Bucs at Bill Passing Game Film

[Nobody]

I'm going to lead with this. People have complained about how porous our Zone coverage has been over the last several years. Alright.

Meet 2nd year player, end of the 3rd (nearly 4th) round pick, MLB Terrel Bernard.

Pass Incomplete
(14:09) (Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass incomplete short middle to T.Palmer (T.Bernard). Pass tipped at TB 14.
3rd & 8 at TB 3

Its 3rd and 8. They're in typical Cover 2 Zone. We've got condensed doubles right, tight split. Look at the below play by 2nd year MLB who only had 111 snaps last year. This is any/all of (a) instincts and football IQ and film study (understanding the possible route combinations arrayed against him from this formation and given this down and distance), (b) technique in understanding what his drop landmark is and that he needs to maintain peripheral awareness of both receivers ESPECIALLY if he gets a Hitch/Crosser in front of him (because they're probably trying to throw the Dig behind him in that case) discipline, and (c) discipline to not bite on Otton's Hitch that is specifically designed to influence him to open the window to the Dig behind Bernard.

THIS_is how you play Hole in Zone. This is how you play it period but ESPECIALLY on 3rd and long.

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In 5 years, I've seen our present MLB execute like this (whether Hole or Seam/Hook defender) a hair north of a handful of times (the most notorious being the Brees pick in the 2020 playoffs). This is a huge part of why we have sucked on 3rd and long defense and given up so much in the passing game over the years. We don't have an eraser at MLB in Zone. We have a facilitator...someone who routinely bites on that Otton Hitch, is totally oblivious to the Dig behind him, vacates his coverage responsibility, and 3rd and 8 turns into 1st and 10 with a maddeningly easy pitch-and-catch that shouldn't have been.

[Pirate Life]

That kid had a stellar game. Watching the o-line on this play and Mauch had a great rep for a rookie guard. Still think he got hosed on the holding call that negated Mike's big gain. Never saw anything other than he pancaked his guy plain and simple.

[Selmon Rules]

That kid had a stellar game. Watching the o-line on this play and Mauch had a great rep for a rookie guard. Still think he got hosed on the holding call that negated Mike's big gain. Never saw anything other than he pancaked his guy plain and simple.

Couldn't see from the one replay we got to see but I thought he probably tripped over Goedekes legs as he went to his left. Mauch simply buried him as he was already going down

[Nobody]

That kid had a stellar game. Watching the o-line on this play and Mauch had a great rep for a rookie guard. Still think he got hosed on the holding call that negated Mike's big gain. Never saw anything other than he pancaked his guy plain and simple.

One of the dirtiest things in the NFL is that refs call Holding when they see a defender taken to the ground based on either (a) things they think they see but don't have enough information to confirm due to their orientation to the play (such as their perception of the OL turning the defender illegally) (b) or OL hand position at the tail-end of the takedown or in the immediate aftermath (typically hand position that looks like an underhook or is generally outside of the defender's frame).

So, they get these calls wrong far more often than they should and the OL who often get called are called either because they haven't developed the veteran savvy to ensure the perception of (b) doesn't happen (even if it did happen) by letting go of illegal or questionable (or even legit) hand position during the takedown or by obscuring it or because they don't have a name yet as an aggressive OL who legitimately takes defenders to the ground through legal position/hand-placement.

So you see legitimate plays whistled by rookie and young, unestablished players around the league.

[Nobody]

Here is an interesting play that gets into passing game design vs defensive tendencies. This is on our 3rd drive where we desperately need points because we've come away with nothing thus far. Its 2nd and 8.

Key things to note is that Buffalo's defense is pretty stock. They do what a lot of teams in the modern NFL are doing right now on the back end, but they do it very well:

* They play a lot of 2 deep.

* They play a lot of 2 Zone w/ Read principles on the single's side (so if you run a vert over there, the CB is matching and its basically going to be double covered unless another route challenges vertically on that side and then the Safety matches it).

* They'll mix in Tampa 2 with their Hole defender going vert and finding a Dig or Seem or some other Over route (like in this case a Drive > Sit route).

