Rapid Reactions: Bucs lose to the Saints 23-13

[Grahamburn]

The "problem" this game wasn't Baker. NO ONE was having a good game... Not Baker, Not LVD, Not AWJ. No running game. And I swear to god Voo-Doo was involved. Bad shit happened everytime we started going.

The lack of establishing the run beyond 1 yard and a cloud of dust really killed the passing game, as well. That and penalties... When it's perpetually 3rd and 14 every series, there ain't a lot of success with that.

There ought to be a time limit on throwing a flag. We got hosed, Detroit got hosed.

Baker was a big part of the problem in the Saints game. He was constantly confused by the Saints blitz and coverage packages. Baker didn't recognize pre-snap what the Saints defense was. Thus the first INT. The second INT was a badly underthrown ball. Most of Bakers stats were in the last 10 minutes of the game (garbage time) when the Saints quit blitzing and went into a prevent defense.

First INT had nothing to do with a blitz. It was a roll-out to his left and a deep throw against his momentum and body. He didn't throw it far enough. The second one the ball was deflected at the line.

Not saying he played well or anything, but I don't think the Saints blitzing is what effected him. They were playing almost exclusively man and we did nothing to combat it. No screens. No man beaters. We just kept running the ball for no gain and consistently were in 3rd and long instead of 3rd and short where we've been the best offense in the NFL. Then when we did have plays to make to get into the game we fumbled or turned the wrong way or whatever else.

[Jonny]

Baker was a big part of the problem in the Saints game. He was constantly confused by the Saints blitz and coverage packages. Baker didn't recognize pre-snap what the Saints defense was. Thus the first INT. The second INT was a badly underthrown ball. Most of Bakers stats were in the last 10 minutes of the game (garbage time) when the Saints quit blitzing and went into a prevent defense.

First INT had nothing to do with a blitz. It was a roll-out to his left and a deep throw against his momentum and body. He didn't throw it far enough. The second one the ball was deflected at the line.

Not saying he played well or anything, but I don't think the Saints blitzing is what effected him. They were playing almost exclusively man and we did nothing to combat it. No screens. No man beaters. We just kept running the ball for no gain and consistently were in 3rd and long instead of 3rd and short where we've been the best offense in the NFL. Then when we did have plays to make to get into the game we fumbled or turned the wrong way or whatever else.

Would love it if our resident experts (@Nobody , @Cheb ) took time to watch all-22 and comment on Bakers play. Our coaches are who they are. I'm holding out hope that Baker was put in a bad situation and was asked too much. It's funny, I have spent most of the season being a Baker critic and I feel like I am among the few besides you that appreciates his 4th qtr heroics.

[Bootz]

This was 1 of those games that kinda shows how Fandom works. The #1 reason we lost is because the Saints played extremely well but fans of this team will always look for someone to blame. Blame Dennis Allen. Derek Carr. Alvin Kamara.

It sucks to admit but the truth is they outplayed us. They did what they needed to do to win. Credit where it's due.

[Grahamburn]

First INT had nothing to do with a blitz. It was a roll-out to his left and a deep throw against his momentum and body. He didn't throw it far enough. The second one the ball was deflected at the line.

Not saying he played well or anything, but I don't think the Saints blitzing is what effected him. They were playing almost exclusively man and we did nothing to combat it. No screens. No man beaters. We just kept running the ball for no gain and consistently were in 3rd and long instead of 3rd and short where we've been the best offense in the NFL. Then when we did have plays to make to get into the game we fumbled or turned the wrong way or whatever else.

Would love it if our resident experts (@Nobody , @Cheb ) took time to watch all-22 and comment on Bakers play. Our coaches are who they are. I'm holding out hope that Baker was put in a bad situation and was asked too much. It's funny, I have spent most of the season being a Baker critic and I feel like I am among the few besides you that appreciates his 4th qtr heroics.

I guess I'm more of a bird in the hand kind of guy. He has shown a lot this year. Late game comebacks. Plenty of "got to have it" big time throws and runs late in games and on 3rd downs. By the numbers he's a top half of the league QB. I honestly don't think that's easy to come by nor do I think we should just take it for granted like it'll also be easy to just draft an "insert rookie QB" to replace him. Contract differences notwithstanding. But, a 3 year deal for Baker Mayfield isn't going to be some debilitating contract. On the contrary I think it opens up a lot of other possibilities for roster construction. Especially when you factor in Mike Evans probably leaves if there's a rookie QB here.

