Time to blow it up

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King Bootz
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Re: Time to blow it up

Post by King Bootz »

Snake wrote: Fri Feb 03, 2023 11:40 am I think the rationale is half performance and half the anticipated cost of a LB who struggles the way he does in important facets of the game.

If DW45 is willing to sign for $8m a year, sure, keep him. If he wants $16m+...cya.

LVD was making like $12.5m a year to play almost perfect football. (cap inflation, yada yada)

DW45 also has 4000 defensive snaps in the NFL. The rawness is really just who he is as a player.
This is subjective opinion more than anything. I mean the only differences between them are DW is way more active as a pass rusher and creates more turnovers than LVD. LVD makes slightly more plays in the backfield but all told they ended up with the same number of tackles.

I say subjective because it seems people are basing their assessment on DW around "subjective" statistical data from the likes of PFF. Data they wouldn't otherwise be able to explain because PFF itself does not explain how they come up with said data. I suppose "they know more than me so they must be right" is a somewhat understandable position.
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King Bootz
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Re: Time to blow it up

Post by King Bootz »

Snake
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Re: Time to blow it up

Post by Snake »

Most of us watch the games. I take PFF as a secondary resource for the Bucs. It confirms/refutes what I see.

In this case: White has a splash play every few games and is getting gashed and out of position a lot of the time. He plays 99% of the snaps at ILB, so he’s gonna have tackles. James Laurinaitis had 150 tackle seasons. He wasn’t good.
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Re: Time to blow it up

Post by Kona »

White has already publicly stated he’s looking for a 100 mil contract, and this was before he was even drafted. Do we think he’s worth more than 20 mil a year? I don’t. The occasional splash plays don’t outweigh the mental errors, poor coverage and missed tackles. He’s going into year 5, I think we see what we have at this point. I’d rather use that 20 mil a year to pay Wirfs and see what we can get for White.

That being said, he probably plays out this year, maybe the tag after next, but if Licht is still here he will surely give him that contract.
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Re: Time to blow it up

Post by Snake »

The Bucs don’t need to actively tank.

They went 8-9 with a roster that will probably be better than the 2023-2024 roster and in the worst division in football.

New offensive staff, also a huge downgrade at quarterback (likely), and they still have Todd Bowles.
Last edited by Snake on Fri Feb 03, 2023 12:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Time to blow it up

Post by Snake »

Kona wrote: Fri Feb 03, 2023 12:13 pm White has already publicly stated he’s looking for a 100 mil contract, and this was before he was even drafted. Do we think he’s worth more than 20 mil a year? I don’t. The occasional splash plays don’t outweigh the mental errors, poor coverage and missed tackles. He’s going into year 5, I think we see what we have at this point. I’d rather use that 20 mil a year to pay Wirfs and see what we can get for White.

That being said, he probably plays out this year, maybe the tag after next, but if Licht is still here he will surely give him that contract.
When you’re going into year five, and you have 4000 defensive snaps to your name, “raw” means technically unsound, prone to mental mistakes, but really athletic!
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Re: Time to blow it up

Post by 13F11B »

Kona wrote: Fri Feb 03, 2023 12:13 pm White has already publicly stated he’s looking for a 100 mil contract, and this was before he was even drafted. Do we think he’s worth more than 20 mil a year? I don’t. The occasional splash plays don’t outweigh the mental errors, poor coverage and missed tackles. He’s going into year 5, I think we see what we have at this point. I’d rather use that 20 mil a year to pay Wirfs and see what we can get for White.

That being said, he probably plays out this year, maybe the tag after next, but if Licht is still here he will surely give him that contract.
From what I have seen I would not give him a 100 mil contract. If his play continued from the Super Bowl run, yes. Now, that said it could be piss-poor defensive coaching.
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Re: Time to blow it up

Post by Doctor »

Two things that bother me

1) This idea that, "Hey, LVD makes $12M, I'd rather just get another LVD at that price than White".... like, what? I'm sorry are there just LVD walking the streets?

2) If we're going to pay out $100M, I'd rather it be for Roquan Smith... again, is he available?