Pass Incomplete
(14:15) (Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass incomplete short middle to C.Edmonds (J.Phillips) [G.Rousseau].
2nd & 8 at TB 3

Buffalo does what I just wrote above exactly here. Now we're out of a condensed formation (as Canales is apt to do) and we're running a Mesh concept (layered Shallow Cross to spring one of them via either a pick in Man or via a boundary leverage defender getting sucked up and losing that leverage). Teams do run this concept out of condensed formations quite a bit.

Take a look at Godwin's Drive > Sit route. That is key here because this is 2 Read coverage on the single's side (so the CB is going vertical with the route). That overhang defender (I think its the NCB) sees Godwin's release inside of him. He has Flat/Curl responsibility (so he can't get out-leveraged to the sideline). When Godwin goes inside of him, he knows that either (a) Godwin is going to continue to the Hole defender's responsibility (which he does) or he's going to break it out to the Deep Out or the Corner where the Safety single's side will match. As a consequence, there is nothing there to suck up that NCB. He's not going to get out-leveraged to the sideline or give ground so Mike's Crossing route part of the Mesh isn't going to be sprung.

Now imagine if Godwin's release takes him outside the Flat/Curl defender. Now the Flat/Curl defender is in a catch-22 of having to honor a Godwin Curl behind him while simultaneously not getting outflanked to the sideline for Mike's Crossing route. That minor change to these route combinations would feature the NCB being the read and the Curl/Cross being the throw with one of them 100 % being open. If the NCB gets more depth to the Curl, throw to Mike on the Cross. If he gets wider to Mike, the lane to the Curl over top is open.

Its this kind of small stuff that means the difference between games a lot. When we talk about "a game of inches" in football, its often subtleties like this.

Sean Payton and Drew Brees made their NOS careers off of exactly this kind of concept (knowing defensive tendencies and attacking the leverage of a single defender who they've put in a 2v1 situation).

[Nobody]

1st and 18 (3 yard penalty on Palmer for his Holding call on White's big run and then a Goedeke False Start) play before this featured us running a timely Deep Out right at 11ish yards vs Match Quarters against a bail technique CB so the route was perfect to win. It won, the ball was on time and good ball placement low and away, Jarrett dropped it.

Good play call, good QBing, bad WRing.

2nd and 18 had us running a Seam, Hitch, Arrow vs them rolling into an inverted Cover 3 Cloud concept (CB bailing to deep 1/3 at the snap and S replacing him in Flat). The route combo sprung Godwin's Hitch. This time, good play call, good QBing, good WRing. 3rd and 9 (below):

Pass Incomplete
(7:50) (Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass incomplete short left to M.Evans [J.Phillips].
3rd & 9 at BUF 39

Given Buffalo's tendencies vs singles, given the press on Mike (tight split single on the left), and given the Safeties roll to 2 deep, Baker has to know that Mike is basically double covered there. The ball can't go there. He has to come off of that instantly if not presnap. They end up playing 2 Man Under, but, for all intents and purposes, it may as well be 2 Read in this situation (because Mike is doubled in both coverages).

The problem is two-fold; he stays on that progression and Mauch gets murdered. Control what you can control. He has to come off of Mike there.

So whether its 2 Zone or 2 Man Under on the (what amounts to) Trips side, he basically should be reading it out the same. It should be Godwin's Dig or White's Arrow > Out vs either the 2 x Man defenders (if its 2 Man Under) or the Seam/Curl defender + the Flat defender (if its 2 Zone). But Baker never gets off of Mike (who was DoA presnap whether its 2 Read or 2 Man Under).

Look at how badly White smokes his defender. If that ball is on time at the top of the route its a catch and run for the 1st down.

[Nobody]

This is our 2nd half opening drive. Buffalo has just gone down the field for 7 in their opening drive of the 2nd half and we're now 2 scores down. The game is spiraling. We have to have a clutch, courageous answer here.

This drive ended in 4 plays on the below play:

2 Yard Run
(8:30) (Shotgun) B.Mayfield scrambles left tackle to TB 43 for 2 yards (T.Bernard).
3rd & 5 at TB 41

We come out in Empty and then run Godwin on sprint, swing motion to the right side of the formation giving us a quad look over there with Mike as the single's side player with a tight split.

They show single high safety, press on the boundaries, off elsewhere.

