Finding Brady's Replacement: Jayden Daniels?

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Snake
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Finding Brady's Replacement: Jayden Daniels?

Post by Snake »

This post will be long. Probably in multiple parts for readability. May do another 1-2 players as the draft gets closer and we have a better idea about things.

Let's get something out of the way first:

Brady -> Gone.
Gabbert -> 33 y/o. Pending UFA. He's bad. If he's the starting QB going into the season, we're fucked.
Trask -> Under contract for two more seasons. Will be 25 y/o without a single NFL snap. Pencil him in as anticipated TC competition.


Let's talk Jayden Daniels. Aka JD5.

I learned of Jayden Daniels at the end of his senior year in high school. I keep tabs on the Arizona State football program (ASU) and was surprised to discover the #2 dual-threat QB in the nation signed with ASU. He had offers from UCLA, USC, Utah, and supposedly Alabama.

ASU offered something all schools except Utah didn't: A legitimate shot at starting as a true freshman.

JD5 won the QB battle during training camp. He also weighed in at 160 lbs at said training camp. Betraying his physical immaturity. He had what one ASU reporter called "generational talent." With his pocket sense, escapability, and decision making being standout traits.

And to be clear, this was generational ASU talent. Mark Malone was the last ASU QB drafted in the first round. in 1980.

With this true freshman QB at the helm. The Devils were set to make a run in Edwards' second season. Or at least be interesting.
Last edited by Snake on Mon Dec 19, 2022 12:04 am, edited 7 times in total.
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Re: Finding Brady's Replacement: Jayden Daniels?

Post by Snake »

True Freshman Season, the stats:

12 games started
8-4 record
17 TDs and 2 INTs
60% completions
3 TDs on the ground and 300~ yards.

What we learned:

Jayden Daniels protects the ball. There's pros and cons to this.
Jayden Daniels has a deep ball. Pretty important because he played with Brandon Aiyuk.
Jayden Daniels has ice in his veins.
The ASU line isn't super good.
Herm Edwards plays conservative football. Okay, this wasn’t new information.

Highlight of season: Jayden Daniels led his 5-5 and unranked ASU to an upset victory against #6 Oregon (9-1). Oregon was led by Justin Herbert.



Peep throws at 1:30. 6:36. 9:12.

you should hit open WRs deep. I won't fall in love with a guy who ONLY does that, like I did with Haskins. But this kid Daniels is not Jameis Winston. No scattershot deep balls.

ASU is on the upswing going into his sophomore season…
Last edited by Snake on Mon Dec 19, 2022 12:05 am, edited 5 times in total.
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Re: Finding Brady's Replacement: Jayden Daniels?

Post by Snake »

Until COVID.

Sophomore Season, aka a handful of whatever games:

JD5 and ASU only played 4 games. Went 2-2 with a 70-7 win against rival Arizona.

Daniels had 9 total TDs against 1 INT.

He supposedly gained 10 pounds.

There are rumors that Herm and the new OC aren't getting along during the truncated season.
Last edited by Snake on Sun Dec 18, 2022 11:53 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Finding Brady's Replacement: Jayden Daniels?

Post by Snake »

(I'll get into the actually scouting report soon. Just giving some important context here.)

Junior year, 2021. the season the Sun Devils were supposed to make a big leap and contend for the PAC-12 championship. Antonio Pierce was the ASU defensive coordinator and the head of recruiting since arriving with Herm. ASU put together its first top 25 recruiting class in a while. Our own Rachaad White transferred into ASU from junior college and took the feature back position. WR was weaker than previous years, but supposedly made up for with depth. O-line per the usual was a weak spot, but JD5's mobility was supposed to mitigate that.

Then disaster strikes. Right before the season, ASU is caught engaging in recruiting violations. Flying in HS players to Arizona during the "recruiting dead period." Having them bump into coach Herm Edwards while on campus and in weird places like stairwells. A recruit's plane ticket is discovered to be paid for by Jayden Daniels's mother. When confronted by this, his mother said her credit card was stolen online recently. only a 1 in 7 billion chance of that situation happening exactly that way…I digress. Three assistant coaches are put on administrative leave before the season. These young coaches were considered the lifeblood of the program and future stars in CFB. All hired at the recommendation of Antonio Pierce. Herm replaces them with old NFL buddies.