You all understand WHY contracts, particularly QB ones, keep going up and up? And we always say "overpaid" and eventually end up with "well there aren't other options on the market and that's market value". I get the White hasn't been as technically sounds as guys we're use to like Books and David. I don't know if his market will actually be $100M. But I do know there aren't many players with ceilings like White. You don't want to commit to a full $100M, that's what the franchise tag is for.

I've never seen a fanbase so eager to get rid of talent they so rarely get blessed with.
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Re: Time to blow it up

Post by Snake »

I honestly just don’t see the point in paying any inside linebacker a fat check who is not elite in coverage. That’s where I am at this point.
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Re: Time to blow it up

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Where you're at is an alternate universe where actual NFL practices don't exist.
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Re: Time to blow it up

Post by Puss in Boots »

King Bootz wrote: Fri Feb 03, 2023 11:50 am
Snake wrote: Fri Feb 03, 2023 11:40 am I think the rationale is half performance and half the anticipated cost of a LB who struggles the way he does in important facets of the game.

If DW45 is willing to sign for $8m a year, sure, keep him. If he wants $16m+...cya.

LVD was making like $12.5m a year to play almost perfect football. (cap inflation, yada yada)

DW45 also has 4000 defensive snaps in the NFL. The rawness is really just who he is as a player.
This is subjective opinion more than anything. I mean the only differences between them are DW is way more active as a pass rusher and creates more turnovers than LVD. LVD makes slightly more plays in the backfield but all told they ended up with the same number of tackles.

I say subjective because it seems people are basing their assessment on DW around "subjective" statistical data from the likes of PFF. Data they wouldn't otherwise be able to explain because PFF itself does not explain how they come up with said data. I suppose "they know more than me so they must be right" is a somewhat understandable position.
PFF explains their grading system here:

https://www.pff.com/grades
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Re: Time to blow it up

Post by Cheb »

Snake wrote: Fri Feb 03, 2023 1:01 pm I honestly just don’t see the point in paying any inside linebacker a fat check who is not elite in coverage. That’s where I am at this point.
That's a sound argument to make and one that's hard to argue against.

That said, Devin White is a unique athlete and the incumbent young leader on the defense, and when he's on he's among the best in the game.

I don't know what I would do with him from a contract perspective to be honest, and I feel that both those who want to pay him and those who don't speak from points of equal validity.

Honestly, I think that trying him out at edge wouldn't be a bad experiment. He is a close athletic comp to Haason Reddick, who was second in the league in sacks this year and also started out as an off-ball backer before being moved to full-time pass rusher, and it has paid dividends for him in a big way. And Devin is more explosive than Haason. Then Devin would be playing at the line of scrimmage where he excels, he could use his speed in space to greater effect, and wouldn't have to worry about peek-a-booing into gaps that don't belong to him.

But what do I know.
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Re: Time to blow it up

Post by The Outsider »

Cheb wrote: Fri Feb 03, 2023 9:11 pm
Snake wrote: Fri Feb 03, 2023 1:01 pm I honestly just don’t see the point in paying any inside linebacker a fat check who is not elite in coverage. That’s where I am at this point.
That's a sound argument to make and one that's hard to argue against.

That said, Devin White is a unique athlete and the incumbent young leader on the defense, and when he's on he's among the best in the game.

I don't know what I would do with him from a contract perspective to be honest, and I feel that both those who want to pay him and those who don't speak from points of equal validity.

Honestly, I think that trying him out at edge wouldn't be a bad experiment. He is a close athletic comp to Haason Reddick, who was second in the league in sacks this year and also started out as an off-ball backer before being moved to full-time pass rusher, and it has paid dividends for him in a big way. And Devin is more explosive than Haason. Then Devin would be playing at the line of scrimmage where he excels, he could use his speed in space to greater effect, and wouldn't have to worry about peek-a-booing into gaps that don't belong to him.

But what do I know.
Putting Devin White at edge is the new put LVD at ILB for me. I was clamoring for LVD and Kwon to switch positions for like 3 years before we finally brought in Arians and switched to a 3-4.
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Re: Time to blow it up

Post by Al Bundy »

Devin White is a bad football player. He has had 1 4 game stretch. I'm not sure what anyone see's in him at this point.
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Re: Time to blow it up

Post by MJW »

King Bootz wrote: Fri Feb 03, 2023 11:59 am
I think I can clarify the two decisions that define "tanking" vs "not tanking:"

Ready?