I didn't like what we did Sunday obviously, but overall feel like Canales has been pretty damn good. Bowles drives me nuts with some of his schemes. We didn't play well anywhere on Sunday though. We have a lot of needs. Pass rush. Coverage LB. RG. RB depth. CB. I don't think starting QB should be high on the list of needs when I make one.

[Moozician]

This was 1 of those games that kinda shows how Fandom works. The #1 reason we lost is because the Saints played extremely well but fans of this team will always look for someone to blame. Blame Dennis Allen. Derek Carr. Alvin Kamara.

It sucks to admit but the truth is they outplayed us. They did what they needed to do to win. Credit where it's due.

I loathe Derek "Baby, you can drive my" Carr... Alvin "Will you still love me" Kamara and Dennis "Fucking asshole" Allen.

[Buc2]

You are my age, it's an honor to teach you something.

What are you talking about? That was my reaction to the game that was played Sunday. You know...the OP topic? Something, something, Reactions?

[kaimaru]

The Bucs play well in the final 5 minutes. Why didn't they play like that in the 1st-3rd quarter? I believe it was shitty play calling

All 4 turnovers were on the Saints side of the field. It might not have felt like it, but we did have opportunities

[kaimaru]

The "problem" this game wasn't Baker. NO ONE was having a good game... Not Baker, Not LVD, Not AWJ. No running game. And I swear to god Voo-Doo was involved. Bad shit happened everytime we started going.

The lack of establishing the run beyond 1 yard and a cloud of dust really killed the passing game, as well. That and penalties... When it's perpetually 3rd and 14 every series, there ain't a lot of success with that.

There ought to be a time limit on throwing a flag. We got hosed, Detroit got hosed.

Baker was a big part of the problem in the Saints game. He was constantly confused by the Saints blitz and coverage packages. Baker didn't recognize pre-snap what the Saints defense was. Thus the first INT. The second INT was a badly underthrown ball. Most of Bakers stats were in the last 10 minutes of the game (garbage time) when the Saints quit blitzing and went into a prevent defense.

Per Bowles, they were making it look pre-snap that they were double covering Evans and Godwin every down then dropped. So pre-snap was not his problem and should have been told by the coaching staff which clearly failed to during the game. Not telling him to throw to them even if pre-snap they looked double covered is on the coaching

[Nobody]

First INT had nothing to do with a blitz. It was a roll-out to his left and a deep throw against his momentum and body. He didn't throw it far enough. The second one the ball was deflected at the line.

Not saying he played well or anything, but I don't think the Saints blitzing is what effected him. They were playing almost exclusively man and we did nothing to combat it. No screens. No man beaters. We just kept running the ball for no gain and consistently were in 3rd and long instead of 3rd and short where we've been the best offense in the NFL. Then when we did have plays to make to get into the game we fumbled or turned the wrong way or whatever else.

Would love it if our resident experts (@Nobody , @Cheb ) took time to watch all-22 and comment on Bakers play. Our coaches are who they are. I'm holding out hope that Baker was put in a bad situation and was asked too much. It's funny, I have spent most of the season being a Baker critic and I feel like I am among the few besides you that appreciates his 4th qtr heroics.

In this game in particular or on the year generally?

He was very much not-good through the first 3 quarters of the game (it was over in the 4th) but very little was going right around him. Our gameplanning, play-sequencing, situational play-calling was terrible. The weird thing is that (a) its been very good as of late and (b) this isn't a difficult team to scheme for...they (New Orleans) "do what they do" defensively and on Sunday "they did what they do." And our iOL play was brutal on top of that.

I don't understand why we get cute (on both sides of the ball) or literally gameplan/play-call right "into the teeth" of the other team's strengths or away from our own strengths or away from tried-and-true analytic trends (including ones that have been working for us recently). Its a total head-scratcher. Makes no sense.

