Should Bowles and Leftwich be fired?

[MJW]

The real question people have is how much did Bruce Arians affect the outcome. Many doubted Arians when he claimed Leftwhich called the plays, developed the game plan, etc. I think given the results this year that is a fair question. In reality, this was not all Leftwhich's fault but he failed to adjust and grow the offense over the course of the season.

I think if Leftwich had AB, Gronk, Jensen, and Marpet he would have had another successful season.

He made everything look more difficult for Tom Brady that it ever has been in his career.
Our wide receivers had the least degree of separation in the league according to the analytics. You know, one of the best duos in the NFL?
Our run game, even when well blocked, never caught anyone off guard.
He refused to help out our liability left tackle, even has he was destroyed week after week.
We consistently ran the same plays each week even when they weren't working (count the screens against Dallas.)
None of our young talent on offense developed over the course of the season. White was good but never improved. Otton was awful. Goedeke never got one bit better. And after 2 years learning from Lefty, Trask still looks like it's his first preseason game. Oh, and we pulled the plug on Jaelon Darden mid-season. Not one offensive youngster improved this year. Not one.
And we set an NFL record by not converting one 3rd down of 11+ yards all season.

Miss me with this "bad hand" bullshit. Either because he's not doing the homework, or because he's stubborn, or because he simply lacks the vision necessary to coordinate an offense on his own, he was a joke.

[Doctor]

Hell know no fury...

[Snake]

Leftwich is trash and Jason Licht agreed.

Oh no, what will Doctor do?

[Doctor]

God bless sports, where everyone is either trash or treasure.

[Buc2]

God bless sports, where everyone is either trash or treasure.

In some cases, it is what it is. If it looks like a turd and smells like a turd it is a turd.

[Selmon Rules]

God bless sports, where everyone is either trash or treasure.

In some cases, it is what it is. If it looks like a turd and smells like a turd it is a turd.

He was a turd here but somewhere else, with different circumstances, he may be fertilizer

Who knows??

[Nobody]

Only in Buc-land can you...

* Regress catastrophically while...

* Reversing (or ignoring) clearly, successful trends in play-calling models (1st down passing %, play-action passing %, you don't need to establish the run to successfully PA-pass, 3rd and short conversions via running game wrinkles and tendency-breakers) to 1990 standards. Then when asked about those things scoff proudly.

* Have your Redzone Tight and abundance of 2nd & long (you're in "& long" because your prolific number of reduced formation, no horizontal set-dressing, run plays on 1st down failed...yet again) sniffed out or actually called out, and then sniffed out, by ILBs and Safeties.

* Have THE LOWEST Play-Action pass % in the league despite the greatest PA QB of all time; 41 out of 41 of QBs with 200 Drop Backs.

* Have the highest % of perfectly covered pass plays in the NFL (and way more than the median) which is correlated to our cataclysmic drop in 3rd and long conversion rate.

* Have a staggering number of Screen Targets yet have your primary receivers of them sit at bottom tier in Yards/Route Run on those Screens. Godwin # 1 Screen Targets NFL and a terrible 2.58 Y/RR (# 36 NFL). Fournette # 11 Screen Target and a terrible 2.89 YRR (# 27 NFL...massively inflated by one play or it would be near the bottom). White # 35 Screen Target and a terrible 1.02 YRR (# 80 NFL). Gage # 77 Screen Target and a terrible 0.66 YRR (# 97 NFL)

* Have the 30th least efficient running game (DVOA), one of the worst at converting, and be the worst in nearly every gross Rushing stat.

* Have a converted, small school RT playing LG (over a much better player) for nearly the first half of the season and not perpetually game plan around that offense-murdering deficiency.

* Get your ass handed to you on offense twice in a row by two teams that have either waved the white flag or are more injury-riddled on defense than should actually be possible.


