All 22 vs Lions

[Nobody]

All 22 isn't out yet, but I re-watched the condensed version to evaluate a few things. Once the All 22 comes out, I'll confirm QB play and back 7 play on defense and what exactly we did on those 3rd and longs on defense (I already have a good suspicion on each, but I'll wait to confirm).

Thoughts on re-watching condensed version:

OFFENSIVE LINE: Utterly brutal in the running game. Folks calling for new running backs and trades for people...that is never the answer in these cases. I mean, I loved Javonte Williams and I wouldn't mind trading a day 3 pick for him as Denver is bailing on the roster. But, despite how capable he is as a runner, he isn't changing the dynamic here. We are neck-and-neck with Houston for the worst Yards Before Contact in the NFL. Collectively, we're around .8 yards. Read that again. Zero Point Eight. You know what league median is? Its around 1.45. That is a terrible disparity. And there is absolutely a correlation between Yards Before Contact and Yards After Contact at the tails of the distribution. If your OL is blowing assignments or they're losing or their angles are bad so iDL are gap-shooting or DBs are activated? That is going to force the ball to declare early and in ways that are devastating to any designed running play. It doesn't matter who is in the backfield. Miles Sanders and Josh Jacobs have both been Yards Per Carry and Yards After Contact behemoths in the past? This year? Their both bottom of the league in both of these stats. Why? Because Carolina and the Raiders are terrible up front and DBs are getting activated in the running game against them (which is a product of play-calling tendencies, sequencing, and formation vs front).

This was again the case yesterday as a defensive front utterly dominated our front. We can pass protect well enough. We're actually a pretty solid pass protecting unit (including the RB component). But the run game? Yesterday was a cluster. Feiler was the only player that showed up (and he wasn't exactly good). We were predominant Zone yesterday, and we were losing left and right. Outside of Feiler, everyone was losing their assignments in one way or another (Wirfs included). When we went Gap it was no better. WRs weren't good. TEs weren't good. DBs were getting activated in the running game when we reduced the formation.

We're losing in every way in the running game. Go look at Miami. This is not some stellar run blocking team. Look at the space that McDaniel's play design, pre & post snap motion, his sequencing, his personnel (both how much speed is there and his decisions in his grouping, his counters creates. Its staggering how much space (before and after contact) those RBs have. Are those RBs somehow otherworldly? No, they aren't. Is that OL dominating? No, they're certainly not (they're just alright up front). Its all about the auxiliary things mentioned above. No go look at Philly. Just utterly dominant up front along with some auxiliary components (basically the inverse of Miami).

We have neither of those things going for us. Neither the base substrate of assignment-sound, dominant OL/TE (individually and collectively) nor do we have all of the auxiliary components mentioned above that generate space, angles, processing load for front 7 players, and that minimize DBs from being activated in the running game.

Yesterday was no different. We got utterly destroyed in the running game both Zone and Duo/Gap in all the ways you can lose. Adding any RB will do approximately zero to change any of that.

CALIJAH KANCEY: Wow. What a game. This is one of the best OLs in the league we were going with and he absolutely showed up. The concern for his arm length did not show up. He had a rep against Penei Sowell that was all about winning first contact (which is the typically feared problem with short armed iDL/Edge players) and winning with hands. Absolutely handled Sowell with get-off, reducing his pad space via his lateral quickness, winning first contact with his hands, getting extension, and swiping Sowell's attempt to reset his own hands. Killed the play because of it. There was a lot of that on tape for him yesterday; killing plays. He played a lot of different techniques. He won 1v1s. He won on Twists/Loops and/or set people up. He won with quickness/get-off/CoD. He won with hands. Super impressive game against a very legit offensive line and against an offensive scheme and player-caller that puts a lot on the table for 3T and 5T to process.

LOGAN HALL: Basically invert the Kancey praise. Logan Hall is getting nothing done in pass rush whether its 1v1s in & long situations or neutral. He's Just A Guy against the run. The inversion of those two young players (with Hall having a ton of snaps on Kancey) is striking on tape. Things are not looking good for Hall. If he's going to be somebody, he should be a lot more at this point.

