New York Jets Official Thread

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Doctor
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Re: New York Jets Official Thread

Post by Doctor »

I put near zero weight on "how good the upcoming class is". For such a thing to actually carry weight you have to go off the premise that we know wtf we're talking about which history has proven we absolutely do not.

Navybuc is right, if they win, it's all worth it, case closed. Though I'll say even that is a bit overzealous because by that measuring stick literally every trade that did not result in either team winning a Super Bowl was a "bad trade". That would make almost every trade ever a bad one, which is just silly.

The Hackett/Rodgers duo gives the Jets a legit window and the best odds that they've had in decades, THAT makes it a good trade.
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Re: New York Jets Official Thread

Post by Doctor »

A bit dated but a ten year analysis of picks reveals:
16.7% didn’t play for the team that drafted them
37% were considered useless. They either didn’t play much or didn’t make the team.
15.3% were considered poor. Had limited playing time and didn’t do well in the time they had.
10.5% were considered average. These are mediocre players that had starts or significant contributions over 2-3 years.
12.3% were considered good. These could be mediocre or average players that were multi-year starters, Pat Elflein or Christian Ponder for example, or perhaps some genuinely good players that didn’t last all that long for the team that drafted them- Sidney Rice for example. This is where the AV metric can over-rate a player based on the number of starts, rather than their performance while on the field.
6.9% were considered Great. This category is the first that includes undeniably good draft picks. In order to be considered great, they would’ve had to play for the team that drafted them into a second contract, and also performed well over those years.
1% were considered legendary. These are future Hall of Famers, multi-year All-Pros among the best in the league for most of their relatively long careers.

And so only about 8% of draft picks are players that really make much of a difference beyond replacement value, and only about 30% see much playing time or make a significant contribution to the team.
https://www.dailynorseman.com/2017/4/12 ... -are-busts


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Draft picks are like the "mystery box" in the Peter Griffin meme.

You don't pass up such a great opportunity for a couple of mystery boxes who are very likely to never even move the needle for your franchise.
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Re: New York Jets Official Thread

Post by _MB_ »

acmillis wrote: Tue Apr 25, 2023 10:29 am
Navybuc wrote: Tue Apr 25, 2023 9:58 am If the Jets win the SB, it was worth it. If not, well, you just gave up a 1st and 2nd rounder for a 2-year rental. You lost a first rounder in next years very rich qb class where they could have easily got a franchise qb far better than anything in this year’s. Hell, the second rounders next year will be better than the top 5 in this years. And they still have a lot of holes to fill.

And the Jets are not in the NFC. Getting through the Bills, KC, and Cincy is brutal…not to mention an improving Jags, Miami, and Chargers team. Yeah, good luck Jets fans.
You should play the lottery with insight this foreshadowing.
He's got one of those mats on the floor with conclusions on it. So you can JUMP... to a conclusion!

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Re: New York Jets Official Thread

Post by Obsolete »

_MB_ wrote: Tue Apr 25, 2023 1:17 pm
acmillis wrote: Tue Apr 25, 2023 10:29 am

You should play the lottery with insight this foreshadowing.
He's got one of those mats on the floor with conclusions on it. So you can JUMP... to a conclusion!

(Heavy breathing)
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Re: New York Jets Official Thread

Post by Doctor »

Aaron Rodgers went 80-10 with the Packers when they allowed fewer than 20 points.

The Jets allowed 18.6 PPG last season
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Re: New York Jets Official Thread

Post by kaimaru »

Aaron Rodgers also had his worst yards, TDs, and INTs per game since being a starter. It was his 4th worse completion percentage. He is on the downhill of his career, and his bullshit the last year is clearly affecting his decision making. The packers scored less than 20 points 8 times out of 17 last year. I doubt that stat lasts for this season.
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Re: New York Jets Official Thread

Post by Doctor »

I remember a similar song being sung about Brady's last year in NE.
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Re: New York Jets Official Thread

Post by kaimaru »

Rodgers is not inheriting Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Gronk, and AB and a Super Bowl quality Oline that had Smith playing with fire in his pants.
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Re: New York Jets Official Thread

Post by Navybuc »

Doctor wrote: Tue Apr 25, 2023 6:29 pm I remember a similar song being sung about Brady's last year in NE.
A) Rodgers isn’t Brady
B) The Bucs had better players around Brady than Jets around AR
C) Brady came to the NFC…Rodgers is going to a monster in the AFC.
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Re: New York Jets Official Thread

Post by Doctor »

Those are all different points.
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Re: New York Jets Official Thread

Post by _MB_ »

Hey, we got a chance to get a W against the Packers now.
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Re: New York Jets Official Thread

Post by Cheb »

_MB_ wrote: Wed Apr 26, 2023 9:02 pm Hey, we got a chance to get a W against the Packers now.
We've played the Packers once a year for the past three years and beat them twice, including in the NFC championship during our Superbowl season.