Only in Buc-land can this happen and somehow you have a contingent of fans and media personalities blame others for your failures. Byron Leftwich is this year's Jameis Winston. He just needs more time.

[Buc2]

Only in Buc-land can you...

* Regress catastrophically while...

* Reversing (or ignoring) clearly, successful trends in play-calling models (1st down passing %, play-action passing %, you don't need to establish the run to successfully PA-pass, 3rd and short conversions via running game wrinkles and tendency-breakers) to 1990 standards. Then when asked about those things scoff proudly.

* Have your Redzone Tight and abundance of 2nd & long (you're in "& long" because your prolific number of reduced formation, no horizontal set-dressing, run plays on 1st down failed...yet again) sniffed out or actually called out, and then sniffed out, by ILBs and Safeties.

* Have THE LOWEST Play-Action pass % in the league despite the greatest PA QB of all time; 41 out of 41 of QBs with 200 Drop Backs.

* Have the highest % of perfectly covered pass plays in the NFL (and way more than the median) which is correlated to our cataclysmic drop in 3rd and long conversion rate.

* Have a staggering number of Screen Targets yet have your primary receivers of them sit at bottom tier in Yards/Route Run on those Screens. Godwin # 1 Screen Targets NFL and a terrible 2.58 Y/RR (# 36 NFL). Fournette # 11 Screen Target and a terrible 2.89 YRR (# 27 NFL...massively inflated by one play or it would be near the bottom). White # 35 Screen Target and a terrible 1.02 YRR (# 80 NFL). Gage # 77 Screen Target and a terrible 0.66 YRR (# 97 NFL)

* Have the 30th least efficient running game (DVOA), one of the worst at converting, and be the worst in nearly every gross Rushing stat.

* Have a converted, small school RT playing LG (over a much better player) for nearly the first half of the season and not perpetually game plan around that offense-murdering deficiency.

* Get your ass handed to you on offense twice in a row by two teams that have either waved the white flag or are more injury-riddled on defense than should actually be possible.


Only in Buc-land can this happen and somehow you have a contingent of fans and media personalities blame others for your failures. Byron Leftwich is this year's Jameis Winston. He just needs more time.

This is what happens when you disdain and totally ignore analytics. Being stubborn and old school may seem like endearing traits, but it won’t win you football games at this level.

[Primeminister]

Only in Buc-land can you...

* Regress catastrophically while...

* Reversing (or ignoring) clearly, successful trends in play-calling models (1st down passing %, play-action passing %, you don't need to establish the run to successfully PA-pass, 3rd and short conversions via running game wrinkles and tendency-breakers) to 1990 standards. Then when asked about those things scoff proudly.

* Have your Redzone Tight and abundance of 2nd & long (you're in "& long" because your prolific number of reduced formation, no horizontal set-dressing, run plays on 1st down failed...yet again) sniffed out or actually called out, and then sniffed out, by ILBs and Safeties.

* Have THE LOWEST Play-Action pass % in the league despite the greatest PA QB of all time; 41 out of 41 of QBs with 200 Drop Backs.

* Have the highest % of perfectly covered pass plays in the NFL (and way more than the median) which is correlated to our cataclysmic drop in 3rd and long conversion rate.

* Have a staggering number of Screen Targets yet have your primary receivers of them sit at bottom tier in Yards/Route Run on those Screens. Godwin # 1 Screen Targets NFL and a terrible 2.58 Y/RR (# 36 NFL). Fournette # 11 Screen Target and a terrible 2.89 YRR (# 27 NFL...massively inflated by one play or it would be near the bottom). White # 35 Screen Target and a terrible 1.02 YRR (# 80 NFL). Gage # 77 Screen Target and a terrible 0.66 YRR (# 97 NFL)

* Have the 30th least efficient running game (DVOA), one of the worst at converting, and be the worst in nearly every gross Rushing stat.

* Have a converted, small school RT playing LG (over a much better player) for nearly the first half of the season and not perpetually game plan around that offense-murdering deficiency.