One is attempting to bring in an expensive quarterback who isn't actually that good...or not.

The other is making decisions that keep us in cap hell for multiple upcoming seasons...or not.

Everything else is minor details.

If you want to pay $30 mil for the 22nd best quarterback in the league, and enjoy more years in cap hell, congrats, you're anti-tanking.
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Re: Time to blow it up

Post by BucsNBills »

I mean I'm all for tanking as the first choice, but the idea of us being in cap hell perpetually if we don't cut a bunch of players and do minimal cap shuffling is just wrong.

With Brady retiring damn near half out negative cap disappears and getting to black is beyond trivial.

We can get up to nearly $70 million in cap space this year with like $40 million in. 2024 and tons of cap that can continue to be pushed.

In fact if we're not tanking then I WANT us to go all out with kicking the can so we can actually have a shot at fielding a good team.

My worst fear is doing some pussyfoot middle ground where we barely add to the team and only end up winning 5 or 6 games, putting us firmly out of elite rookie QB prospect range.

Go big or go home in either direction imo.
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Re: Time to blow it up

Post by 13F11B »

I do not want the Buccaneers to blow it up. I want to ensure they have the right coach to rebuild (retool, restock, reload, or whatever other stupid ass PC word you want to use for it) a championship level roster. I have serious doubts about Bowles. I have doubts about Licht, but he did produce the roster that surrounded Brady. I am not one to think that Trask is bad without the young man even having a chance to play with the ones. Not going to predict great things either, but people throwing the kid under the bus need to stop. The team is not a serious contender right now. It might be in two years if the right pieces are brought in and the cap can be cleared. However, with the wrong coach this is not going to happen. With a lame duck one year left coach things are just going to get messed up.

tl:dr -- If Bowles is retained he should be kept for a minimum of three years and be under contract for four. If the Buccaneers are not willing to commit to that then they should move on now to a coach they are willing to do that for.
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Re: Time to blow it up

Post by MJW »

Let me ask a simple roster question -

Pretend we don't know who the coaches or the GM is, or how good our division or the NFC is. Take all that stuff out of the equation.

The only information you have is a) our roster b) our contracts, including our free agents c) our cap situation. Which is to say, what our likely 53 will look like next year.

With me? Okay. How would you rate the projected 2023 roster and it's chances of succeeding?

A) A legit Superbowl contender, like the Chiefs, Eagles, 49ers, or Bengals.
B) A second-tier contender who could make a real run if A LOT of things break right. Say, the Cowboys, Vikings, Ravens, Chargers, etc.
C) A third-tier not-really-a-contender who might occasionally look like a Contender for a Week or Two, but everyone knows isn't. The Giants, the Seahawks, the Dolphins...ummm...us last year.
D) A fourth tier team that will complain about COTY voting if they squeeze out 9 or 10 wins, but will probably only win 6-8. The Commanders, the Raiders, the Jets, etc.
E) A team measuring the season in growth and signs of hope.

IMHO, if we kick the cap as hard as we can and make a play for Derek Carr or Jimmy G...we're a low-end C Team or a D Team. There are too many holes in the roster, too many thin units, and not enough money. Becoming a B team would take a hilarious amount of development and luck from our young players, our team trainers, the bouncing ball, the JAG quarterback having a career season, etc. And becoming a legit contender is fucking insane.
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Re: Time to blow it up

Post by BucsNBills »

Who knows what we'll be, but I think whether we like it or not Licht and Bowles are going to try to secure their own jobs above all else which means they're going to just and run we are many games as possible.

We could plug several holes via FA and the draft and if we take a swing at QB, we could be in the mix in the NFC.

Who knows who the contenders will be in 2023. There's always injuries and underperformers and surprises.

Again, I'm on team blow it up, but I doubt that happens. So it's time to start thinking about ways to get this roster as strong as possible for about division title push.
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Re: Time to blow it up

Post by mdb1958 »

What a thread name, way to go O' Canada. 25 players, some will leave because we arent going to pay them and some will leave because we don't want them any more. A lot of them don't give me the jump of the bridge vibe as it is, new blood isnt necessarily bad blood. Make good picks and actually teach day three prospects.
Risk the dead biscuit and do some free draft diamonds. Play hard, learn and see how it turns out. I'm thinking players have it on their mind that there are real opportunities possible.