The team still eeked out an 8-5 season. Mostly on the legs of R. White. Daniels had a year of regression. 10 TDs, 10 INTs through the air. Heavy criticism from local press about the offense. Herm Edwards taking more control and not playing to Daniels's strengths. The 2nd year OC having open "philosophical issues" with Herm.

TLDR: All the coaches put on administrative leave get fired at the season's end. Antonio Pierce resigns and returns to the NFL before the NCAA hammer can come down. The 2nd year OC resigns.

Jayden Daniels - in an act of pure self-preservation - hits the transfer portal and kick starts a mass exodus from ASU. Jayden has offers from multiple SEC, B1G, and PAC-12 programs. He selects LSU. Herm Edwards gets fired mid-season the following season.

LSU up next.
Last edited by Snake on Sun Dec 18, 2022 11:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Finding Brady's Replacement: Jayden Daniels?

Post by Snake »

JD5 to LSU:

Brian Kelly circled JD5's name on the long list of QBs he had in his office in the Spring. He identified his guy. He eventually landed him (he usually does). and he was pretty sure JD5 would start the season at QB.

But this is Brian Kelly. No one is given anything in Brian Kelly's world. They have to earn it. Or think they did. It was a (supposedly) hotly contested battle that JD5 won the last week of the preseason.

Ever the game theorist, Kelly did not announce the team's QB starter until the morning of their season opener against FSU, because potential competitive advantage.

JD5 wanted to compete at the highest levels of the sport. He loved ASU for giving him a chance. but they no longer offered that chance, if they ever did. he also felt they failed to feature his game-breaking athleticism and lacked playmakers after his freshman season. LSU offered that, and more. Stability, resources, a national stage. LSU chose him, and ultimately he chose LSU.

He also supposedly showed up to LSU weighing 185 pounds with his goal weight being 200# by the season's start. He's listed at 200# on LSU's website. I must say, I don't believe it. lol. Definitely something he needs to deal with before draft day comes. Get the kid some mexican supplements.

Anyways, it's safe to say the LSU decision was mutually beneficial.

Team record: 9-4 with one still left to play. 6-2 in conference. Not bad for a first year coach and QB in the SEC.

JD5 stats:

Passing - 16 TDs, 3 INTs. 68% completions. 2774 yards.
Rushing - 11 TDs, 818 yards.

Season highlight: Barn burner against Alabama. LSU winning in first overtime by going for 2PT conversion after Bama scored TD first.



Peep the run at 9:48. Smooth.
Last edited by Snake on Sun Dec 18, 2022 10:34 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Finding Brady's Replacement: Jayden Daniels?

Post by Snake »

The actual scouting report coming next. Daniels personally stated areas for improvement upon arriving at LSU. he included footwork and progression speed. Indeed, his eyes could get a little sticky at ASU. and footwork led to balls sailed in the short and intermediate distances.
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Re: Finding Brady's Replacement: Jayden Daniels?

Post by Snake »

Let's look at some tools first. Before delving into the fine details.

Daniels is a long strider. He looks smooth and almost slow, like Kaepernick, but then you see him just running by people. He can make little cuts that make people look silly. He should make NFL LBs look pretty bad.

Rushing clip montage (warning, quite large)
► Show Spoiler
► Show Spoiler
► Show Spoiler
This one right here is where the kids post the fire emoji.
► Show Spoiler
This stuff begs questions. Is he holding on to the ball too long, is there people open but he can't see them, can he not anticipate? We will try to answer those questions.
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Snake
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Re: Finding Brady's Replacement: Jayden Daniels?

Post by Snake »

a couple deep balls

55 yards in the air. (true freshman here. he's increased maximum distance)
► Show Spoiler
30 yard sideline jump ball
► Show Spoiler
35 yard to the sideline with a small window
► Show Spoiler
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Re: Finding Brady's Replacement: Jayden Daniels?

Post by MJW »

What I Like:

- Love his decisiveness. Sees it and the ball is out.
- Really quick, compact delivery.
- Athleticism speaks for itself.

What I Don't:

- Footwork is not good, and this shows up on his deep balls, which risk hitting the Goodyear blimp.
- Rarely keeps his head up when he escapes the pocket.
- Accuracy is not consistent, probably due to that footwork. Receivers bail him out a lot. YAC left on the table. Receivers will get killed in the NFL.

He definitely has some traits and tools, and he's arriving at the right time for his skill set. The Lamar comp feels cheap, but it's probably the best one I've got.
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Re: Finding Brady's Replacement: Jayden Daniels?

