bucs at Chiefs
Thinking about watching this game Monday night feels like something I don’t wanna do but feel like I have to
I really hate when we lose.
I really hate when we lose.
I said what I said
- Babeinbucland
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Re: WK9 discussion Bucs at Chiefs
I’m so pessimistic about this game, that losing by 17 points sounds optimistic
I said what I said
Re: WK9 discussion Bucs at Chiefs
Some quick notes:
Chiefs have been great vs. the run, obviously. Most of us can't figure out exactly how, since it's essentially the same exact group we had last season, and they weren't very good vs. the run in 2023.
Nick Bolton is the QB of the front-7, and our best run defender. Running up the middle with him out there is not going to work well. Misdirection might work to some degree. However, Bolton is not good in coverage, as he lacks both speed and lateral agility. Otton should be able to take advantage of him fairly consistently. As a unit, none of the KC LBs are particularly good in coverage, but Tranquill is probably our best at that position.
Justin Reid is the QB of the backfield. he's good vs. the run and any coverage where he can play running downhill, such as screens or stick routes, etc. Conversely, he's giving up a 116.2 passer Rating and a 85% completion rate when he has to try and cover downfield. Doesn't help that he's not very fast. Those numbers are pretty average over his career, btw. He's never been good in coverage when he has to chase.
Joshua Williams has been the CB2 opposite Trent McDuffie most of the time, though he might get replaced, as he's been giving up a 75% completion rate and nearly a 130 PR this season. Everyone behind him is about the same or worse so far.
If I were Coen, those are the three I would gameplan to attack the most. I would avoid throwing in McDuffie's direction and avoid running at Bolton.
The addition of DHop should mean KC struggles less vs. zone and open up more opportunities for Travis. And of course you can't play zone vs. Travis. So Bowles shouldn't be planning on playing much zone on Monday. DHop only saw three targets on Sunday, and based on how much Andy has been targeting Worthy, I'm not sure if DHop will see more than 4-5 targets Monday night.
The efficiency of the Chief's running game got a boost from the addition of Kareem Hunt over the last 4 games, but it has also seen that production steadily decline. Against the Raiders, Hunt only managed about 2.8yds/carry? They're overusing him. Don't really understand why. Best guess is that he's the best pass-pro RB we have.
It'll be interesting to see if Andy continues to throw 8+ targets at Worthy. Over the last two games Worthy has seen 16 targets, for 7 catches, 56 yds. Seems like a waste of some targets, but what do I know? None of the other Chefs' WRs are worth mentioning.
After that, Noah Gray has been the Chiefs' top target. I think he's decent; might be what TB hopes Otton could be soon.
In case no one's noticed, the Chiefs have flipped the script on their offense. They used to throw over 65% of the time, now they're running it about that much. Since we don't have a true alpha RB, it's pretty much 1990s football; 3 yds and a cloud of dust, 35+ times a game. TB will have to be able to stop the run. Have to put KC is passing situations on 3rd down and capitalize when they do by getting them off the field.
Last but certainly not least, Wayna Morris at LT has not been great. Not SKule bad, but not much better either. Taylor's been about his career average, but he's also had some pretty bad snaps. Bowles needs to find ways to attack both OTs, but Morris in particular. He's been so erratic that Pat has been bolting as soon as he feels the slightest pressure from the left side, throwing off his timing and eliminating the entire left side of the field at times. You can trace back many if not most of KC's 3-an-outs to Morris getting beat early and Pat bolting away from pressure early.
Goes without saying that Tb is going to have a huge hill to climb trying to beat KC. Bu not because KC is going to score a lot of points. They aren't built to do that anymore. I figure KC will score around 24-30 points assuming Bowles defense plays reasonably well. Trick is to take advantage of every KC mistake and just not make any mistakes on TB's side of the ball. That's how the Chiefs have been winning for the last two seasons. They take advantage of every mistake the opposition makes by scoring some kind of points, and they just don't make very many game-changing mistakes.
So White can't fumble the ball. McMillan/Shepard/Miller/Palmer have to catch balls that hit them in the hands. Baker can't throw multiple INTs. Just can't have turnovers and drops to have a legit chance. KC might be having trouble moving the ball 60+ yds to score a TD, but they're near the top of the league if you give them a short field.
Always had this marked down as a L for TB, but the lack of legit WRs and the poor play of the LT has made KC vulnerable to a point. They can't stage a big comeback in 2023; they just don't have the weapons for big plays. If TB can get a lead in the 2nd half, they have a chance to steal this one.
Chiefs have been great vs. the run, obviously. Most of us can't figure out exactly how, since it's essentially the same exact group we had last season, and they weren't very good vs. the run in 2023.
Nick Bolton is the QB of the front-7, and our best run defender. Running up the middle with him out there is not going to work well. Misdirection might work to some degree. However, Bolton is not good in coverage, as he lacks both speed and lateral agility. Otton should be able to take advantage of him fairly consistently. As a unit, none of the KC LBs are particularly good in coverage, but Tranquill is probably our best at that position.
Justin Reid is the QB of the backfield. he's good vs. the run and any coverage where he can play running downhill, such as screens or stick routes, etc. Conversely, he's giving up a 116.2 passer Rating and a 85% completion rate when he has to try and cover downfield. Doesn't help that he's not very fast. Those numbers are pretty average over his career, btw. He's never been good in coverage when he has to chase.