Given the down and distance and what Buffalo likes to run, its almost surely not Cover 3. So its likely either 1 Man Free w/ a Hole player under the FS or a blitz or some kind of coverage roll post-snap. It turns out to be 1 Man Free. The Free Man is doubling Mike and that is the only direction that the double could be coming from because Mike is on a Slant. Baker, for some reason, prioritizes Mike here and then he doesn't come off of him. The pass protection is actually solid here; Tackles hold up vs their C arc rushes and the iOL doesn't collapse. Its a good pocket.

Look on the quads side. You've got off coverage vs Palmer and Otton and you've got a Dig (Palmer) under a Corner (Otton) with the downfield mesh point creating a natural rub against off coverage defenders. The ball has to go here. Even if Baker is going to prioritize Mike because of his presnap read, he has to come off of him immediately with the Free defender's double. The natural window of progression is Palmer. The ball has to go there (and imo, the presnap markers put that combination as the priority read anyway). If Mike's split was wide, maybe its a different deal. But that tight split brings the Free defender into the window immediately. There just aren't a lot of coverages you're going to see on 3rd and 5 (particularly given Buffalo's tendencies) that are going to handle that Otton/Palmer route combo/nautral rub vs single high, off coverage.

Everything went right for Baker (OL pass pro and route combination win vs coverage played) here and the QBing didn't produce in a key situation.

[GreatTimes]

Baker has tunnel vision and takes a long time to find a secondary receiver. Baker also had a solid pocket, but chode to scramble to his left which allowed the RDE to put pressure on Baker. Baker should have stayed in the pocket and found a secondary receiver like Palmer. This is what the Bakers former teams saw in Baker among other faults.

[Jonny]

Thank you @Nobody for your charitable contribution of film breakdown week in and week out.

Obviously there are a lot of things that seem to go wrong for our offense, all at once or one at a time on crucial downs. Baker's play simply feeds into the chaos, not lift our offense out of it. There is not as huge an advantage we're seeing from him being a veteran.

[Nobody]

Thank you @Nobody for your charitable contribution of film breakdown week in and week out.

Obviously there are a lot of things that seem to go wrong for our offense, all at once or one at a time on crucial downs. Baker's play simply feeds into the chaos, not lift our offense out of it. There is not as huge an advantage we're seeing from him being a veteran.

His play is no big surprise. In Cleveland he had one of the best OLs in the league and the best running back in the league to backstop his play. And during that period, his play was volatile in the exact same ways we've seen through 7 weeks this year. The only thing that is different is he has historically turned Pressure into Sacks. This year, he has actually been ahistorically good there. Its a marker of good QB play, but only one of multiple.

If you're playing with roughly the 18thish best QB play in the league and that QB play is volatile? That is not a recipe for competing for a Super Bowl championship. Over the last 15 years (when the NFL ruleset really started its trend toward amplifying QB play), the number of times that "QB ingredient" has worked for legitimate Super Bowl contending teams is absolutely remote.

[Deja Entendu]

I haven’t had a chance to watch all of this yet, but curious how it aligns with your analysis

[Nobody]

I haven’t had a chance to watch all of this yet, but curious how it aligns with your analysis

Won't have time to watch all of it, but I've looked at the first 3 plays. The first play I covered above was the third play on this video. I was going to cover the 2nd play (the one-step slant right into the teeth of the safety roll and Baker's weird drop) say the exact same things. Same goes for the first play.

I don't know about his commentary for the rest of it, but we're 100 % on the same page on the first 3 plays he covers.

[Deja Entendu]

I haven’t had a chance to watch all of this yet, but curious how it aligns with your analysis

Won't have time to watch all of it, but I've looked at the first 3 plays. The first play I covered above was the third play on this video. I was going to cover the 2nd play (the one-step slant right into the teeth of the safety roll and Baker's weird drop) say the exact same things. Same goes for the first play.

I don't know about his commentary for the rest of it, but we're 100 % on the same page on the first 3 plays he covers.

His overall takeaway is the last 2 or so mins starting 28:47 in, and is basically summed up as: the team and scheme didn’t do Baker any favors, and he had some tough sledding. Tons of competitiveness and athleticism, but chaotic/erratic/risky play needs to be reigned in. Overall, he thought he played pretty well all things considered.