Post by Phantom »

Meh I’m not a fan
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Re: Finding Brady's Replacement: Jayden Daniels?

Post by Snake »

Phantom wrote: Mon Dec 19, 2022 4:56 pm Meh I’m not a fan
That’s deep
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Re: Finding Brady's Replacement: Jayden Daniels?

Post by mdb1958 »

Draftbuzz has Jayden Daniels projected as a UDFA.
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Re: Finding Brady's Replacement: Jayden Daniels?

Post by Snake »

mdb1958 wrote: Mon Dec 19, 2022 5:13 pm Draftbuzz has Jayden Daniels projected as a UDFA.
Walter football has him from rounds 2 to 4
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Re: Finding Brady's Replacement: Jayden Daniels?

Post by Phantom »

mdb1958 wrote: Mon Dec 19, 2022 5:13 pm Draftbuzz has Jayden Daniels projected as a UDFA.
That’s because he sucks..


But Snake think he’s awesome! :lol:
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Re: Finding Brady's Replacement: Jayden Daniels?

Post by Snake »

Phantom wrote: Mon Dec 19, 2022 5:24 pm
mdb1958 wrote: Mon Dec 19, 2022 5:13 pm Draftbuzz has Jayden Daniels projected as a UDFA.
That’s because he sucks..


But Snake think he’s awesome! :lol:
I see tools in all QBs. The question is whether they translate and what can be realistically unlocked with superior coaching and time.
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Re: Finding Brady's Replacement: Jayden Daniels?

Post by Cheb »

I really like Jayden Daniels as a prospect. He makes smart decisions and he makes them quickly, he has wheels for days, and he can execute against top competition.

What does bother me is that he's a bit of a dink-and-dunker. That could have been due to the LSU offense, because he can sling it when needed, but it happened so regularly that I wonder if he won't be a checkdown champion as a pro.

I would draft Jaylen Daniels in the fourth, for sure. I'd also be looking at Henson Hooker, who if not for his knee injury would have been selected in the first two rounds. I'd also take a deeper look at Max Duggan, who I haven't seen play much but he was very impressive in the Big 12 championship.

There's plenty of midround talent at QB in this draft, imo.

Edit: wrong Malik Hooker instead of Henson Hooker. Whoopsie.
Last edited by Cheb on Wed Dec 21, 2022 12:51 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Finding Brady's Replacement: Jayden Daniels?

Post by Snake »

Cheb wrote: Tue Dec 20, 2022 10:17 pm What does bother me is that he's a bit of a dink-and-dunker. That could have been due to the LSU offense, because he can sling it when needed, but it happened so regularly that I wonder if he won't be a checkdown champion as a pro.
In watching the film, I noticed a whole lot of this. It likely contributed to the low interception numbers throughout his college career.

I also think it was exacerbated during his LSU senior.

Here's the film from a game during his junior year at ASU.



I do think there's concerns about the post-snap processor, which could explain check down tendencies. Look at the throw at 0:47. That is probably picked in the NFL if it isn't out a millisecond sooner. That USC defender almost had it. The throw on the wheel route at 1:05. It's a bad throw, but one can argue the ball should've been out a touch sooner. He waited for him to flip his hips and become mostly open.

Anyways. He has easy velocity to the short/intermediate. Easy compact release (as @MJW mentioned). But it's almost too easy. he gets sloppy there and sails balls. see interception at 2:27.
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Re: Finding Brady's Replacement: Jayden Daniels?

Post by The Outsider »

I will accept nothing other than an unknown late round rookie who takes over for an injured Drew Bledsoe. You have to do these things right.
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Re: Finding Brady's Replacement: Jayden Daniels?

Post by Kona »

Definitely need someone to compete with Trask. Wouldn’t mind wouldn’t mind spending a 3rd/4th on someone, that way if they both suck we’re likely picking early enough in round 1 the following draft. If one makes do, then great.
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Re: Finding Brady's Replacement: Jayden Daniels?

Post by Buc2 »

Snake wrote: Sun Dec 18, 2022 10:16 pm JD5 to LSU:

Brian Kelly circled JD5's name on the long list of QBs he had in his office in the Spring. He identified his guy. He eventually landed him (he usually does). and he was pretty sure JD5 would start the season at QB.