Winfield is elite as a 2 Deep or Single High or Buzz/Seam/Hook Zone defender. Absolutely elite. He's dead average is a Man defender and he has better and worse attributes/matchups in Man. Like last week. Putting him on an island...against a Wide Stack...in a rub situation...against a player that out-athletes and out-sizes him in space? Complete mismatch of his ability-set. Made no sense whatsoever. Almost as much sense as having him cover Cooper effing Kupp 1v1, off-ball when Kupp has the entirety of the route tree...in the middle of the field...available to him.

These sorts of scheme aneurysms need to be curated out of the playbook entirely.

As far as Baker Mayfield is; the proverbial "he is what he is." There is nothing new under the sun with him. The cake is...baked <badoom tiss>. When things are going alright-to-well around him, he is in that upper-middle tier of 10th-13th best QB in the league (his ceiling) with a floor in mid-20s. He'll give you uneven play on-schedule and on-script and he is enormously streaky there. He'll give you a nice chunk of off-schedule, off-script playmaking both with his arm and his feet. He'll sometimes "get stuck" cognitively and either hold the ball when it should be out or he'll throw a stray ball into coverage (typically in the Hook/Seam, intermediate, area). Look at him like "a more stable Jameis Winston with authentic, legit leadership qualities" but he's nowhere close to elite (which is basically two full standard deviations from Mayfield's play) nor will he ever be.

He is a solid QB with both the "streaky gene" and the "clutch gene" and, unfortunately, the "WTF Turnover Worthy Play" gene. Historically, he's been pretty good at not generating "QB Own Pressure", but he's been oddly deviant here and there on that metric this year.

At this point, I would very much get used to the idea of him sticking around. My guess is he's going to be here next year. As will Coach Bowles. And I would imagine that next year looks a lot like this year.

[Jonny]

Would love it if our resident experts (@Nobody , @Cheb ) took time to watch all-22 and comment on Bakers play. Our coaches are who they are. I'm holding out hope that Baker was put in a bad situation and was asked too much. It's funny, I have spent most of the season being a Baker critic and I feel like I am among the few besides you that appreciates his 4th qtr heroics.

In this game in particular or on the year generally?

He was very much not-good through the first 3 quarters of the game (it was over in the 4th) but very little was going right around him. Our gameplanning, play-sequencing, situational play-calling was terrible. The weird thing is that (a) its been very good as of late and (b) this isn't a difficult team to scheme for...they (New Orleans) "do what they do" defensively and on Sunday "they did what they do." And our iOL play was brutal on top of that.

I don't understand why we get cute (on both sides of the ball) or literally gameplan/play-call right "into the teeth" of the other team's strengths or away from our own strengths or away from tried-and-true analytic trends (including ones that have been working for us recently). Its a total head-scratcher. Makes no sense.

Winfield is elite as a 2 Deep or Single High or Buzz/Seam/Hook Zone defender. Absolutely elite. He's dead average is a Man defender and he has better and worse attributes/matchups in Man. Like last week. Putting him on an island...against a Wide Stack...in a rub situation...against a player that out-athletes and out-sizes him in space? Complete mismatch of his ability-set. Made no sense whatsoever. Almost as much sense as having him cover Cooper effing Kupp 1v1, off-ball when Kupp has the entirety of the route tree...in the middle of the field...available to him.

These sorts of scheme aneurysms need to be curated out of the playbook entirely.

As far as Baker Mayfield is; the proverbial "he is what he is." There is nothing new under the sun with him. The cake is...baked <badoom tiss>. When things are going alright-to-well around him, he is in that upper-middle tier of 10th-13th best QB in the league (his ceiling) with a floor in mid-20s. He'll give you uneven play on-schedule and on-script and he is enormously streaky there. He'll give you a nice chunk of off-schedule, off-script playmaking both with his arm and his feet. He'll sometimes "get stuck" cognitively and either hold the ball when it should be out or he'll throw a stray ball into coverage (typically in the Hook/Seam, intermediate, area). Look at him like "a more stable Jameis Winston with authentic, legit leadership qualities" but he's nowhere close to elite (which is basically two full standard deviations from Mayfield's play) nor will he ever be.

