The Vegas bookmakers - the closest thing we have to an all-seeing eye - has the Buccaneers' win total around 6, and has the Bucs +8000 to win the Super Bowl. Vegas only has Houston and Arizona below Tampa.
Logical people have been tempering expectations for a while now. Teams allocating 32% of their total salary cap towards dead money start their season firmly behind the 8-ball. 66% of the Buccaneers top 53 highest paid players are currently making $1.5m or less.
Additionally: teams lead by Baker Mayfield are 31-38 in his career, and 2-8 in the last 12 months. Todd Bowles has a career record of 34-50, including an 8-9 season with Tom Brady.
Optimists have assumed the position that "great defense, ball control via improved run game and schemed up easy throws" presents the Buccaneers' best chance at success in 2023-2024.
Last season, the top 5 teams in the NFL in rushing yards (and perhaps not coincidentally first downs) were Chicago (3-14), Baltimore (10-7), Atlanta (7-10), NYG (9-7), and Philly (14-3). Four of the five were also top 5 in yards per rushing attempt.
2 of those 5 teams have quarterbacks with elite running ability and production (Chicago, Baltimore), one is borderline elite (Philly), one is really good (NYG), and one wasn't too shabby (ATL- Mariota).
The point being, to be an elite rushing team these days, your QB needs to be a threat with the ball. Baker has never rushed for more than 165 yards in an NFL season. Kyle Trask rushed for 54 yards in 27 college starts (0.4 yards per carry).
I know what you're thinking, "SNAKE, we don't have to be elite at rushing the ball. We just need to be *good* at it."
Fair play. During Bowles' five full seasons as a head coach, his teams ranked the following in rushing attempts, rushing yards, yards per attempt.
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and in terms of Bowles's defenses as a head coach, he ranked the following in points allowed during his five seasons:
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The one season everything *clicked* for a Bowles team was 2015. The Jets went 10-6. Defense finished 9th in points allowed. 10th in rushing yards. Ryan Fitzpatrick had one of his random good seasons. The Jets strength of schedule was like 27th. The team was very good at forcing turnovers on defense, and average at preventing turnovers on offense. Also, very few penalties.
Bowles best season as a HC was 10-6. With strong ball control, low penalties, good defense, and only 5% dead salary cap. This was in an environment of weak strength of schedule.
How will Bowles fare with a third of his cap dead, both potential QBs with lower ceilings than Fitzpatrick, a new offensive scheme (new OC) and a harder strength of schedule?
Starting to seem like Vegas knows what they're talking about.
