Bucs vs Saints Discussion

[King Bootz]

[King Bootz]

[BJJ34]

Don’t we need to address locked-in Jameis in those statistics too?

[Dread]

Other than that one season opening game when Fitz started and we had DJax where be blew out the Saints in the dome when Mike had a huge day vs Lattimore I can't remember Evans getting the better of this match-up.

Lattimore is a fantastic CB when his head is in the game. He actually does better when he faces better WRs. It's like if doesn't respect the WR he's guarding he kinda mails it in effort wise.

When Lattimore plays with high energy he's a better player, whereas when Evans gets emotional he doesn't seem to play as well. Evans needs to bring the intensity but keep it all business on the field and not let Lattimore get him rattled.

[Dread]

In terms of Saints injuries the following guys didn't practice and I don't think any of them played Monday in Seattle other than LG Andrus Peat who was injured in that game and may be done for the season with a torn pec;

G Andrus Peat
RB Dwayne Washington
QB Taysom Hill
WR Deonte Harris
DE Payton Turner

Taysom Hill is still in the concussion protocol from that nasty hit he took in Washington a few weeks ago. Just like the Bucs did with Winfield I'd imagine the Saints wait til the late in the week (Friday) to have the independent neurologist examine him for clearance from the protocol.

They just traded for Mark Ingram also who should be able to pick the playbook very quickly considering he spent 8 season there as recently as 2018. So if Hill + Ingram are active Sunday it gives the Saints offense a more physical component in the run game and allows Kamara to get back into the role he's always excelled in rather than all the 1st down runs between the tackles he's getting exposed to.

Deonte Harris is nice weapon as a punt returner as well. We know all too well from the playoff game last season where he almost wrecked the game early on. He's a guy they try to get deep along with Kenny Stills on offense.

[King Bootz]

Other than that one season opening game when Fitz started and we had DJax where be blew out the Saints in the dome when Mike had a huge day vs Lattimore I can't remember Evans getting the better of this match-up.

Lattimore is a fantastic CB when his head is in the game. He actually does better when he faces better WRs. It's like if doesn't respect the WR he's guarding he kinda mails it in effort wise.

When Lattimore plays with high energy he's a better player, whereas when Evans gets emotional he doesn't seem to play as well. Evans needs to bring the intensity but keep it all business on the field and not let Lattimore get him rattled.

Brady last year went elsewhere for the most part. In the 2 competitive games, week 1 and the playoffs, Evans had 2 catches for 5 yards on 7 targets. Both catches were TDs.

This matchup has me worried. Brady did not play up to standard in any of the 3 matchups, even the playoff win. The Saints defense is designed to stop this offense. Without this task becomes even harder. Our defense will need to force Winston to make some mistakes. Hopefully he's eager to prove himself against us and goes full JaMiss.

[uscbucsfan]

Other than that one season opening game when Fitz started and we had DJax where be blew out the Saints in the dome when Mike had a huge day vs Lattimore I can't remember Evans getting the better of this match-up.

Lattimore is a fantastic CB when his head is in the game. He actually does better when he faces better WRs. It's like if doesn't respect the WR he's guarding he kinda mails it in effort wise.

When Lattimore plays with high energy he's a better player, whereas when Evans gets emotional he doesn't seem to play as well. Evans needs to bring the intensity but keep it all business on the field and not let Lattimore get him rattled.

Brady last year went elsewhere for the most part. In the 2 competitive games, week 1 and the playoffs, Evans had 2 catches for 5 yards on 7 targets. Both catches were TDs.

This matchup has me worried. Brady did not play up to standard in any of the 3 matchups, even the playoff win. The Saints defense is designed to stop this offense. Without this task becomes even harder. Our defense will need to force Winston to make some mistakes. Hopefully he's eager to prove himself against us and goes full JaMiss.

I thought I saw something that Evans was held to 0 catches while Lattimore was covering him last year, but maybe not.

I know with Lattimore and Ramsey, Evans is usually completely taken out of the game. The way he can be completely neutralized against big, trash talking DBs and his propensity to give up on routes are why other fan bases rarely put Evans in the top 5...or recently in the top 10 in the NFL.

[King Bootz]

Brady last year went elsewhere for the most part. In the 2 competitive games, week 1 and the playoffs, Evans had 2 catches for 5 yards on 7 targets. Both catches were TDs.

This matchup has me worried. Brady did not play up to standard in any of the 3 matchups, even the playoff win. The Saints defense is designed to stop this offense. Without this task becomes even harder. Our defense will need to force Winston to make some mistakes. Hopefully he's eager to prove himself against us and goes full JaMiss.