* Get your ass handed to you on offense twice in a row by two teams that have either waved the white flag or are more injury-riddled on defense than should actually be possible.


Only in Buc-land can this happen and somehow you have a contingent of fans and media personalities blame others for your failures. Byron Leftwich is this year's Jameis Winston. He just needs more time.

Thank you. That ineptitude cannot be explained through simply saying “injuries”. I like Leftwich, but he has proven to be a shit OC.

[Doctor]

Only in Buc-land can you...

* Regress catastrophically while...

* Reversing (or ignoring) clearly, successful trends in play-calling models (1st down passing %, play-action passing %, you don't need to establish the run to successfully PA-pass, 3rd and short conversions via running game wrinkles and tendency-breakers) to 1990 standards. Then when asked about those things scoff proudly.

* Have your Redzone Tight and abundance of 2nd & long (you're in "& long" because your prolific number of reduced formation, no horizontal set-dressing, run plays on 1st down failed...yet again) sniffed out or actually called out, and then sniffed out, by ILBs and Safeties.

* Have THE LOWEST Play-Action pass % in the league despite the greatest PA QB of all time; 41 out of 41 of QBs with 200 Drop Backs.

* Have the highest % of perfectly covered pass plays in the NFL (and way more than the median) which is correlated to our cataclysmic drop in 3rd and long conversion rate.

* Have a staggering number of Screen Targets yet have your primary receivers of them sit at bottom tier in Yards/Route Run on those Screens. Godwin # 1 Screen Targets NFL and a terrible 2.58 Y/RR (# 36 NFL). Fournette # 11 Screen Target and a terrible 2.89 YRR (# 27 NFL...massively inflated by one play or it would be near the bottom). White # 35 Screen Target and a terrible 1.02 YRR (# 80 NFL). Gage # 77 Screen Target and a terrible 0.66 YRR (# 97 NFL)

* Have the 30th least efficient running game (DVOA), one of the worst at converting, and be the worst in nearly every gross Rushing stat.

* Have a converted, small school RT playing LG (over a much better player) for nearly the first half of the season and not perpetually game plan around that offense-murdering deficiency.

* Get your ass handed to you on offense twice in a row by two teams that have either waved the white flag or are more injury-riddled on defense than should actually be possible.


Only in Buc-land can this happen and somehow you have a contingent of fans and media personalities blame others for your failures. Byron Leftwich is this year's Jameis Winston. He just needs more time.

You're forcing this situation into an unnecessary binary where there doesn't need to be one. Absolutely no one is arguing the offense didn't regress. No one. But you are insincerely trying to merge accepting that with accepting your narrative.

We know exactly what this offense is, what it can do, and what it can't do. When we have an OL that can hold up long enough for in-sync QB-WR biscuits it's an offense that has finished at or near the top of the league repeatedly. But it needs those big shots.

The interior of the OL was absolute trash this year. Brady and his WRs seemed estranged and each suffered from their own yips. Point blank too many points of failures.

Now some OC's do run offenses that lend themselves to be more easily moldable. This is not one of those offenses. It's a very rigid offense. You can decry that as some sort of cardinal sin, but I couldn't care less. I get that there are always new designer offenses out there and the grass is always greener, but in my time I've learned there are many ways to win in this league. I'll take the high risk of a low floor with the high reward of 30ppg when we're clicking. Doubly so when we have the perfect complimentary defense. But that wasn't the case this season.

So they were left with two options
1) Fix the points of failures
2) Revamp the entire offense

It seems Bowles (and @Nobody ) was pushing for the latter but with his job on the line, Lefty went with the former and it cost him. Maybe he felt he was too limited by his personnel, his immobile QB, his OL depth, his own creativity, or a combination of all of it. Either way, the fantasy that you can just draw your way out of a bad situation is severely overblown. See Sean McVay. So instead, Lefty went the other way.
Byron was betting he could coach up or find the right combination of OL up front (he couldn't/didn't). He was betting, like in 2020, the QBs and WRs would eventually lock in together (they didn't). He was betting Tom Brady would be accurate Tom who wouldn't float INTs into the endzone (he was wrong).