Joshua Williams has been the CB2 opposite Trent McDuffie most of the time, though he might get replaced, as he's been giving up a 75% completion rate and nearly a 130 PR this season. Everyone behind him is about the same or worse so far.
If I were Coen, those are the three I would gameplan to attack the most. I would avoid throwing in McDuffie's direction and avoid running at Bolton.
The addition of DHop should mean KC struggles less vs. zone and open up more opportunities for Travis. And of course you can't play zone vs. Travis. So Bowles shouldn't be planning on playing much zone on Monday. DHop only saw three targets on Sunday, and based on how much Andy has been targeting Worthy, I'm not sure if DHop will see more than 4-5 targets Monday night.
The efficiency of the Chief's running game got a boost from the addition of Kareem Hunt over the last 4 games, but it has also seen that production steadily decline. Against the Raiders, Hunt only managed about 2.8yds/carry? They're overusing him. Don't really understand why. Best guess is that he's the best pass-pro RB we have.
It'll be interesting to see if Andy continues to throw 8+ targets at Worthy. Over the last two games Worthy has seen 16 targets, for 7 catches, 56 yds. Seems like a waste of some targets, but what do I know? None of the other Chefs' WRs are worth mentioning.
After that, Noah Gray has been the Chiefs' top target. I think he's decent; might be what TB hopes Otton could be soon.
In case no one's noticed, the Chiefs have flipped the script on their offense. They used to throw over 65% of the time, now they're running it about that much. Since we don't have a true alpha RB, it's pretty much 1990s football; 3 yds and a cloud of dust, 35+ times a game. TB will have to be able to stop the run. Have to put KC is passing situations on 3rd down and capitalize when they do by getting them off the field.
Last but certainly not least, Wayna Morris at LT has not been great. Not SKule bad, but not much better either. Taylor's been about his career average, but he's also had some pretty bad snaps. Bowles needs to find ways to attack both OTs, but Morris in particular. He's been so erratic that Pat has been bolting as soon as he feels the slightest pressure from the left side, throwing off his timing and eliminating the entire left side of the field at times. You can trace back many if not most of KC's 3-an-outs to Morris getting beat early and Pat bolting away from pressure early.
Goes without saying that Tb is going to have a huge hill to climb trying to beat KC. Bu not because KC is going to score a lot of points. They aren't built to do that anymore. I figure KC will score around 24-30 points assuming Bowles defense plays reasonably well. Trick is to take advantage of every KC mistake and just not make any mistakes on TB's side of the ball. That's how the Chiefs have been winning for the last two seasons. They take advantage of every mistake the opposition makes by scoring some kind of points, and they just don't make very many game-changing mistakes.
So White can't fumble the ball. McMillan/Shepard/Miller/Palmer have to catch balls that hit them in the hands. Baker can't throw multiple INTs. Just can't have turnovers and drops to have a legit chance. KC might be having trouble moving the ball 60+ yds to score a TD, but they're near the top of the league if you give them a short field.
Always had this marked down as a L for TB, but the lack of legit WRs and the poor play of the LT has made KC vulnerable to a point. They can't stage a big comeback in 2023; they just don't have the weapons for big plays. If TB can get a lead in the 2nd half, they have a chance to steal this one.
Last edited by Sooner06 on Thu Oct 31, 2024 6:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Re: WK9 discussion Bucs at Chiefs
The things you pointed out that we can’t do are exactly the things we will do.
Don't tread on me
Re: WK9 discussion Bucs at Chiefs
Yeah, recent history seems to corroborate that. But White's fumble was due entirely to not holding that ball high an tight; that can be fixed. McMillan's drop issues are likely focus related. Watch the ball all the way into your hands, kid. Ditto Shepard. Baker needs to dial down the aggressiveness a tad. Not entirely, because without a big play or two I don't think Tb can beat KC. But he has to hedge those rolls of the dice more in his favor, imo. Those are all things that can be done on that side of the ball.
Bowles needs to be more aggressive and stop with the soft-ass coverages. Bring those exotic blitzes early and often. Play tight press man, make them earn their routes. Get jiggy with it. But if he calls the game the way he's been doing for the last three or four games, KC will just matriculate down the field and score on every drive. About half will be FGs, but they'll put points on the board. Just can't let KC score 6-7 times.
Re: WK9 discussion Bucs at Chiefs
One last point, though it seems pretty obvious: Mahomes has thrown 9 INTs, and while you can excuse maybe 4-5 of them, like that tipped pass last Sunday, at least that many have been of his own making. If he does throw an INT vs. TB, and it seems likely that he will throw at least one, it's absolutely imperative that the Bucs score points off of it.
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Re: WK9 discussion Bucs at Chiefs
Not only are the Bucs going to pull a big upset, but the Cowboys are also going to rope, corral and brand the Falcons!
- Central_Buc
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Re: WK9 discussion Bucs at Chiefs
That would be somethingGreatTimes wrote: ↑Fri Nov 01, 2024 5:35 pm Not only are the Bucs going to pull a big upset, but the Cowboys are also going to rope, corral and brand the Falcons!
- Babeinbucland
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Re: WK9 discussion Bucs at Chiefs
Oh God, PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE don’t make me root for the cowpaddiesGreatTimes wrote: ↑Fri Nov 01, 2024 5:35 pm Not only are the Bucs going to pull a big upset, but the Cowboys are also going to rope, corral and brand the Falcons!
I said what I said