He is a solid QB with both the "streaky gene" and the "clutch gene" and, unfortunately, the "WTF Turnover Worthy Play" gene. Historically, he's been pretty good at not generating "QB Own Pressure", but he's been oddly deviant here and there on that metric this year.

At this point, I would very much get used to the idea of him sticking around. My guess is he's going to be here next year. As will Coach Bowles. And I would imagine that next year looks a lot like this year.

Appreciate it as always. I have been too appreciative of clutch plays in 4th by Mayfield to remember how he may have contributed to our slump on his own in the first three quarters. Still, good to see that you were baffled by our scheming both on offense and defense.

As far as how you believe AWJr has been used, you have brought some bad memories back with the mention of how he was used as a CB in man coverage against a much bigger Cooper Kupp. And yet a week before playoffs start, that is exactly he was used again. It is such an unfortunate situation to be in as a fan. I want Bowles and Canales gone, but that means our team will have to lose cheaply against the Panthers.

[Doctor]

When did whe adopt the notion that a player should never be asked to do something that isn't easy for them? There's playing to your strengths, then there's asking we never play AWJ in man.

Sorry it doesn't work that way. There are 11 men on the field. Some plays put one player in a stressful spot in order to put another in an advantageous spot. The more we win that bet the better day we have, the more we lose it the worse. They all can't do purely their strengths every play and nothing else.

[Bootz]

People wanna make AWJ the highest paid safety in football. Bet your ass he's gonna play man.

[Snake]

Winfield grades

[Nobody]

No one adopted any notion of "never playing Winfield in Man." Anyone can feel free to look up my last post and show me where they see that. Of course, they won't be able to because its not there.

I'm not saying "don't play Winfield in Man ever." We put our Safeties in Man coverage responsibility a very small percentage of their coverage snaps; both the median and the average are right around 13ish % or maybe 5-6 snaps a game (and a heap of those are Match Quarters snaps). That is about right. We aren't the Cover 3 all day everyday LoB Seahawks and Winfield isn't Earl Thomas (the highest, or near it, paid Safety in the league for the second half of the last decade) where he virtually never played pure Man coverage as they played variations of 3 Zone and stray 1 Man where he played deep 1/3 Zone nearly exclusively (sometimes they would Cloud and he would move around a bit) and stray Match Quarters where he was bracketing a 1 or 2 vert and very occasionally matching (which would technically qualify as a "Man" snap).

What I'm saying is what I said. Principally, if a particular defense is designed to put Winfield in Man coverage in a virtually unwinnable situation for him...taking your best defender away from his strengths and putting him in a situation that is both his weakness and simultaneously nearly unwinnable (and often trivially identifiable, so the claim that "its doing work as a disguise is" DoA, such as defending a Wide Stack with no help over the top)...probably should consider binning that one. It doesn't happen very often...and we typically are able to easily identify it as a high(low)light when it does!

Just like teams who like to get cute on offense and slide TE1 (or hell, sometimes even TE2) under the formation to "block" (lol) an unaccounted for, free-running Watt (either of them...or pick your explosive Edge/DE and put them here)...probably should consider binning that shenanigan...at least for that week if you're desperate to cling to that likely loser of a play.

[Doctor]

So they already doesn't happen very often but we should still bin them when they do. So that the soon to be highest safety isn't ever put in a tough spot.

So do we bin these play immediately after their first failure? What if the play has 10 successful runs before? Is there some ratio or is it one and done sort of deal?

[kaimaru]

@Doctor bringing the juice today

[Jonny]

Real Bucs Talk's breakdown of this game brought my attention to how Trey Palmer can flat out fly. I was not sure how he can translate his 40yd dash numbers to game speed and at least in this game he looked like an amazing antidote to safeties focusing too much on Evans.

Also something Palmer has shown us from the first preseason game is his ability to high point the ball. His timing of the leap is almost always on point. Great find in the 6th.

[13F11B]

Real Bucs Talk's breakdown of this game brought my attention to how Trey Palmer can flat out fly. I was not sure how he can translate his 40yd dash numbers to game speed and at least in this game he looked like an amazing antidote to safeties focusing too much on Evans.

Also something Palmer has shown us from the first preseason game is his ability to high point the ball. His timing of the leap is almost always on point. Great find in the 6th.

Yeah, except that fumble.