The Packers didn't scare me before during that time and they don't now.
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Re: New York Jets Official Thread

Post by 13F11B »

If Rodgers wins it all with the Jets. Brady will come out of retirement, join Green Bay and win it all twice.
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Re: New York Jets Official Thread

Post by acmillis »

It appears the Packers converted Aaron Rodgers' $58.3M 2023 option bonus into 2024 salary, which means he's scheduled to make $1.165M this year and $107.55M next year. So he'd only count $1.165M against the Jets' cap this year, and obviously they'll restructure next year.

Obviously the 2024 $ is fake, but just seeing that on SPOTRAC ($107M) is insane!
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Re: New York Jets Official Thread

Post by MJW »

Doctor wrote: Tue Apr 25, 2023 9:18 am Can you overpay for going from from first pick candidate to SB contender?

Jets just showed up the Broncos and Rams trading for a SB window for a pair of 2nds and people really going to nitpick they could've squeezed a little more.

Why "simply offer a 2nd take it or leave it", why not just a 7th, given how airtight your argument is?
1) If you thought they were a "first pick contender" but Aaron Rodgers single-handedly makes them a Superbowl Contender, I don't know what to tell you.

2) So it's Nitpicking to point out that they gave up too much draft capital? Not understanding how value works does not make people who do understand wrong.

3) Why not offer ten first round picks?

They overpaid. They gave up more than they needed to considering their bargaining position. Full stop.
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Re: New York Jets Official Thread

Post by Doctor »

I love fantasy football but one of the most annoying things it's done is bring "value" into the mainstream of real life football. Perfection is the enemy of progress and value is just another form of hindsight.

Draft picks continue to get more and more "overvalued" because people are just so convinced of how well they think they can draft.

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Re: New York Jets Official Thread

Post by McFan »

Well done keeping this thread open while I recovered from my third back surgery.... Aaron Rodgers? Of course I'm happy. We have a legit, if not "long in the tooth" QB for the first time since Brett Favre. Their draft: Rated C+ by the experts and I gave them a "B" considering what picks that had available.

Look, I'm not making Super Bowl plans. The AFC is a beast. But I have what most JETS wanted. A fair shot. Not asking more than that. But, JETS being who they are, some shoe will drop.
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Re: New York Jets Official Thread

Post by Doctor »

Swift recovery buddy! Then you can trade your recovery to the Eagles for peanuts.
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Re: New York Jets Official Thread

Post by McFan »

Doctor wrote: Mon May 01, 2023 9:49 am Swift recovery buddy! Then you can trade your recovery to the Eagles for peanuts.
I live in Eagles country...That fanbase is beyond sickening.
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Re: New York Jets Official Thread

Post by McFan »

So how's everyone been doing? Ive been just fine thank you for asking since I become a senior citizen in about 6 weeks, life is flying by. Love that the Bucs are wearing the orange a couple games. Those uniforms ROCK. As for my JETS? don't count me among the delusional who think they're a Super Bowl contender, because they aren't. But they're going to be a fun watch until the inevitable happens. If they make the playoffs, I'll be thrilled. But they have plenty of issues including a horrific offensive line with 2 good guards and little else.

Anyway, look forward to spending another season here with my old (and some new) friends at the TBBBB. How's my main man, Patrick McIrish doing?
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Re: New York Jets Official Thread

Post by mdb1958 »

How's my main man, Patrick McIrish doing?


Sitting on the shelf collecting dust - as if you didnt know.
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Re: New York Jets Official Thread

Post by McFan »

mdb1958 wrote: Tue Aug 15, 2023 2:47 pm
How's my main man, Patrick McIrish doing?


Sitting on the shelf collecting dust - as if you didnt know.
I really didn't
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Re: New York Jets Official Thread

Post by mdb1958 »

McFan wrote: Wed Aug 16, 2023 10:10 am
mdb1958 wrote: Tue Aug 15, 2023 2:47 pm



Sitting on the shelf collecting dust - as if you didnt know.
I really didn't


Seems that I was wrong then Mr McFan.
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Re: New York Jets Official Thread

Post by McFan »

mdb1958 wrote: Wed Aug 16, 2023 10:22 am Seems that I was wrong then Mr McFan.
No problem.
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Re: New York Jets Official Thread

Post by Central_Buc »

Lots of fights I heard yesterday
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Re: New York Jets Official Thread

Post by McFan »

Central_Buc wrote: Thu Aug 17, 2023 9:14 am Lots of fights I heard yesterday
Jets have major problems on the offensive line. I'm told the Jets defense caused most of the skirmishes. From what I read, nothing major but the JETS DB coach took a "friendly fire" shot and as was knocked cold. Ambulance took him away.

Should be an interesting preseason game. Jets have the eyes of the world on them this year. I'm hoping they don't melt like a stick of butter on a Tampa beach.
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Re: New York Jets Official Thread

Post by Central_Buc »

McFan wrote: Thu Aug 17, 2023 9:27 am
Central_Buc wrote: Thu Aug 17, 2023 9:14 am Lots of fights I heard yesterday
Jets have major problems on the offensive line. I'm told the Jets defense caused most of the skirmishes. From what I read, nothing major but the JETS DB coach took a "friendly fire" shot and as was knocked cold. Ambulance took him away.