But this is Brian Kelly. No one is given anything in Brian Kelly's world. They have to earn it. Or think they did. It was a (supposedly) hotly contested battle that JD5 won the last week of the preseason.

Ever the game theorist, Kelly did not announce the team's QB starter until the morning of their season opener against FSU, because potential competitive advantage.

JD5 wanted to compete at the highest levels of the sport. He loved ASU for giving him a chance. but they no longer offered that chance, if they ever did. he also felt they failed to feature his game-breaking athleticism and lacked playmakers after his freshman season. LSU offered that, and more. Stability, resources, a national stage. LSU chose him, and ultimately he chose LSU.

He also supposedly showed up to LSU weighing 185 pounds with his goal weight being 200# by the season's start. He's listed at 200# on LSU's website. I must say, I don't believe it. lol. Definitely something he needs to deal with before draft day comes. Get the kid some mexican supplements.

Anyways, it's safe to say the LSU decision was mutually beneficial.

Team record: 9-4 with one still left to play. 6-2 in conference. Not bad for a first year coach and QB in the SEC.

JD5 stats:

Passing - 16 TDs, 3 INTs. 68% completions. 2774 yards.
Rushing - 11 TDs, 818 yards.

Season highlight: Barn burner against Alabama. LSU winning in first overtime by going for 2PT conversion after Bama scored TD first.



Peep the run at 9:48. Smooth.
Daniels must have something against 6th ranked teams. In your first video, Oregon was ranked 6th when he beat them. Same with 'Bama in this one.
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Re: Finding Brady's Replacement: Jayden Daniels?

Post by Snake »

Buc2 wrote: Wed Dec 21, 2022 11:45 am
Snake wrote: Sun Dec 18, 2022 10:16 pm JD5 to LSU:

Brian Kelly circled JD5's name on the long list of QBs he had in his office in the Spring. He identified his guy. He eventually landed him (he usually does). and he was pretty sure JD5 would start the season at QB.

But this is Brian Kelly. No one is given anything in Brian Kelly's world. They have to earn it. Or think they did. It was a (supposedly) hotly contested battle that JD5 won the last week of the preseason.

Ever the game theorist, Kelly did not announce the team's QB starter until the morning of their season opener against FSU, because potential competitive advantage.

JD5 wanted to compete at the highest levels of the sport. He loved ASU for giving him a chance. but they no longer offered that chance, if they ever did. he also felt they failed to feature his game-breaking athleticism and lacked playmakers after his freshman season. LSU offered that, and more. Stability, resources, a national stage. LSU chose him, and ultimately he chose LSU.

He also supposedly showed up to LSU weighing 185 pounds with his goal weight being 200# by the season's start. He's listed at 200# on LSU's website. I must say, I don't believe it. lol. Definitely something he needs to deal with before draft day comes. Get the kid some mexican supplements.

Anyways, it's safe to say the LSU decision was mutually beneficial.

Team record: 9-4 with one still left to play. 6-2 in conference. Not bad for a first year coach and QB in the SEC.

JD5 stats:

Passing - 16 TDs, 3 INTs. 68% completions. 2774 yards.
Rushing - 11 TDs, 818 yards.

Season highlight: Barn burner against Alabama. LSU winning in first overtime by going for 2PT conversion after Bama scored TD first.



Peep the run at 9:48. Smooth.
Daniels must have something against 6th ranked teams. In your first video, Oregon was ranked 6th when he beat them. Same with 'Bama in this one.
Nice catch. If nothing else the kid rise to the occasion. There’s a lot of stuff that needs to be worked out. Somethings teams might consider to be unfixable. But he has ice in his veins, and he’s got wheels, and he has an arm.
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Re: Finding Brady's Replacement: Jayden Daniels?

Post by Kona »

Daniels returning to LSU next season.
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Re: Finding Brady's Replacement: Jayden Daniels?

Post by Snake »

Well fuck
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Re: Finding Brady's Replacement: Jayden Daniels?

Post by Snake »

Probably the right move though. I’m sure Brian Kelly told him they will get him some more NFL type looks. Refine his approach.

It also means he wasn’t going in the first two rounds.
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Re: Finding Brady's Replacement: Jayden Daniels?

Post by Phantom »

Yes!
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Re: Finding Brady's Replacement: Jayden Daniels?

Post by Snake »

I typed up a little post, but I lost it.