So yes... OTHER REASONS are what put us in a bad situation... Leftwich's handling of a bad situation is what lead to his firing.

And yes, people can absolutely debate the merits of all this. Personally, I think Bowles fired Lefty for making his unsuccessful (and seemingly insubordinate?) decision to repair rather than revamp. And I get him wanting to hitch his wagon to any of many other tantalizing options that are on the market right now.

I get that we are hurt. I get that we are disappointed. But the idea that Byron took some great offense and ruined it because he is some worthless piece of shit who owes his entire career to Arians who, for some unexplained reason, decided to prop him up with years of lies is the kind of shit I hear from my teenage nephew.

[Buc2]

@Doctor, your narrative is no less speculation than anyone else’s, including @Nobody’s. Based on anyone’s eyeball test, the offense failed. The man most responsible for that failure was shown the door. I liked Leftwich the man. But not so much Leftwich the OC. Excuses be damned.

[Selmon Rules]

Once it becomes obvious that what you're doing ain't working, you have to change what you're doing. There has to be a plan B, C, and some times plan D

We seem to have been stuck on plan A for the entire season

[Sdbucs]

Watching these other offenses just makes it so obvious!

Put Brady Evans Godwin on one of these teams with their playbooks, big success

Our play calling was dogshit

Are any of these successful playoff offenses hiking out of shotgun every single play all 4 quarters??? No

[MJW]

Watching these other offenses just makes it so obvious!

That was my feeling all season.

We can talk about
Play Calling
Play Sequencing
Play Design
Preparation
Exploiting Matchups
Taking what the defense gives us
Or anything else

But ultimately...everything we tried to do on offense looked so. goddamn. hard. And not in the way it looks hard for a team without talent. In a way that looked like no matter how much talent we had, it wouldn't have mattered.

[13F11B]

I get that we are hurt. I get that we are disappointed. But the idea that Byron took some great offense and ruined it because he is some worthless piece of shit who owes his entire career to Arians who, for some unexplained reason, decided to prop him up with years of lies is the kind of shit I hear from my teenage nephew.

We do not know what the real story is.

The facts are the offense under Leftwhich (w/ Arians as HC) looked vastly different than the offense under Leftwhich (w/o Arians as HC). We have rumors that Arians would modify the gameplan that Leftwhich and Brady worked on all week in 2020 and 2021. That clearly did not happen this year. Was that the issue? Was the issue that Leftwhich did not get guidance from Arians on the sideline during games? Who knows. The only FACT we have is the offense looked like dog shit when Leftwhich was w/o Arians on the sideline.

[Doctor]

The irony of the "red pen the gameplan" rumors (which BA dismisses) is that it was supposedly Brady who "hated" them and got BA fired over them, not Lefty.

[Nobody]

The irony of the "red pen the gameplan" rumors (which BA dismisses) is that it was supposedly Brady who "hated" them and got BA fired over them, not Lefty.

Which is why relying on mostly or wholly extrapolating on (a) rumors and/or (b) what Brady says to the media and/or (c) what Arians says to the media is a terrible way to figure out what was happening in the course of the last years.

Who knows the veracity of (a)? People post clickbait, unsubstantiated nonsense...CONSTANTLY. People write garbage on social media and the lie gets halfway around the world before the truth gets out of bed.

(b) Brady is from "The Belichick School" of press conferences. He says virtually nothing of consequence. Boiler plate, milquetoast, say-nothing statements left and right. You could have a puppet up there and it would be as insightful or revealing (this is intended).