Should be an interesting preseason game. Jets have the eyes of the world on them this year. I'm hoping they don't melt like a stick of butter on a Tampa beach.
You guys have a brutal schedule this year, you pretty much have to win most of the divisional games
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Re: New York Jets Official Thread

Post by _MB_ »

Central_Buc wrote: Thu Aug 17, 2023 9:41 am
McFan wrote: Thu Aug 17, 2023 9:27 am

Jets have major problems on the offensive line. I'm told the Jets defense caused most of the skirmishes. From what I read, nothing major but the JETS DB coach took a "friendly fire" shot and as was knocked cold. Ambulance took him away.

Should be an interesting preseason game. Jets have the eyes of the world on them this year. I'm hoping they don't melt like a stick of butter on a Tampa beach.
You guys have a brutal schedule this year, you pretty much have to win most of the divisional games
That's the whole league, man.

You have six division games and you can 4-2 in those games and still miss the playoffs if it doesn't win the division.

Those are the six most important games on the schedule. You can be a .500 football team after that and you're still playing meaningful football in January.

The Jets six games are against the Bills, Dolphins, and Patriots. All of them must win games for everyone involved.
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Re: New York Jets Official Thread

Post by BuccaNOLEer »

The whole AFC East is going to be brutal this year. It wouldn't surprise me if all 4 teams make the playoffs now that there's a 7 team playoff. It's only a matter of time before it goes to 8.
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Re: New York Jets Official Thread

Post by TonyLip »

Zack Rosenblatt
@ZackBlatt
The last Aaron Rodgers run against the Bucs:

Sack
Sack
Quick completion to Garrett Wilson
Quick completion to Allen Lazard
Quick completion to CJ Uzomah
Sack
Sack
11:57 AM · Aug 16, 2023
·
Ouch.
Need some more OL guys I guess.
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Re: New York Jets Official Thread

Post by Central_Buc »

I think this just says more about Our DLine than their OL... Ours might be top 5 by the end of the year.
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Re: New York Jets Official Thread

Post by McFan »

TonyLip wrote: Fri Aug 18, 2023 3:53 pm Zack Rosenblatt
@ZackBlatt
The last Aaron Rodgers run against the Bucs:

Sack
Sack
Quick completion to Garrett Wilson
Quick completion to Allen Lazard
Quick completion to CJ Uzomah
Sack
Sack
11:57 AM · Aug 16, 2023
·
Ouch.
Need some more OL guys I guess.
Controlled scrimmages are not indicative of anything really. But Jets OL is not very good unless completely healthy.
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Re: New York Jets Official Thread

Post by McFan »

As a JETS fan, I didn't care for Hard Knocks one bit. Way too much attention on a team who's done and accomplished nothing so far. Am I optimistic? Certainly.. But Super Bowl or bust? Give me a break. Their expectations levels are totally over the top. Shame on Jets fans for forgetting their past. How about watching the games and hoping (praying) for some real progress? The real fan base should know better.

<end rant>
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Re: New York Jets Official Thread

Post by Bootz »

McFan wrote: Fri Sep 08, 2023 8:35 am As a JETS fan, I didn't care for Hard Knocks one bit. Way too much attention on a team who's done and accomplished nothing so far. Am I optimistic? Certainly.. But Super Bowl or bust? Give me a break. Their expectations levels are totally over the top. Shame on Jets fans for forgetting their past. How about watching the games and hoping (praying) for some real progress? The real fan base should know better.

<end rant>
It's the right mentality to have. You can't live in the past because the past does nothing for your present. Why should fans care that they haven't won a playoff game since Mark Sanchez? They should absolutely be looking forward to a run with Aaron Rodgers and company. Hell, look at the Bucs in 2020 with Brady. You think our mentality wasn't "Superbowl or bust"?

Enjoy it man. The window is small but the Jets do have a window finally.
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Re: New York Jets Official Thread

Post by McFan »

Bootz wrote: Fri Sep 08, 2023 8:38 am It's the right mentality to have. You can't live in the past because the past does nothing for your present. Why should fans care that they haven't won a playoff game since Mark Sanchez? They should absolutely be looking forward to a run with Aaron Rodgers and company. Hell, look at the Bucs in 2020 with Brady. You think our mentality wasn't "Superbowl or bust"?

Enjoy it man. The window is small but the Jets do have a window finally.
Yes, that's fair and most JETS fans retort as well. I will enjoy the ride as the ride commences. But apprehension comes with the territory. The window is very small. And I'm old enough to appreciate the attempt. BUT, why allow myself that much optimism regarding this franchise? I'll be thrilled AS IT HAPPENS, not one minute before. Just the guards I've put up with so much disappointment.
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