I thought I saw something that Evans was held to 0 catches while Lattimore was covering him last year, but maybe not.

I know with Lattimore and Ramsey, Evans is usually completely taken out of the game. The way he can be completely neutralized against big, trash talking DBs and his propensity to give up on routes are why other fan bases rarely put Evans in the top 5...or recently in the top 10 in the NFL.

There's some merit to that. It's one of the reasons I don't see a HOF talent. He doesn't do well against top corners that can cover him 1 on 1.

I don't remember last year specifically but I'll take your word and it's not a surprise. Lattimore is a great player.

[Dread]

Other than that one season opening game when Fitz started and we had DJax where be blew out the Saints in the dome when Mike had a huge day vs Lattimore I can't remember Evans getting the better of this match-up.

Lattimore is a fantastic CB when his head is in the game. He actually does better when he faces better WRs. It's like if doesn't respect the WR he's guarding he kinda mails it in effort wise.

When Lattimore plays with high energy he's a better player, whereas when Evans gets emotional he doesn't seem to play as well. Evans needs to bring the intensity but keep it all business on the field and not let Lattimore get him rattled.

Brady last year went elsewhere for the most part. In the 2 competitive games, week 1 and the playoffs, Evans had 2 catches for 5 yards on 7 targets. Both catches were TDs.

This matchup has me worried. Brady did not play up to standard in any of the 3 matchups, even the playoff win. The Saints defense is designed to stop this offense. Without this task becomes even harder. Our defense will need to force Winston to make some mistakes. Hopefully he's eager to prove himself against us and goes full JaMiss.

Yeah, I'm concerned with their defense also. Very talented in the back 7 and probably matches up better vs the Bucs weapons than any other defense in the league.

edit* - it should be noted that the Bucs offense, especially the passing game is MUCH better right now than at any time last season. Even with the "struggles" Brady has had in the past two games (where he's still completed 69% of his passes and 6/1 TD/INT ratio while averaging over 250yds)

But where the Saints defense has been historically better in this rivalry is their defensive front 4 has whipped our Oline. I feel really good that is NOT the case anymore. To quote Dave Chappelle (playing Rick James) 'The tables have turned Charlie Murphy'. The Saints front 4 isn't the force in the pass rush it has been. Cam Jordan is still a really good run defender, but isn't doing much as a pass rusher. The inside guys at DT are similar in that they are more stout vs the run than they are explosive in getting after the QB, and Marcus Davenport isn't the pro bowl caliber guy the Saints hoped when they traded up in the 1st to draft him. He's too upright and rigid. Another guy whose a better run stuffer than pass rusher.

So I think the Saints will struggle to pressure Brady vs our Oline. If so it means the Bucs will make plays in the passing game b/c despite the Saints talented secondary Brady will find the best match-up and open guy like he's done for 20yrs in this league when he's protected.

On offense; Protect Brady and don't turn it over.

On defense; contain Kamara (limit his explosive plays) and don't get beat deep.

We're a better roster, so all things being equal we should win.

[uscbucsfan]

Anyone else wish this was a 1pm game?

I know my kids will be nagging me to go trick-or-treating during the 4th Quarter.

[Jason Bourne]

Other than that one season opening game when Fitz started and we had DJax where be blew out the Saints in the dome when Mike had a huge day vs Lattimore I can't remember Evans getting the better of this match-up.

Lattimore is a fantastic CB when his head is in the game. He actually does better when he faces better WRs. It's like if doesn't respect the WR he's guarding he kinda mails it in effort wise.

When Lattimore plays with high energy he's a better player, whereas when Evans gets emotional he doesn't seem to play as well. Evans needs to bring the intensity but keep it all business on the field and not let Lattimore get him rattled.

Brady last year went elsewhere for the most part. In the 2 competitive games, week 1 and the playoffs, Evans had 2 catches for 5 yards on 7 targets. Both catches were TDs.

This matchup has me worried. Brady did not play up to standard in any of the 3 matchups, even the playoff win. The Saints defense is designed to stop this offense. Without this task becomes even harder. Our defense will need to force Winston to make some mistakes. Hopefully he's eager to prove himself against us and goes full JaMiss.

Meh our run game is Alot better and our defense has improved a lot since a few games ago.
I see us pounding the rock and keying in on stopping their run

[King Bootz]

Brady last year went elsewhere for the most part. In the 2 competitive games, week 1 and the playoffs, Evans had 2 catches for 5 yards on 7 targets. Both catches were TDs.

This matchup has me worried. Brady did not play up to standard in any of the 3 matchups, even the playoff win. The Saints defense is designed to stop this offense. Without this task becomes even harder. Our defense will need to force Winston to make some mistakes. Hopefully he's eager to prove himself against us and goes full JaMiss.