(c) Arians, on the other hand, is a combination of both (a) and (b). He attempts to control/arrest narrative and/or "send messages" all the time through media. Some of it is clearly untrue (as it directly disputes realities on the ground that we can substantiate)...some of it is partially untrue...some of it is "Tea Leaf Reading" and impossible to verify. At other times, Arians will go full-on "give them nothing" mode like Belichick and Brady...and that might be message-sending or message-obfuscating. Its difficult to discern. As "straight-shooting" as Arians appears to be behind closed doors/1v1, he's the absolute inverse in his media-facing persona (again, this is intended...he's not stupid).

++++++++++++++

TLDR - No one knows anything about "red pens and gameplans" or "secret rift between Brady and Arians." We have clue zero on that stuff. All we know for sure is:

* Brady was never in an offense that read Hi to Low before. All of his priors were Low to Hi. That is a substantial learning curve. They (Brady, Arians, et al) were able to resolve that massive change in an incredibly short window. So their working relationship had to be at least functional.

Brady's prior offenses featured some Dagger concepts (Y Post/Seam clearing out for Z Dig behind it) and Hi-Lo Series (combo routes from reduced Stack that create a two-level read), but it (a) wasn't the basic substrate (with enormously prolific usage rate) of the offenses he ran and (b) the Y's role featuring an array of Option Routes (both generally and particularly in their prolifically used Dagger concept) was new to Brady.

* If they didn't get along there is no chance that doesn't get out. None. They had to (bare minimum) get along.

* The offense play sequencing and certain usage rates changed immediately and dramatically after the Bye Week year 1 (2020). There is also a case to be made for "things suddenly clicking" but that is at least some part Tea Leaf Reading. While they were relatively sputtering (inconsistent, sometimes shut down, conversion rates relatively poor) prior to the Bye, they all 3 (a) exploded post-Bye while they (b) became very consistent and (c) very efficient. The post-Bye changes are abundantly clear and have been documented (by myself in both metrics and tape breakdown and by plenty of others). Those Year 1 Post-Bye changes overwhelmingly carried through to year 2 (where we were consistently DVOA # 1 offense in the NFL...despite Gronk missing tons of action). Those Year 1 Post-Bye changes did not carry through to year 3.

[Doctor]

I love that your TLDR is just as long as the original. And I actually completely agree with your post too. Look at that.

[Primeminister]

I love that your TLDR is just as long as the original. And I actually completely agree with your post too. Look at that.

I laughed at that as well. It was an excellent post as usual, but I chuckled.

[Buc2]

I love that your TLDR is just as long as the original. And I actually completely agree with your post too. Look at that.

I laughed at that as well. It was an excellent post as usual, but I chuckled.

Yep. Dude got into his TL:DR and it ended up sending him off on another tangent. Still a good read, though.

[Nobody]

“TLDR was TLDR” is the name of my Substack.

[Buc2]

During an appearance on WDAE Radio this week, Rick Stroud of the Tampa Bay Times reported that Arians was, “Not happy. Very unhappy. Extremely unhappy.”

“Having had some interaction with him about it. . . he’s disappointed. You know, he’s disappointed,” Stroud said, per JoeBucsFan.com. “I guess that’s the biggest thing. You know, he wanted Todd [Bowles] to have this opportunity. He wanted to keep this staff together. He wanted these [coaching] families to be together; many of them have another year on their contracts.

“Many of them thought they would be here as long as Todd is the head coach, were told as much, and that’s not the case. And so, he’s hurt by it. I don’t know if you’re going to see him around much next year.”

https://www.si.com/nfl/2023/01/25/bruce ... ich-report

[Doctor]

Not surprising he's upset that it didn't work out, his big three are Trust, Loyalty, and Respect. To be fair, from everything that's come out it does sound like Bowles showed tons of trust and loyalty to the offense and they let him down.

[acmillis]

reportedly, Bowles got the greenlight to shitcan Lefty mid-season and didn't...nothing improved...he gon'. Feelings should not be hurt here.