RUN DEFENSE: Fantastic in fits, in physicality, and in DB activation. We were so sound and so good yesterday. Pretty well across the board with LVD and Vea being absolute stalwarts. If you just go by our Run D vs their running game (where they are fantastic personnel-wise and playcalling-wise), you would come away with "yeah, we won that game." As an isolated piece of the game, that was a huge win for us. We dominated assignment-wise, we dominated physically, our early down play-calling was fantastic, and our activated DBs produced.

PASS RUSH: Not good and that goes especially so for blitzes. Kancey was fantastic and LVD had a great single effort on a blitz (perfectly timed, made himself small against the Guard/Center, and won big against the RB and then finished), but outside of that it was just rough. Shaq, Diaby, Vita did not win their match-ups (neither against sure passing sets nor against neutrals) and White (11), Izien (4), and Winfield (2) didn't come close to getting home on blitzes. They were clearly mixing up the cadences and protections because were perpetually removing guys from coverage on the back-end way late and replacing them with absolute air. Just mis-timed, losing blitzes that got nothing done and way too many non-wins in True Pass Set situations.

++++++++++++++++

Anyway, those are thoughts about front 7 play from yesterday. Once I can firm up my opinions on the back end via All22, I'll throw out some further thoughts.

Net is that both running games were absolutely dominated via front 7 and activated DBs. Both teams protected reasonably well with Detroit being better than us. Outside of a few snaps, our blitz was totally handled and hurt us yesterday. But, truth be told, we actually handled the blitz reasonably well also. We did have some assignment issues on the blitz where we freed iDL completely both in pass pro and in the run game (generating drive-killing plays).

My guess is, its gonna come down to (a) Goff outplayed Baker by a million-fold, (b) the fluky deflection early which should have been a TD to Mike, (c) Mike having some key drops, (d) individual efforts and wins (Detroit WRs specifically), (e) and a ton of 7 in coverage Zone/Match Quarters on 3rd and long losing both because of lack of pass rush and key interior defenders being out of position on Digs because of undisciplined biting on manipulating window-dressing in front of them (I saw that live at least twice).

[Pirate Life]

Our TEs are a huge, huge liability in the run game. Someone might want to check if they have shadows, cause I don't think they can block sunlight either.

I've only seen what was on RedZone, but Kancey definitely flashed. Goedeke looked to hold his own in pass pro on the offensive side of things (we looked to have done very well with pass protection, not sure why so many plays Baker looked like he was rushing the throw).

We're just snakebit with the run game, the few times the blocks opened holes the RBs went the other way.

For Detroit, Anzalone looks like he played out of his mind (kudos to him after what he went through with his family in Israel last week). And our o-line did a great job with Hutchinson, both Goedeke and Wirfs handled him in pass pro. Think he was only credited with one pressure (he'd had at least 6 in every other game this year).

Was reading one commentator who said that the Lions stole from McVay's schemes against Bowles' blitzes and that every single one of them worked.

[Obsolete]

It really is annoying watching the bucs oline get manhandled everytime we attempt to run the ball. We get seemingly no push whatsoever and its even worse when its an obvious run situation.

Is this something thats fixable mid-season or are we stuck with this mess until the off-season?

[GreatTimes]

It really is annoying watching the bucs oline get manhandled everytime we attempt to run the ball. We get seemingly no push whatsoever and its even worse when its an obvious run situation.

Is this something thats fixable mid-season or are we stuck with this mess until the off-season?

The Bucs are stuck with the mess until they procure some offensive linemen who can run block. The Bucs Offensive Line is good in pass blocking, but inept at run blocking.

[Bootz]

Just a reminder that somehow Harold Goodwin & Joe Gilbert kept their jobs while 9 other coaches were given pink slips.

[13F11B]

It really is annoying watching the bucs oline get manhandled everytime we attempt to run the ball. We get seemingly no push whatsoever and its even worse when its an obvious run situation.

Is this something thats fixable mid-season or are we stuck with this mess until the off-season?

The Bucs are stuck with the mess until they procure some offensive linemen who can run block. The Bucs Offensive Line is good in pass blocking, but inept at run blocking.

Who is the OLINE coach?

[Cheb]

Just a reminder that somehow Harold Goodwin & Joe Gilbert kept their jobs while 9 other coaches were given pink slips.