Meh our run game is Alot better and our defense has improved a lot since a few games ago.
I see us pounding the rock and keying in on stopping their run

I don't think we'll see much running from either team this game. The Saints are #2 against the run vs us being #1 and they actually allow fewer yards per carry than we do.

This game will be about the QBs. Which one can make the fewest mistakes? Brady vs Winston I take Brady all day to make fewer mistakes, but I'd be lying if the 6 turnovers he had in 3 games against the Saints last year weren't in the back of my mind.

[Dread]

Anyone else wish this was a 1pm game?

I know my kids will be nagging me to go trick-or-treating during the 4th Quarter.

Fuck yeah, or the SNF game at 8:20. I can already hear my wife complaining about it. .

We host for family and neighborhood friends for Halloween every year and since we have a 5yr old so Halloween is a pretty big deal right now.

We'll be set up in the driveway like always and this year I'll set up my blow-up projector and put the game on.

We usually only go with our daughter to a handful of houses anyways then come back home and host. We're blessed to have alot of family nearby who all want to take our daughter to houses also, so it works out.

[Dread]

Meh our run game is Alot better and our defense has improved a lot since a few games ago.
I see us pounding the rock and keying in on stopping their run

I don't think we'll see much running from either team this game. The Saints are #2 against the run vs us being #1 and they actually allow fewer yards per carry than we do.

This game will be about the QBs. Which one can make the fewest mistakes? Brady vs Winston I take Brady all day to make fewer mistakes, but I'd be lying if the 6 turnovers he had in 3 games against the Saints last year weren't in the back of my mind.

Meh, we're a much better offense than we were in those two games he threw all those picks. That was week 1 (2 INTs) and week 9 (3 INTs) IIRC. We didn't turn the ball over in the playoff game (which was the key to the game).

Not to be a homer, but the Bucs passing offense looks alot more efficient/cohesive than at any point last season, certainly better than those games in the regular season vs the Saints.

But they do have a good secondary. I just feel we're a much better passing offense than what we were in those regular season games vs them last season. Or even in the playoffs.

Not only are we a better offense, I'd argue the Saints defense isn't as good as that unit was last season b/c they aren't as good up front getting after the QB.

[King Bootz]

I don't think we'll see much running from either team this game. The Saints are #2 against the run vs us being #1 and they actually allow fewer yards per carry than we do.

This game will be about the QBs. Which one can make the fewest mistakes? Brady vs Winston I take Brady all day to make fewer mistakes, but I'd be lying if the 6 turnovers he had in 3 games against the Saints last year weren't in the back of my mind.

Meh, we're a much better offense than we were in those two games he threw all those picks. That was week 1 (2 INTs) and week 9 (3 INTs) IIRC. We didn't turn the ball over in the playoff game (which was the key to the game).

Not to be a homer, but the Bucs passing offense looks alot more efficient/cohesive than at any point last season, certainly better than those games in the regular season vs the Saints.

But they do have a good secondary. I just feel we're a much better passing offense than what we were in those regular season games vs them last season. Or even in the playoffs.

Not only are we a better offense, I'd argue the Saints defense isn't as good as that unit was last season b/c they aren't as good up front getting after the QB.

Our offense is better this year. No denying that. But no AB, iffy on Gronk. Those are big losses. Something to keep an eye on.

The numbers say the Saints D is actually better this year than last. You could argue "who have they played". That seems to be a very popular narrative this season. But overall their defense is playing great. I don't know where you're getting that they aren't good up front. Sacks/game is right around ours, a little over 2 per. 10th in applying pressure to the QB. They've allowed only 6 TD passes so far.

I still think we win but let's not pretend like there's nothing to worry about here.

[Dread]

Meh, we're a much better offense than we were in those two games he threw all those picks. That was week 1 (2 INTs) and week 9 (3 INTs) IIRC. We didn't turn the ball over in the playoff game (which was the key to the game).

Not to be a homer, but the Bucs passing offense looks alot more efficient/cohesive than at any point last season, certainly better than those games in the regular season vs the Saints.

But they do have a good secondary. I just feel we're a much better passing offense than what we were in those regular season games vs them last season. Or even in the playoffs.

Not only are we a better offense, I'd argue the Saints defense isn't as good as that unit was last season b/c they aren't as good up front getting after the QB.

Our offense is better this year. No denying that. But no AB, iffy on Gronk. Those are big losses. Something to keep an eye on.