Done deal.
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Re: Time to blow it up

Post by Doctor »

The cognitive dissonance in here is fascinating.

-If we don't blow it up and tank we'll suck for years!!
Why can't we blow it up next year? It's funny how tankers believe their strategy is a one bullet cure-all yet if we don't do it we're doomed for years.

-We have too many holes!!
And you plug holes by making more?

-Look at our Roster....
It's the offseason. We have half a roster. Free agency and the draft haven't happened. This "if you only count the guys under contract" exercise is stupid. Signed, Lamar and Jalen
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Re: Time to blow it up

Post by 13F11B »

MJW wrote: Sat Feb 04, 2023 7:59 am Let me ask a simple roster question -

Pretend we don't know who the coaches or the GM is, or how good our division or the NFC is. Take all that stuff out of the equation.

The only information you have is a) our roster b) our contracts, including our free agents c) our cap situation. Which is to say, what our likely 53 will look like next year.

D) A fourth tier team that will complain about COTY voting if they squeeze out 9 or 10 wins, but will probably only win 6-8. The Commanders, the Raiders, the Jets, etc.
I put us at D. If Trask pulls a Purdy. Perhaps that can get to a B if management knows that and plan accordingly. However, I am not sure given our current coaching that I would expect that level of player development to take place in one off-season.
Doctor wrote: Sat Feb 04, 2023 11:04 am The cognitive dissonance in here is fascinating.

-If we don't blow it up and tank we'll suck for years!!
Why can't we blow it up next year? It's funny how tankers believe their strategy is a one bullet cure-all yet if we don't do it we're doomed for years.

-We have too many holes!!
And you plug holes by making more?

-Look at our Roster....
It's the offseason. We have half a roster. Free agency and the draft haven't happened. This "if you only count the guys under contract" exercise is stupid. Signed, Lamar and Jalen
I am not saying tank. I am asking if Bowles is the answer. I do not think he is.

If he is not then having him lead the team for a year is detrimental to the team and its progress. Players won't develop. Player evaluation will suck. A year will be lost in the process of getting competitive again. The quality guys on the roster will be one year closer to now being on the roster. I do not want to waste a year.
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Re: Time to blow it up

Post by _MB_ »

You don't just run down to the head coach store and pick up a head coach.

We're getting a whole new offensive coaching staff. If we get that right, we just need enough players to be a Todd Bowles defense away from being right back into the mix.

I know that's overly optimistic, but this is literally year one of a whole new era of Bucs football and we aren't starting out with nothing.
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Re: Time to blow it up

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_MB_ wrote: Sat Feb 04, 2023 3:14 pm You don't just run down to the head coach store and pick up a head coach.
True. That also is not a reason to keep Bowles if you do not think he is the long term answer. I said this before, If the Buccaneers keep Bowles they should be willing to commit to him for a minimum of four years. If they are not willing to do that then replace him now.

Are you willing to say that Bowles has a four year commitment?
_MB_ wrote: Sat Feb 04, 2023 3:14 pm We're getting a whole new offensive coaching staff. If we get that right, we just need enough players to be a Todd Bowles defense away from being right back into the mix.

I know that's overly optimistic, but this is literally year one of a whole new era of Bucs football and we aren't starting out with nothing.
True again. I am not a fan of a Todd Bowles defense. Was not in NY. Was not during the Super Bowl run. Did the Buccaneers win with it? Yes. I still prefer the Kiffin defense.
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Re: Time to blow it up

Post by Doctor »

Remember we held Mahomes to 9 points when you're watching next Sunday.
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Re: Time to blow it up

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Doctor wrote: Sat Feb 04, 2023 3:59 pm Remember we held Mahomes to 9 points when you're watching next Sunday.
Yep. I remember.