It is/was a curious decision.

I think it comes down to Canales not being near as comfortable in the run game as he has been in the passing game as a coach. He spent his career as a receiver and QB coach as well as passing game coordinator, with very little involvement in the run game until he was responsible for putting one together this year.

Were I Bowles, I would heavily consider hiring an outside a run game coordinator, maybe not for this season but certainly in future. Our spirit is willing from a play calling perspective but our execution is shit.

[Jonny]

Just a reminder that somehow Harold Goodwin & Joe Gilbert kept their jobs while 9 other coaches were given pink slips.

Same goes for Keith Armstrong who's helped us field some of the worst coverage units.

[Miller4Prez64]

I think people would be surprised what a back with some vision could do here. Not saying our OL isn’t struggling mightily blocking for the run, but I watched Rachaad run right into the back of an offensive lineman yesterday when he had a massive lane to the right. There’s more problems than just the line, when the run game is THIS bad it’s rotten all around and I’m tired of the RBs always getting a pass.

I don’t think it’s worth trading for any RBs midseason, but I would like the FO to actually attempt and upgrade it in some form this offseason. I always thought it was ridiculous that Rachaad White was handed the RB1 job with zero competition despite a below average rookie season at best. I get the cap is tight and RB isn’t a “valuable” position anymore, but c’mon how do you punt on upgrading your backfield after an historically bad season running the ball?

[Nobody]

This is the first running play of the game and its emblematic of our running game issues. This is not a running back problem. This is an assignment and concept problem.

2 Yard Run
NOW PLAYING
(15:00) (Shotgun) R.White left tackle to TB 27 for 2 yards (J.Jacobs, J.Campbell).

We're in 12 personnel and its balanced (TEs on both sides of the formation). Lets start with that.

In the NFL, you're only going to see base defense in very niche situations. It is now a Nickel league. If you've (a) got base defense on the field on 1st down (which is the most productive passing down in the NFL) (b) while the offense has (effectively base) 12 personnel on the field and (c) the TEs aren't receiving threats? Conceptually, you've probably won the chessmatch up to this part of the play (lets call it "the setup") if you're the defense. The offense is either (i) running the ball (which, on 1st down, is a win for the defense, especially if they're running against your base defense) or (ii) putting out a personnel package that features minimal total threats in terms of eligible receivers. Base defense is vulnerable why? Because the offense can put out 4, perhaps even 5, legitimate receiving threats that base defense isn't equipped to handle. Well, Otton and Kieft are not threats, so this is a net win for the Lions in two ways before the play even starts; the white flag of surrender of a run on 1st down (particularly against base defense) and personnel-wise being a good match aganst ours in the case that we do throw the ball on 1st down.

Ok, now let us get to our formation and splits (before we get to the actual play). Pay attention to the splits by the WRs. The formation is so condensed with both of them having 3 and 5 yard splits. This formation and these splits (a) absolutely activate the SS (you'll see him walk down into the box) and (b) bring the CBs heavily into play merely due to proximity. This is a HUGE boon for the defense when you've got aggressive, physical, assignment-sound run defenders at the CB position (which Detroit has). Whoever the play-side receiver is better win and win big because a loss there will absolutely shut down the bounce and in a significant way. If a Zone running play is forced to declare inside before the play has even started, that is a net win for the defense.

Ok, now lets look at the play.

Its Inside Zone to the wide side of the field (the left or Mike's side). Further, we're doing something weird with the backside TE. They run a quick fake like they're Zone blocking in then run a quickout to the flat. This is definitely not an RPO (look at the QB's handling of the ball) so that action can only be meant to stall Hutchinson to prevent a chase down from the backside or allow for a cutback off the backside Center/Guard. It doesn't work. It shouldn't work. The timing is totally off so Hutchinson's read isn't labored by the action because the ball is already in the RB's belly and (as mentioned above) Baker's behavior doesn't exhibit the characteristics of RPO. And further...who is scared of Kieft on that action? And how much have we showed it on tape as a counter? The answer is "no one" and "virtually never." So the action that is meant to prevent the backside chase-down and/or open up the cutback off the backside Center/Guard is already an absolute dud (in all ways). Hutchinson is entirely in position to chase down the play from behind and prevent the Center/Guard crease cutback.