The numbers say the Saints D is actually better this year than last. You could argue "who have they played". That seems to be a very popular narrative this season. But overall their defense is playing great. I don't know where you're getting that they aren't good up front. Sacks/game is right around ours, a little over 2 per. 10th in applying pressure to the QB. They've allowed only 6 TD passes so far.

I still think we win but let's not pretend like there's nothing to worry about here.

I've never said we have nothing to worry about, please don't strawman me here.

My view that their front 4 isn't as good rushing the QB is based on what I see. They got a big bump in the stats Monday going against Geno Smith and the feckless Seahawks Oline. Going into that game I think they had a total of 8 sacks in 5 games and none of the starting Dlinemen had more than 1. The team leader had 2 and he's a back-up who came over from KC.

To put it more simply last years Dline of Hendrickson-Rankins-Brown-Jordan with guys like Davenport and their current starting DTs coming in as depth were better at getting after the QB than this years line-up that is without Hendrickson and those 3 guys who were back-ups last season now starters.

[CannonFire]

Very lame news for AB. Was really hoping we'd have him there to stress their secondary.

Hopefully Gronk, LVD, and Dean at least make it to gameday. We need em.

Time to really find out what our 2020 5th round investment can return.

[King Bootz]

Our offense is better this year. No denying that. But no AB, iffy on Gronk. Those are big losses. Something to keep an eye on.

The numbers say the Saints D is actually better this year than last. You could argue "who have they played". That seems to be a very popular narrative this season. But overall their defense is playing great. I don't know where you're getting that they aren't good up front. Sacks/game is right around ours, a little over 2 per. 10th in applying pressure to the QB. They've allowed only 6 TD passes so far.

I still think we win but let's not pretend like there's nothing to worry about here.

I've never said we have nothing to worry about, please don't strawman me here.

My view that their front 4 isn't as good rushing the QB is based on what I see. They got a big bump in the stats Monday going against Geno Smith and the feckless Seahawks Oline. Going into that game I think they had a total of 8 sacks in 5 games and none of the starting Dlinemen had more than 1. The team leader had 2 and he's a back-up who came over from KC.

To put it more simply last years Dline of Hendrickson-Rankins-Brown-Jordan with guys like Davenport and their current starting DTs coming in as depth were better at getting after the QB than this years line-up that is without Hendrickson and those 3 guys who were back-ups last season now starters.

No strawmaning here.

We'll see. I hate the "well look who they played" argument people seem to be doing more and more these days. You can play that game all season long. Look at our defense before the Bears game against Fields who can't see the field.

Again the numbers, even before Monday, say this team is playing better defense than last year, personnel be damned.

[mdb1958]

One guy we need to exploit early is Gardner-Johnson.

[mdb1958]

I think we need a good game plan with Darden, Johnson, and Bernard in the mix. Not all underneath stuff for sure, make them bite and then hit the shot.

[Backside]

[mdb1958]

Will Ingram play?

[Jason Bourne]

Will Ingram play?

I would say yes

[King Bootz]

[mdb1958]

I will admit Twitter sure does make you guys look much more "with it".

Still a no for me.

[mdb1958]

Think our stadium will atleast make Winston go silent count? What maybe half the plays?

[King Bootz]

I will admit Twitter sure does make you guys look much more "with it".

Still a no for me.

Yea because why look up the information yourself when you can just ask others to do it for you, right?

[mdb1958]

I will admit Twitter sure does make you guys look much more "with it".

Still a no for me.

Yea because why look up the information yourself when you can just ask others to do it for you, right?

So asking is wrong, have you ever thought that just maybe I looked at things like somebody might know something because it's already in there head.

[Nobody]

DEFENSE

New Orleans is doing a lot of the same things on defense they typically do; 3 Zone-heavy (so they can get Jenkins in the box) + some 2 and MQs + 1 stray mix in 2 Man Under + 1 Man Free. They're considerably better in Man (way better), but they're predominate Zone like us. This is a theme for a fair amount of teams around the league including us. I'm really starting to wonder if this paradigm is borne out of "we can't play majority Man defense because its too costly for our back 7s' gas tank so we're only deploying it in key situations."

However, this year, they're bringing 2nd level defenders on the blitz at a much higher rate than I've seen them historically. Demario Davis is playing at an extremely high level and they're taking full advantage. They're also bringing their other LBers and Safety Jenkins. They're playing great on 1st down (which is the signature of great offenses and defenses anymore).

With Brown out, I expect a lot of 12 personnel (hopefully with Gronk back) and replacing 2nd level blitzers with inside receivers and attacking the sidelines with 2 and 3 Zone route combinations. They're a very good run defense and commit assets to it (especially Jenkins) so I'm hoping for a lot of play-action and attacking Jenkins off of it.