In short, Jayden Daniels is kicking ass. Something like 30 total touchdowns against five turnovers. Yards per attempt 11+.

Third in Heisman odds.

I plan on checking out the film in a little bit more detail in the coming weeks
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Re: Finding Brady's Replacement: Jayden Daniels?

Post by Grahamburn »

Snake wrote: Sun Oct 22, 2023 9:42 pm I typed up a little post, but I lost it.

In short, Jayden Daniels is kicking ass. Something like 30 total touchdowns against five turnovers. Yards per attempt 11+.

Third in Heisman odds.

I plan on checking out the film in a little bit more detail in the coming weeks
QB feeling like a pretty big need at the moment. We're going to be looking into all these guys.
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Re: Finding Brady's Replacement: Jayden Daniels?

Post by Nobody »

Snake wrote: Sun Oct 22, 2023 9:42 pm I typed up a little post, but I lost it.

In short, Jayden Daniels is kicking ass. Something like 30 total touchdowns against five turnovers. Yards per attempt 11+.

Third in Heisman odds.

I plan on checking out the film in a little bit more detail in the coming weeks
Out of all of the alleged high-end QB prospects, McCarthy, Daniels, and Nix are performing the best against the blitz. Whenever I evaluate QB prospects I look at:

* How does his pre-snap process manifest in post-snap play? Is he reading coverage correctly > prioritizing the correct read progression > going to his first read with anticipation and ball placement for success at a high rate?

* Can he get from 2nd to 3rd in his progression with speed and efficacy? How about 3rd to 4th?

* Ball placement and throwing with trajectory and anticipation or just sloppily jamming throws into nigh-insurmountable windows, typically late, due to arm talent?

* Is the offense he plays in, and the separation generated by the talent, a reasonable facsimile of what things will look like at the next level?

* Can he handle both Pressure and pressure? Does his cognitive loop, fundamentals, and poise wilt or excel/crystalize?

* Does he have a feel in the pocket and can he subtly manipulate it to reduce pressure while maintaining his progressions? Or does he generate Pressure and turn Pressure into Sacks because of poor pocket feel?

++++++++++

After those six things, I'll start looking at the other tangibles and intangibles. But I need to see evidence of those six things before I'm interested in looking further at the prospect.

There will be a few, freakish anomalies that you'll have to basically rebuild the model for, but that is the general template for me.

This will probably be the first year in a while I do a deep dive into NFL draft generally and QBs specifically. I'll take a good look at this kid.
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Re: Finding Brady's Replacement: Jayden Daniels?

Post by Grahamburn »

Oh goody gumdrops. Welcome back!
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Re: Finding Brady's Replacement: Jayden Daniels?

Post by Buc2 »

I have to ask you, @Nobody, what do you do for a living? If it's not film-study/talent evaluation for some college-level or above team, you may have missed your calling. :D
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Re: Finding Brady's Replacement: Jayden Daniels?

Post by Nobody »

Buc2 wrote: Thu Oct 26, 2023 8:59 am I have to ask you, @Nobody, what do you do for a living? If it's not film-study/talent evaluation for some college-level or above team, you may have missed your calling. :D
My story is pretty straight-forward. Marry ball sports (systems) + grappling (systems) + rock climbing (systems) to natural science (Biology - systems) and forensic engineering (systems). No film study or talent evaluation for any team or outlet. Just a leisure pursuit. It makes sense for someone with my cognitive orientation and interests.

Anyway...I'm not interested in talking about myself on the internet.

I'll post what I find when I look into these QBs (as time allows; life has been excessively busy in the last years and its unclear if that will let up).
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Re: Finding Brady's Replacement: Jayden Daniels?

Post by Snake »

50 TDs, if you include the rushing TDs.

Snake ahead of the curve, as usual.
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Re: Finding Brady's Replacement: Jayden Daniels?

Post by Grahamburn »

He has looked incredible.
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Re: Finding Brady's Replacement: Jayden Daniels?

Post by Xandtar »

Yes, he has.

Too bad he'll be gone before we can draft him.

Oh well.
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Re: Finding Brady's Replacement: Jayden Daniels?

Post by Snake »

Xandtar wrote: Sun Nov 26, 2023 9:32 pm Yes, he has.

Too bad he'll be gone before we can draft him.

Oh well.
You really think he’ll be drafted in the top 8?

His issues are still visible on film. He’s just in a super charged offense and the perfect college QB.
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