That’s been basically my general assessment just watching in real time, as well. I wouldn’t say he played “pretty well” though. I think he’s really struggled the last couple of weeks, but has done enough to get us back in it. He’s been problematic at times, but he certainly isn’t THE problem.

The lack of run game is killing this whole team.

[Nobody]

Won't have time to watch all of it, but I've looked at the first 3 plays. The first play I covered above was the third play on this video. I was going to cover the 2nd play (the one-step slant right into the teeth of the safety roll and Baker's weird drop) say the exact same things. Same goes for the first play.

I don't know about his commentary for the rest of it, but we're 100 % on the same page on the first 3 plays he covers.

His overall takeaway is the last 2 or so mins starting 28:47 in, and is basically summed up as: the team and scheme didn’t do Baker any favors, and he had some tough sledding. Tons of competitiveness and athleticism, but chaotic/erratic/risky play needs to be reigned in. Overall, he thought he played pretty well all things considered.

That’s been basically my general assessment just watching in real time, as well. I wouldn’t say he played “pretty well” though. I think he’s really struggled the last couple of weeks, but has done enough to get us back in it. He’s been problematic at times, but he certainly isn’t THE problem.

The lack of run game is killing this whole team.

Ok, I watched the rest of it and I watched those last two minutes you're referring to. What you've got above isn't my takeaway of the overall breakdown nor the last two minutes. In the last two minutes he pointed at (a) Baker's tendency to be volatile and erratic, (b) his ability to win games despite it because of that volatility sometimes straightening out + off-schedule play-making + his ability to generate offense with his feet, (c) things need to be going right around him though because he isn't going to carry a team, (d) there were some things going against him (field position, a rounded route here, an oddity with a concept there, a dropped ball on a big play).

On the whole though, the analysis of that tape is pretty well in-line with my own and my general take on Mayfield historic and this year. I pointed above about the route combination with Godwin that I felt was odd generally but specifically for the coverage they were apt to see given the down and distance. If his route is an outside release (of the NCB) Dig or Hitch, it creates a natural read of the NCB's leverage vs Mike's Crossing route (on the Mesh concept) underneath it. But the inside release shuts down that pressure on the NCB to get depth so he can just get width to Mike's Crossing route.

There are cases of that in the tape where I'm looking at the stray route concept and wondering why its this way vs that (depth of route, release, type of route, etc). He pointed to a few of those instances in this game.

But on the whole, Baker had solid (not fantastic, but good enough for NFL QBing) protection throughout the game and he was not good for 3.5 quarters and a lot of that was things he can control and his own process. That 7:21 drive for 6 was pretty farcical imo. 2 x 4th down conversions by defensive penalty after they whipped us? Baker didn't have us in position to win that game. We were two scores down and the ball should have been punted and it would have either ended that way or the Bills would have snapped off another score to make it cosmetically much worse.

As far as the offense as a whole:

* Our LG and C positions are struggling badly but especially in the running game. Our RG position is absolutely brutal in the running game.

* Our TE position group is a mess and our WR depth is actively hurting us with execution (dropped balls, holding calls, missed blocks in the screen and running game).

* We are running too much from condensed formations with very scant motion to generate run fit issues or to belabor processing or to remove overhang defenders from the box.

* I don't know what the numbers are right now, but as of last week, we were bottom quartile in the league in terms of running on 1st down in gamestate-neutral situations. Way too much and we're doing it from 12 personnel with tight splits against loaded boxes and with a front 5 that just don't block it up well.

* Yes, there are stray oddities in the passing game like he mentioned in his breakdown and that I was pointing at above regarding Godwin's release/route, but, on the whole, this passing game is generating a lot of separation and a lot of wins. WAY more than last year. And plenty for QB production and offensive production that is well above what we're getting. That falls on the QB.

* Baker is playing exactly as he has historically except he isn't generating "QB-owned Sacks/Pressure" like he has historically. He's been really good at that this year.

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Net:

Baker is exactly what he's always been. A volatile player who can win when things are very right around him (such as a top 5 OL, top 1 running game, good defense in Cleveland), but when the team starts to stack its own volatility with his? Its going to be ugly, ultimately losing, football.