Now lets look at the rest of the actual assignments:

Center: If your IOL loses in Inside Zone the play is dead. Look at how badly Hainsey is dominated here. Line of Scrimmage utterly reset. Hainsey cannot win 1v1 against NTs in this league on play-side blocks (which is why we're an ok Duo team as he's working backside of the play and with leverage). This IMMEDIATELY forces the track of the ball to either declare well wide of the intended play track and kills any cutback prospect immediately. If that wasn't bad enough...

RG/RT: Mauch has a 2i tech with a lot of leverage to the play-side vs Goedeke. So Mauch has to chip & climb (or at least peel) and Goedeke has to get over there quickly enough to work himself into position to not get outleveraged to the playside by the 2i tech (with that initial stall/help from Mauch). They're both just too slow in handling this. Mauch never gets off his initial block of the 2i to climb or at least peel Anzalone (who is the backside A gap fit). Anzalone easily shoots the backside A gap and kills the play even further. The NT's win over Hainsey and LoS reset killed the cutback prospect as did the design vs Hutchinson. But this just seals the deal entirely while simultanously basically killing the play dead. Its a free runner to the ball AFTER its been forced to reset its track due to the NT win.

LG: Feiler does enough of his job here.

LT: Wirfs wins initially but doesn't sustain.

WR: Mike's effort isn't remotely good enough. The reduced split here and the CB win seals the deal on the play.

++++++++++++++++++++

I'm not going to put in the work and post a bunch of GIFs and breakdowns, but this kind of stuff litters the game tape. We lose in the running game in every way you can lose. Concept-wise we lose (where is the motion to disrupt defensive alignment and post-snap responsibilities/fits right as they're emerging and/or deactivate DBs from the running game?...where are all of the counters off of our running game to belabor key defender's processing loops?). Personnel and down and distance match-up-wise we lose. We lose with our splits (particularly those splits without motion). Then we actually lose post snap with the play itself from stuff like Kieft's move here supposed to be stalling out Hutchinson (nope...not happening) to folks losing left and right (especially pivot points of the play).

This is not a running back problem.

This sort of thing is all over the tape. This play is DoA probably before its even snapped (and certainly the moment after). We're lucky to get a measly 2 yards here.

And here is the other thing. When you're a running back and this sort of thing happens routinely? Guess what? You become less instinctive and natural as a runner. When the play track and the rules for cutback are obliterated from the go (possibly even "pre-go"), your brain doesn't work like its supposed to and that shit rolls downhill, feeding into future running plays once this happens enough.

[Backside]

Great insight, thank you.

Man, I thought we were getting road graders on that interior Oline. Mauch was supposed to be a glass eater? What happened? Run game is so disappointing. Where is Ko Kieft?

[Pirate Life]

Love reading your analysis, thank you. Boggles my mind we don't try to do a play action pass from this more often.. Defenses are coming out in base when they see we line up like this - it's much the same as last season. At this point, almost feels like Bowles is trying to dictate we run this way since we saw this a lot last year as well.

[Nobody]

Enough of the running game and its problems.

The passing game is actually producing a lot of wins and did so in this game as well. The pass protection was pretty solid on the whole as well. There are a lot of play-produced open receivers and a lot of separation. Baker had his worse game and Mike didn't play well.

You plug in a 2020/21 Tom Brady that isn't checked out into this game? We put 30 points on them no problem.

After reviewing the tape its pretty what I thought. Both passing games "won" in terms of play-call vs defense and in pass protection. Their QB produced elite play and their WRs made their plays. Our QB was well, well south of it and our WRs didn't make their plays.

Finally, here are the defensive play calls on 3rd and long where we lost:

Touchdown Lions
NOW PLAYING
(2:49) (Shotgun) J.Goff pass short left to A.St. Brown for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd & 13 at TB 27

* 3 Zone Blitz (White)

20 Yard Pass
(:50) (Shotgun) J.Goff pass short right to J.Reynolds to DET 40 for 20 yards (R.Neal; A.Winfield).

[Nobody]

Enough of the running game and its problems.