Don't forget the 48-21 win (12 points scored in the 4th quarter) that the Buccaneers held the Raiders to. That included 18 points on defensive scores. IMHO that was a better defense. Bigger point differential and more turnovers created. One of the Raiders 6 points came on a blocked punt returned for a TD as well (so that was not on the defense).
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Re: Time to blow it up

Post by _MB_ »

13F11B wrote: Sat Feb 04, 2023 4:06 pm
Doctor wrote: Sat Feb 04, 2023 3:59 pm Remember we held Mahomes to 9 points when you're watching next Sunday.
Yep. I remember.

Don't forget the 48-21 win (12 points scored in the 4th quarter) that the Buccaneers held the Raiders to. That included 18 points on defensive scores. IMHO that was a better defense. Bigger point differential and more turnovers created. One of the Raiders 6 points came on a blocked punt returned for a TD as well (so that was not on the defense).
Show me the coach running the Tampa 2
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Re: Time to blow it up

Post by 13F11B »

_MB_ wrote: Sat Feb 04, 2023 4:07 pm
13F11B wrote: Sat Feb 04, 2023 4:06 pm

Yep. I remember.

Don't forget the 48-21 win (12 points scored in the 4th quarter) that the Buccaneers held the Raiders to. That included 18 points on defensive scores. IMHO that was a better defense. Bigger point differential and more turnovers created. One of the Raiders 6 points came on a blocked punt returned for a TD as well (so that was not on the defense).
Show me the coach running the Tampa 2
I suspect that Kiffin would have adjusted his scheme and I was not making an argument about the scheme. Football evolves or we would not see several of the QBs currently considered top QBs even playing in the NFL. Mahommes and Allen would have been late round picks. Jackson would have been asked to convert to a different position. I like the demeanor of Kiffin's defense. I do not like the demeanor of a Bowles defense. Again, personal preference. You can have yours. I am not trying to invalidate your opinion.
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Re: Time to blow it up

Post by Doctor »

13F11B wrote: Sat Feb 04, 2023 4:06 pm
Doctor wrote: Sat Feb 04, 2023 3:59 pm Remember we held Mahomes to 9 points when you're watching next Sunday.
Yep. I remember.

Don't forget the 48-21 win (12 points scored in the 4th quarter) that the Buccaneers held the Raiders to. That included 18 points on defensive scores. IMHO that was a better defense. Bigger point differential and more turnovers created. One of the Raiders 6 points came on a blocked punt returned for a TD as well (so that was not on the defense).
Also helped that we had the guy who created their playbook.

Mahomes to 9 >
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Re: Time to blow it up

Post by MJW »

_MB_ wrote: Sat Feb 04, 2023 3:14 pm You don't just run down to the head coach store and pick up a head coach.

We're getting a whole new offensive coaching staff. If we get that right, we just need enough players to be a Todd Bowles defense away from being right back into the mix.

I know that's overly optimistic, but this is literally year one of a whole new era of Bucs football and we aren't starting out with nothing.
No, we're starting out with an awful head coach, an incredibly thin roster, no quarterback, and Negative $50 Million to build with.

If our goal is winning the NFC South with 8 wins again, I agree, we're right back in the mix...maybe...if a lot of things go right.
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Re: Time to blow it up

Post by Puss in Boots »

Doctor wrote: Sat Feb 04, 2023 6:12 pm
Mahomes to 9 >
Leaving Kupp wide open > Mahomes to 9
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Re: Time to blow it up

Post by Doctor »

Not sure what's more obnoxious, your sig or your takes.
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Re: Time to blow it up

Post by King Bootz »

Doctor wrote: Sun Feb 05, 2023 10:21 am Not sure what's more obnoxious, your sig or your takes.
NY is simply....obnoxious as it is.
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Re: Time to blow it up

Post by 13F11B »

Doctor wrote: Sat Feb 04, 2023 6:12 pm
13F11B wrote: Sat Feb 04, 2023 4:06 pm

Yep. I remember.

Don't forget the 48-21 win (12 points scored in the 4th quarter) that the Buccaneers held the Raiders to. That included 18 points on defensive scores. IMHO that was a better defense. Bigger point differential and more turnovers created. One of the Raiders 6 points came on a blocked punt returned for a TD as well (so that was not on the defense).
Also helped that we had the guy who created their playbook.

Mahomes to 9 >
Probably better to compare both defenses over the season than the one game.
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