OFFENSE

They're going extremely Run + Screen heavy + scheming/trick shenanigans and trying to protect themselves from Jameis' worst tendencies. Despite that, he's still #11 QB in the NFL in Turnover Worthy Play %. Simultaneously (because they've defanged him), his Big Time Throw % has plummeted to # 27 in the NFL. HOWEVER...the few times per games he does throw its play-action + take a shot at a high %. His average depth of target is still near the tops of the league. What does this mean?

They're staying out of the intermediate throws that have historically given Jameis so much trouble (in terms of making coverage reads, understanding leverage, accuracy, ball placement). They're going Screen and over the top on play-action at a large clip.

Stop the Screen game, bottle up Kamara, don't let Jameis make a big play with his feet to pick up a 1st, don't overcommit Safeties to the run game (play 2 deep) so we stop the play-action over the top, White needs to play well against all the shenanigans they're running that try to get him out of position. Do that, and they won't be able to score against us.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Like always with Payton and great coaches, they're winning on Teams. Just don't lose the game here.

[Backside]

Yea because why look up the information yourself when you can just ask others to do it for you, right?

So asking is wrong, have you ever thought that just maybe I looked at things like somebody might know something because it's already in there head.

Where head?

[Dread]

I've never said we have nothing to worry about, please don't strawman me here.

My view that their front 4 isn't as good rushing the QB is based on what I see. They got a big bump in the stats Monday going against Geno Smith and the feckless Seahawks Oline. Going into that game I think they had a total of 8 sacks in 5 games and none of the starting Dlinemen had more than 1. The team leader had 2 and he's a back-up who came over from KC.

To put it more simply last years Dline of Hendrickson-Rankins-Brown-Jordan with guys like Davenport and their current starting DTs coming in as depth were better at getting after the QB than this years line-up that is without Hendrickson and those 3 guys who were back-ups last season now starters.

No strawmaning here.

We'll see. I hate the "well look who they played" argument people seem to be doing more and more these days. You can play that game all season long. Look at our defense before the Bears game against Fields who can't see the field.

Again the numbers, even before Monday, say this team is playing better defense than last year, personnel be damned.

I disagree the numbers indicate the Saints pass rush is better than last year, which was the point I was making. Certainly not before Monday vs Seattle. But even with that game I'd still disagree.

What I see is what I base opinions off of. Sure stats/numbers help validate certain things. But what I dislike is when people form opinions based on stats/box scores only.

I don't think there is much film evidence to back up the Saints front 4 is doing a good job rushing the QB. But if you'd like to point out the games where you feel differently I'll be glad to take a look.

[King Bootz]

No strawmaning here.

We'll see. I hate the "well look who they played" argument people seem to be doing more and more these days. You can play that game all season long. Look at our defense before the Bears game against Fields who can't see the field.

Again the numbers, even before Monday, say this team is playing better defense than last year, personnel be damned.

I disagree the numbers indicate the Saints pass rush is better than last year, which was the point I was making. Certainly not before Monday vs Seattle. But even with that game I'd still disagree.

What I see is what I base opinions off of. Sure stats/numbers help validate certain things. But what I dislike is when people form opinions based on stats/box scores only.

I don't think there is much film evidence to back up the Saints front 4 is doing a good job rushing the QB. But if you'd like to point out the games where you feel differently I'll be glad to take a look.

I said their defense overall is better this year and yes the numbers do back that up.

If you're talking specifically about their pass rush when they bring just 4, you be the judge of that. It seems they have adjusted and are blitzing more this year so you might have a point. But they are disruptive to the pocket this year.

[mdb1958]

So asking is wrong, have you ever thought that just maybe I looked at things like somebody might know something because it's already in there head.

Where head?

My apologies! The word should be spelled "their"

[Max]

The numbers say the Saints D is actually better this year than last. You could argue "who have they played". That seems to be a very popular narrative this season. But overall their defense is playing great.

Because it's true. Look at Washington, they played maybe 3 QBs that didn't stink all season and ranked #4 in scoring defense in 2020. How are they looking now? They played good offenses and are now the worst scoring defense in the league.



We played Prescott, Ryan and Stafford and ranked at the bottom in most categories. Then we played Jones, Brissett, Hurts and Fields and have been one of the best defenses since. 

Since week two, the Saints played:

Sam Darnold
Mac Jones
Daniel Jones
Taylor Heinicke 
Geno Smith 

Their defense hasn't been tested. That's going to change Sunday.

[King Bootz]

@Max

"Since week 2".......Gonna assume there's a reason you chose to eliminate 1 game of data. Who did they play week 1 and what was the result?

Don't try to create your own narrative.