The passing game is actually producing a lot of wins and did so in this game as well. The pass protection was pretty solid on the whole as well. There are a lot of play-produced open receivers and a lot of separation. Baker had his worse game and Mike didn't play well.

You plug in a 2020/21 Tom Brady that isn't checked out into this game? We put 30 points on them no problem.

After reviewing the tape its pretty what I thought. Both passing games "won" in terms of play-call vs defense and in pass protection. Their QB produced elite play and their WRs made their plays. Our QB was well, well south of it and our WRs didn't make their plays.

Finally, here are the defensive play calls on 3rd and long where we lost:

Touchdown Lions
NOW PLAYING
(2:49) (Shotgun) J.Goff pass short left to A.St. Brown for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd & 13 at TB 27

* 3 Zone Blitz (White)

20 Yard Pass
(:50) (Shotgun) J.Goff pass short right to J.Reynolds to DET 40 for 20 yards (R.Neal; A.Winfield).

* Match Quarters

12 Yard Pass
(4:22) (Shotgun) J.Goff pass short middle to K.Raymond to TB 45 for 12 yards (Z.McCollum, L.David).

* High Hole (LVD deep drop rather than running High Hole like in Tampa 2) 3 Zone Blitz (White replacing JTS so 7 dropping)

+++++++++++++++++

We don't play Man nearly enough on 3rd and long. We virtually never drop 8 on 3rd and long. Where is the 2 Man on 3rd and long? Where is the 1 Man Free on 3rd and long with the free player doubling their best receiver. Where is the KC Chiefs in the Super Bowl gameplan (where we did these things?).

Way too much Zone (matchup or otherwise) on 3rd down and long. Its like we've got PTSD from a QB converting with their feet on 3rd and long a few times and now we just rarely ever run Man on 3rd and long. Its always the same story. Bring a 5th and drop 6 into Zone and lose or drop 7 into Zone or play Matchup.

More non-blitz Man on 3rd and long.

More running the football out of unconventional formations and with Jet motion across or away from the formation (and counters off of those).

Please.

[uscbucsfan1]

@Nobody I saw on Twitter that PFF said that David and Kancey had horrible games. David with a 47 and Kancy with a 49.

Figured you'd get a laugh out of Kancey's rating.

[Bootz]

@Nobody I saw on Twitter that PFF said that David and Kancey had horrible games. David with a 47 and Kancy with a 49.

Figured you'd get a laugh out of Kancey's rating.

I'd hate to see how they rated DW

[Nobody]

@Nobody I saw on Twitter that PFF said that David and Kancey had horrible games. David with a 47 and Kancy with a 49.

Figured you'd get a laugh out of Kancey's rating.

Yup. I've said it a ton about PFF, but I'll say it again (as someone who has long had a subscription to PFF and supports their grading methodology, their grading generally, definitely their advanced metrics suite):

* PFF Grades are good metrics of assignment soundness broadly.

* As you increase sample size (eg, you go from one game to one year), the evaluation improves.

* A game grade, by itself, does not equal bad game for player, and that is particularly so for certain positions that are governed by high amplitude contribution. You have to integrate the whole thing; tape, game grade, positional relevance to spike production vs stability in production, and advanced metrics.

* I agree with PFF grades a lot when it comes to game grades and virtually always annually (where the noise is smoothed out). But I absolutely have disagreements sometimes. One of the biggest disagreements (as most know) is Devin White as a prospect. PFF absolutely LOVED Devin White. His grades were incredible and their annual puffed him up like crazy. I saw what I saw when I reviewed a lot of his tape and I wrote my projections based on that tape review (and why I disagreed with PFF's projections).

++++++++++++

So for instance, lets take those two grades. LVD had a few plays that were pretty poor and they were surely graded -2 (one of which was the 3rd and long TD where his inside pursuit angle was very poor...it was a tough ask for him to read > redirect > take correct pursuit angle...but he had a really bad rep there and it was costly). Same thing with Kancey. That is the thing with those grades. A -2 here, another -1 there can really harm what would otherwise be a game full of +1s and a spate of +2s (or throttle that back if its a bunch of 0s, "as expected", and a few -1s).

