Snake wrote: ↑Fri Jan 13, 2023 10:19 am
If the draft is a total crapshoot, let the janitor throw darts at the draft board.
Lol!
It's just...not that complicated. Egads.
To put it simply:
Let's say you only have 2 picks in the draft, a 1st and a 4th. Just to keep it simple.
You evaluate every player in the draft and assign them each a grade, 1-10.
You decide you will walk away from this draft with a quarterback and a running back (approaching the draft this way is a mistake, but that's another topic.)
Still with me?
It's your first round pick. You have a quarterback available you rate as an 8, and a running back available you rate as a 9. Simple, right, you take the running back. Done and done. He's the better prospect.
Well, yeah. If you're an idiot, or Dave Gettleman (but I repeat myself.) If you're not an idiot, you also look at your possible options in the 4th round. Huh, it looks like you expect running backs to be available you have rated as 7s But the best quarterbacks are rated as 5s.
We'll put away all the stuff about positional VALUE here (which ALSO hurts the running back), or the way the game is evolving. We'll just talk about getting the most bang for your buck by understanding positional SCARCITY.
Take the RB in the 1st and the QB in the 4th, and you've added 14 points to your roster.
Take the QB in the 1st and the RB in the 4th, and you've added 15 points to your roster.
Assuming you've baked in all factors you could about the prospects into that 1-10 grade, the second choice helps your team more. And this is basically the scenario every year. QBs graded as starter caliber (or better) go in the first round. Usually HIGH in the first round. Meanwhile, quality running backs are ALWAYS available later. ALWAYS.
Throw in other factors, like -
- How easily a good OL can make an average running back look great.
- How even top running backs in the league rarely see 70% of their team's carries in this era (Derrick Henry, in his 2,000 yard season, accounted for 78% of his team's non-QB rushes, and that's a HUGE outlier.)
- How the rules in this era now encourage the pass to set up the run.
- How many modern offenses manufacture "rushing" yards throw high percentage horizontal passing.
ETC
Taking a running back high, even a good one, is a mistake.