So, it doesn't bother me that my evaluation of LVD and Kancey for that game don't match up to the PFF grades for this game. No big deal. That happening now and again, especially when its methodologically explainable given how assignment grades resolve and work into the fullness of a game grade, is to be expected. There will be a mismatch now and again between grades and advanced metrics and tape (because they're each sufficiently discrete that they don't always share a tight correlation...especially for certain positions like Edge Rusher or Cornerback). And the same thing goes for PFF's NCAA grades and their prospect projections. I sometimes disagree with their NCAA projections because the lens through which I have looked at prospects (when I was putting a lot of work into that...I'm not anymore) is sometimes rather different than their own. The divergence between their Devin White projections and my own is basically the archetype for that but there have been others (The OL Leatherwood from Alabama being another example...I saw bust all day from him).

So, anyway...that is about all I have to say about that (hat tip Forrest Gump).

[uscbucsfan1]

@Nobody I saw on Twitter that PFF said that David and Kancey had horrible games. David with a 47 and Kancy with a 49.

Figured you'd get a laugh out of Kancey's rating.

I'd hate to see how they rated DW

His total for the year is 51, after that 90.7 opening game. So...pretty low.

[Nobody]

@Nobody I saw on Twitter that PFF said that David and Kancey had horrible games. David with a 47 and Kancy with a 49.

Figured you'd get a laugh out of Kancey's rating.

I'd hate to see how they rated DW

Devin had a 48 game grade (which is terrible) and LVD had a 66 (which is a solid game grade). Typically, 60 is about "as expected", 70 is "good game", with 80+ being elite performance and 90 being "you basically won your assignment play-in and play-out and contributed to a large number of play wins within the context of what your position should be doing."

But again, game grades don't always correlate. That big, fat -2 that LVD surely got on that TD where he was playing Hole and got outleveraged to the sideline due to a poor redirect and poor angle surely harmed his game grade. Total speculation, but if you take that off the board, my guess is his game grade would have been high 70s to low 80s. But being a primary causal factor to huge play losses like that is significant to a game grade. And while it might be significant to a game grade, again, that doesn't tell the whole story for a player. You've got a look at the whole thing and integrate it.

LVD had a really bad play there, but he was absolutely exceptional in coverage, in run defense, and in his few blitzes in that game. He had a bad snap there and another coverage snap that would have been a -1 grade. So stack a gang of +1s and a few +2s on that with several 0s and you get what you get in terms of grades. But there is an abundance of opportunities for -2s and -1s for ILBs because that position is so "in the mix" all the time...so processing and play leverage intensive. You don't process well and/or you play with poor leverage in coverage or in the run game or when diagnosing Screens and blowing them up? Bad grades galore.

[GoldenBudda]

Devin White is an exceptional athlete who has the ability to make big plays, but in run defense he has no gap integrity and in pass defense he jumps at whatever is in front of him.

I think blitzing him more is great, because he is otherwise a much bigger liability to the defense.

In todays NFL only elite coverage or pass rushing ILB's are in there on passing downs. Based on his skill set, DW should be playing around 40-50% of total snaps. He is literally holding the defense back from greatness.

[Pirate Life]

LVD had a really bad play there, but he was absolutely exceptional in coverage, in run defense, and in his few blitzes in that game. He had a bad snap there and another coverage snap that would have been a -1 grade. So stack a gang of +1s and a few +2s on that with several 0s and you get what you get in terms of grades. But there is an abundance of opportunities for -2s and -1s for ILBs because that position is so "in the mix" all the time...so processing and play leverage intensive. You don't process well and/or you play with poor leverage in coverage or in the run game or when diagnosing Screens and blowing them up? Bad grades galore.

One of the PFF guys said that play dinged LVD and that he had 'several' other plays of his graded out poorly. Kancey got dinged for being bad in the run game, which doesn't make much sense considering the Lions couldn't run the ball.

[Onthebrink]

LVD had a really bad play there, but he was absolutely exceptional in coverage, in run defense, and in his few blitzes in that game. He had a bad snap there and another coverage snap that would have been a -1 grade. So stack a gang of +1s and a few +2s on that with several 0s and you get what you get in terms of grades. But there is an abundance of opportunities for -2s and -1s for ILBs because that position is so "in the mix" all the time...so processing and play leverage intensive. You don't process well and/or you play with poor leverage in coverage or in the run game or when diagnosing Screens and blowing them up? Bad grades galore.

One of the PFF guys said that play dinged LVD and that he had 'several' other plays of his graded out poorly. Kancey got dinged for being bad in the run game, which doesn't make much sense considering the Lions couldn't run the ball.

A player can have a poor game against the run even if the other team doesn't run the ball well. A CB can have a fantastic game against the pass even if the other team has a great game passing. I have no clue how well Kancey played but what was said is not logical.

[Grahamburn]

Devin White is an exceptional athlete who has the ability to make big plays, but in run defense he has no gap integrity and in pass defense he jumps at whatever is in front of him.

I think blitzing him more is great, because he is otherwise a much bigger liability to the defense.

In todays NFL only elite coverage or pass rushing ILB's are in there on passing downs. Based on his skill set, DW should be playing around 40-50% of total snaps. He is literally holding the defense back from greatness.

He blitzed multiple times against the Lions with nothing to show for it.

[Nobody]

Couple key passing plays in the 2nd half that were set up to win and just have to be converted by the QB.

Pass Incomplete
(7:52) (Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass incomplete short left to M.Evans.
3rd & 11 at DET 18

We come out 3 x 1 w/ reduced split Single's side and RB set to that same side (creating a 3 x 2). They go 2 Man Under w/ Green Dog (LB begins to add-on in pass rush but retreats when tailback runs a route).

The route combination is actually perfect to free up Mike in the slot on Trips side. You've got him surrounded by a pair of verts to ensure that the Safety over Trips can't double Mike. Its a really good concept against almost any coverage you'll see down in that area to get Mike a 1v1 for an Out at the sticks.

Mike generates a lot of separation (the CB and he have a collision at the top of the route...CB at least generates this collision in part, well after 5 yards, but I'm good with the no call either way here...play-on). Pass protection is excellent. Throwing lane + tons of separation. This ball has to be out and on time and on the money 10/10 times for an easy pitch-and-catch 1st down.

Throw is awry. This is our first possession of the 2nd half and we needed a script-flipping, gamestate changing 6 here. Because we don't convert this (pretty routine QBing) play here, we have to settle for 3. That is big in multiple ways.

[Nobody]

This is the 2nd to last drive where we needed 6 again. This drive features that 3rd and 2 overthrow to Palmer. But look at this 1st down.

Pass for No Gain
(12:00) (Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass short right to D.Thompkins to TB 25 for no gain (C.Sutton).
1st & 10 at TB 25

We've got Trips Right w/ the in-line TE and we run an RPO w/ Otton on the "Pop" and the boundary reciever on a Smoke route.

Both the overhang Nickel DB and the MLB go hard to their run fits so Baker wisely pulls it from the belly of the RB. But the ball has to go to Otton here. The RPO "Pop" series is peanut league stuff. No idea why he went to the Smoke route. There is a huge and easy window to Otton's Seam/Bow route here. If that ball is on him, its a big gain on 1st down and we aren't lamenting the miss of the hugely open Palmer on 3rd and 2.

Just a really poor game for Baker. Lots of opportunities in the passing game and that is both schemed wins and key chances to get yards on the ground with his feet in key situations such as the series prior to this where they show Double A Gap blitz and end up overloading the left side...he could have escaped right and gone for a gang of yards on the scramble...easy first down...but he lobs a Swing pass to the RB into the teeth of the blitz that gets batted down).

[Jonny]

Thank you @Nobody for an amazing thread of content. Reading your last couple of posts makes one thing obvious. Baker's a tease, very much like Winston and Freeman. I don't have as much of an issue with his inaccurate passes. My issue is with him not choosing to target wide open receivers because his anticipation is poor or his lack of confidence in believing what his eyes are seeing. This has been a recurring theme for 5 games, even the ones where we won because of his gritty playmaking ability.

I'm tired of learning week in and week out that many points were left on the field.

Having said all this, I will still continue having fun watching Baker play for us. He's got a live arm and he leaves it all out there.

[Grahamburn]

Everyone has bad games, but this one was such a let down. Obvious play wins were missed by Baker that would have changed the outcome of the game.